(04-28-2013 10:41 PM)esayem Wrote:  Providence
St. John's
Seton Hall
Villanova
Georgetown

Xavier
Butler
DePaul
Marquette
Creighton

Looking at it like this, it almost seems Drake and Duquesne make the most sense. I know that won't happen so I'm going with St. Louis and Dayton.

Geographically speaking of course.

(04-28-2013 11:39 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  I think VCU is a long shot which makes WSU probably not even on the radar to be honest. The president's seem to prefer like-minded institutions (non-public) which would put SLU right at the top and then followed by Dayton and Richmond. Institutional fit seems like a MAJOR factor. After that, the other problem with Wichita is that it's even a smaller city than Omaha and travel would even be a bigger problem than Omaha already is. Omaha has direct flights to 7 of the Big East cities, I'm not sure Wichita does. Most teams would have to fly to Omaha/Kansas City and then bus/connect to Wichita (Olympic sports).

This is very much the case. A lot of people seem to keep denying that this is the case or want to argue that it shouldn't be the case, but the reality is that it IS the case with these university presidents that matter the most (as opposed to the fans that are generally most concerned about the most compelling short-term on-the-court move).

(04-28-2013 11:07 AM)Sactowndog Wrote:  So I understand your point about institutional fit but you ignore some salient points.

1) Wichita State makes a much better travel partner to Creighton than St Louis. For schools trying to save cash this matters.

The notion of a "travel partner" is VASTLY VASTLY VASTLY overrated when you get to this well-funded of a conference. Did I say VASTLY overrated? Very few sports (and certainly not men's basketball) would ever play the back-to-back games in nearish campuses that give rise to the benefit of travel partners. To the extent that you want to save travel costs, the fact that virtually anyone can fly direct into St. Louis is exponentially more relevant than Creighton being "close" to Wichita State. At the same, both Chicago and Indianapolis are closer to St. Louis than Omaha is to Wichita (and Milwaukee is about the same distance), so there's just no viable geographic travel argument in favor of Wichita State here.

Quote:2) Wichita State has the better athletics department overall when compared to St Louis with top 50 teams in multiple sports.

This might be the case, but as everyone should well know by now, performance on-the-court/field is only one factor in conference realignment (and not necessarily the deciding or even the most important one). Recent performance on-the-court and the strength of the current coach are often the most trumped up facts that fans present in arguing for their teams, but they are often the least relevant (or at least are very overrated by fans).

Quote:3) St Louis is a bigger market but it isn't clear to me it is a bigger basketball market. Kansas is a basketball first State and could be a good TV add for the basketball first big east.

While Kansas is a "basketball-first" state, it also very clearly a Jayhawks state beyond reproach and that wouldn't change if Wichita State can run off multiple Final Four runs (just as Butler could never overtake the Hoosiers in Indiana). Missouri and Illinois have large fan bases in St. Louis , but it's still much more split and SLU is the only major basketball entity that's located in that market (and I'm saying this as a diehard Illini guy). Remember that St. Louis doesn't have any NBA team for being such a relatively large market. I (and virtually any TV executive) would rather take their chances with a relative lack of competition (certainly not as strong as KU or KSU year-to-year) in the St. Louis market in this regard. You only need a fraction of St. Louis to make SLU pay off compared to "owning" Wichita.

Quote:So if you add VCU I think you have to think hard about Wichita State.

I don't find them one and the same at all. VCU is at least on the East Coast in a recruiting-rich territory and provides overall geographic balance to the conference. Even if VCU ends up losing Shaka Smart or has mediocre seasons, they could conceivably still provide value to the Big East as constructed. Wichita State, on the other hand, doesn't. Their only value would be on-the-court, and I know this probably sounds strange to a lot of people, but that's actually a big-time negative. They need to bring value even in the years when they aren't playing well (and EVERY program goes through periods when they aren't playing well, even at bluest blue bloods like Kentucky, UCLA and Indiana) and that's not evident at all. A bad Wichita State program becomes an albatross in the Big East in a way that even DePaul doesn't (because it's located in Chicago). That's why so much of conference realignment overall (not just with the Big East) is about institutional fits, major TV markets and demographics as opposed to recent basketball (or football) program strength alone.

Now, I don't think the university presidents are considering VCU, anyway, so this is probably a moot point.

I think SLU is a given and the fight is over who number 12 is. GTown wants Richmond, Marquette is pushing for VCU and a few like St. John's are pushing for Dayton.

We shall see, but i'd put my money on Dayton, unless GTown can make some serious concessions to get Richmond in. I don't think they will and eventually SLU and UD get the nod.

(04-29-2013 08:41 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  I think SLU is a given and the fight is over who number 12 is. GTown wants Richmond, Marquette is pushing for VCU and a few like St. John's are pushing for Dayton.

We shall see, but i'd put my money on Dayton, unless GTown can make some serious concessions to get Richmond in. I don't think they will and eventually SLU and UD get the nod.

I agree with this assessment. There's really no point in arguing about the merits of SLU - they're in if there's expansion. I think Dayton is still the frontrunner for spot #12, as well.

I really think if Dayton starts to show a real pulse, they get in.

However if like 2 more years go by, and VCU gets another sweet 16 run even, it's going to get harder and harder to ignore VCU. And I'm sorry, but Richmond has next to ZERO chance to get in- don't see Fox wanting a program that is a clear cut #2 just in programs in the city(let alone the rest of the state). VCU may not get in, but Richmond sure as heck won't either. It'd be impossible for a program like a Marquette selling playing a Richmond instead of a VCU.

Stever we know how you feel. Saying the same thing over and over again will not change anything. Presidents care about institutional fit. No matter how much you don't want to hear it, it's the truth.

(04-29-2013 08:34 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  They need to bring value even in the years when they aren't playing well (and EVERY program goes through periods when they aren't playing well, even at bluest blue bloods like Kentucky, UCLA and Indiana) and that's not evident at all. A bad Wichita State program becomes an albatross in the Big East in a way that even DePaul doesn't (because it's located in Chicago).

The one off-court thing that Wichita State always brings is the fan base. Wichita State spent about 10 years as a very bad basketball team (1989-2000ish), and still was pulling 7,000 fans a night. From 1955 to 2010, we averaged 8,622 fans and never had a home record worse than 6-9.

For reference, that is about what Villanova averaged last year, and we've been doing it for a half century. It is more than what St. John's, Providence, DePaul, Seton Hall, or Butler averaged last year.

(04-29-2013 12:20 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Stever we know how you feel. Saying the same thing over and over again will not change anything. Presidents care about institutional fit. No matter how much you don't want to hear it, it's the truth.

seems like Marquette like you said is wanting VCU so not sure how much you say is right about the insitutional fit being everything. Moreover, if VCU makes the sweet 16 like next year, going to make it that much harder to ignore them. Bottom line, the sucess that VCU is having is making it almost impossible for Richmond to get into the Big East. It'd be hard for a school like a Marquette to sell to their fans we're not taking in VCU but we are taking in Richmond because they're private(but not catholic).

Bottom line, I think #12 is really between Dayton and VCU. I don't think Richmond has a prayer quite frankly.

(04-29-2013 12:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 12:20 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Stever we know how you feel. Saying the same thing over and over again will not change anything. Presidents care about institutional fit. No matter how much you don't want to hear it, it's the truth.

seems like Marquette like you said is wanting VCU so not sure how much you say is right about the insitutional fit being everything. Moreover, if VCU makes the sweet 16 like next year, going to make it that much harder to ignore them. Bottom line, the sucess that VCU is having is making it almost impossible for Richmond to get into the Big East. It'd be hard for a school like a Marquette to sell to their fans we're not taking in VCU but we are taking in Richmond because they're private(but not catholic).

Bottom line, I think #12 is really between Dayton and VCU. I don't think Richmond has a prayer quite frankly.

When did we get to the point where we are guessing Marquette is backing VCU?

(04-29-2013 12:45 PM)aughnanure Wrote:  When did we get to the point where we are guessing Marquette is backing VCU?

(414) 288-6303. Ask for "L. Williams" and see if he'll fill ya in

It most likely coming down to St. Louis, Dayton and Richmond for just 2 spots. I think Dayton (great fan sport from the city, always 10K+) and Richmond (good institutional fit, good overall athletic department) should be the pick. However, choosing St. Louis wouldn't be the worst thing in the world and it brings a school in closer to Creighton.

(04-29-2013 12:45 PM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 12:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 12:20 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Stever we know how you feel. Saying the same thing over and over again will not change anything. Presidents care about institutional fit. No matter how much you don't want to hear it, it's the truth.

seems like Marquette like you said is wanting VCU so not sure how much you say is right about the insitutional fit being everything. Moreover, if VCU makes the sweet 16 like next year, going to make it that much harder to ignore them. Bottom line, the sucess that VCU is having is making it almost impossible for Richmond to get into the Big East. It'd be hard for a school like a Marquette to sell to their fans we're not taking in VCU but we are taking in Richmond because they're private(but not catholic).

Bottom line, I think #12 is really between Dayton and VCU. I don't think Richmond has a prayer quite frankly.

When did we get to the point where we are guessing Marquette is backing VCU?

I was thinking the same thing. How does anyone on here know what Marquette (or any school) wants or doesn't want?

(04-29-2013 02:09 PM)kobe Wrote:  It most likely coming down to St. Louis, Dayton and Richmond for just 2 spots. I think Dayton (great fan sport from the city, always 10K+) and Richmond (good institutional fit, good overall athletic department) should be the pick. However, choosing St. Louis wouldn't be the worst thing in the world and it brings a school in closer to Creighton.

I'm a SLU fan, but putting SLU behind BOTH Dayton and Richmond?

(04-29-2013 06:30 PM)LouPower Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 02:09 PM)kobe Wrote:  It most likely coming down to St. Louis, Dayton and Richmond for just 2 spots. I think Dayton (great fan sport from the city, always 10K+) and Richmond (good institutional fit, good overall athletic department) should be the pick. However, choosing St. Louis wouldn't be the worst thing in the world and it brings a school in closer to Creighton.

I'm a SLU fan, but putting SLU behind BOTH Dayton and Richmond?

Yeah, he's not thinking like a university president. Heck, I don't even know why Joe Blow Sports Fan would rather have that.

(04-28-2013 09:22 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 08:38 PM)Melky Cabrera Wrote:  

(04-28-2013 10:25 AM)MSki Wrote:  Isn't this a no-brainer? St Louis and Dayton are perfect matches. Both Catholic, good programs, and centrally located. Let Wichita find a new home in the Mountain West if they need a better conference. And VCU? If they're not happy in the A-10, maybe the AAC will take them.

Look, you're going to dip into the A-10 again anyway, why not do them a favor and make them a true east coast conference again?

I don't see Dayton and St. Louis as a perfect match.

Expansion to 12 means2 divisions. UD and SLU are both Midwest, which is a bad match. The conference will need one East Coast team for and east division. Neither of those two fits that spot.

It's VCU or Siena. Seems like an easy choice to me.

This isn't FB, there is no need to go to divisions with 12 teams.

With 12 teams, they're not going to play 22 games. Divisions are the best way to organize the league and encourage rivalries.

(04-29-2013 12:45 PM)aughnanure Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 12:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(04-29-2013 12:20 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Stever we know how you feel. Saying the same thing over and over again will not change anything. Presidents care about institutional fit. No matter how much you don't want to hear it, it's the truth.

seems like Marquette like you said is wanting VCU so not sure how much you say is right about the insitutional fit being everything. Moreover, if VCU makes the sweet 16 like next year, going to make it that much harder to ignore them. Bottom line, the sucess that VCU is having is making it almost impossible for Richmond to get into the Big East. It'd be hard for a school like a Marquette to sell to their fans we're not taking in VCU but we are taking in Richmond because they're private(but not catholic).

Bottom line, I think #12 is really between Dayton and VCU. I don't think Richmond has a prayer quite frankly.

When did we get to the point where we are guessing Marquette is backing VCU?

January 16th.

Why no mention of Wichita State? They did go to the Final Four. If we include VCU in the conversation, we should include WSU as well.

(04-30-2013 08:36 AM)ivet Wrote:  Why no mention of Wichita State? They did go to the Final Four. If we include VCU in the conversation, we should include WSU as well.

Geography. VCU would fit- making the league 6 east 6 midwest. Wichita wouldn't- making the league 5 east and 7 midwest. Outside of on the court, it's the biggest plus for VCU right now I believe.