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I don’t like this matchup. SDSU seems to run a deliberate pace a la North Texas which gave us problems. Rebounding is a strength and they don’t turn the ball over. They also defend the paint and make teams shoot over them whereas we rely on shots down low and fouls that come from that. Saw a metric that we are the highest % win probability of upsetting the higher seed (from 11th seed down) but I don’t see it.

Who do they have besides LeDee?
One guard averaging 10
Two others averaging 9.

Zone d when he’s in. 1-3-1 when he’s out.

Let Yax(and Gaines) play 35 minutes if he’s not hobbled or in foul trouble.

What y’all think?

Unless they have longer guards that play in the post, they don’t exactly have the strongest front court depth if LeDee gets in foul trouble.

(03-20-2024 07:41 PM)blazr Wrote:  I don’t like this matchup. SDSU seems to run a deliberate pace a la North Texas which gave us problems. Rebounding is a strength and they don’t turn the ball over. They also defend the paint and make teams shoot over them whereas we rely on shots down low and fouls that come from that. Saw a metric that we are the highest % win probability of upsetting the higher seed (from 11th seed down) but I don’t see it.

Metrics aside, the biggest positive I see is that we're riding a 5 game win streak and we've been shooting the 3 better than we have all season, I think at about a 40% clip. SDSU has played about .500 ball for over the last month plus.

They obviously have the edge in postseason experience, but they've been comfortably in the field for weeks now, while we've been playing to win or go home. They are beatable, if we play as well as we did last week.

Any idea what uniforms they'll go with? I'm assuming either Green or Black, and while I do like the Gray Birmingham jersey, I hate when it's a Gray vs White game - bad color matchup on TV.

Their guards don't shoot particularly well and aren't very big, so they can't post us up or beat us up one on one, presumably.

We're on a winning streak and have been shooting better than we have all season. Pretty much everyone on the team is playing their best ball, outside of JD.

If ledee has an average game, we can keep their other players in check, we can get the ball past half court and get past their defense, I like our chances. We also have to rebound the ball and get to the ft line.

If their guards come out hitting shots, we get behind a fair amount early, our big men get in foul trouble, and we are turning the ball over bc we have trouble advancing the ball against their pressure, this one could get out of hand in a hurry. And just like UNT, it is HARD to come back against a slow paced, defensive minded team.

I actually like this matchup and expect to win. Doesnt mean we will but we could have drawn a much more menacing first round opponent depending on seeding etc.

The effectiveness of our 1-3-1 and our 3 point shooting will be the keys. They aren't a great shooting team so maybe we can extend the 1-3-1 a little more and took more risk with leaving the corner 3 open to try to create more steals and disrupt their rhythm. On our side, if we can hit 3's like we did in the AAC tournament that opens up the floor so much more for our bigs to operate.

I think it’s a tough matchup that we can win. We’ve proven what kind of ball we can play. Let’s focus on the positives and survive and advance!

Aside from our recent improvement, anything can happen in March. Anything.

vaskez need to go to the basket and their big guy sitting in the bench

UAB (106) vs. San Diego State (20)

San Diego State is 6-4 over their last 10 games. Their record is 24-10 and 11-7.

UAB is 7-3 over the last 10 games. UAB sits at 23-11 and 12-6.

The Aztecs’ worst loss was a recent 4-point beating by UNLV (67). Most of their other nine losses were to teams in the KenPom top 50. Their best win was a 10-point road win at Gonzaga (15). Gonzaga only had one other home loss this season.

KenPom has it UAB 67 - San Diego State 76.

ESPN has San Diego State favored by 6.5.

From Evan Dudley:

https://www.al.com/uab/2024/03/its-banan...grams.html

Good preview.

Also good to see the quote from Yax on his close relationships with the coaching staff.

We are winning this game.

Media Today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LEL2G2dDSo

Let’s go Blazers! Beat the Aztecs!

LeeDee is going to be a problem

Especially if they are gonna call phantom fouls.

I see they aren’t gonna call the bump fouls on them, but god forbid we face guard because then they’ll call it.

There we go. 1 on LeDee

Make your run. He’s on the bench

4 turnovers