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NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - CD11 - 03-31-2009 10:43 PM
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICS
For those not following closely, this is basically the first proxy war between Michael Steele and President Obama. Formerly held by Kirsten Gillibrand, the NY-20 district is primarily a democratic lean, although rural. However, the republican Tedisco is well-known and popular there and up until just a few days ago, was beating the democrat Murphy past the margin of error. Murphy then appeared to surge.
The pre-race spin on this (other than it being the first proxy war between the two heads of parties) was, if Murphy won, it was an affirmation for Obama's policies and a potentially fatal blow for Steele, who has most definitely come under frequent fire as of late. There were rumors around recently that he might even have to step down if he couldn't pull off a Republican victory in NY-20. If Tedisco won, it would be a rebuff to Obama's stimulus and a major morale booster for Republicans everywhere, especially with the first fund raising report period coming up within days.
Very interesting factors in tonight's results, considering how hard both candidates pushed. My guess is that Tedisco overworked himself on offense - he overperformed in almost all of the traditionally democratic counties but failed to play sufficient defense in many traditionally conservative areas, which allowed Murphy to make up the margins he lost. In other words, this was a race where the Republican did better than expected in the blue areas and the Democrat did better than expected in the red areas. Looking at the raw data, IMO that's probably more Tedisco's fault, but then again, considering Murphy pulled out all the stops (even had Gillibrand robo-calling for him - she'll always be wildly popular in NY-20) and only is winning by double-digits is pretty bad.
I think at this point when you consider how close the race appears to be (65 vote difference in an election of 150,000+ votes) regardless of who wins, both sides will try to claim victory, but given the margin, I think it's pretty much a stalemate. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Steele but I think that's just about the only really compelling result, ultimately speaking.
6,000 outstanding absentee ballots should decide it.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - RobertN - 04-01-2009 02:55 AM
(03-31-2009 10:43 PM)CD11 Wrote: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2009/by_county/NY_US_House_0331.html?SITE=NYSAR&SECTION=POLITICSSo Obama is up on Steele. I guessing having the republican lose is part of Steele's master plan.
For those not following closely, this is basically the first proxy war between Michael Steele and President Obama. Formerly held by Kirsten Gillibrand, the NY-20 district is primarily a democratic lean, although rural. However, the republican Tedisco is well-known and popular there and up until just a few days ago, was beating the democrat Murphy past the margin of error. Murphy then appeared to surge.
The pre-race spin on this (other than it being the first proxy war between the two heads of parties) was, if Murphy won, it was an affirmation for Obama's policies and a potentially fatal blow for Steele, who has most definitely come under frequent fire as of late. There were rumors around recently that he might even have to step down if he couldn't pull off a Republican victory in NY-20. If Tedisco won, it would be a rebuff to Obama's stimulus and a major morale booster for Republicans everywhere, especially with the first fund raising report period coming up within days.
Very interesting factors in tonight's results, considering how hard both candidates pushed. My guess is that Tedisco overworked himself on offense - he overperformed in almost all of the traditionally democratic counties but failed to play sufficient defense in many traditionally conservative areas, which allowed Murphy to make up the margins he lost. In other words, this was a race where the Republican did better than expected in the blue areas and the Democrat did better than expected in the red areas. Looking at the raw data, IMO that's probably more Tedisco's fault, but then again, considering Murphy pulled out all the stops (even had Gillibrand robo-calling for him - she'll always be wildly popular in NY-20) and only is winning by double-digits is pretty bad.
I think at this point when you consider how close the race appears to be (65 vote difference in an election of 150,000+ votes) regardless of who wins, both sides will try to claim victory, but given the margin, I think it's pretty much a stalemate. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Steele but I think that's just about the only really compelling result, ultimately speaking.
6,000 outstanding absentee ballots should decide it.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - GGniner - 04-01-2009 08:46 AM
this is where Gilbrand ran as a blue dog to get elected.
supposedly the thousands of Absentee votes are alot of Military people, if thats the case I'd give edge here to Tedisco. On other hand, there is ACORN out there...it would be a huge early defeat for Obama
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Machiavelli - 04-01-2009 09:05 AM
Joseph J. DioGuardi Republican January 3, 1985 – January 3, 1989
Nita M. Lowey Democratic January 3, 1989 – January 3, 1993 redistricted to 18th district
Benjamin A. Gilman Republican January 3, 1993 – January 3, 2003 redistricted from 22nd district
John E. Sweeney Republican January 3, 2003 – January 3, 2007 redistricted from 22nd district
Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic January 3, 2007 – January 26, 2009 appointed by Governor David Paterson as US Senator to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton who was confirmed as President Barack Obama's Secretary of State.
So it has leaned red since 1985. How in the world would this be a HUGE loss for Obama?
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Rebel - 04-01-2009 09:10 AM
(04-01-2009 09:05 AM)Machiavelli Wrote:
Joseph J. DioGuardi Republican January 3, 1985 – January 3, 1989
Nita M. Lowey Democratic January 3, 1989 – January 3, 1993 redistricted to 18th district
Benjamin A. Gilman Republican January 3, 1993 – January 3, 2003 redistricted from 22nd district
John E. Sweeney Republican January 3, 2003 – January 3, 2007 redistricted from 22nd district
Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic January 3, 2007 – January 26, 2009 appointed by Governor David Paterson as US Senator to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton who was confirmed as President Barack Obama's Secretary of State.
So it has leaned red since 1985. How in the world would this be a HUGE loss for Obama?
How is that leaning red since '85?
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - GGniner - 04-01-2009 09:22 AM
its a blue state, and center-left district....and this is early in Obama's administration. To not have the political capital to carry this district, this early on, after campainging for the Lib would be a huge defeat.
If Tedisco were to win, that alone would likely shoot the market up some. Because it would cripple some of Obama's Socialist, economy wrecking, plans.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - CD11 - 04-01-2009 10:05 AM
(04-01-2009 09:22 AM)GGniner Wrote: its a blue state, and center-left district....and this is early in Obama's administration. To not have the political capital to carry this district, this early on, after campainging for the Lib would be a huge defeat.
If Tedisco were to win, that alone would likely shoot the market up some. Because it would cripple some of Obama's Socialist, economy wrecking, plans.
Define "campaigning." To the best of my recollection he wasn't involved at all in the campaign. Now, like I said, Gillibrand was. I know she at least robo-called but that's just off the top of my head. And she's ridiculously popular up there. But I'm 99% sure Obama kept his head down over this.
I do agree with everything else you said, though. Although the margin of victory either way will ensure very little long-term damage for either side (compared to a resounding victory) if Tedisco can pull this off I think there could be a sizeable morale boost for conservatives everywhere, and it'll most definitely ensure that Republicans can control the electoral narrative for a decent amount of time. Plus, the rumors of Steele being under fire should go away. Should.
The bottom line is, democrats have more to lose in NY-20 than republicans.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - GGniner - 04-01-2009 10:22 AM
Obama endorsed the Dem in this race a few days ago
aside from that, this early on he should have enough political capital to hold this seat.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Machiavelli - 04-01-2009 10:36 AM
so for 6 years out of the 24 odd years it has been in Republican hands........................... 75% of the time.................... you guys have Obama Derangement Syndrome................ ODS
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - CD11 - 04-01-2009 10:38 AM
(04-01-2009 10:22 AM)GGniner Wrote: Obama endorsed the Dem in this race a few days ago
aside from that, this early on he should have enough political capital to hold this seat.
Ah. Thanks for that, I hadn't caught the endorsement anywhere.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - GGniner - 04-01-2009 10:41 AM
i hadn't followed this closely, but read that last night
Tedisco Lead in NY Spurs Obama to Back Rival
its a test to see if the country is Center-Left or Center-Right, is what this comes down to. The Dems have more to lose as stated.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - CD11 - 04-01-2009 03:06 PM
And just for reference, regarding the little debate here on what NY-20 leans, its PVI index is R+3 between 2000-2004, and R+2 up to 2008. So it's a slight Republican lean which was getting a tad bit bluer.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - CD11 - 04-01-2009 06:34 PM
After an initial recount of a little over half the counties in the 20th district, Murphy's lead is now down to just 13 votes. Three counties are still to be re-canvassed.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/Murphys_lead_shrinks_to_25_votes.html?showall
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Owl 69/70/75 - 04-01-2009 07:07 PM
In all of our posturing, let's not lose sight of the fact that the incumbent was a democrat.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Machiavelli - 04-01-2009 07:47 PM
What is sad to me is we can't even find a way to be honest with each other. Pointing out for the last 25 years it has been in Republican hands 75% of the time is not posturing. It's stating a fact. Saying that it is a bastion of the blue and this will be a blow to Obama is posturing. Posturing and pathetic really.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Ninerfan1 - 04-02-2009 08:09 AM
(04-01-2009 10:36 AM)Machiavelli Wrote: so for 6 years out of the 24 odd years it has been in Republican hands........................... 75% of the time.................... you guys have Obama Derangement Syndrome................ ODS
6 years out of 25 is 25% professor.
But I understand you meant "it was not".Quote:What is sad to me is we can't even find a way to be honest with each other. Pointing out for the last 25 years it has been in Republican hands 75% of the time is not posturing. It's stating a fact. Saying that it is a bastion of the blue and this will be a blow to Obama is posturing. Posturing and pathetic really.
Let's examine the facts of the last election. Obama was elected by holding blue states by huge margins and winning red states NC, Florida and Ohio. This means he was elected wide popular support. This election is in, given the afore mentioned dynamic, should have been a home run for Obama. Held by a Dem before, they should have walked away with it. They aren't. The question becomes why? The only logical answer is people aren't sold on what Obama has been doing.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - GGniner - 04-02-2009 08:11 AM
all that matters is what it is right now, not in the 80's under Reagan, 90's during the Newt revolution or early 2000's when Bush was popular.
if the country was a Center-Left country and behind Obama its reasonable to say this district, on the strength of that at the moment, would be Democrat. This is the first of many upcoming test on this
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Machiavelli - 04-02-2009 08:53 AM
I have problems understanding myself 50% of the time. It must be a bear for you guys.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - CD11 - 04-02-2009 10:09 AM
(04-02-2009 08:11 AM)GGniner Wrote: all that matters is what it is right now, not in the 80's under Reagan, 90's during the Newt revolution or early 2000's when Bush was popular.
if the country was a Center-Left country and behind Obama its reasonable to say this district, on the strength of that at the moment, would be Democrat. This is the first of many upcoming test on this
I'm hesitant to agree that this one district is a microcosm of the country as a whole. If Tedisco pulls it out (which I'm starting to be convinced he will, the margins are shrinking even without the absentees) it gives republicans the upper hand, there's no arguing that. But here's the thing. Like I said, that PVI index reads somewhere between R+2 and R+3. PVI, just like any other statistic, should be read with some skepticism, but bear with me here. PVI for NY-20 is R+2 or 3, meaning that it tends to vote 2 to 3 points more republican than the average congressional district. I'd classify that as "center-right." So in essence, assuming Tedisco comes back and wins, a presumably center-right district elected a presumably center-right (or further) candidate. That's not really a surprise.
Obviously I'm oversimplifying here and ignoring important factors and just focusing on PVI, but my point is, not every district in America can boast that they're an R+2 or R+3 district. Obviously those numbers are all over the board. So I'm not sure you can really compare NY-20 with the rest of the country on an even plane.
This is the second or third time I've responded directly to you, GGNiner, and I'm sorry if I sound argumentative. I just think this is a factor that needs to be taken into consideration as time goes on. It'll still be a great win for the republicans and should jumpstart them to bigger and better things, and that's great, but I don't know if this marks the nationwide psyche. I usually say the same thing about other singular congressional races too. Now if the republicans can string along a streak of two or three in a row, that'd be as close to proof as possible that Obama's policies are being rejected.
RE: NY-20: Murphy Leads Tedisco by 65 - Owl 69/70/75 - 04-02-2009 10:52 AM
Well, a streak of two or three in a row has to start with one.
I can't see one by-election as confirmation or rejection of Obama.
But it could be the start of a trend.
And if Tedesco pulls it out, it would be a step in the opposite direction.
Regardless of all the spin both ways, the one undeniable fact is that a Tedesco win would mean one democrat seat swinging to the republicans.