(03-29-2024 02:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:49 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:39 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:35 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 10:50 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  B1G is not adding ASU. That ship has sailed. If they are going for a Big 12 team, it would be KU. CU and Utah have as good a shot as ASU at this point.

Also don't see how FSU/Clemson are left out yet NCSU and VaTech get it, unless it's coming from a Carolina guy? Yeah, then that makes perfect sense.

FSU and Clemson would be in the B1G in a blink of an eye if Sankey plays games. Not ideal, but unlikely he sacrifices both.

Remember that, at this time, Utah has not signed the GOR to the Big Xii (think the document they signed says they will sign the GOR once actually in the conference). So, if the invitations go out this spring (after the tournament), Utah doesn't have exit fees and GOR to worry about.

I wonder if that is true of all of the 4Cs. Or the rest of the Big12, for that matter.

It would definitely add a new dynamic to realignment...

I've not read anything like that for the other 3; at the time that item came out, there was something to the effect that everyone would be signing a new GOR when the four join, and that the document would be absent that original 99-year term.

I should think that whatever precedent that TCU established in leaving the Big East after joining but never playing a game in it, would apply to anything that the Four Corner schools attempted to do should they not ever play for the Big 12. It seems to me that it did cost TCU something but I can't seem to find if that was indeed the case, or how much. Perhaps someone here remembers.

It did cost them something. I'm not sure, but I'm thinking $5 million, whereas WVU was $20 million for leaving on short notice with the Big 12 paying half. Standard exit fee was $10 million.

(03-29-2024 02:39 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:16 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 12:40 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'll play. Everyone here is sticking with 20, so I'll do the same. I actually think we could see uneven conferences with the Big 10 at 20 and the SEC at 24 or even vice versa, but I'll use 20 to play along.

SEC: UNC, Clemson, FSU and Miami
Big 10: UVA, Duke
Big 12: VT, NCSU
ACC Remainders: ND, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Pitt, Boston College, Syracuse, Wake, GT, Louisville
ACC Backfills with: USF, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, Oregon St, Washington St, SDSU

Yes, I know that puts the ACC at 17, so there could be one more spot, but I am not sure who the go to would be. USF, Tulane, Temple are all good academic schools in decent markets, and the Big East schools have a history with Temple. Memphis is a solid market with a decent basketball history, and Oregon St/Washington St and SDSU help out Stanford/Cal. SDSU keeps the basketball focus of the remaining schools.

The SEC can claim Florida, get two new AAU schools in UNC/Miami, claim football powerhouses in FSU and Clemson, and also claim adding strong basketball with Miami's Final Four run and UNC, plus where ever Clemson finishes this season. (POtentially 3 final four schools from the 2022-2024 if Clemson beats Bama).

Big 10 gets UVA and Duke, both AAU, strong basketball schools.

Big 12 gets the "little brothers," but quality programs in good regions (I recognize North Carolina politics could impact UNC/State being split though).

UConn. And UConn would accept without thinking twice.

I would imagine that the ACC invites UConn but I'm not sure if UConn would accept. They have a good thing going in the Big East, and they have already shown the willingness to throw their football under the bus.

I would think the ACC would need to invite multiple Big East teams (Marquette, St John's, Villanova) to make it work, and then they have the same issues as the old Big East.

It could happen, of course.

There is no way UConn could turn down a chance to have a home for its football program, be a member of what would be a very good baseball league and share a conference with those schools you list (many of which are strong in hoops).

The Big East is a quality league. But UConn would like this (your) line-up: Notre Dame, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Pitt, Boston College, Syracuse, Wake, Georgia Tech, Louisville, USF, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, Oregon St, Washington St and San Diego State

I think as things stand now (could be wrong).

B1G- FSU, Miami (20)
SEC- Clemson, UNC, Virginia, Kansas (20)
While people think there will be pods of 4 or 5, I think both incorporate flex protect

ACC- 2-4 teams from OSU, USF, UCONN, WSU, SDSU, and Tulane (14/15, 15/16 or 16/17)
B12- 1 team from USF, UCONN, and Memphis (16)
Here for football, I could see pods of 4, but will probably also be flex protect

How many members can the ACC lose, then backfill before they run out of candidates that fit their academic profile? Further, for how long does an ACCN remain profitable between the chord cutting and low ratings? I don't think ESPN has to guess, they know when the jig is up before the ACC makes their first backfill move.

B1G has more fits than the SEC and is already bigger. Assuming that any growth requires an extra round for a conference semifinal, the best scenario is to have a conference with 3 divisions and a wild card spot. So I’ll go with B1G at 21 and SEC at 18 and ACC 24

B1G
- West: UW, UO, USC, UCLA, NEB, Iowa, UMN.
- North: WI, NU, IL, IN, PU, UM, MSU.
- East: OSU, PSU, RU, UMD, UVA, UNC, MIA.

SEC
- MU, OU, UT, A&M, ARK, LSU.
- UF, FSU, Clem, SC, TN, KY.
- MISS, MST, Bama, AUB, VY, UGA.

ACC
- West: Cal, Furd, UU, AZ, ASU, CU
- Central: TCU, SMU, BU, OKSU, KU, ISU
- East: Cuse, BC, Pitt, LVille, WVU, Cinci
- South: VT, NCSt, Duke, WF, GT, UCF

(03-29-2024 10:33 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

I'll play.


In order to determine which schools are left in the ACC, you would first have to determine which schools would be leaving.
The B1G has two spots and the SEC 4.
One further determination, at 20 each the status of Notre Dame would be unchanged.

1-the B1G adds Stanford and Arizona State (big markets, AAU, completes the B1G take over of the PAC

2-The SEC has in a dilemma. FSU and Clemson while the most valuable football properties, don't expand the conference physically or athletically. I'm sending both to the Big 12 where both ESPN and FOX can share the rights of those two schools..

For the SEC, I'm adding UVa, VT, Carolina and NC State.

The new ACC consists of: BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame (in some capacity), Wake Forest, Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU, Rice, Tulane and eventually Vanderbilt.

Louisville also moves to the Big 12 when one the Big 12 teams move to the SEC to replace Vanderbilt.

You really think Rice and Tulane make the ACC and USF doesn’t? USF has 50,000 students and a brand new $350million stadium being built. USF is AAU just like Rice and Tulane. USF has way more upside than those 2 private schools.

I think it’s

FSU
ND
UNC
Miami

All to Big. These schools want a national conference not a small regional one.

(03-29-2024 02:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:49 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:39 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:35 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  Remember that, at this time, Utah has not signed the GOR to the Big Xii (think the document they signed says they will sign the GOR once actually in the conference). So, if the invitations go out this spring (after the tournament), Utah doesn't have exit fees and GOR to worry about.

I wonder if that is true of all of the 4Cs. Or the rest of the Big12, for that matter.

It would definitely add a new dynamic to realignment...

I've not read anything like that for the other 3; at the time that item came out, there was something to the effect that everyone would be signing a new GOR when the four join, and that the document would be absent that original 99-year term.

I should think that whatever precedent that TCU established in leaving the Big East after joining but never playing a game in it, would apply to anything that the Four Corner schools attempted to do should they not ever play for the Big 12. It seems to me that it did cost TCU something but I can't seem to find if that was indeed the case, or how much. Perhaps someone here remembers.

It did cost them something. I'm not sure, but I'm thinking $5 million, whereas WVU was $20 million for leaving on short notice with the Big 12 paying half. Standard exit fee was $10 million.

That is my recollection of what happened with TCU and WVU. Hard to believe that happened longer ago than I realized.

(03-29-2024 01:39 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 01:35 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 10:50 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 10:33 AM)XLance Wrote:  1-the B1G adds Stanford and Arizona State (big markets, AAU, completes the B1G take over of the PAC

B1G is not adding ASU. That ship has sailed. If they are going for a Big 12 team, it would be KU. CU and Utah have as good a shot as ASU at this point.

Also don't see how FSU/Clemson are left out yet NCSU and VaTech get it, unless it's coming from a Carolina guy? Yeah, then that makes perfect sense.

FSU and Clemson would be in the B1G in a blink of an eye if Sankey plays games. Not ideal, but unlikely he sacrifices both.

Remember that, at this time, Utah has not signed the GOR to the Big Xii (think the document they signed says they will sign the GOR once actually in the conference). So, if the invitations go out this spring (after the tournament), Utah doesn't have exit fees and GOR to worry about.

I wonder if that is true of all of the 4Cs. Or the rest of the Big12, for that matter.

It would definitely add a new dynamic to realignment...

(03-29-2024 02:45 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:39 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 02:16 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 12:40 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'll play. Everyone here is sticking with 20, so I'll do the same. I actually think we could see uneven conferences with the Big 10 at 20 and the SEC at 24 or even vice versa, but I'll use 20 to play along.

SEC: UNC, Clemson, FSU and Miami
Big 10: UVA, Duke
Big 12: VT, NCSU
ACC Remainders: ND, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Pitt, Boston College, Syracuse, Wake, GT, Louisville
ACC Backfills with: USF, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, Oregon St, Washington St, SDSU

Yes, I know that puts the ACC at 17, so there could be one more spot, but I am not sure who the go to would be. USF, Tulane, Temple are all good academic schools in decent markets, and the Big East schools have a history with Temple. Memphis is a solid market with a decent basketball history, and Oregon St/Washington St and SDSU help out Stanford/Cal. SDSU keeps the basketball focus of the remaining schools.

The SEC can claim Florida, get two new AAU schools in UNC/Miami, claim football powerhouses in FSU and Clemson, and also claim adding strong basketball with Miami's Final Four run and UNC, plus where ever Clemson finishes this season. (POtentially 3 final four schools from the 2022-2024 if Clemson beats Bama).

Big 10 gets UVA and Duke, both AAU, strong basketball schools.

Big 12 gets the "little brothers," but quality programs in good regions (I recognize North Carolina politics could impact UNC/State being split though).

UConn. And UConn would accept without thinking twice.

I would imagine that the ACC invites UConn but I'm not sure if UConn would accept. They have a good thing going in the Big East, and they have already shown the willingness to throw their football under the bus.

I would think the ACC would need to invite multiple Big East teams (Marquette, St John's, Villanova) to make it work, and then they have the same issues as the old Big East.

It could happen, of course.

There is no way UConn could turn down a chance to have a home for its football program, be a member of what would be a very good baseball league and share a conference with those schools you list (many of which are strong in hoops).

The Big East is a quality league. But UConn would like this (your) line-up: Notre Dame, SMU, Stanford, Cal, Pitt, Boston College, Syracuse, Wake, Georgia Tech, Louisville, USF, Tulane, Memphis, Temple, Oregon St, Washington St and San Diego State

That’s a good point about baseball (and other sports). Isn’t the Big East pretty bad overall outside of Men’s Basketball?

(03-29-2024 05:23 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  I think it’s

FSU
ND
UNC
Miami

All to Big. These schools want a national conference not a small regional one.

I can't speak for everyone on this list, but I believe that to be true in FSU's case. UNC does not strike me as a school actively pursuing a national conference, the old ACC is very regionally minded.

(03-29-2024 09:32 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 09:26 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:01 PM)b2b Wrote:  Why do they need to go anywhere? They can add whoever they want from Tulane, Memphis, USF, etc. they might even be able to pull from the eastern flank of the Big 12.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

If you want to try to assess the situation with Cal and Stanford, the first step is trying to figure out what their various motivations are.

Why did they join the ACC in the first place? They could have gone to the Big12 had they wanted.

And also, I think it's worth paying attention to the fact that Notre Dame lobbied for their admission.

The relationship between Stanford and Notre Dame goes back decades.

And if we look at the rest of the ACC, even if FSU, Clemson and a couple others leave, what's left are mostly former BigEast members, and GT who was in the Metro with several of those schools, and was in the SEC before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_C...p_timeline



So, if FSU, Clemson, NC, and NC State leave, then of the original ACC split from SoCon, we'd basically be looking at Duke and Wake Forest left. So I can see where those who might be under-valuing the former BigEast schools, might be sounding an alarm.

But for the rest of the conference, I think they're just fine being in a conference together.

And one more thing - ND's deal with the ACC essentially gets them a 20% share of the media deal for non-football.

That presumably means that a school who adds only football has the potential to get 80% of the media deal.

So Cal-Berkeley could resolve their travel problems by working out a deal with the ACC to join only for football, and join the BigWest with the rest of their sports. That would be a win-win for them.

(And yes, we're seeing something similar right now with the PAC2 splitting their foot ball and non-football sports into separate conferences - the WCC and the MWC, in their situation. So this isn't without recent precedent.)

I don't know whether Stanford would be interested in that though, due to their long history with Notre Dame. Plus, they likely have a better chance at a Big10 invite in the (distant) future, should things come to that.

Both the ACC and the BigWest have a lot of AAU members. So there's that as well.

So no, the ACC is unlikely to be going anywhere. They have better media deals than the Big12, and a past history together - and, to be honest - they have Notre Dame.

This isn't the mismanagement of current media negotiations like the PAC. This is merely losing a few members and backfilling. We've seen conferences do that time and again, this will likely be no different.

Well done! I would only add that they are also getting rid of the problem children. Where I differ is only see 3 leaving for now and am not sure of the 4th. It could be Virginia, Duke, N.C. State, or Kansas. South Florida waits in the wings if there is a 4th.

Some might ask why these were problem children:
FSU has not been happy for some time and has raised quite the stink.
Clemson is not a bad child per se but they want out too.
North Carolina represents old Tobacco Road culture which has been hard for the former Big East schools to penetrate and hard for independent schools which were added to do the same. Whether UNC leaves with Virginia or Duke or without another ACC school their departure signals new management and that will be needed to make the unit whole.

Hint for ACC: wear green to media days to impress the new management....

(03-29-2024 07:36 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 09:32 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 09:26 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 07:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Concur but would add they could expand with Oregon State or Utah (no GOR) and the ACC would have a Western division of 4 in a 16 full member conference with Notre Dame as a partial.

Three are coming in. If Clemson, FSU, and UNC leave (likely to the SEC in settlement where ESPN is willing to do this to keep the full rights of all, adding UConn in the East replaces the UNC hoops value and adding Utah or Oregon State adds more market and allows for a cost cutting in travel for the West Coast teams all appease the Irish.

It's the smartest move ESPN could make. They lose nothing, pick up an additional late-night option, and gain UConn.

Then the only question is who is #4 for the SEC? If it is Duke or Virginia enter USF. If it is Kansas, no further additions are needed, and ESPN scratches another itch.

In that world if the Big 10 has to go to 20 without Notre Dame. They need a 5th out West for a division. I think they go after Arizona State as the lone PAC school with a decent valuation. It also adds market. Then I think they go after Colorado to connect it all and place them in the Plains division with Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

If you want to try to assess the situation with Cal and Stanford, the first step is trying to figure out what their various motivations are.

Why did they join the ACC in the first place? They could have gone to the Big12 had they wanted.

And also, I think it's worth paying attention to the fact that Notre Dame lobbied for their admission.

The relationship between Stanford and Notre Dame goes back decades.

And if we look at the rest of the ACC, even if FSU, Clemson and a couple others leave, what's left are mostly former BigEast members, and GT who was in the Metro with several of those schools, and was in the SEC before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_C...p_timeline



So, if FSU, Clemson, NC, and NC State leave, then of the original ACC split from SoCon, we'd basically be looking at Duke and Wake Forest left. So I can see where those who might be under-valuing the former BigEast schools, might be sounding an alarm.

But for the rest of the conference, I think they're just fine being in a conference together.

And one more thing - ND's deal with the ACC essentially gets them a 20% share of the media deal for non-football.

That presumably means that a school who adds only football has the potential to get 80% of the media deal.

So Cal-Berkeley could resolve their travel problems by working out a deal with the ACC to join only for football, and join the BigWest with the rest of their sports. That would be a win-win for them.

(And yes, we're seeing something similar right now with the PAC2 splitting their foot ball and non-football sports into separate conferences - the WCC and the MWC, in their situation. So this isn't without recent precedent.)

I don't know whether Stanford would be interested in that though, due to their long history with Notre Dame. Plus, they likely have a better chance at a Big10 invite in the (distant) future, should things come to that.

Both the ACC and the BigWest have a lot of AAU members. So there's that as well.

So no, the ACC is unlikely to be going anywhere. They have better media deals than the Big12, and a past history together - and, to be honest - they have Notre Dame.

This isn't the mismanagement of current media negotiations like the PAC. This is merely losing a few members and backfilling. We've seen conferences do that time and again, this will likely be no different.

Well done! I would only add that they are also getting rid of the problem children. Where I differ is only see 3 leaving for now and am not sure of the 4th. It could be Virginia, Duke, N.C. State, or Kansas. South Florida waits in the wings if there is a 4th.

Some might ask why these were problem children:
FSU has not been happy for some time and has raised quite the stink.
Clemson is not a bad child per se but they want out too.
North Carolina represents old Tobacco Road culture which has been hard for the former Big East schools to penetrate and hard for independent schools which were added to do the same. Whether UNC leaves with Virginia or Duke or without another ACC school their departure signals new management and that will be needed to make the unit whole.

Hint for ACC: wear green to media days to impress the new management....

There is a reality to this and it isn’t by default.

There has certainly been a growing shift away from the old guard dominance by the Tobacco Road schools whereby UNC has demonstrated their predominant power with governance and other operational decisions.

Enter Notre Dame. Their control of conference decision-making is heading toward a pinnacle. The old BE schools in the ACC welcomed and helped facilitate it. A couple of others have embraced it, including the Demon Deacons. Then the fence-types exist.

FSU won’t embrace any sycophantic role; they’ve recently experienced outcomes to their detriment. Also to the contrary, Clemson knows that being a charter member and a football powerhouse, won’t assure a lofty status in the evolving ACC hierarchy. UNC had one leg pulled off their throne, and it is hidden somewhere in South Bend.

New ACC leadership will come. It will only reinforce what is developing.

The theory:

The new order will be satisfied that FSU, Clemson, and yes, UNC, go. They don’t want the dissenters and the saboteurs of the new order’s agenda. The remaining want the departing schools’ money and that they keep on paying for some years to come. With Notre Dame largely in charge, the BIG will back-off pursing ACC schools. The SEC will have already gotten their three, maybe four.

Who will be the SEC’s #4? From Miami’s AD recent statements, it won’t be the Hurricanes. Duke, NCSU, UVA are questionable for varying reasons, and likely would resist a staggering cost to leave. #4 could come from outside the ACC.

ESPN will be happy with the results. The SEC has their regional expansion and fortification. The ACC settles, with the most discontent about revenue, gone out the door. With the ACC’s GoR, perhaps modified somewhat due to rulings in favor of the departing three, will be sustained to keep the rest in the fold. Notre Dame’s expanded power may cause the BIG to show even greater deference toward the Irish. Notre Dame gets essentially two seats at the P/big boy tables of governance. One being the ACC interests which they dominate, and the continued second one as “officially” a football independent. The media, particularly ESPN, will be all behind that.

(03-29-2024 05:23 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  I think it’s

FSU
ND
UNC
Miami

All to Big. These schools want a national conference not a small regional one.

I agree these four schools addition would be the best scenario for B1G. B1G will be a national conference with most big states covered. The two schools in FL is a must just like the two schools in CA. Only alternative is that if Notre Dame don't bite, B1G might consider adding Syracuse or Georgia Tech instead.

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

You could easily go to 24 with 4 pods of 6 to reduce travel impact.

(03-29-2024 05:23 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  I think it’s

FSU
ND
UNC
Miami

All to Big. These schools want a national conference not a small regional one.

Anyone predicting ND to the Big Ten must be ignoring everything ND has done or said during the past eight months.

(03-30-2024 11:48 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 07:36 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 09:32 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 09:26 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 09:00 PM)ETSUfan#2 Wrote:  If the elite of the ACC bail between the SEC, Big Ten, and Big XII, would Cal and Stanford want to shell out stupid amounts of money, especially for all the non revenue or low revenue sports, to travel cross country for the likes of Memphis and Tulane?

If the ACC that is left after several top tier teams leave is a borderline G5 conference with the ACC logo slapped on, Cal and Stanford might find it better to try and get into the Big XII to at least cut down on likely obsurd travel expenses, or possibly see what happens with Oregon State and Washington State and see if those 2 teams can rebuild the PAC, or use PAC 2 resources to boost the Mountain West.

Both bay area teams have legitimate worries right now about the possibility of having to cut some of their non revenue sports depending on how travel expenses go the next year or so, if OSU and WSU manage go a couple seasons with their Mountain West and WCC interim agreements and not burst into flames by associating with G5 conferences, Cal and Stanford might quietly keep an eye on how the Pac 2/MW deal ultimately shakes out or not.

If you want to try to assess the situation with Cal and Stanford, the first step is trying to figure out what their various motivations are.

Why did they join the ACC in the first place? They could have gone to the Big12 had they wanted.

And also, I think it's worth paying attention to the fact that Notre Dame lobbied for their admission.

The relationship between Stanford and Notre Dame goes back decades.

And if we look at the rest of the ACC, even if FSU, Clemson and a couple others leave, what's left are mostly former BigEast members, and GT who was in the Metro with several of those schools, and was in the SEC before that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_C...p_timeline



So, if FSU, Clemson, NC, and NC State leave, then of the original ACC split from SoCon, we'd basically be looking at Duke and Wake Forest left. So I can see where those who might be under-valuing the former BigEast schools, might be sounding an alarm.

But for the rest of the conference, I think they're just fine being in a conference together.

And one more thing - ND's deal with the ACC essentially gets them a 20% share of the media deal for non-football.

That presumably means that a school who adds only football has the potential to get 80% of the media deal.

So Cal-Berkeley could resolve their travel problems by working out a deal with the ACC to join only for football, and join the BigWest with the rest of their sports. That would be a win-win for them.

(And yes, we're seeing something similar right now with the PAC2 splitting their foot ball and non-football sports into separate conferences - the WCC and the MWC, in their situation. So this isn't without recent precedent.)

I don't know whether Stanford would be interested in that though, due to their long history with Notre Dame. Plus, they likely have a better chance at a Big10 invite in the (distant) future, should things come to that.

Both the ACC and the BigWest have a lot of AAU members. So there's that as well.

So no, the ACC is unlikely to be going anywhere. They have better media deals than the Big12, and a past history together - and, to be honest - they have Notre Dame.

This isn't the mismanagement of current media negotiations like the PAC. This is merely losing a few members and backfilling. We've seen conferences do that time and again, this will likely be no different.

Well done! I would only add that they are also getting rid of the problem children. Where I differ is only see 3 leaving for now and am not sure of the 4th. It could be Virginia, Duke, N.C. State, or Kansas. South Florida waits in the wings if there is a 4th.

Some might ask why these were problem children:
FSU has not been happy for some time and has raised quite the stink.
Clemson is not a bad child per se but they want out too.
North Carolina represents old Tobacco Road culture which has been hard for the former Big East schools to penetrate and hard for independent schools which were added to do the same. Whether UNC leaves with Virginia or Duke or without another ACC school their departure signals new management and that will be needed to make the unit whole.

Hint for ACC: wear green to media days to impress the new management....

There is a reality to this and it isn’t by default.

There has certainly been a growing shift away from the old guard dominance by the Tobacco Road schools whereby UNC has demonstrated their predominant power with governance and other operational decisions.

Enter Notre Dame. Their control of conference decision-making is heading toward a pinnacle. The old BE schools in the ACC welcomed and helped facilitate it. A couple of others have embraced it, including the Demon Deacons. Then the fence-types exist.

FSU won’t embrace any sycophantic role; they’ve recently experienced outcomes to their detriment. Also to the contrary, Clemson knows that being a charter member and a football powerhouse, won’t assure a lofty status in the evolving ACC hierarchy. UNC had one leg pulled off their throne, and it is hidden somewhere in South Bend.

New ACC leadership will come. It will only reinforce what is developing.

The theory:

The new order will be satisfied that FSU, Clemson, and yes, UNC, go. They don’t want the dissenters and the saboteurs of the new order’s agenda. The remaining want the departing schools’ money and that they keep on paying for some years to come. With Notre Dame largely in charge, the BIG will back-off pursing ACC schools. The SEC will have already gotten their three, maybe four.

Who will be the SEC’s #4? From Miami’s AD recent statements, it won’t be the Hurricanes. Duke, NCSU, UVA are questionable for varying reasons, and likely would resist a staggering cost to leave. #4 could come from outside the ACC.

ESPN will be happy with the results. The SEC has their regional expansion and fortification. The ACC settles, with the most discontent about revenue, gone out the door. With the ACC’s GoR, perhaps modified somewhat due to rulings in favor of the departing three, will be sustained to keep the rest in the fold. Notre Dame’s expanded power may cause the BIG to show even greater deference toward the Irish. Notre Dame gets essentially two seats at the P/big boy tables of governance. One being the ACC interests which they dominate, and the continued second one as “officially” a football independent. The media, particularly ESPN, will be all behind that.

The

That all works for me. :)

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

I would think the ACC then poached the B12 and top G5 to stay the #3 P4

(03-30-2024 07:57 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(03-28-2024 06:38 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I personally don't see why the SEC or Big 10 would want to go past 20 because teams hardly even will play each other at that point. And no one is going to agree to a 10-game conference schedule.

The P3
Big 10 - Clemson, Miami
SEC- FSU, Virginia, UNC
Big 12 - Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville.


NACC - Syracuse, Duke, Wake, VT, BC, SMU, Cal, Stanford, Uconn, Memphis.

I think they stand pat at 10 football teams and focus on basketball because there are some potentially good options developing right now. Delaware, Tulane, USF, UNCC, UAB.

I would think the ACC then poached the B12 and top G5 to stay the #3 P4

You really think anyone would pay the Big 12 exit fee to go to the ACC after they lose their top 4-5 brands?

(03-30-2024 06:48 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 05:23 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  I think it’s

FSU
ND
UNC
Miami

All to Big. These schools want a national conference not a small regional one.

Anyone predicting ND to the Big Ten must be ignoring everything ND has done or said during the past eight months.

Well the assumption is that the ACC is gutted enough, Notre Dame no longer finds it attractive.

(03-30-2024 09:33 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-30-2024 06:48 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-29-2024 05:23 PM)Fanofreason Wrote:  I think it’s

FSU
ND
UNC
Miami

All to Big. These schools want a national conference not a small regional one.

Anyone predicting ND to the Big Ten must be ignoring everything ND has done or said during the past eight months.

Well the assumption is that the ACC is gutted enough, Notre Dame no longer finds it attractive.

A wholly ignorant assumption to insinuate that ESPN will simply, with all of the leverage, permit its best product to waltz off to its top competitor. I'd say this the kind of assumption that is made at the end of a long night with your favorite pot heads!