What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

A university is a big place with lots of buildings and staff that serve a lot of students.


'Surely.'

Universities have a way of not going anywhere. We talk about schools like they move around, but they don't. And they have great resources, including regiments of donors and lawyers.

The simple answer to your question is that the ACC will exist as long as a group of universities finds its existence useful. Membership is due to hit 18 schools soon. The conference could lose half a dozen of those and remain useful—both to the schools that remain and to schools still looking to join an M2 league with playoff access.

My own impression is that as long as ND is interested in the ACC project, a media partner will be too and the league will continue in some form. As it happens, two very influential universities in California find the ACC project useful, too, as do a battalion of politicians in the state of North Carolina.

As long as someone finds it useful it will be around.



IMO, this thread needlessly duplicates discussion going on in 2 or 3 other active threads. Can our deathless prose be folded into 'What if Clemson, FSU and UNC leave?' or some such?

If just FSU, Carolina and Clemson (not so sure the SEC takes them Clemson. The B1G surely won’t) the ACC invites USF and lives another day. If the ACC loses six or more (FSU, Carolina, Clemsom VaTech to SEC and the B1G takes MIA, Virginia GT and Duke/Kansas) then Pitt to the BIG 12. I think Syracuse, NCST, Louisville all get an invite to the B12 too. BC and Wake probably finds a home in the American. Personally, I prefer that this happens. Playing WVU, Louisville & Cincinnati every year would be fun and great matchups. I’d only miss playing VaTech and to a lesser extent Miami. I think Pitt vs VaTech have a lot of potential for a great rivalry!

Gitanole - Sure merge it with another thread... but wow you seem like a wonderful human being in the way you responded. Stay classy. Not sure I get your anger at me.

I think it's called "kicking the can down the road".

(05-24-2024 08:26 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  Gitanole - Sure merge it with another thread... but wow you seem like a wonderful human being in the way you responded. Stay classy. Not sure I get your anger at me.

My apologies for my poor anger management. I always post Airplane! gags when I'm ragingly furious at somebody.

(05-24-2024 08:33 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  I think it's called "kicking the can down the road".

Yep. Mortality of any sort can always take a number and wait.

What happened? Reno Raines got caught, again?

(05-24-2024 08:09 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

A university is a big place with lots of buildings and staff that serve a lot of students.


'Surely.'

Universities have a way of not going anywhere. We talk about schools like they move around, but they don't. And they have great resources, including regiments of donors and lawyers.

The simple answer to your question is that the ACC will exist as long as a group of universities finds its existence useful. Membership is due to hit 18 schools soon. The conference could lose half a dozen of those and remain useful—both to the schools that remain and to schools still looking to join an M2 league with playoff access.

My own impression is that as long as ND is interested in the ACC project, a media partner will be too and the league will continue in some form. As it happens, two very influential universities in California find the ACC project useful, too, as do a battalion of politicians in the state of North Carolina.

As long as someone finds it useful it will be around.



IMO, this thread needlessly duplicates discussion going on in 2 or 3 other active threads. Can our deathless prose be folded into 'What if Clemson, FSU and UNC leave?' or some such?

You’re Kareem Abdul Jabaar!
No kid, my name is Murdoch.

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

The ACC remnants better plan ahead...

The ACC Remnants will not do what they want to do. It is an inconvenient reality that has not set in yet. They are in denial and disbelief, like deer in headlights, but they will have to make some some decisions soon, or they may lose options costing them status and revenue for potentially generations.

The truth is they will chose what makes them the most money if the difference in such choice is significant enough. My guess is $8 million is the threshold, plus more exposure than other options, including remaining in a diminished ACC. If there is an option where they could make $8 million more per year, have better exposure than choice B and have a safe home for the foreseeable future, then that will be the choice no matter how distasteful such option is otherwise. They will realistically have no other choice. Just like Utah and AZ St.

And no matter the distaste, the only option that could afford such financial opportunities and continued exposure post 2036 outside the P2 is the Big12(16). And the empty chairs at the Big12(16) table likely numbers 8. If you are not in the P2 you better be in one of those 8 chairs in the new Big24 or your relevance and financial wherewithal is shot.

And this silly talk of the ACC staying together with Memphis, Tulane and UConn, or the ACC raiding the Big12(16) is ludicrous. There is no scenario where the economics could work even if everyone wanted it happen. The length of the ACC contract preventing significant income enhancement opportunities for the ACC schools, the fact that the Big12(16) under its new contract will soon be making more than the ACC even with the ACC Network (mainly due to the difference in each conference's escalator clause), and the size of the exit fees from the Big 12(16), and possibly AAC schools, would not make a move to an ACC sans FSU, Clemson, and probably 2 to 6 morr of the ACC's top brands, financially feasible, much less advantageous. The economics is impossible.

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

Stay together especially with ND agreeing to partner with the ACC through 2037. The question becomes how does the ACC backfill. ESPN & ACC are in the "look-in" and discussing that moving forward. Be prepared for ACC pro rata to be tied to ACC Network and DMA size. Probably good news for USF, SDSU, Oregon State, and bad news for Washington State and UConn.

I frankly have no idea what these acc dooms days posts are about, it makes no sense. Let's look at actual history to guide us:

1. Cal and stanford were NOT added to the big ten and ou and ut were added to the sec with ZERO tag alongs. You can only reasonably come to the conclusion that the standard for being added to the sec and big ten are extremely high.

2. Using this logic, only fsu, clemson, unc, and miami are additive.

3. Here my theory out unc, clemson, fsu to sec and miami to big... in this scenario both conferences need a tag along for even numbers (these tag alongs are not additive but in combo withe their add aren't diluting the pot), let's say it's nc state for sec and gt for big ten.

4. That still leaves stan, cal, smu, Syracuse, bc, Pitt, louis, VT, uva, duke, and wake (plus nd oly sports). That's strong enough to match the big 12, even discluding the GOR, the exit fees are way too high to justify a move.

5. Uconn and USF are obvious and respectable adds that aren't really going to hurt the league at all. Memphis and Tulane aren't awful adds either. The league could go west with the pac 2 or sdsu as well.

In short the demise of the ACC is just not going to happen, it's simply a fantasy.

(05-25-2024 11:22 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

Stay together especially with ND agreeing to partner with the ACC through 2037. The question becomes how does the ACC backfill. ESPN & ACC are in the "look-in" and discussing that moving forward. Be prepared for ACC pro rata to be tied to ACC Network and DMA size. Probably good news for USF, SDSU, Oregon State, and bad news for Washington State and UConn.

UConn, USF and Memphis are probably adequate replacements. Maybe Temple. Maybe Oregon St. & Washington St., but I think the Big 12 and ACC will either mostly merge or rationalize. Stanford and Cal will not stay long term in the ACC. WVU, UCF and Cincinnati make more sense in the ACC.

(05-25-2024 11:26 AM)Formerluerker_redbirdfan Wrote:  I frankly have no idea what these acc dooms days posts are about, it makes no sense. Let's look at actual history to guide us:

1. Cal and stanford were NOT added to the big ten and ou and ut were added to the sec with ZERO tag alongs. You can only reasonably come to the conclusion that the standard for being added to the sec and big ten are extremely high.

2. Using this logic, only fsu, clemson, unc, and miami are additive.

3. Here my theory out unc, clemson, fsu to sec and miami to big... in this scenario both conferences need a tag along for even numbers (these tag alongs are not additive but in combo withe their add aren't diluting the pot), let's say it's nc state for sec and gt for big ten.

4. That still leaves stan, cal, smu, Syracuse, bc, Pitt, louis, VT, uva, duke, and wake (plus nd oly sports). That's strong enough to match the big 12, even discluding the GOR, the exit fees are way too high to justify a move.

5. Uconn and USF are obvious and respectable adds that aren't really going to hurt the league at all. Memphis and Tulane aren't awful adds either. The league could go west with the pac 2 or sdsu as well.

In short the demise of the ACC is just not going to happen, it's simply a fantasy.

To make such comments while ignoring the money realities is more than fantasy, it's delusion.

(05-25-2024 11:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-25-2024 11:22 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

Stay together especially with ND agreeing to partner with the ACC through 2037. The question becomes how does the ACC backfill. ESPN & ACC are in the "look-in" and discussing that moving forward. Be prepared for ACC pro rata to be tied to ACC Network and DMA size. Probably good news for USF, SDSU, Oregon State, and bad news for Washington State and UConn.

UConn, USF and Memphis are probably adequate replacements. Maybe Temple. Maybe Oregon St. & Washington St., but I think the Big 12 and ACC will either mostly merge or rationalize. Stanford and Cal will not stay long term in the ACC. WVU, UCF and Cincinnati make more sense in the ACC.

Everything you say is correct and reasonable. I just think you underestimate cal and stanford. They will fly their teams across the country before joining the byus and Baylors of the world. The big 12 didn't say no to cal and stanford in this last round it is the other way around. I do belive that the back fill adds will be enough as you said and the two leagues will both exist long term

(05-25-2024 11:36 AM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(05-25-2024 11:26 AM)Formerluerker_redbirdfan Wrote:  I frankly have no idea what these acc dooms days posts are about, it makes no sense. Let's look at actual history to guide us:

1. Cal and stanford were NOT added to the big ten and ou and ut were added to the sec with ZERO tag alongs. You can only reasonably come to the conclusion that the standard for being added to the sec and big ten are extremely high.

2. Using this logic, only fsu, clemson, unc, and miami are additive.

3. Here my theory out unc, clemson, fsu to sec and miami to big... in this scenario both conferences need a tag along for even numbers (these tag alongs are not additive but in combo withe their add aren't diluting the pot), let's say it's nc state for sec and gt for big ten.

4. That still leaves stan, cal, smu, Syracuse, bc, Pitt, louis, VT, uva, duke, and wake (plus nd oly sports). That's strong enough to match the big 12, even discluding the GOR, the exit fees are way too high to justify a move.

5. Uconn and USF are obvious and respectable adds that aren't really going to hurt the league at all. Memphis and Tulane aren't awful adds either. The league could go west with the pac 2 or sdsu as well.

In short the demise of the ACC is just not going to happen, it's simply a fantasy.

To make such comments while ignoring the money realities is more than fantasy, it's delusion.

The money will match. I'm so confident in what I've said in its entirety that I don't feel compelled to elaborate further.

(05-25-2024 11:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  WVU, UCF and Cincinnati make more sense in the ACC.

No, thank you.

(05-24-2024 09:59 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-24-2024 08:09 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-24-2024 07:45 PM)Renegade is Stir Crazy Wrote:  What does everyone think that the end game for the ACC schools that are not FSU/Clemson/UNC?

What I mean specifically is even if the ACC refuses to settle, beats FSU/Clemson in Court, and convinces ESPN to extend their deal to 2036 before the 2025 deadline (the "look-in" as Phillips likes to falsely state), all that means is FSU/Clemson have to hold longer to leave. They will leave at some point, whether it is now, 2027, 2030, or 2036. Once they leave, bye bye ESPN deal.

So, the question is, what is the ACC gameplan here long term? More specifically is what is Wake/Pitt/Syracuse/BC and others planning?

I have never understood their logic in any of this. They have to realize their options are very limited, and they have alienated FSU/Clemson. At some point the end is coming, they have to know that no matter what happens with this lawsuit.

A university is a big place with lots of buildings and staff that serve a lot of students.


'Surely.'

Universities have a way of not going anywhere. We talk about schools like they move around, but they don't. And they have great resources, including regiments of donors and lawyers.

The simple answer to your question is that the ACC will exist as long as a group of universities finds its existence useful. Membership is due to hit 18 schools soon. The conference could lose half a dozen of those and remain useful—both to the schools that remain and to schools still looking to join an M2 league with playoff access.

My own impression is that as long as ND is interested in the ACC project, a media partner will be too and the league will continue in some form. As it happens, two very influential universities in California find the ACC project useful, too, as do a battalion of politicians in the state of North Carolina.

As long as someone finds it useful it will be around.



IMO, this thread needlessly duplicates discussion going on in 2 or 3 other active threads. Can our deathless prose be folded into 'What if Clemson, FSU and UNC leave?' or some such?

You’re Kareem Abdul Jabaar!
No kid, my name is Murdoch.

"My dad says you don't try except during the playoffs..."

I think the end game timeline for the ACC will be something like this...

2027
Florida State and Clemson will join the SEC. They will pay whatever they need to pay to make this happen. The ACC will respond by adding UConn and USF.

ACC North
Cal
Stanford
Notre Dame - Olympic Sports
Louisville
Pitt
Cuse
Boston College
Connecticut
Virginia Tech

ACC South
Virginia
UNC
NC State
Duke
Wake
Georgia Tech
Miami
USF
SMU

This is a respectable M2 conference that will obviously compete for hoops nattys and will occasionally (Stanford, Louisville or Miami) have a football team that could contend for a natty in football.

2036
North Carolina and NC State will be the first to go. Cal and Stanford will have their stuff together by then or leave football forever. If they keep playing football, Calfurd joins the Big Ten and the NC brothers join the SEC giving both P2's 20 members. If Calfurd can't make this happen, then Miami and Virginia join the B1G. Notre Dame will still cling to their Independence even then (frankly, its all they have to cling to since Lou Holtz... okay, okay, they did also lose to a "legendary" runner-up USC team that Fresno State almost beat and Texas did beat). So, the ACC will look like this because Notre Dame won't budge and none of this gang adds to a P2 pie slice...

ACC North
Notre Dame - Olympic Sports
Louisville
Pitt
Cuse
Boston College
Connecticut
Virginia Tech

ACC South
Virginia
Duke
Wake
Georgia Tech
Miami
USF
SMU

"If" Notre Dame is willing to lose their snowflake status, then perhaps the B1G adds Notre Dame, Virginia, Miami and ???? (USF/VT/UConn/Big XII) which effectively reduces the conference to Big East featuring Duke hoops as the headliner.

But post UNC, NC State, FSU, and Clemson exodus there is nothing you could even squint at that would add to the 20-teamer SEC pie slices. And in that respect, I think the B1G is better positioned over the next 100 years than the SEC is now, unless the SEC were to poach Nebraska and extend West with Colorado, Arizona, ect. The SEC certainly could do that, and here's what a 24-teamer SEC may look like...

2036 SEC 24 West
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
*Arizona
**Nebraska - Note: B1G could swap for Vanderbilt or Kentucky
Missouri
*Colorado
*Kansas
Arkansas
LSU
Tennessee
Ole Miss - Miss State (merger of two schools... eh I'm trying to come up with new ideas here... there is so much groupthink on here)

2036 SEC 24 East
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Florida State
Clemson
South Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Kentucky

(05-25-2024 11:45 AM)Formerluerker_redbirdfan Wrote:  

(05-25-2024 11:36 AM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(05-25-2024 11:26 AM)Formerluerker_redbirdfan Wrote:  I frankly have no idea what these acc dooms days posts are about, it makes no sense. Let's look at actual history to guide us:

1. Cal and stanford were NOT added to the big ten and ou and ut were added to the sec with ZERO tag alongs. You can only reasonably come to the conclusion that the standard for being added to the sec and big ten are extremely high.

2. Using this logic, only fsu, clemson, unc, and miami are additive.

3. Here my theory out unc, clemson, fsu to sec and miami to big... in this scenario both conferences need a tag along for even numbers (these tag alongs are not additive but in combo withe their add aren't diluting the pot), let's say it's nc state for sec and gt for big ten.

4. That still leaves stan, cal, smu, Syracuse, bc, Pitt, louis, VT, uva, duke, and wake (plus nd oly sports). That's strong enough to match the big 12, even discluding the GOR, the exit fees are way too high to justify a move.

5. Uconn and USF are obvious and respectable adds that aren't really going to hurt the league at all. Memphis and Tulane aren't awful adds either. The league could go west with the pac 2 or sdsu as well.

In short the demise of the ACC is just not going to happen, it's simply a fantasy.

To make such comments while ignoring the money realities is more than fantasy, it's delusion.

The money will match. I'm so confident in what I've said in its entirety that I don't feel compelled to elaborate further.

That right there is the delusion. The ACC cannot match. Its contractually bound until 2036, so the only significant increases the ACC will have each year are the yearly escalator increases in its ESPN media rights contract, which are woefully low and underappreciated on this board as to how bad that is for the ACC, and income increases from the ACC Network. If FSU and Clemson leave, the best, though most likely, outcome is the contract with ESPN stays the same, but if over four schools leave then the ACC could be looking at a substantial hit to its income from both the ESPN media rights contract and the ACC Network.

The point is the ACC cannot match the Big 12(16) for the next TWELVE YEARS, and that is why it is in serious trouble.