We'll know soon enough who makes the cut and whose bubble gets burst. The committee has all day to make their decision. There are no more bubble teams still playing. They can fill out the entire bracket by early afternoon and let the NIT folks make their invitations with time to spare.

It's now just a matter of which regional and sub-regional sites everyone goes to.

I wonder how many teams will decline an NIT invite?

I think St. John’s gets in over Texas A&M.

You look at the Big East, and you feel like they did "the Lord's work" by thinning the herd some. Meanwhile, the SEC, PAC, MWC, ACC, and A10 were like, "ooo, open spots!"

I feel like the committee has a very tough job here assessing NET and whether the metric truly tells them the measure of these programs. And, yes, this is really assessing why some of these dogs have such high measures but some putrid performance (quality wins against other tournament teams, road/neutral performance, etc.).

(If you can't tell, I'm already livid at the thought that Indiana State is probably out of this tournament. And while I'm one who roots for "the little guy," I look at major and non-major alike for why this may have to occur. It's as much Michigan State, Colorado, and TAMU as it is Dayton and FAU to me. Frankly, all five of those should be in the NIT while Indiana State enjoys a chance to win a championship. Don't reward mediocrity just because a quirky, ambiguous metric suggests otherwise.)

Early morning Schmolik 64. My final at larges have been determined.

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2024/3/1...3-17-24-am

I will give you the first rule of brackets and bracketology. Every year there are 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament, no more, no less. The actual number of teams that "deserve" to be in the NCAA Tournament is likely not going to be 68. Depending on who you ask it will be 66 or 67 or 69 or 70. Doesn't matter, there will be 68 teams. Either some teams that deserve to make it aren't getting in or teams that don't deserve to get in are (and with NC State and Oregon stealing spots it will more likely be teams deserving to get in being left out). You have to pick the 68 teams (or the 36 at large teams).

(03-17-2024 09:05 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Early morning Schmolik 64. My final at larges have been determined.

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2024/3/1...3-17-24-am

I will give you the first rule of brackets and bracketology. Every year there are 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament, no more, no less. The actual number of teams that "deserve" to be in the NCAA Tournament is likely not going to be 68. Depending on who you ask it will be 66 or 67 or 69 or 70. Doesn't matter, there will be 68 teams. Either some teams that deserve to make it aren't getting in or teams that don't deserve to get in are (and with NC State and Oregon stealing spots it will more likely be teams deserving to get in being left out). You have to pick the 68 teams (or the 36 at large teams).

Pretty good, but I have a hard time seeing Oklahoma getting in over FAU and others with better metrics that you have out . I'm not sure why Oklahoma is rated highly by you and others; they went 4-12 vs Q1 (33%) and their NET is 46.

So are we now rewarding basketball teams for quality losses? That's ridiculous.

(03-17-2024 08:27 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  You look at the Big East, and you feel like they did "the Lord's work" by thinning the herd some. Meanwhile, the SEC, PAC, MWC, ACC, and A10 were like, "ooo, open spots!"

I feel like the committee has a very tough job here assessing NET and whether the metric truly tells them the measure of these programs. And, yes, this is really assessing why some of these dogs have such high measures but some putrid performance (quality wins against other tournament teams, road/neutral performance, etc.).

(If you can't tell, I'm already livid at the thought that Indiana State is probably out of this tournament. And while I'm one who roots for "the little guy," I look at major and non-major alike for why this may have to occur. It's as much Michigan State, Colorado, and TAMU as it is Dayton and FAU to me. Frankly, all five of those should be in the NIT while Indiana State enjoys a chance to win a championship. Don't reward mediocrity just because a quirky, ambiguous metric suggests otherwise.)

I would love to see Indiana State in, but hard to put them in over Michigan State when they lost to them by 12. I know it was on road but they still lost and by double digits. It also doesn’t help they lost at Bama by 22. If they win one of those games they are in the tourney without question IMO.

(03-17-2024 08:11 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I think St. John’s gets in over Texas A&M.

We are an enigma as usual. With a 45 NET, it could go either way. 7 Q1 wins is more than any school until you get to #20 NET Kansas, who also have 7. 13-10 in Q1/Q2 games is pretty good, too. However, 4 Q3 losses is more Q3/4 losses than any school until you get all the way down to #69 VCU. If they put a lot of weight in playing in and winning a lot of Q1 and Q2 games then we could be an 8 seed. If they put more weight on those bad losses then we could be in the NIT. I wish I could say which way they're leaning, but the Committee seems to change it's criteria from year to year, there's no way to know what matters most to this year's committee until we see the teams announced.

St John's could be an apt comparison for A&M. They're only 4-10 in Q1 games, so 3 fewer wins in the same number of games, but they also only have 1 Q3 loss. So A&M has 3 more Q1 wins and 3 more Q3 losses. Good times!

I do like A&M's top 2 wins: neutral floor vs Iowa St and home vs Tennessee. St John's hasn't beaten anybody in the same stratosphere as either of them. Also A&M was 10-9 in R/N games while St John's was only 7-8. St John's only has 1 win against a surefire NCAAT team in Creighton, while A&M beat Tennessee, (neutral) Iowa St, Kentucky (twice, one neutral and one at home), Florida, and Miss St. Perhaps the above reasons are why the prognosticators have St John's right on the cut line instead of getting a bye?

Interesting tidbit, if Florida wins the SEC Tournament today then A&M will have victories over the Big 12 Tourney champ, the SEC regular season champ, and the SEC Tourney champ.

(03-17-2024 10:06 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(03-17-2024 09:05 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Early morning Schmolik 64. My final at larges have been determined.

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2024/3/1...3-17-24-am

I will give you the first rule of brackets and bracketology. Every year there are 68 teams in the NCAA Tournament, no more, no less. The actual number of teams that "deserve" to be in the NCAA Tournament is likely not going to be 68. Depending on who you ask it will be 66 or 67 or 69 or 70. Doesn't matter, there will be 68 teams. Either some teams that deserve to make it aren't getting in or teams that don't deserve to get in are (and with NC State and Oregon stealing spots it will more likely be teams deserving to get in being left out). You have to pick the 68 teams (or the 36 at large teams).

Pretty good, but I have a hard time seeing Oklahoma getting in over FAU and others with better metrics that you have out . I'm not sure why Oklahoma is rated highly by you and others; they went 4-12 vs Q1 (33%) and their NET is 46.

So are we now rewarding basketball teams for quality losses? That's ridiculous.

OU beat Iowa St at home but the rest of their wins don't impress as much. They're also only 6-8 in R/N games. However, they don't have a single loss outside of Q1 games and they went 9-12 in Q1/Q2 games. Slotting them in the Tourney isn't so much rewarding them for "good" losses so much as rewarding them for not having any Q2/Q3/Q4 losses at all. Houston, UConn, Purdue and Auburn are the only others with no Q2/3/4 losses. 3 of them are #1 seeds, and Auburn is probably a 3. I wonder if OU could have gone 2-7 like Auburn did in Q1 games and rolled everyone else on their way to a 3 seed?

Florida Atlantic isn't going to get much sympathy from me when they blew two Quad 4 games (no at large candidate has) in addition to blowing a game to Quad 3 Temple in the conference tournament.

(03-17-2024 12:42 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Florida Atlantic isn't going to get much sympathy from me when they blew two Quad 4 games (no at large candidate has) in addition to blowing a game to Quad 3 Temple in the conference tournament.

I totally agree, except I do think recency bias might come into play. Although, Carolina was left out last year so maybe you're right.

I think there are still a few other programs better than Oklahoma. If you can't even get to .500 in your conference, I'm sorry, but you should be on the outside looking in. I get there is a current love affair with the Big XII, but frankly my dear, I don't give a damn. The fact 23-win Virginia and 3rd place ACC squad (with wins over Florida and aTm) might get left out for ho-hum Oklahoma just tells me something is very, very wrong with the system.