(03-23-2024 12:23 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 09:38 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  No university has an invitation or even a wink/nod, but all the universities are aware of what the P2 value and their chances of an invitation.

FSU’s lawsuit is classic burn-the-bridges approach. They’re confident that if they get out of their ACC commitments at a reasonable price, then they’ll find a home in the P2. I thought that the B1G was their destination…but Clemson’s lawsuit indicates (IMO) that the SEC is their strongly preferred choice. They’re taking the big risk and figure that their built brand equity will override whatever damage is done.

Clemson’s lawsuit is very different. They’re positioning themselves as the #2 (even numbered) expansion candidate. They know that UNC could jump them in the queue, but have determined that UNC is unwilling to be an initiator. They’re probably a break-even financial expansion candidate for the future SEC. In this case, they’re opportunistic.

I think they're a little more than breakeven, but your point is well made. If Clemson is just breakeven, then why in the world are we talking about schools like NC St or UVA? Give me a choice of:

UNC
NC St

or

Miami
VT

or

Kansas
Colorado

And I take Miami/VT, the Flagship AAU schools from the Big 12, or just "none of the above" perhaps. I'm not the only person thinking like this. UNC is probably a 16-0 vote for the SEC, but throw in a tagalong like NC St and they lose almost all of those votes. They should have jumped to the SEC back when the jumpin' was good and they had the option to bring their tagalongs, but that window has now passed.

FWIW, I would be happy with a transformative move to 22 or 24+ P2 conferences. It would allow a quicker end to the turmoil surrounding the ACC.

I believe that the media companies prefer an A4 model (aka P2/M2). Media doesn’t want further college conference consolidation. It’s the schools (such as FSU and UNC) that are pushing the consolidation. FSU is pushing for consolidation out of FOMO; and UNC because they have some leverage.

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

(03-23-2024 08:06 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

As I said, actions speak louder than words.

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

Moving along straight to Big 12.

(03-23-2024 11:39 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  FSU and Clemson have standing invitations to the XII if they want them.

Backup of all backups.

Signed in crayon by the Dudes of WV. Yes.
We've kept them pinned to the fridge with magnets for years.

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

Here's hoping the Cards get a P2 berth. They've got numbers. They can definitely make a media case.

I hadn't considered it, but a similar historical factor may be at work with Miami. The 'Canes have their own P2 chances, as we know, but Florida State and (IIRC) Clemson also played a key role in their admission to the ACC.

Pitt had many friends at Florida State when they got their ACC invitation. Many in the athletic department remembered when it was the Pitt Panthers who were enjoying all the celebrity the Seminoles could only aspire to: perfect seasons, national title, SI covers, Heisman winner. A young Bobby was trying to schedule big names to help build his young program. Nebraska agreed to five games as long as the Seminoles flew out to Lincoln for all five. LSU agreed to five straight games, all in Baton Rouge. The Pitt Panthers agreed to home-and-home, then brought their team to an erector-set Doak to play in a downpour. Pitt didn't have to do it. And this was not forgotten.

Pitt's first game as an ACC member was against Florida State. On national TV. At their place.

(03-24-2024 01:28 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

Here's hoping the Cards get a P2 berth. They've got numbers. They can definitely make a media case.

I hadn't considered it, but a similar historical factor may be at work with Miami. The 'Canes have their own P2 chances, as we know, but Florida State and (IIRC) Clemson also played a key role in their admission to the ACC.

Pitt had many friends at Florida State when they got their ACC invitation. Many in the athletic department remembered when it was the Pitt Panthers who were enjoying all the celebrity the Seminoles could only aspire to: perfect seasons, national title, SI covers, Heisman winner. A young Bobby was trying to schedule big names to help build his young program. Nebraska agreed to five games as long as the Seminoles flew out to Lincoln for all five. LSU agreed to five straight games, all in Baton Rouge. The Pitt Panthers agreed to home-and-home, then brought their team to an erector-set Doak to play in a downpour. Pitt didn't have to do it. And this was not forgotten.

Pitt's first game as an ACC member was against Florida State. On national TV. At their place.

Welp, that bridge must have been burnt because they’re suing FSU as well.

According to Rece Davis and Pete Thamel only Notre Dame and Carolina have a guaranteed slot in the P2.

(03-24-2024 06:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 01:28 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

Here's hoping the Cards get a P2 berth. They've got numbers. They can definitely make a media case.

I hadn't considered it, but a similar historical factor may be at work with Miami. The 'Canes have their own P2 chances, as we know, but Florida State and (IIRC) Clemson also played a key role in their admission to the ACC.

Pitt had many friends at Florida State when they got their ACC invitation. Many in the athletic department remembered when it was the Pitt Panthers who were enjoying all the celebrity the Seminoles could only aspire to: perfect seasons, national title, SI covers, Heisman winner. A young Bobby was trying to schedule big names to help build his young program. Nebraska agreed to five games as long as the Seminoles flew out to Lincoln for all five. LSU agreed to five straight games, all in Baton Rouge. The Pitt Panthers agreed to home-and-home, then brought their team to an erector-set Doak to play in a downpour. Pitt didn't have to do it. And this was not forgotten.

Pitt's first game as an ACC member was against Florida State. On national TV. At their place.

Welp, that bridge must have been burnt because they’re suing FSU as well.

Welp, I'm not seeing any news about Pitt suing any other schools, so feel free to link.

(03-24-2024 07:59 AM)XLance Wrote:  According to Rece Davis and Pete Thamel only Notre Dame and Carolina have a guaranteed slot in the P2.

They're performing a public health service. Anything that helps UNC fans navigate the cognitive dissonance right now is all to the good.

I gotta say that I think a lot hinges on UNC right now. If they want out, I think they have a seat in either league. I think the SEC is their preference and the easiest path out of the ACC is if NC St comes.

At that point, all attention shifts to ND. If it was just FSU and Clemson leaving, I think the remaining ACC + USF would be to their liking, albeit their 5 ACC games would be against very weak competition. The ACC - 4 is a lot weaker and at that point I think they have to consider Big 10 membership long and hard.

This is, of course, working under the assumption that the SEC and Big 10 would be weary of expanding beyond 20. If they are open to a larger organization, it opens a lot more scenarios and a lot more names enter the mix and I think it also increases the chances that the ACC gets gutted to a point where the remainder allies with the Big 12. At 24, I think ND is most definitely in a P2.

(03-24-2024 08:21 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I gotta say that I think a lot hinges on UNC right now. If they want out, I think they have a seat in either league. I think the SEC is their preference and the easiest path out of the ACC is if NC St comes.

At that point, all attention shifts to ND. If it was just FSU and Clemson leaving, I think the remaining ACC + USF would be to their liking, albeit their 5 ACC games would be against very weak competition. The ACC - 4 is a lot weaker and at that point I think they have to consider Big 10 membership long and hard.

This is, of course, working under the assumption that the SEC and Big 10 would be weary of expanding beyond 20. If they are open to a larger organization, it opens a lot more scenarios and a lot more names enter the mix and I think it also increases the chances that the ACC gets gutted to a point where the remainder allies with the Big 12. At 24, I think ND is most definitely in a P2.

I expect both P2 leagues to expand to 24. It makes too much sense. They can create subdivisions and restore some regionality and set up what will function as in-house playoffs.

Someone has to pay, of course, so that's not saying it all happens in the next three years. But once everyone sees how the new revenues and expenses work out in real life, I expect the P2 conferences won't wait long to take up the subject of how to cap things off.

(03-24-2024 08:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 06:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 01:28 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 06:49 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 10:14 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s interesting that Magnificent 7 schools UVA and VT were part of the charge to counter sue FSU.

UNC, NC St, GT, Louisville, Miami, and Pitt either were against the suit or weren’t asked. Same with the Midwestern parochial school.

Louisville was asked, we declined. FSU and Clemson pushed for our invitation to The ACC and we remember.

We won’t participate in either lawsuit. We will, however, be ready to move forward in whatever manner necessary.

Here's hoping the Cards get a P2 berth. They've got numbers. They can definitely make a media case.

I hadn't considered it, but a similar historical factor may be at work with Miami. The 'Canes have their own P2 chances, as we know, but Florida State and (IIRC) Clemson also played a key role in their admission to the ACC.

Pitt had many friends at Florida State when they got their ACC invitation. Many in the athletic department remembered when it was the Pitt Panthers who were enjoying all the celebrity the Seminoles could only aspire to: perfect seasons, national title, SI covers, Heisman winner. A young Bobby was trying to schedule big names to help build his young program. Nebraska agreed to five games as long as the Seminoles flew out to Lincoln for all five. LSU agreed to five straight games, all in Baton Rouge. The Pitt Panthers agreed to home-and-home, then brought their team to an erector-set Doak to play in a downpour. Pitt didn't have to do it. And this was not forgotten.

Pitt's first game as an ACC member was against Florida State. On national TV. At their place.

Welp, that bridge must have been burnt because they’re suing FSU as well.

Welp, I'm not seeing any news about Pitt suing any other schools, so feel free to link.

I already did a few posts up for the Louisville fan

(03-24-2024 08:21 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I gotta say that I think a lot hinges on UNC right now. If they want out, I think they have a seat in either league. I think the SEC is their preference and the easiest path out of the ACC is if NC St comes.

At that point, all attention shifts to ND. If it was just FSU and Clemson leaving, I think the remaining ACC + USF would be to their liking, albeit their 5 ACC games would be against very weak competition. The ACC - 4 is a lot weaker and at that point I think they have to consider Big 10 membership long and hard.

This is, of course, working under the assumption that the SEC and Big 10 would be weary of expanding beyond 20. If they are open to a larger organization, it opens a lot more scenarios and a lot more names enter the mix and I think it also increases the chances that the ACC gets gutted to a point where the remainder allies with the Big 12. At 24, I think ND is most definitely in a P2.

What gives you that impression?

Most of the folks that I know realize that the B1G is a better institutional fit for the Heels. Hopefully Carolina could bring several other ACC schools too.
If the B1G added 4 others (plus ND) the Heels would be as happy as clams (Carolina, NC State, VT, UVa and GT).

(03-23-2024 11:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  FWIW, I don't believe any ACC schools have received P2 invitations, even of an off the record wink-nod variety. The risk of tampering lawsuits is just too high, would be a great way for the ACC to get a share of that B1G or SEC newfound wealth.

That said, I think that should FSU and/or Clemson succeed in their legal efforts to get out of the GOR and exit fees, or negotiate them down to a payable level - neither of which I am optimistic about but if - these schools would find P2 landing spots and exit:

FSU
Clemson
NC

I think all three would go to the SEC, and if they do, I don't think the B1G would want anyone left behind, including Miami and UVA. If the SEC insists on an even-number of acquisitions, it might stop at just FSU and NC. If it needs four, then I think UVA would be up next for them.

Should the B1G, which IMO would only be interested in FSU and NC, succeed in getting one of those two instead of the SEC, then things might open up a bit more. But that is not what I think will happen.

FWIW, despite the fervent desires of the NC government, I don't think NC State finds a P2 spot. Neither the SEC or B1G would take them as a tagalong, IMO.

We'll see.

When you read about how all these things happen, its first a series of discussions between college presidents. For example, Georgia's president approached the Texas president in 1989. Texas chose to talk to the Pac at that time. The Texas president was e-mailing the Ohio St. president about his Tech problem in 2010. Ohio St. let him know Tech would not be admitted to the Big 10.

The presidents talk to each other. FSU and Clemson have been told the SEC and/or Big 10 would look favorably on their application by presidents in those leagues. There's been no vote, but FSU and Clemson are not groping about wishing and hoping. That is simply the way these realignments happen.

I agree that FSU and Clemson are not groping about wishing and hoping. I suspect they are relying on "common knowledge", at least among people who follow college athletics, what we rely on when we make statements about which schools are desirable.

For example, IIRC, this board said for years that if the PAC ever collapsed, Wazzoo and OST would be at the greatest risk to not find a landing spot in another "P", and that's what happened. We just collectively understand who has value based on our understanding of brand, TV ratings, etc. Not that our board speaks with one voice, obviously there are many points of view, but generally speaking.

Similarly, I think FSU and Clemson have read all the "press clippings" about being desirable to the SEC and/or B1G, as has NC. They may well have talked to consultants about their value and P2 prospects as well.

Just MO.

(03-24-2024 08:31 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 08:21 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I gotta say that I think a lot hinges on UNC right now. If they want out, I think they have a seat in either league. I think the SEC is their preference and the easiest path out of the ACC is if NC St comes.

At that point, all attention shifts to ND. If it was just FSU and Clemson leaving, I think the remaining ACC + USF would be to their liking, albeit their 5 ACC games would be against very weak competition. The ACC - 4 is a lot weaker and at that point I think they have to consider Big 10 membership long and hard.

This is, of course, working under the assumption that the SEC and Big 10 would be weary of expanding beyond 20. If they are open to a larger organization, it opens a lot more scenarios and a lot more names enter the mix and I think it also increases the chances that the ACC gets gutted to a point where the remainder allies with the Big 12. At 24, I think ND is most definitely in a P2.

I'm expect both P2 leagues to expand to 24. It makes too much sense. They can create subdivisions and restore some regionality and set up what will function as in-house playoffs.

Someone has to pay, of course, so that's not saying it happens in the next three years. But after everyone sees how the new revenues and expenses work out in real life, I expect the P2 conferences won't wait long to take up the subject of how to cap things off.

IMO, if the P2 do each go above 20, to 24 or whatever, this will inevitably lead to a "hiving off" of those conferences in the future. They will devolve in to two 12-team conferences, or something like that.

IMO, 12 - 14 is the ideal natural conference size, the size that maximizes value and cohesion. I actually worried when the SEC added TX and OU that by going to 16, it was setting itself for eventual hiving, because at 16 you basically have two eight-team conferences gestating inside you. I understood that the SEC could in no way rationally say no to TX and OU, but I still think this move may eventually undo it. IMO the SEC has to take concrete steps to cross-integrate the geographical sectors of the conference to mitigate this. Otherwise and east-west split may happen down the road.

At 20 or 24, I think this inevitable, and then we'll be back to where we were in the 1990s. Maybe the M2 will sit back and watch this, maybe pick up a school or two in the process, and end up back at "P" level.

We'll see.

(03-24-2024 08:31 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-24-2024 08:21 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I gotta say that I think a lot hinges on UNC right now. If they want out, I think they have a seat in either league. I think the SEC is their preference and the easiest path out of the ACC is if NC St comes.

At that point, all attention shifts to ND. If it was just FSU and Clemson leaving, I think the remaining ACC + USF would be to their liking, albeit their 5 ACC games would be against very weak competition. The ACC - 4 is a lot weaker and at that point I think they have to consider Big 10 membership long and hard.

This is, of course, working under the assumption that the SEC and Big 10 would be weary of expanding beyond 20. If they are open to a larger organization, it opens a lot more scenarios and a lot more names enter the mix and I think it also increases the chances that the ACC gets gutted to a point where the remainder allies with the Big 12. At 24, I think ND is most definitely in a P2.

I'm expect both P2 leagues to expand to 24. It makes too much sense. They can create subdivisions and restore some regionality and set up what will function as in-house playoffs.

Someone has to pay, of course, so that's not saying it happens in the next three years. But after everyone sees how the new revenues and expenses work out in real life, I expect the P2 conferences won't wait long to take up the subject of how to cap things off.

What North Carolina seeks, and positioning themselves for, is not consistent with what forum advocates, allegedly giving the impression they represent UNC interests here, are presenting. North Carolina, based on the limited statements and actions so far, are really about, for now, maintaining their future options. This FSU, and now Clemson, disdain, is not being verbalized by North Carolina, the institution.
If North Carolina, even partially supports the option to leave the ACC, as indicators show, why would they be demanding/advocating for excessive terms and financially punitive conditions for schools seeking to tackle the GoR and depart the ACC? North Carolina can’t be motivated by jealousy and greed as to a GoR if they want to be available to accept near future P2 membership offers if they so decide. Why would UNC want to maintain harsh fees for themselves if they purse the option to leave? It is understandable ACC members such as Boston College and Wake Forest and few others don’t want the GoR to change. No P2 is calling them up.

The dilemma for UNC is wanting to sustain their traditional rivalries: Duke, NCSU, WFU, UVA and perhaps one or two others. That is up against moving into a conference offering a heck of a lot more revenue. They can’t have both unless P2 conferences expand to 24+ each. That is very far from being a sort of a guarantee or match the realism of the moment.

I don’t believe North Carolina has settled on the idea they must remain in the ACC and feast on FSU and Clemson exit fees and the relinquishing their rights of their earned revenue to 2036.

A few ACC schools are on the fence hoping for a future P2 offer. North Carolina is not that. They already know the SEC and the BIG would likely add them. If NCSU as a come-along with UNC, that’s a matter for negotiation or a factor that could go either direction per an offer(s).

(03-24-2024 09:47 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 11:49 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-23-2024 09:00 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  FWIW, I don't believe any ACC schools have received P2 invitations, even of an off the record wink-nod variety. The risk of tampering lawsuits is just too high, would be a great way for the ACC to get a share of that B1G or SEC newfound wealth.

That said, I think that should FSU and/or Clemson succeed in their legal efforts to get out of the GOR and exit fees, or negotiate them down to a payable level - neither of which I am optimistic about but if - these schools would find P2 landing spots and exit:

FSU
Clemson
NC

I think all three would go to the SEC, and if they do, I don't think the B1G would want anyone left behind, including Miami and UVA. If the SEC insists on an even-number of acquisitions, it might stop at just FSU and NC. If it needs four, then I think UVA would be up next for them.

Should the B1G, which IMO would only be interested in FSU and NC, succeed in getting one of those two instead of the SEC, then things might open up a bit more. But that is not what I think will happen.

FWIW, despite the fervent desires of the NC government, I don't think NC State finds a P2 spot. Neither the SEC or B1G would take them as a tagalong, IMO.

We'll see.

When you read about how all these things happen, its first a series of discussions between college presidents. For example, Georgia's president approached the Texas president in 1989. Texas chose to talk to the Pac at that time. The Texas president was e-mailing the Ohio St. president about his Tech problem in 2010. Ohio St. let him know Tech would not be admitted to the Big 10.

The presidents talk to each other. FSU and Clemson have been told the SEC and/or Big 10 would look favorably on their application by presidents in those leagues. There's been no vote, but FSU and Clemson are not groping about wishing and hoping. That is simply the way these realignments happen.

I agree that FSU and Clemson are not groping about wishing and hoping. I suspect they are relying on "common knowledge", at least among people who follow college athletics, what we rely on when we make statements about which schools are desirable.

For example, IIRC, this board said for years that if the PAC ever collapsed, Wazzoo and OST would be at the greatest risk to not find a landing spot in another "P", and that's what happened. We just collectively understand who has value based on our understanding of brand, TV ratings, etc. Not that our board speaks with one voice, obviously there are many points of view, but generally speaking.

Similarly, I think FSU and Clemson have read all the "press clippings" about being desirable to the SEC and/or B1G, as has NC. They may well have talked to consultants about their value and P2 prospects as well.

Just MO.

I think the delay between FSU filing suit and Clemson's recent filing also speaks to this. I'm sure many conversations between college athletics administrators over the past few months have involved speculation about what the Seminoles were doing and their prospects for success. Clemson could have sat back to see what happens, instead after months to survey the landscape and collect informal opinions from people in the know, they decided to join the party before the first hearing takes place and dramatically up the pressure on the badly wounded ACC.

These are not the actions of schools who aren't sure they'll have a better home if they succeed in escaping. These are not the actions schools take to achieve a lateral move to the Big XII.

I think Clemson, Florida State, and UNC know they will likely have a spot. I'm not sure who the 4th is though.

(03-24-2024 09:58 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  North Carolina, based on the limited statements and actions so far, are really about, for now, maintaining their future options. This FSU, and now Clemson, disdain, is not being verbalized by North Carolina, the institution.

The UNC BOT chair Preyer called his AD's comments in support of the ACC "disturbing."

If that ain't disdain, I don't know what is.