(01-15-2013 11:56 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(01-15-2013 11:15 AM)Lolly Popp Wrote:  Do people ever look at maps? If the A-10 loses all four of Xavier, Dayton, Butler, and St. Louis, why would they expand into the Midwest or south of the Ohio River? They can just add the teams I listed above in magenta and have a sensible footprint again. Where would Murray State put football anyway?

It's not FBS FB so it really doesn't matter.

You would think they would try and get some strength back after being so neutered. Also KY is adjacent to VA so it's within its footprint.

I bet it would matter to Murray State. And it is in Kentucky, but it's on the extreme western part of KY if that would make any difference to those envolved.

So let me get this right....

A league with
RI
Mass
Fordham
Siena/Hofstra
St Bonaventure
Duquesne
St Joseph's
La Salle
George Washington
George Mason
Richmond
VCU

is going to be a multiple NCAA tourney conference? I really don't see it....
ACC
Big Ten
Big 12
SEC
Pac 12
MWC
CYO League
Aresco League
WCC

all considerably ahead of the new A10. And, a #10 conference normally is Conference Champ and that's it.

And, it wouldn't shock me at all to see VCU be gone as well. Especially with how well they are doing this year yet again. The better they do, the harder it's going to be for the C7 group to leave them out. Esp if they have a big tourney run this year. And, if they lose VCU- that's a devastating blow to the A10.

(01-15-2013 03:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  So let me get this right....

A league with... is going to be a multiple NCAA tourney conference? I really don't see it....

... a #10 conference normally is Conference Champ and that's it.

I think what you're missing is the inter-related aspect of conference play:

-- Adding ND, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt doesn't turn a 5-bid ACC into a 9-bid ACC.
Last season NC State was #49 in the RPI, 9-7 in the ACC, 22-12 overall.
Last season Virginia was #53 in the RPI, 9-7 in the ACC, 22-9 overall.

Let's say instead of second wins against teams like Miami, Clemson, Wake and BC (who they won't play twice anymore) and two OOC wins (18 ACC games now), those guys are 18-win teams with four games left: Syracuse, Louisville, ND and Pitt.

Instead of meeting in the 4/5 game of the ACC tourney and one of them getting a win, they're probably drawing 1 or 2 Duke/Louisville/UNC/Syracuse and losing.

NC State is now 18-15, 8-10 and in the NIT
Virginia is now 19-12, 8-10 and in the NIT


-- Now take away games vs Xavier, Temple, SLU etc last season for the remaining A-10 schools.

St. Bona was 0-3 vs X, Temple and SLU. 9-3 against the teams still/now in the conference (beat Siena OOC). So they're 12-4 instead of 10-6 in conference. UMass is 11-5, LaSalle is 11-5 (still lose to Temple OOC)

Now you have:
26-6 (13-3) VCU
23-8 (12-4) Bona
25-9 (11-5) UMass
25-9 (11-5) LaSalle

Entering the A-10 quarterfinals. Higher win percentages for all four. Fewer conference games = higher SOS for all four. That adds up to higher RPIs for all four. That moves them from the 70s to the 50s of the RPI (BCS schools losing more, maybe even top 50). That means their wins against each other aren't "NIT wins" they are "NCAA or Bubble" wins.

That's going to put a second team into the field.

(01-15-2013 05:11 PM)JPSchmack Wrote:  

(01-15-2013 03:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  So let me get this right....

A league with... is going to be a multiple NCAA tourney conference? I really don't see it....

... a #10 conference normally is Conference Champ and that's it.

I think what you're missing is the inter-related aspect of conference play:

-- Adding ND, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt doesn't turn a 5-bid ACC into a 9-bid ACC.
Last season NC State was #49 in the RPI, 9-7 in the ACC, 22-12 overall.
Last season Virginia was #53 in the RPI, 9-7 in the ACC, 22-9 overall.

Let's say instead of second wins against teams like Miami, Clemson, Wake and BC (who they won't play twice anymore) and two OOC wins (18 ACC games now), those guys are 18-win teams with four games left: Syracuse, Louisville, ND and Pitt.

Instead of meeting in the 4/5 game of the ACC tourney and one of them getting a win, they're probably drawing 1 or 2 Duke/Louisville/UNC/Syracuse and losing.

NC State is now 18-15, 8-10 and in the NIT
Virginia is now 19-12, 8-10 and in the NIT


-- Now take away games vs Xavier, Temple, SLU etc last season for the remaining A-10 schools.

St. Bona was 0-3 vs X, Temple and SLU. 9-3 against the teams still/now in the conference (beat Siena OOC). So they're 12-4 instead of 10-6 in conference. UMass is 11-5, LaSalle is 11-5 (still lose to Temple OOC)

Now you have:
26-6 (13-3) VCU
23-8 (12-4) Bona
25-9 (11-5) UMass
25-9 (11-5) LaSalle

Entering the A-10 quarterfinals. Higher win percentages for all four. Fewer conference games = higher SOS for all four. That adds up to higher RPIs for all four. That moves them from the 70s to the 50s of the RPI (BCS schools losing more, maybe even top 50). That means their wins against each other aren't "NIT wins" they are "NCAA or Bubble" wins.

That's going to put a second team into the field.

If it's 12 teams, there would still be the same number of conference games. The SOS will go down considerably. It doesn't add up to RPI changing much at all.

Also, for the ACC, the entire schedule goes up in SOS. They won't see much of a change for the RPI at all....

(01-15-2013 05:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If it's 12 teams, there would still be the same number of conference games. The SOS will go down considerably. It doesn't add up to RPI changing much at all.

Also, for the ACC, the entire schedule goes up in SOS. They won't see much of a change for the RPI at all....

#1 - Last season, there were 14 teams playing 16 conference games each (112-112 in conference)
This season, there are 16 teams playing 16 conference games each (128-128 in conference)
And if you have 12 teams playing 16 conference games each going forward (96-96 in conference), it's fewer conference games.

#2 - You're looking at it from an "eye-test" standpoint: More good teams for the ACC = tougher schedules. Less quality teams for the A10 = easier schedules. And while that's true in reality, it isn't how the RPI and SOS actually works.

Above, I listed the wins and losses (instead of just the number games) to show you how the changes effect RPI.

Imbalanced schedules mean calculating things for every team. I'm going to be lazy just to illustrate the principle.
Everyone in the conference ties at 8-8 or 9-9, and everyone has the same OOC record and OOC SOS (Just for simple math).

ACC (12 teams, 16 games) 168-0 OOC, 96-96 ACC. 152-96 (.7333) total.
ACC (15 teams, 18 games) 180-0 OOC, 135-135 ACC. 315-135 (.7000) total.

Since all the teams are tied with the same records, that overall win percentage is the exact same thing as their SOS for each CONFERENCE games.

Let's say in each season, their OOC SOS is .5000 for every game.
16 Conference games times .7333 + 14 OOC games times .5000 / 30 = .62443 SOS for every ACC team.
18 Conference games times .7000 + 12 OOC games times .5000 / 30 = .62000 SOS for every ACC team.

The games are harder. But because they're playing each other more and someone has to lose, their records get worse. That lowers their SOS.

(01-15-2013 05:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If it's 12 teams, there would still be the same number of conference games. The SOS will go down considerably. It doesn't add up to RPI changing much at all.

Also, for the ACC, the entire schedule goes up in SOS. They won't see much of a change for the RPI at all....

Now let's address the idea that the A-10 SOS goes down without Xavier and Temple. This one is much harder to illustrate, because VCU, Mason and Siena were in different conferences (and played A10 teams OOC).

First we'll do this:
A10 (16 teams, 16 games) 224-0 OOC, 128-128 A10 (.7333 total)
A10 (12 teams, 16 games) 168-0 OOC, 96-96 A10 (.7333 total)
No loss of SOS at all.


But I know that's not what you meant. You meant Xavier and Temple (and Dayton, SLU) are good. And VCU, GMU and Siena would have to replace them (and Charlotte). But the newcomers aren't as good as those leaving.

Last season, the 14-team A-10 was: 120-74 OOC, 112-112 A10 (.5550 total)
Last season, the new 12-team A-10: 98-66 OOC* 96-96 A10. (.5449 total)

So yeah, their SOS goes down. By .0001.

*That includes changing no results from OOC, but occasionally an opponent. Bona vs Siena OOC, VCU & GMU vs A-10 schools OOC.

Let's say instead of Siena losing to Bona, they beat Niagara instead (which they did in conference play BTW). Now their SOS goes up.

But another thing to consider is that the new 12-team A-10 didn't go 96-96 in conference last year.
They played X, Temple, SLU (NCAA teams). And went 63-81 (.4375).

That's why Bonaventure, UMass, LaSalle's RPI would go up.

Two more wins last season (one home, one road) and Bona would have been #43 in the RPI.
Two more wins last season (one home, one road) and UMass would have been #49 in the RPI.
Two more wins last season (one home, one road) and LaSalle would have been #67 in the RPI.

And of course, the effect of more conference games lowering SOS because everyone's records are closer to .500 for the conferences that ADDED good teams; and the fact that Butler, Memphis, Creighton and VCU are in better leagues... a lot of schools around them (like Virginia and NC State that I mentioned) are going DOWN in the RPI.

But you also have the "marquee win" factor. Instead of going 4-7 vs Top 50 A-10 teams combined last year, VCU-Bona-UMass are top 50 RPI teams themselves, and will split against each other.

(01-15-2013 07:32 PM)JPSchmack Wrote:  

(01-15-2013 05:34 PM)stever20 Wrote:  If it's 12 teams, there would still be the same number of conference games. The SOS will go down considerably. It doesn't add up to RPI changing much at all.

Also, for the ACC, the entire schedule goes up in SOS. They won't see much of a change for the RPI at all....

Now let's address the idea that the A-10 SOS goes down without Xavier and Temple. This one is much harder to illustrate, because VCU, Mason and Siena were in different conferences (and played A10 teams OOC).

First we'll do this:
A10 (16 teams, 16 games) 224-0 OOC, 128-128 A10 (.7333 total)
A10 (12 teams, 16 games) 168-0 OOC, 96-96 A10 (.7333 total)
No loss of SOS at all.


But I know that's not what you meant. You meant Xavier and Temple (and Dayton, SLU) are good. And VCU, GMU and Siena would have to replace them (and Charlotte). But the newcomers aren't as good as those leaving.

Last season, the 14-team A-10 was: 120-74 OOC, 112-112 A10 (.5550 total)
Last season, the new 12-team A-10: 98-66 OOC* 96-96 A10. (.5449 total)

So yeah, their SOS goes down. By .0001.

*That includes changing no results from OOC, but occasionally an opponent. Bona vs Siena OOC, VCU & GMU vs A-10 schools OOC.

Let's say instead of Siena losing to Bona, they beat Niagara instead (which they did in conference play BTW). Now their SOS goes up.

But another thing to consider is that the new 12-team A-10 didn't go 96-96 in conference last year.
They played X, Temple, SLU (NCAA teams). And went 63-81 (.4375).

That's why Bonaventure, UMass, LaSalle's RPI would go up.

Two more wins last season (one home, one road) and Bona would have been #43 in the RPI.
Two more wins last season (one home, one road) and UMass would have been #49 in the RPI.
Two more wins last season (one home, one road) and LaSalle would have been #67 in the RPI.

And of course, the effect of more conference games lowering SOS because everyone's records are closer to .500 for the conferences that ADDED good teams; and the fact that Butler, Memphis, Creighton and VCU are in better leagues... a lot of schools around them (like Virginia and NC State that I mentioned) are going DOWN in the RPI.

But you also have the "marquee win" factor. Instead of going 4-7 vs Top 50 A-10 teams combined last year, VCU-Bona-UMass are top 50 RPI teams themselves, and will split against each other.

If I am following all this correctly, the bottom line really is that the A10 needs to add teams that are as good OOC as those that leave. Internal conference play ultimately will MOSTLY wash out (but really only if you play a complete round robin...otherwise there will be an unbalanced effect of conference RPI based on which teams you play once and which teams you play twice).

That's a challenge then because if you look at the teams "potentially" leaving the A-10 they are a collective .7579 OOC this year while those remaining are a collective .5537

Obviously things could change from season to season but the real impact on conference strength comes from OOC play

(01-15-2013 07:51 PM)cr8ngrad Wrote:  If I am following all this correctly, the bottom line really is that the A10 needs to add teams that are as good OOC as those that leave. Internal conference play ultimately will MOSTLY wash out (but really only if you play a complete round robin...otherwise there will be an unbalanced effect of conference RPI based on which teams you play once and which teams you play twice).

That's a challenge then because if you look at the teams "potentially" leaving the A-10 they are a collective .7579 OOC this year while those remaining are a collective .5537

Obviously things could change from season to season but the real impact on conference strength comes from OOC play

That's the nuts and bolts of it.

The biggest problem is that the MAIN CULPRITS of the "anyone, anywhere" scheduling mentality that kills you are the people left behind. The eastern flank of the A-10 is probably going to react to teams leaving by panicking "WE'VE GOT TO PLAY MORE TOUGH TEAMS BECAUSE WE LOST XAVIER & TEMPLE!"

They really need to make no schedule changes. If anything, tone it down. Make the story "wow, the A-10 is killing people out of conference, even without Temple and Xavier!"

Charlotte was a classic "Paper Tiger" this season. Look at their OOC record. Yeah, but who'd they beat? Well, if you have six paper tigers and they beat each other, you know what you have? A strong conference.

The A-10 needs to go isolationist.

If Dayton doesn't make the cut for the C7, we'll be fine. Those guys always have good OOC seasons. Everyone says "yeah, you're 11-2, but who'd you beat? A sixth-place SEC team, and you lost to two mid-majors!" But when March comes around, those mid-majors are 27-5 and Dayton helps everyone's RPI.

(01-15-2013 11:56 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(01-15-2013 11:15 AM)Lolly Popp Wrote:  Do people ever look at maps? If the A-10 loses all four of Xavier, Dayton, Butler, and St. Louis, why would they expand into the Midwest or south of the Ohio River? They can just add the teams I listed above in magenta and have a sensible footprint again. Where would Murray State put football anyway?

It's not FBS FB so it really doesn't matter.

You would think they would try and get some strength back after being so neutered. Also KY is adjacent to VA so it's within its footprint.

To you, it may not matter, but to others it does. Just because your school couldn't compete in football, so they dropped it, doesn't mean other schools don't value FCS football. And Murray is on the western edge of Kentucky - hundreds of miles from VA.

i think one thing we all should have learned years ago is that maps dont matter any more in sports

All I know- The A10 right now in Sagarin- is #8....

That's with
13 VCU
32 Butler
48 Temple
49 Saint Louis
61 Charlotte
70 Dayton
89 Xavier

teams remaining:
60 La Salle
66 St Joseph's
107 UMass
120 Richmond
151 George Washington
157 St Bonaventure
192 Rhode Island
218 Duquesne
247 Fordham

I'm sorry, but for one- those schools can't afford to change their scheduling. It's laughable that you really believe the conference will lose potentially 7 of their 9 best schools(including the 4 best)- and there'd be an improvement in RPI. Things don't work that way. It's 50% your opponents records. So, if you schedule a lot of Grambling St- you are going to get punished....

Take Houston. They are 11-3 right now, and according to real time RPI is 341 in SOS.. Right now, they are #171 in the RPI. Ahead of them- Idaho who is 5-9 with the 59th best schedule.....

The Sagarin doesn't mean anything regarding NCAA bids.

The RPI does. And RPI is only an index of what your record was, your opponents record was, and their opponents record was. You change the opponents (which conference realignment does) and RPI changes.

ok lets look:
Butler 15
VCU 31
Temple 32
St Louis 50
Charlotte 60
Dayton 90
Xavier 92

La Salle 42
UMass 49
St Joseph's 65
Richmond 98
Rhode Island 178
George Washington 182
St Bonaventure 184
Duquesne 196
Fordham 237

so losing 7 of their top 10.... that's not good.... and, none of the schools they'd be looking at are in the top 100 right now....

And- right now- the RPI is primarily the OOC component.

(01-16-2013 01:41 AM)JPSchmack Wrote:  The Sagarin doesn't mean anything regarding NCAA bids.

The RPI does. And RPI is only an index of what your record was, your opponents record was, and their opponents record was. You change the opponents (which conference realignment does) and RPI changes.

The Committee has admitted to using both Sagarin and Pomeroy in their discussions in recent years.

That said, RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, or other are really only there for color and context, the lion's share of bids and seeds over the last decade have been defined by "good wins" and "bad losses" (roughly Top 50 wins and bottom 200 losses)

(01-16-2013 11:55 AM)Title Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 01:41 AM)JPSchmack Wrote:  The Sagarin doesn't mean anything regarding NCAA bids.

The RPI does. And RPI is only an index of what your record was, your opponents record was, and their opponents record was. You change the opponents (which conference realignment does) and RPI changes.

The Committee has admitted to using both Sagarin and Pomeroy in their discussions in recent years.

That said, RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, or other are really only there for color and context, the lion's share of bids and seeds over the last decade have been defined by "good wins" and "bad losses" (roughly Top 50 wins and bottom 200 losses)

well that's one thing- with all the losses, there's now only 2 top 50 teams in to get good wins vs instead of 6.

(01-16-2013 01:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so losing 7 of their top 10.... that's not good....

Also not news. Yeah, they're the best teams in the A-10. That's WHY they're on the way out the door to the better conferences that invited them (Well, except Charlotte)

And Charlotte is our shining example. A classic paper Tiger, Charlotte is 14-2 against the #222 SOS. They are 12-0 vs teams 140+ of the RPI.

Yet, there they are, ahead of Xavier, who's played a far tougher OOC SOS.

Do you get it yet? You pound the crap out of a 200+ OOC SOS, play a half-dozen teams in conference which also pounded the crap out of a 200+ OOC SOS, and you're a multi-bid league. It's really that simple.

(01-16-2013 02:15 PM)JPSchmack Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 01:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so losing 7 of their top 10.... that's not good....

Also not news. Yeah, they're the best teams in the A-10. That's WHY they're on the way out the door to the better conferences that invited them (Well, except Charlotte)

And Charlotte is our shining example. A classic paper Tiger, Charlotte is 14-2 against the #222 SOS. They are 12-0 vs teams 140+ of the RPI.

Yet, there they are, ahead of Xavier, who's played a far tougher OOC SOS.

Do you get it yet? You pound the crap out of a 200+ OOC SOS, play a half-dozen teams in conference which also pounded the crap out of a 200+ OOC SOS, and you're a multi-bid league. It's really that simple.

Here's the thing-
Charlotte 14-2 61 RPI 222 SOS
Xavier 9-6 96 RPI 73 SOS

Charlotte is 4 1/2 games higher than Xavier, but only 35 spots higher in the RPI.

Also- if everyone is paper tigers like Charlotte- the committee sees right thru that. See how many times in the MVC where teams got left out of the tourney.

(01-16-2013 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 02:15 PM)JPSchmack Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 01:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so losing 7 of their top 10.... that's not good....

Also not news. Yeah, they're the best teams in the A-10. That's WHY they're on the way out the door to the better conferences that invited them (Well, except Charlotte)

And Charlotte is our shining example. A classic paper Tiger, Charlotte is 14-2 against the #222 SOS. They are 12-0 vs teams 140+ of the RPI.

Yet, there they are, ahead of Xavier, who's played a far tougher OOC SOS.

Do you get it yet? You pound the crap out of a 200+ OOC SOS, play a half-dozen teams in conference which also pounded the crap out of a 200+ OOC SOS, and you're a multi-bid league. It's really that simple.

Here's the thing-
Charlotte 14-2 61 RPI 222 SOS
Xavier 9-6 96 RPI 73 SOS

Charlotte is 4 1/2 games higher than Xavier, but only 35 spots higher in the RPI.

Also- if everyone is paper tigers like Charlotte- the committee sees right thru that. See how many times in the MVC where teams got left out of the tourney.

Perfect example is MSU in '06. RPI of 21 and played a lot of decent teams but nobody all that good out of the conference. We got 4 teams in that year, but MSU wasn't one of them. There still has to be something of substance on your resume. You don't have to sell out and take on the best of the best, but you do have to play and beat good teams.

(01-16-2013 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  if everyone is paper tigers like Charlotte- the committee sees right thru that. See how many times in the MVC where teams got left out of the tourney.

Really. Go look at the resumes of the MWC teams who made it last season. Aside from UNLV, what was their most impressive win?

(01-16-2013 02:56 PM)JPSchmack Wrote:  

(01-16-2013 02:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  if everyone is paper tigers like Charlotte- the committee sees right thru that. See how many times in the MVC where teams got left out of the tourney.

Really. Go look at the resumes of the MWC teams who made it last season. Aside from UNLV, what was their most impressive win?

New Mexico - New Mexico St. (59), Saint Louis (31), Oklahoma State (120), Missouri State (122), Wyoming x2 (83), San Diego State x2 (27), UNLV x2 (19), Colorado State (29), TCU x2 (112)

SDSU - LBSU (36), Arizona (76), UCSB (123), Cal (37), UNLV (19), New Mexico (26), Wyoming x2 (83), CSU x2 (29), TCU x 2 (112)

Colorado State - Montana (74), Manhattan (148), Colorado (62), UTEP (147), Denver (93), TCU x2 (112), Wyoming (83), New Mexico (26), SDSU (27), UNLV (19)

UNLV - Nevada (67), North Carolina (4), UCSB (123), UTEP (147), Illinois (94), Cal (37), SDSU (27), TCU (112), New Mexico (26), Colorado St (29), Wyoming x2 (83)

Those aren't bad and they played and lost to a few other good/quality teams. You need to play a few Top 50s and a few more Top 100s and even more in the Top 150. Beating up a bunch cupcakes won't do anything for you.