RE: Murphy: Dartmouth hoops players vote to join local union
Here is how I think this all eventually plays out (over some years), as there is no stopping the designation of almost all D-I athletes as employees (I think D-II will get tested and lose as well).
1. Class action lawsuits for back pay.
Former athletes will sue their former schools for backpay. These will likely hit universities, conferences and the NCAA as a whole. Down the road settlement(s) will be made going back X number of years before today. (We will get those commercials that go like, "Have you or a loved one ever play college sports? You might be eligible for monetary compensation from the SEC/NCAA/Universities of ... Funds and time are limited, contact ... and ... now at ..."). This will cause significant financial stress.
2. Bifurcation of college athletics into employee-athlete sports and non-employee sports
This bifurcation will happen both at the university level, with some opting some opting full or mostly in and others full out, and also within university athletic departments with some sports deemed "performance sports" with employee student athletes and others "collegiate sports" with non-employee student athletes. The latter category will be sports run under different rules than today, with rules designed to not trigger any employee status: largely no recruiting, no specific athletic scholarships or any ties of scholarship to performance, limited time in team activities and practice, very few events outside of class terms (Mid-December until the 2nd week of January could be pretty dead), and so on.
What many of you get wrong is thinking this will only happen at the University level, with say MAC schools opting to go with non-employee teams for their athletic departments, while B1G schools will go with employee athlete teams for their athletic department. What is more likely is to see are splits within athletic departments in D-I, especially FBS. Simply too much time money and effort has been put into their football and most schools also basketball, along with one or two other sports at some places (baseball, softball, ice hockey, e-sports, et al) in possibly one-off situations. Note, a few women's sports other than basketball will get dragged along despite nonexistent revenue for Title IX sake.
G5, FCS and non-football D-I schools will push hard for allowing a bifurcation within athletics. They really only care about football and basketball, but the rest of athletics are simply carried to meet NCAA minimum number of sports requirements and to meet title IX. Note, many FCS could move to a Pioneer type non-scholarship non-employee rules football making them more like the "basketball" schools in D-I.
These same G5 and FCS schools will push for lower scholarship numbers within football. Having only 55 employee players is dramatically cheaper than having 85. If Title IX applies to employee athletes, this will equally reduce the cost of co-dependent women's sports, as you would need 30 fewer scholarship/employee positions in the "revenue free" sports (e.g., you can maybe drop women's track and swimming to non-employee category sports for example). Coaches of course want the full 85 or as close as they can get, along with a slew of walk-ons. But budget control is going to push back saying, 'we can't afford to have a bunch of guys on the payroll who are not playing at least 15-20 snaps; you are going to have to make some choices.'
Long-term (late in this decade), I predict the roster sizes will drop to 75 max, with 55 or 60 the acceptable minimum to allow G5 to stay in the category/division. P5 carrying 15 fewer players will save them $500-750K annually in salary alone, as well as allow better concentration of NIL to players who are actually playing. For G5 schools the savings of having 25-30 fewer players is nearly double that, This also positions everyone better for Title IX and salaries to women playing sports with net negative revenue, as a couple sports can be transitioned to non-employee sports.
Payrolls, TV/Media contracts, other structural factors will have completely replaced regulation as a way to gatekeep who is in the elite group. The question is, can this be managed or will it wind up a free for all, with every school and conference going different directions?
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