If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

(03-14-2024 05:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

Maybe, and then when 1 or 2 of their teams develop a football pedigree of many playoff appearances with a growing fan base, their wings get clipped and they get picked up by a power league. The MWC will never become a power league. We saw that 2 decades ago and we saw that recently with the AAC. It is what it is.

The correct answer is never. As is it written in the NCAA bylaws:

"Thou shall never consider a conference to have Power other than those I favor."

I forget which bylaw it is, but it's in there somewhere.

(03-14-2024 06:14 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

Maybe, and then when 1 or 2 of their teams develop a football pedigree of many playoff appearances with a growing fan base, their wings get clipped and they get picked up by a power league. The MWC will never become a power league. We saw that 2 decades ago and we saw that recently with the AAC. It is what it is.

In a Power 2 dynamic, I think the MWC has the same stability as Big 12 teams. No one wants them... and isn't that the mark of a true M3.

(03-14-2024 07:30 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:14 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

Maybe, and then when 1 or 2 of their teams develop a football pedigree of many playoff appearances with a growing fan base, their wings get clipped and they get picked up by a power league. The MWC will never become a power league. We saw that 2 decades ago and we saw that recently with the AAC. It is what it is.

In a Power 2 dynamic, I think the MWC has the same stability as Big 12 teams. No one wants them... and isn't that the mark of a true M3.

I can see some real value to a few of those schools. They are in good markets and if they develop a real brand in the expanded playoffs, they may get moved up. Picture SDSU making the playoffs and maybe getting past the 1st round a few times 4 of 7 years. They start averaging 40k+ attendance as well and draw decent ratings. You telling me Big 12 doesn't consider this down the road? Remember, the expanded playoffs are really going to allow the top of the G5 to be an avenue to build a huge brand.

(03-14-2024 07:35 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 07:30 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:14 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

Maybe, and then when 1 or 2 of their teams develop a football pedigree of many playoff appearances with a growing fan base, their wings get clipped and they get picked up by a power league. The MWC will never become a power league. We saw that 2 decades ago and we saw that recently with the AAC. It is what it is.

In a Power 2 dynamic, I think the MWC has the same stability as Big 12 teams. No one wants them... and isn't that the mark of a true M3.

I can see some real value to a few of those schools. They are in good markets and if they develop a real brand in the expanded playoffs, they may get moved up. Picture SDSU making the playoffs and maybe getting past the 1st round a few times 4 of 7 years. They start averaging 40k+ attendance as well and draw decent ratings. You telling me Big 12 doesn't consider this down the road? Remember, the expanded playoffs are really going to allow the top of the G5 to be an avenue to build a huge brand.

SDSU runs into the same problem UCF runs into. The state is oversaturated with teams. When you list off the Top California programs, they are like 4th or 5th on the list. When you list off the Top Florida programs, UCF is still behind the Big 3 in the majority of college football fans minds.

Can they overcome it, maybe... it would require a decade of consistent success to change that kind of perception.

Are we going to see another tournament with a big bunch of MWC teams getting in and a round of one and done by most of them?

(03-14-2024 07:30 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:14 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

Maybe, and then when 1 or 2 of their teams develop a football pedigree of many playoff appearances with a growing fan base, their wings get clipped and they get picked up by a power league. The MWC will never become a power league. We saw that 2 decades ago and we saw that recently with the AAC. It is what it is.

In a Power 2 dynamic, I think the MWC has the same stability as Big 12 teams. No one wants them... and isn't that the mark of a true M3.

So the MAC is an M3?

(03-13-2024 08:51 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 06:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  When USC/UCLA/Oregon and UW leave the Big 10 for the MWC.

MWC isn't even at AAC level.

How many P5 teams have left their conferences for the AAC? Until recently, the AAC had an edge over the MWC. The MWC hasn't gotten any better (though they will have if OSU and WSU come aboard). But the AAC's decline has been severe. The question is whether the AAC is still at MWC's level.

But neither is close to either the Big 12 or ACC, and there aren't any moves they are likely to make that is going to close the gap in my lifetime. But I'm old, and maybe those two will get weaker over time by losing more of their top teams to the P2. If you are a lot younger than I am, maybe they get to M3 status in your lifetime.

Or, if the P2 grow to 28 teams each, then the weaker teams that get left behind could constitute a new M3 along with the MWC and either the AAC or SBC.

Make no mistake, the AAC is still miles ahead of the other conferences. We still have the markets, the academics, and the tv money. We are firmly at the top and nobody really comes close.

(03-13-2024 08:19 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  Attendance is far less meaningful these days than on-field performance. When and if MWC teams are able to win at least half the time in head-to-head competition against M2 teams, it will make sense to have this conversation.

Agreed, and ticket revenue is probably a better indicator than "attendance".

(03-14-2024 09:23 AM)Thewavefan Wrote:  Make no mistake, the AAC is still miles ahead of the other conferences. We still have the markets, the academics, and the tv money. We are firmly at the top and nobody really comes close.

I'm pretty sure the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC would want to have a few words with you....

I doubt the MWC can ever achieve M3 status, because I don't think there will be a M2 for very long. It seems like it would be in the B1G & SEC's interest to PAC the ACC when the next round of realignment occurs. In the end, I see a P3 situation, where the SEC & B1G have to make room for a bloated Big12. I have no clue what becomes of the PAC2 or the remains of the ACC, but it won't equal P status. SMU seems to be throwing away a lot of money for a front row seat to watch the AAC's demise.

(03-14-2024 07:35 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 07:30 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:14 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 05:39 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  If this 5+9 CFP format is the Top 5 Conference Champions, then MWC just needs to consistently be in the playoff to change their perception.

Maybe, and then when 1 or 2 of their teams develop a football pedigree of many playoff appearances with a growing fan base, their wings get clipped and they get picked up by a power league. The MWC will never become a power league. We saw that 2 decades ago and we saw that recently with the AAC. It is what it is.

In a Power 2 dynamic, I think the MWC has the same stability as Big 12 teams. No one wants them... and isn't that the mark of a true M3.

I can see some real value to a few of those schools. They are in good markets and if they develop a real brand in the expanded playoffs, they may get moved up. Picture SDSU making the playoffs and maybe getting past the 1st round a few times 4 of 7 years. They start averaging 40k+ attendance as well and draw decent ratings. You telling me Big 12 doesn't consider this down the road? Remember, the expanded playoffs are really going to allow the top of the G5 to be an avenue to build a huge brand.

MWC actually merged the best of the WAC with their best which ate themselves apart which made the AAC look better. Same thing happened to the ACC when they took the best AAC schools. The Big 10, the SEC and Big 12 could eat each other up as well.

(03-14-2024 06:39 AM)rtist Wrote:  The correct answer is never. As is it written in the NCAA bylaws:

"Thou shall never consider a conference to have Power other than those I favor."

I forget which bylaw it is, but it's in there somewhere.

Bylaw 9.02.1.1

Quote: Area of Autonomy. An area of autonomy is a legislative provision that provides legislative flexibility to the Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference and Southeastern Conference and their member institutions. The above-mentioned conferences are granted autonomy in these areas to permit the use of resources to advance the legitimate educational or athletics-related needs of student-athletes and for legislative changes that will otherwise enhance student-athlete well-being. The requirements for adoption, amendment and expansion of the areas of autonomy are set forth in Bylaw 9.2.2.1. A legislative provision that is an area of autonomy is identified by a capital letter A. (Revised: 1/20/22)

Interesting question since the MWC covers different territory than the Big XII and ACC. There might be an angle here where they can squeeze into an M3 role.

(03-14-2024 12:25 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:39 AM)rtist Wrote:  The correct answer is never. As is it written in the NCAA bylaws:

"Thou shall never consider a conference to have Power other than those I favor."

I forget which bylaw it is, but it's in there somewhere.

Bylaw 9.02.1.1

Quote: Area of Autonomy. An area of autonomy is a legislative provision that provides legislative flexibility to the Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference and Southeastern Conference and their member institutions. The above-mentioned conferences are granted autonomy in these areas to permit the use of resources to advance the legitimate educational or athletics-related needs of student-athletes and for legislative changes that will otherwise enhance student-athlete well-being. The requirements for adoption, amendment and expansion of the areas of autonomy are set forth in Bylaw 9.2.2.1. A legislative provision that is an area of autonomy is identified by a capital letter A. (Revised: 1/20/22)

But we all already take for granted that the MWC will become the Pac-12 thru a reverse merger. They'll be part of the autonomous 5. The only thing missing is preferential treatment with bowl games and the CFB playoff.

(03-14-2024 12:33 PM)Eichorst Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 12:25 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 06:39 AM)rtist Wrote:  The correct answer is never. As is it written in the NCAA bylaws:

"Thou shall never consider a conference to have Power other than those I favor."

I forget which bylaw it is, but it's in there somewhere.

Bylaw 9.02.1.1

Quote: Area of Autonomy. An area of autonomy is a legislative provision that provides legislative flexibility to the Atlantic Coast Conference, Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference and Southeastern Conference and their member institutions. The above-mentioned conferences are granted autonomy in these areas to permit the use of resources to advance the legitimate educational or athletics-related needs of student-athletes and for legislative changes that will otherwise enhance student-athlete well-being. The requirements for adoption, amendment and expansion of the areas of autonomy are set forth in Bylaw 9.2.2.1. A legislative provision that is an area of autonomy is identified by a capital letter A. (Revised: 1/20/22)

But we all already take for granted that the MWC will become the Pac-12 thru a reverse merger. They'll be part of the autonomous 5. ...

(1) Unless the bylaw is amended to drop them out, and ...
(2) ... only if they all agree to be bound by Autonomy rules.

It might be the case that not all of the MWC can afford to operate under autonomy rules.

(03-13-2024 07:21 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 05:38 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Pretty good conference in basketball and football and now have a partnership with OSU and WSU. They have not been raided since TCU and Utah left, they seem to be getting pretty close to M status to me.

What makes you think basketball will stay like this? Great season but I fully expect a return to crap in the next few years.

lmao, they've averaged between 2 and 3 bids for the past decade, so it's been a decent run of success. I'd hardly label that as crap.

Of course, with a response like that, I wouldn't expect much thought put into your opinions. Seeing that you root for the "P4" makes all the sense in the world.

(03-13-2024 06:54 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Among the P5, attendance varied greatly, I don't see why an M3 would be any different.

No

FWIW - Statistically, football attendance amongst the new P4 has a normal distribution. Based on the past 5 years (2018-23, excluding 2020 Covid), there are a few exceptional programs in terms of attendance (>2-standard deviations from the mean).

Two schools have unusually large attendance (Michigan and Penn State). Seven schools have unusually low attendance (SMU, Duke, Vanderbilt, Houston, Wake Forest, Kansas and Northwestern).

Average attendance of the new conferences:
SEC 77K
B1G 64K
B12 47K
ACC 45K/47K

MWC attendance is much closer to the other G5 conferences, than to the ACC or B12.

#1 thing would be stay together. After that it’s about winning on the field and growing their fan bases/brands.