Alternate version:

Big East adds Gonzaga, Dayton, and St. Louis.

Pac-12 adds San Diego State, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico

American Athletic adds VCU

C-USA adds Tarleton State

WCC adds Seattle and Grand Canyon

The Atlantic adds Belmont and Charleston.

Missouri Valley adds St. Thomas

CAA adds Fairfield and High Point.

Big South adds Queens.

The OVC adds Kansas City.

The WAC adds North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, and South Dakota State to get to 12 members. They keep their football in the MVFC while the Utah schools continue as associates in the UAC.

The Horizon League adds Omaha.

Denver and Oral Roberts are the last remaining members of the Summit. They pull off a reverse merger with the WCC. Oral Roberts is allowed to leave the WCC in 2028 without penalty, and they effectively swap places with Cal Baptist in the WAC.

The Southland readmits Stephen F. Austin and Abliene Christian

WCC (12):
Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, St. Mary's, Santa Clara, Pacific
Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, San Diego, Denver, Grand Canyon, Oral Roberts/Cal Baptist

WAC (9):
Utah Valley, Southern Utah, Utah Tech, North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Texas-Arlington, Cal Baptist/Oral Roberts

Sacramento State takes their baseball program to the Mountain West while Northern Colorado parks theirs in the WAC. Delaware puts their men's soccer program in the American Athletic. The rest of the Summit's affiliates hook up with the NEC.

(04-11-2024 01:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Atlantic 10 at this point is down to 12 members. Some in the league want to stay put, but ultimately the league adds two schools to get to 14: Belmont and Charleston.

The A-10, factoring in UMass to MAC, would be at 11 members.

(04-14-2024 06:23 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  Alternate version:

Big East adds Gonzaga, Dayton, and St. Louis.

Pac-12 adds San Diego State, Hawaii, San Jose State, Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico

American Athletic adds VCU

C-USA adds Tarleton State

WCC adds Seattle and Grand Canyon

The Atlantic adds Belmont and Charleston.

Missouri Valley adds St. Thomas

CAA adds Fairfield and High Point.

Big South adds Queens.

The OVC adds Kansas City.

The WAC adds North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, and South Dakota State to get to 12 members. They keep their football in the MVFC while the Utah schools continue as associates in the UAC.

The Horizon League adds Omaha.

Denver and Oral Roberts are the last remaining members of the Summit. They pull off a reverse merger with the WCC. Oral Roberts is allowed to leave the WCC in 2028 without penalty, and they effectively swap places with Cal Baptist in the WAC.

The Southland readmits Stephen F. Austin and Abliene Christian

WCC (12):
Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, St. Mary's, Santa Clara, Pacific
Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, San Diego, Denver, Grand Canyon, Oral Roberts/Cal Baptist

WAC (9):
Utah Valley, Southern Utah, Utah Tech, North Dakota, North Dakota State, South Dakota, South Dakota State, Texas-Arlington, Cal Baptist/Oral Roberts

Sacramento State takes their baseball program to the Mountain West while Northern Colorado parks theirs in the WAC. Delaware puts their men's soccer program in the American Athletic. The rest of the Summit's affiliates hook up with the NEC.

I'm not sure the OVC would add UMKC. They're more likely to lose Tennessee Tech and UT Martin to the ASUN and Tennessee State to the SWAC. I also can't see the Summit League collapsing.

Also, if St. Thomas joins the MVC, would they also join the MVFC or remain in the Pioneer League?

(04-14-2024 06:27 PM)VCU1 Wrote:  

(04-11-2024 01:05 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  The Atlantic 10 at this point is down to 12 members. Some in the league want to stay put, but ultimately the league adds two schools to get to 14: Belmont and Charleston.

The A-10, factoring in UMass to MAC, would be at 11 members.

I missed that. The league likely just adds Charleston at that point to go to 12.

My guess at this point is:

Florida St and Clemson to the SEC

USF to the ACC

MWC/PAC-2 merger

AAC backfill uncertain (MTSU/FIU/ODU/GA ST?)

(04-14-2024 07:17 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  I'm not sure the OVC would add UMKC. They're more likely to lose Tennessee Tech and UT Martin to the ASUN and Tennessee State to the SWAC. I also can't see the Summit League collapsing.

Also, if St. Thomas joins the MVC, would they also join the MVFC or remain in the Pioneer League?

The problem with the Summit League is that there is little in their footprint with which they can reload. The Texas schools will choose the Southland; Seattle, Grand Canyon, and Cal Baptist will choose the WCC; no one is moving there from the Horizon; and we know who won the OVC/Summit tug of war when it came to Western Illinois.

I guess the worst case for the OVC would look something like this:
Bellarmine (ASUN) to Horizon
Tennessee State to the SWAC
Little Rock, Tennessee Tech and Tennessee-Martin to the ASUN

Even then that leaves the OVC with seven, with four playing full-scholarship FCS football. The ASUN needs a reason to go beyond 12 first, though. But if the carnage continues with Lindenwood and SEMO to the Summit, then maybe the OVC is gone. Maybe Morehead State can get into the Big South.

UMKC, meanwhile, could join a conference with in-state rivals, still have a in-conference peer in UALR (instead of UNO), and get more access to Illinois in the OVC.

Sometimes it all comes down to timing. If St. Thomas to the MVC happens at the before some leaves the OVC, the Summit will be in trouble as a multi-sport conference first, which may encourage other Summit members to leave before the conference isn't viable anymore.

St. Thomas would likely stay in the Pioneer League - they would not be the only MVC member in the Pioneer (Drake).

(04-14-2024 10:49 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 07:17 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  I'm not sure the OVC would add UMKC. They're more likely to lose Tennessee Tech and UT Martin to the ASUN and Tennessee State to the SWAC. I also can't see the Summit League collapsing.

Also, if St. Thomas joins the MVC, would they also join the MVFC or remain in the Pioneer League?

The problem with the Summit League is that there is little in their footprint with which they can reload. The Texas schools will choose the Southland; Seattle, Grand Canyon, and Cal Baptist will choose the WCC; no one is moving there from the Horizon; and we know who won the OVC/Summit tug of war when it came to Western Illinois.

I guess the worst case for the OVC would look something like this:
Bellarmine (ASUN) to Horizon
Tennessee State to the SWAC
Little Rock, Tennessee Tech and Tennessee-Martin to the ASUN

Even then that leaves the OVC with seven, with four playing full-scholarship FCS football. The ASUN needs a reason to go beyond 12 first, though. But if the carnage continues with Lindenwood and SEMO to the Summit, then maybe the OVC is gone. Maybe Morehead State can get into the Big South.

UMKC, meanwhile, could join a conference with in-state rivals, still have a in-conference peer in UALR (instead of UNO), and get more access to Illinois in the OVC.

Sometimes it all comes down to timing. If St. Thomas to the MVC happens at the before some leaves the OVC, the Summit will be in trouble as a multi-sport conference first, which may encourage other Summit members to leave before the conference isn't viable anymore.

St. Thomas would likely stay in the Pioneer League - they would not be the only MVC member in the Pioneer (Drake).

If the Summit League does collapse, and the OVC is down to 7 members with 4 members who play football, they would backfill with Grand Valley State and Indianapolis. They've been rumored as potential candidates to move up to D1 and the OVC.