(08-12-2013 12:05 AM)Brian Reading Wrote:  

(08-11-2013 11:54 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  The key is really to go undefeated, right? That would get the job done. So in many respects I see the MAC as just as big a threat to take that spot. Toledo plays a strong OOC usually, but I could see them or another team beating up on their league schedule the way that you really won't be able to do in The American.

Eh. If there was an undefeated MAC team and an undefeated American team, unless the OOC was highly superior for the MAC team, I'd expect the American team to be higher-ranked every time.

But there's more likely to be an undefeated MAC team IMO. And I think the undefeated MAC team would at least be a threat (even likely) to be higher ranked than the one-loss American team.

(08-12-2013 07:12 AM)panicstricken Wrote:  Other than Cinncinatti and Houston who here has even scratched the top 10 in the last decade?

UConn made it to #13, but never the Top 10.

(08-12-2013 12:13 PM)Inigo Wrote:  I did a quick check and here is a list of the top G5 school in the final BCS standings for each of the last 15 years (assuming the 2014 conference lineups were in place):

2012 - MAC (Northern Illinois)
2011 - MWC (Boise St)
2010 - MWC (Boise St)
2009 - American (Cincinnati)
2008 - MWC (Boise St)
2007 - MWC (Hawaii)
2006 - MWC (Boise St)
2005 - MWC (Boise St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 25, but Boise St was highest in both AP (28) and Coaches (27))
2004 - MWC (Boise St)
2003 - MWC (Boise St)
2002 - MWC (Boise St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Boise St was highest in both AP (19) and Coaches (15))
2001 - MWC (Fresno St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Fresno St was highest in AP (20))
2000 - MWC (Colorado St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Colorado St was highest in AP (23))
1999 - C-USA (Marshall)
1998 - American (Tulane)

Number of Access Bowl slots over last 15 years if the 2014 conference and bowl structures were in place:
MWC - 11 (Boise St x 8, Hawaii, Fresno St, Colorado St)
American - 2 (Cincinnati, Tulane)
MAC - 1 (Northern Illinois)
C-USA - 1 (Marshall)

correction: in 2003 Miami(oh) was the top G5 school at #11, Boise was #17.

EDIT
correction #2- in 2005 the highest G5 in the AP Poll was Toledo at #26 and in the coaches poll it was Tulsa at #26.

(08-12-2013 12:13 PM)Inigo Wrote:  I did a quick check and here is a list of the top G5 school in the final BCS standings for each of the last 15 years (assuming the 2014 conference lineups were in place):

2012 - MAC (Northern Illinois)
2011 - MWC (Boise St)
2010 - MWC (Boise St)
2009 - American (Cincinnati)
2008 - MWC (Boise St)
2007 - MWC (Hawaii)
2006 - MWC (Boise St)
2005 - MWC (Boise St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 25, but Boise St was highest in both AP (28) and Coaches (27))
2004 - MWC (Boise St)
2003 - MWC (Boise St)
2002 - MWC (Boise St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Boise St was highest in both AP (19) and Coaches (15))
2001 - MWC (Fresno St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Fresno St was highest in AP (20))
2000 - MWC (Colorado St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Colorado St was highest in AP (23))
1999 - C-USA (Marshall)
1998 - American (Tulane)

Number of Access Bowl slots over last 15 years if the 2014 conference and bowl structures were in place:
MWC - 11 (Boise St x 8, Hawaii, Fresno St, Colorado St)
American - 2 (Cincinnati, Tulane)
MAC - 1 (Northern Illinois)
C-USA - 1 (Marshall)

Facts are a hell of a drug.

(08-12-2013 07:44 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(08-12-2013 12:13 PM)Inigo Wrote:  I did a quick check and here is a list of the top G5 school in the final BCS standings for each of the last 15 years (assuming the 2014 conference lineups were in place):

2012 - MAC (Northern Illinois)
2011 - MWC (Boise St)
2010 - MWC (Boise St)
2009 - American (Cincinnati)
2008 - MWC (Boise St)
2007 - MWC (Hawaii)
2006 - MWC (Boise St)
2005 - MWC (Boise St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 25, but Boise St was highest in both AP (28) and Coaches (27))
2004 - MWC (Boise St)
2003 - MAC (Miami University)
2002 - MWC (Boise St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Boise St was highest in both AP (19) and Coaches (15))
2001 - MWC (Fresno St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Fresno St was highest in AP (20))
2000 - MWC (Colorado St)(NOTE: NONE ranked in final BCS top 15, but Colorado St was highest in AP (23))
1999 - C-USA (Marshall)
1998 - American (Tulane)

Number of Access Bowl slots over last 15 years if the 2014 conference and bowl structures were in place:
MWC - 10 (Boise St x 7, Hawaii, Fresno St, Colorado St)
American - 2 (Cincinnati, Tulane)
MAC - 2 (Northern Illinois, Miami University)
C-USA - 1 (Marshall)

correction: in 2003 Miami(oh) was the top G5 school at #11, Boise was #17.

EDIT
correction #2- in 2005 the highest G5 in the AP Poll was Toledo at #26 and in the coaches poll it was Tulsa at #26.

You are correct about 2003. I completely missed Miami (OH) in my haste. I have gone back and corrected my mistake. Thanks.

You are incorrect about 2005. You are looking at the post-bowl Final rankings. That is not when the decision is made. You have to look at the end-of-regular-season poll from December 5 to see who is the highest ranked at that time. That is who would get the Access Bowl. In that post-regular-season, pre-bowl ranking, Boise St is the highest G5 team.

(08-12-2013 07:12 AM)panicstricken Wrote:  Other than Cinncinatti and Houston who here has even scratched the top 10 in the last decade?

USF made it up to #2 before losing three in a row.

(08-12-2013 12:05 AM)Brian Reading Wrote:  

(08-11-2013 11:54 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  The key is really to go undefeated, right? That would get the job done. So in many respects I see the MAC as just as big a threat to take that spot. Toledo plays a strong OOC usually, but I could see them or another team beating up on their league schedule the way that you really won't be able to do in The American.

Eh. If there was an undefeated MAC team and an undefeated American team, unless the OOC was highly superior for the MAC team, I'd expect the American team to be higher-ranked every time.

In this case, I'd expect both the MAC and American team to go to a CFP bowl.

The reason why is that there is going to be a few 2 loss teams in a CFP bowl every year. I can't imagine leaving a 13-0 team from the G5 out over an 11-2 team. Things would get very political at that point and the pressure would be on to select both teams (who would both be in the top 10 of the standings).

In the situation where both teams have 1 loss and its clear that no more than 1 team will be taken.....it will come down exclusively to OOC. I have proven it before that any conference with an one loss team in it will be rated no lower than #8 in strength making the SBC, CUSA or MAC competitive with the MWC or AAC for that season.

(08-11-2013 11:31 PM)Brian Reading Wrote:  I know it's pretty early to talk about since 2013 hasn't even taken place, but besides Boise State or a school from our conference, what other G5 school would you expect could take the lone G5 access bowl spot or the playoff in 2014?

If ECU wins their OOC & goes undefeated, we would be in the playoffs. Now that we look like we may have a Defense this could be our year.

(08-13-2013 12:13 AM)whitey Wrote:  

(08-11-2013 11:31 PM)Brian Reading Wrote:  I know it's pretty early to talk about since 2013 hasn't even taken place, but besides Boise State or a school from our conference, what other G5 school would you expect could take the lone G5 access bowl spot or the playoff in 2014?

If ECU wins their OOC & goes undefeated, we would be in the playoffs. Now that we look like we may have a Defense this could be our year.

Making the playoffs is one thing but could you actually win the playoffs if you get there?

That is the real question.

(08-13-2013 12:13 AM)whitey Wrote:  

(08-11-2013 11:31 PM)Brian Reading Wrote:  I know it's pretty early to talk about since 2013 hasn't even taken place, but besides Boise State or a school from our conference, what other G5 school would you expect could take the lone G5 access bowl spot or the playoff in 2014?

If ECU wins their OOC & goes undefeated, we would be in the playoffs. Now that we look like we may have a Defense this could be our year.

No playoff this year, they start in 2014 I agree our SOS SHOULD be enough with the way we schedule OOC. Either way I'm sure the system would find a way to screw a G5 school. Access Bowl remains the somewhat realistic goal.

(08-13-2013 08:46 AM)blunderbuss Wrote:  

(08-13-2013 12:13 AM)whitey Wrote:  

(08-11-2013 11:31 PM)Brian Reading Wrote:  I know it's pretty early to talk about since 2013 hasn't even taken place, but besides Boise State or a school from our conference, what other G5 school would you expect could take the lone G5 access bowl spot or the playoff in 2014?

If ECU wins their OOC & goes undefeated, we would be in the playoffs. Now that we look like we may have a Defense this could be our year.

No playoff this year, they start in 2014 I agree our SOS SHOULD be enough with the way we schedule OOC. Either way I'm sure the system would find a way to screw a G5 school. Access Bowl remains the somewhat realistic goal.

Correct, my mistake. Meant BcS.

Last year at various times, four different MAC teams, and one sunbelt team were ranked ahead of the top team in the Big East, the top team in the MWC, and/or the top bowl eligible team in the Big Ten. None were undefeated. Nothing should be assumed.

(08-12-2013 03:49 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  

(08-12-2013 12:05 AM)Brian Reading Wrote:  

(08-11-2013 11:54 PM)OUGwave Wrote:  The key is really to go undefeated, right? That would get the job done. So in many respects I see the MAC as just as big a threat to take that spot. Toledo plays a strong OOC usually, but I could see them or another team beating up on their league schedule the way that you really won't be able to do in The American.

Eh. If there was an undefeated MAC team and an undefeated American team, unless the OOC was highly superior for the MAC team, I'd expect the American team to be higher-ranked every time.

But there's more likely to be an undefeated MAC team IMO. And I think the undefeated MAC team would at least be a threat (even likely) to be higher ranked than the one-loss American team.

Toledo is not the only MAC program with tough but winnable OOC games with AQ programs. NIU has Iowa and Purdue on the road, 2 winnable B10 games that actually won conference games last year unlike Indiana and Illinois that Cincy is playing.

Toledo has Florida and Mizzou and as has been mentioned Ohio has Lville. If Toledo beats 2 SEC teams and wins the MAC they are getting the AQ bowl slot.An SEC team has won the National Championship the last 7 years, a non AQ team that beats 2 of their members and wins it's conference has earned alot of street cred

(08-13-2013 10:44 AM)Poliicious Wrote:  An SEC team has won the National Championship the last 7 years, a non AQ team that beats 2 of their members and wins it's conference has earned alot of street cred

Hasn't done that much for Louisville, who beat two SEC teams rather handily, won their conference, is actually a BCS team, and yet could be locked out of a national championship game