The ACC does not have many good options.
My guess today
ND, FSU, UM, Clemson to the Big.
UV, NC to SEC
Pitt, UL, NC state, VT to B12.

GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke Cal left to rebuild.
It is possible a couple of the leftovers also added.

add USF, Tulane, Other possibles Or State, Wa State, Memphis, Uconn, Boise, Navy/AF. SD State. Would make sense to build a real East/West conf for scheduling.

Tv deal goes down to 12 to 15 mil per school, lose one auto bid in play off and get aprox 9% share.

2 byes always go to the SEC/Big and each get 3% more from playoff, B12 gets 3rd auto bid no chance at bye spot, and also 2% more from playoff money.

If the Mountain West were to expand to 16 teams by adding Washington State, Oregon State, Memphis and Tulane they would be head and shoulders ahead of every other G5 conference. They would have 8 members with a better MSR (Mean Sagarin Strength Rating) over the past five seasons than the best remaining AAC team (Army).

More germane to this thread is that if the AAC were to lose USF, Memphis and Tulane, they would no longer be attractive to any other G5 school that they would be willing to invite. The media contract they currently enjoy would be gutted to the point where it is no longer better than the SBC, MAC or CUSA's. They might as well stay put with fewer members.

(03-15-2024 11:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the Mountain West were to expand to 16 teams by adding Washington State, Oregon State, Memphis and Tulane they would be head and shoulders ahead of every other G5 conference. They would have 8 members with a better MSR (Mean Sagarin Strength Rating) over the past five seasons than the best remaining AAC team (Army).

More germane to this thread is that if the AAC were to lose USF, Memphis and Tulane, they would no longer be attractive to any other G5 school that they would be willing to invite. The media contract they currently enjoy would be gutted to the point where it is no longer better than the SBC, MAC or CUSA's. They might as well stay put with fewer members.

If the MWC adds Washington State and Oregon State, and that group invites Tulane, Memphis, USF and one other school ... as a Memphis fan, I would strongly want UM to accept the invite.

(03-15-2024 08:49 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(03-14-2024 11:32 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 09:22 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 03:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s starting to look like Clemson may join Florida St in the ACCape.

Let’s say for the moment that those are the only two that move (my Big 10 worst case scenario). This puts the ACC at 15+ND with one more pro rata add.

USF is the odds on favorite for that spot, which brings me to my question: who would the AAC backfill with if they only lose USF?

Is it FIU by default just to keep the FL quota filled?

Is the SBC off limits?

Do they make another run at AFA?

I think if the ACC only loses Clemson and FSU, they either add from the Big 12 or stand pat and try again on the Big 12 in 2031. If they still strike out in 2031 then...maybe? But probably not.

Here's my reasoning: the ACC was extremely reluctant to add anybody they considered lesser (basically everyone outside of the P2 and the Pac), and they were even reluctant to add Pac schools due to travel considerations. If we look at reasonable non-Big 12 schools for the ACC, I come up with 3:

USF
Memphis
UConn

Memphis we can cross off b/c of their Academics. UConn we can cross off b/c they're great where the ACC is already great and bring nothing in the area the ACC really needs help, football. I cross off USF b/c they're a project and bring nothing to either football or basketball, in fact they're a significant negative in both of those, and they're not needed for ACCN purposes b/c in this scenario Miami is still in the fold.

I'd add Tulane to that list probably and the ACC might bend for Memphis, they did for Louisville. Is Memphis academics that much worse? IDK.

But.....

A lot depends if the ACC and Stanford/Cal are committed or if it's a temporary marriage of convenience. Obviously if the CA get a nod from the BIG10 they'll go but it seems they probably won't move for anything less. So that would open up the West Coast and MWC schools along with OSU/WSU.

I do think USF is the obvious replacement for FSU so going back to the original question...I think the AAC takes their time as they have in the past. Their options are dwindling. ODU wouldn't be interested in going alone and I doubt even with MU, App & JMU. I think the SBE schools would be open to a merge and split with the AAC if they ended up losing USF, Tulane and Memphis. Don't know how the western teams would feel about that or what would happen to the academies & WSU.

Is this all you guys ever think about? This kind of talk is what destabilized C-USA, and led to it being torn apart.

Under Aresco, ODU wasn't going to get a second look. Maybe the new commissioner will, but the Texas programs still have fresh memories of ODU divisive actions and commentary. No way the Texas programs would support an ODU invitation. I doubt any program in the Sun Belt would get consideration. Under our current configurations, the AAC and Belt are too different in membership, goals, and philosophy, to be interchangeable.

As for the topic. The AAC doesn't need to add anyone. 13 would be fine. But, when SMU bought their way into the AAC, just to escape conferencing with North Texas, the AAC actually landed Army, which at this moment is a better and more valuable brand than SMU. Of course, everyone outside of the AAC board thought Army stay independent.

The realignment pickings are slim for conferences outside of the P2, which in my opinion is a good thing. The AAC has the membership, markets, media deal, and revenue, to grow into something special again. we just need time and stability. NIL and the Portal is expediting the growth of the AAC. As the AAC enjoys increasing success on the field and courts, these discussions about the need for future additions will fade.

It's probably more you obsessed with ODU than Aresco or anyone else. That type of talk wasn't the cause, it was a symptom. But if you want to keep backfilling from CUSA have at it. Liberty spends better than most in your conference if you can get the presidents on board. If the ACC does get gutted then the AAC probably will as well, possibly including the academies as they're the biggest media draw there.

I have no obsession with ODU, and I keep no tabs on any of ODU's programs. My only concern is that we never share a conference with ODU again. It is fair to say that all of the new AAC Texas members feel the same.

The AAC will not reach the point of having to backfill unless our numbers drop below 12. If it comes to that, the programs remaining in the AAC will find what they need.

(03-15-2024 11:57 AM)ken d Wrote:  If the Mountain West were to expand to 16 teams by adding Washington State, Oregon State, Memphis and Tulane they would be head and shoulders ahead of every other G5 conference. They would have 8 members with a better MSR (Mean Sagarin Strength Rating) over the past five seasons than the best remaining AAC team (Army).

More germane to this thread is that if the AAC were to lose USF, Memphis and Tulane, they would no longer be attractive to any other G5 school that they would be willing to invite. The media contract they currently enjoy would be gutted to the point where it is no longer better than the SBC, MAC or CUSA's. They might as well stay put with fewer members.

UTSA, North Dakota State, Montana, Montana State could work as well to 20.

(03-13-2024 07:45 AM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 07:23 AM)GTFletch Wrote:  By looking at the metrics used on the new ACC mbrs for 2024 (Stanford/Cal/& SMU) we can see what other teams meet these same metrics from XII & G5. The ACC Can lose 4 before they have to add 1. But some of the adds will be determined by protecting ACC Network "In-State Rates" and then new States (Like Texas & Cali) that will add In-State rate subscriptions.

METRICS
1. 3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: That is the average of the three main academic ranks (USN, SR, & THE/WSJ) between only the standardized universe of FBS schools + AAU members, then ranked among the averages. This 3-way average, among a standardized universe, is as good a broad, fair perspective as can be shown.
2. Financial Data: Sports data comes from Knight and EADA filings, all of which are directly from the school. Campus financial data is from IPEDS.
3. FB AP Times Ranked
4. 2023 DC Points (All Sports)
5. TV Market: That is available from 2023–2024 Nielsen rankings (new or not new State for ACC Network)

2024 ACC Adds

Stanford:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #3 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $1.2B
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $157M FB: $32 M MBB: $7M Olympic: $46M
FB AP Times Ranked: 303
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 1412
TV Market: San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#10)

Cal:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #16 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $2.6B
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $114M FB: $34M MBB: $8M Olympic: $29M
FB AP Times Ranked: 200
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 833
TV Market: San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#10)

SMU:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #82 ( R2)
Research Spending: $205M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $79.4M FB: $27.1M MBB: $8.1 Olympic: $25.5M
FB AP Times Ranked: 180
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 279
TV Market: Dallas-Fort Worth (#5)


XII Expansion Teams

Utah:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #62 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $625M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $91M FB: $34M MBB: $10M Olympic: $21M
FB AP Times Ranked: 162
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 741
TV Market: Salt Lake City (#27) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates)State Pop: 3.4M

Kansas:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #75.7 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $386M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $119M FB: $21M MBB: $16M Olympic: $20M
FB AP Times Ranked: 111
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 353
TV Market: Kansas City (#34) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates)State Pop: 2.9M

Oklahoma St:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #105 (R1)
Research Spending: $207M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $100M FB: $29M MBB: $12M Olympic: $23M
FB AP Times Ranked: 282
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 800
TV Market: Oklahoma City (#47) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates)State Pop: 4M

TOP G5 Programs

USF:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #79 ( R1 & AAU)
Research Spending: $405M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $62.3M FB: $18.7M MBB: $5M Olympic: $11.3M
FB AP Times Ranked: 47
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 226
TV Market: Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#12)

UConn:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #68 ( R1)
Research Spending: $207M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $92.5M FB: $18.4M MBB: $24M Olympic: $21.9M
FB AP Times Ranked: 6
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 252
TV Market: Hartford & New Haven (#32) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates) State Pop: 3.6M

Colorado St:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #88 ( R1)
Research Spending: $207M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $59.3M FB: $30.9M MBB: $5.2M Olympic: $10M
FB AP Times Ranked: 43
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 156
TV Market: Denver (#17) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates) State Pop: 5.8M

Tulane seems like such a natural fit for the acc if it has to backfill with g5


Jackson

Tulane's athletic financials are the problem.

Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $34.2M FB: $9.9M MBB: $5.2M Olympic: $17.3M

I had no clue that Tulane spent less then 10M on FB, that would not cut it in the P4. Rice Budget of 42M for their sports program is greater than Tulane's 34M.

(03-15-2024 09:16 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The ACC does not have many good options.
My guess today
ND, FSU, UM, Clemson to the Big.
UV, NC to SEC
Pitt, UL, NC state, VT to B12.

GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke Cal left to rebuild.
It is possible a couple of the leftovers also added.

add USF, Tulane, Other possibles Or State, Wa State, Memphis, Uconn, Boise, Navy/AF. SD State. Would make sense to build a real East/West conf for scheduling.

Tv deal goes down to 12 to 15 mil per school, lose one auto bid in play off and get aprox 9% share.

2 byes always go to the SEC/Big and each get 3% more from playoff, B12 gets 3rd auto bid no chance at bye spot, and also 2% more from playoff money.

In your scenario, the BIG does not take UTAH. Not sure if you have been tracking but Utah can leave the XII any time, they did not sign the 99 year GOR like Colorado did. Also the ACC makes more money than the Big12 so I am not so sure that Pitt, UL, NC state, VT would go to B12 to make less money but I will play along.

So if GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke, and Cal were left to rebuild. That means that 10 ACC teams have to pay the exit fee (maybe more), the exit fee alone would be a windfall of $1.1B or each of the 8 remaining teams would get a minimum of $195M. So that probably keeps more in the ACC.

Utah (would be the first team asked!)
Washington St
Oregon St
USF
UCONN
Colorado St
Temple

But to be more realistic lets say during the next TV contract ND, FSU, UM, Clemson go to the Big and UV, NC to SEC. That would be six departures and the remaining teams would collect over 780M in exit fees or 87M per remaining team and they would still have 12 members and would only have to add 3 to keep the ESPN contract at the rate that pays them more than XII.

You also have FSU & UM leaving so the ACC would add USF to keep the state of Florida

1. USF
2. Utah
3. Colorado St.

So the new look ACC would be: Pitt, UL, NC state, VT, GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke, Cal, USF, Utah, Colorado St.

They would still make more money from than the XII.

(03-13-2024 12:20 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 11:00 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  AAC's primary attraction is it has a decent TV deal, particularly much better than what CUSA has right now.

If they lose 4+ teams that AAC TV deal is history and the conference likely splits up.

Where exactly are they "splitting" to? If they were to lose 4-6 more teams they still have 8-10 members left and another likely 60-80 million or more in exit fees paid out on top of the exit fees still due from the former departing members. Unless you believe the rest of the AAC at that point would agree to dissolve the league and split the assets what would the remaining members gain from paying the exit fee and going to I guess the Sun-Belt at that point? C-USA didn't die getting down to 4 and having a minimal exit fee war chest and tournament credits to save, why would the AAC die instead?

I mean even if BOTH Memphis and USF were to hypothetically replace FSU and Clemson the AAC would still have 12 teams for football and 11 for basketball. It would take A LOT for the AAC to actually die. Not only would teams need to leave for either the ACC or XII but others would then need to see the Sun Belt/MWC/MAC as better options and jump while those conferences had openings to give because they don't want to get stuck which most likely won't happen.

I know some teams think that the MAC or MWC or SBC are going to pull apart a broken down AAC but I think that could realistically only happen is if the AAC loses a certain amount of members that ESPN can pull the plug on the deal and save money by just not paying the AAC what is owed.

(03-16-2024 07:16 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(03-15-2024 09:16 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The ACC does not have many good options.
My guess today
ND, FSU, UM, Clemson to the Big.
UV, NC to SEC
Pitt, UL, NC state, VT to B12.

GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke Cal left to rebuild.
It is possible a couple of the leftovers also added.

add USF, Tulane, Other possibles Or State, Wa State, Memphis, Uconn, Boise, Navy/AF. SD State. Would make sense to build a real East/West conf for scheduling.

Tv deal goes down to 12 to 15 mil per school, lose one auto bid in play off and get aprox 9% share.

2 byes always go to the SEC/Big and each get 3% more from playoff, B12 gets 3rd auto bid no chance at bye spot, and also 2% more from playoff money.

In your scenario, the BIG does not take UTAH. Not sure if you have been tracking but Utah can leave the XII any time, they did not sign the 99 year GOR like Colorado did. Also the ACC makes more money than the Big12 so I am not so sure that Pitt, UL, NC state, VT would go to B12 to make less money but I will play along.

So if GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke, and Cal were left to rebuild. That means that 10 ACC teams have to pay the exit fee (maybe more), the exit fee alone would be a windfall of $1.1B or each of the 8 remaining teams would get a minimum of $195M. So that probably keeps more in the ACC.

Utah (would be the first team asked!)
Washington St
Oregon St
USF
UCONN
Colorado St
Temple

But to be more realistic lets say during the next TV contract ND, FSU, UM, Clemson go to the Big and UV, NC to SEC. That would be six departures and the remaining teams would collect over 780M in exit fees or 87M per remaining team and they would still have 12 members and would only have to add 3 to keep the ESPN contract at the rate that pays them more than XII.

You also have FSU & UM leaving so the ACC would add USF to keep the state of Florida

1. USF
2. Utah
3. Colorado St.

So the new look ACC would be: Pitt, UL, NC state, VT, GT, Wake, Cuse, BC, Stanford, SMU, Duke, Cal, USF, Utah, Colorado St.

They would still make more money from than the XII.

ESPN does not renew in 2027 if that happens. They would be getting robbed having to continue paying the same with that conference.

(03-12-2024 05:01 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  The only school that was mentioned alongside Army as SMU's replacement was Appalachian State.

Source (Dennis Dodd, CBS): https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-for-smu/

I would be surprised if we left the SBC for the AAC though. We've put so much effort into building the SBC, leaving it would be pretty shocking. We would probably go from being a leading voice in the SBC to being just another voice in the room in the AAC.

I'm of the opinion that if the AAC wants one out of App State, Marshall, JMU, or ODU, they might have to take all four. Those schools seem to be very intertwined.

I have zero desire to leave the SBC, unless we'd have the above scenario and get App State, Marshall, JMU, ODU, ECU, Army, Navy, Temple all together. Honestly Coastal could join that list with how much they've grown. Plus their baseball.

I could give a rip about UNC-Charlotte and their 3rd person ghost.

The only way it makes sense is a power play to make a best of the rest to match the new PAC (that absorbs the MWC, which would go away). And if it came with a significant pay bump, better bowl tie-ins, and a stepping stone to ACC invite if that conference gets decimated and left with BC, Wake, and a bag of peanuts.

(03-16-2024 10:25 PM)ThunderDent Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 05:01 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  The only school that was mentioned alongside Army as SMU's replacement was Appalachian State.

Source (Dennis Dodd, CBS): https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-for-smu/

I would be surprised if we left the SBC for the AAC though. We've put so much effort into building the SBC, leaving it would be pretty shocking. We would probably go from being a leading voice in the SBC to being just another voice in the room in the AAC.

I'm of the opinion that if the AAC wants one out of App State, Marshall, JMU, or ODU, they might have to take all four. Those schools seem to be very intertwined.

I have zero desire to leave the SBC, unless we'd have the above scenario and get App State, Marshall, JMU, ODU, ECU, Army, Navy, Temple all together. Honestly Coastal could join that list with how much they've grown. Plus their baseball.

I could give a rip about UNC-Charlotte and their 3rd person ghost.

The only way it makes sense is a power play to make a best of the rest to match the new PAC (that absorbs the MWC, which would go away). And if it came with a significant pay bump, better bowl tie-ins, and a stepping stone to ACC invite if that conference gets decimated and left with BC, Wake, and a bag of peanuts.

Good thing your happy in the Belt, cause that ain't happening.