It's still a bit early, so I'll chime in w/ my prediction so y'all can save it and chide me in November or marvel at my prescience.
What I see so far:
Kerry still has yet to define himself, or if he has, the mainstream media aren't buying it and reporting it. Given the media's well documented left leaning, I'm forced to conclude the former. That's bad news.
Nevertheless, Kerry will have a respectable showing. He will win:
Mass
Maine
Vermont
handily.
I also think he has a good shot at:
Conn
probably Oregon, maybe Washington. I don't think he'll get both.
The "battleground" states:
Florida- Won't even be close. Gore was close as the incumbent. Won't happen this time. Bush has a good track record, and medicare reform. Kerry's got nothing. Dems are wasting resources in this state.
Where I think things may be very close this year is:
Pennsylvania- The east will go w/ Kerry, but the central and west portions are up for grabs. I tend to think that Bush's stand on steel would help him here (despite the spin the dems will try) but Kerry's wife has some presence here. Will they view her as a trampish widow? or giver her their support? That's the interesting question, and why this is the interesting state.
California- Conceded by many to the dems, but Arnold is having a good time getting his agenda across in CA. If he stumps for Bush, along w/ the latino vote, this will be surprisingly close.
New York- Here the Republicans get a break w/ their convention. Guilliani and Bloomberg vs Hillary et al. Again a very close call.
Ohio- Ok, three posters who lean toward the Dems are prominent on this board. That and my own reading says Ohio is in disarray. Frankly, w/ news stories from Cincy, Cleveland and my hometown, I'd say Ohio has the perception of being the rubes that TV would have us believe. Thank you NEA. :rolleyes: Too bad, I hate to see such a rapid decline. Anyway, I'm not convinced Ohio goes dem, but it is close. It will buck the trend: Republicans win w/o Ohio. Curiously in a rare event, Dems could take Ohio while Michigan goes to Repubs.
NM- Quirky state. I don't think Dems win, but will take worst case scenario especially w/ Richardson in office.
Missouri- They don't even like Gephardt. Bush wins.
Much of this will be decided on the economy. If the improving trend continues, Bush wins big. If it levels off, Bush still wins. If it plummets...then we gotta know why. War? Strictly economics? Alien invasion?
In summary, Bush wins handily, but EC keeps it close.
Potential Kerry wins (and EC votes):
CA- 55
CT- 7
DC- 3
DE- 3
IL- 21
ME- 4
MD-10
MA-12
NM-5
NY- 31
OH- 20
PA- 21
VT- 7
WA- 11
Total- 210
Even if OR and SD goes to Dems, Kerry still loses.
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