JRsec
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RE: Options ahead for Universities, Athletes
(02-28-2024 12:59 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: (02-28-2024 12:42 PM)JRsec Wrote: (02-28-2024 11:33 AM)Gitanole Wrote: (02-26-2024 10:58 PM)bullet Wrote: And the drop seems to be coming really soon. 2025 is 18 years from the 2007 dropoff in birth rates. And as the article mentions, Chinese international enrollment is dropping. Its not just due to relations between the countries, but also due to the remarkable growth of research universities in China. There are good options at home now. I would expect that to be a long term decline. And, of course, China also has its own baby bust coming.
China had its own baby bust built into the system as a matter of policy for decades. India is set to surpass China as the world's most populous country any day now.
New universities sprouting in China do not have a huge impact on the enrolment of international students elsewhere. True, China leaders are concerned to keep more of the country's brains at home (this is actually one goal of its space program). China's best and brightest for the most part still want out. For every Chinese national enrolled in university in Europe or North America, scores and even hundreds wanted that same spot.
Of the Chinese nationals who graduate with advanced degrees from American universities, a very high percentage intend to remain in the States—even though most are still the only children in their Chinese families.
Of course, populous countries exist besides China. India, as noted, is about to take the world lead in population. Have you seen the population figures for Indonesia, Pakistan, and Nigeria? These countries are huge.
US Census Bureau projection as of midsummer 2024
1. China 1,416,043,270
2. India 1,409,128,296
3. United States 336,673,595
4. Indonesia 281,562,465
5. Pakistan 252,363,571
6. Nigeria 236,747,130
7. Brazil 220,051,512
8. Bangladesh 168,697,184
9. Russia 140,820,810
10. Mexico 130,739,927
It remains true today as it has for years: there is no shortage of students internationally who would welcome an opportunity to study in the US. The main thing for the US is not to take this advantage for granted and blow it.
Post Graduate work remains a key access to the learning and taking of innovation from other nations. It reminds of the heady days of the Third Reich when German students studied all over Europe, particularly England and spent a great deal of time riding bicycles all over the country. After the war it was discovered that those bicycle trips were to create hand written maps with key details for military installations and industries, and food and water reserves.
A free nation's avarice is always the best tool to use against it. And it is what happens when industry is the largest political contributor. One mind set has been that if you educate your enemies you open them up to ideas and create a better world. Another mind set is if you educate your enemies you make stronger enemies and weaken your advantages. One mindset is hopeful and the other mindset is practical. It's just a matter of which you believe. The problem is you may be betting your life on wishful thinking.
I'll take our problem of "too many people want to come here" over China's problem of "too many people want to get away from here" any day. China is serving it's purpose pretty well these days though, we tend to do better as a country when we have a common enemy to rally against. They're dangerous-enough to be that common enemy, but not dangerous enough to turn the entire continent into a smoking ember like the fun and relaxing days we all remember and love from the height of the Cold War.
You presented it as a one-way issue. A mistake made by the left and right. It's aways a 2 way issue. There are always pros and cons, risks and rewards. I'm just saying our ability to decide which is greater at a given time has been compromised by greed and therefore our evaluator is broken. When you lose your ability to discern you are always more vulnerable, even more so than during the cold war where mutual suspicion led to mutual verification. Having lived through both, something you haven't done, and having done so in a family directly involved, I'll proffer that blissful ignorance disguised as optimism is far more dangerous than constant suspicion. Nobody wants to use nukes, our enemies don't because the U.S.A. has something they all want, large supplies of potable water amid other abundant natural resources. The new game isn't mushroom clouds it's control of communications and navigation systems and that is acquired by the ability to knock out your opposition's satellites. China successfully tested their microwave weapon against a satellite a couple of weeks ago. That advances their timeline of military operations by a decade. It's always at least a two way street. Education of foreign students has great rewards here and abroad, but it also carries inherent risks, and realignment/consolidation will be looked back upon one day as a defense strategy against hard times in which everyone who looked at the demographics knew what was coming and was scheming to avoid. This time change is in preparation for what the world is facing and not just football or isolated parts of the economy.
WWI led to WWII because of a harsh armistice and reparations. WWII ended with the rebuilding of the adversaries and the prosperity the resulting global baby boom brought to more capitalist systems, and the military industrial complex stayed viable because of proxy wars as superpowers angled for control over nations which either were an attempt by one geopolitical side to extend its boundaries or over access to minerals essential for industry or weapons. The unintended consequence of WWII was the Baby Boom, and now artificial means of keeping that going have played out. When we Boomers are gone those who bank on constant growth are going to lose big time. Systems will collapse.
The sad thing is it should be a new world of opportunities as leverage tips to those with skills needed and growth can be organic again with more resources available to fewer people which should reduce stress upon the planet and public. It's the transition that will be dangerous. Some hold onto power by buying up resources and stonewalling competing industries and some see an opportunity to take. How the transition is handled will determine whether there is broad or regionalized conflict, and those in control of space based communications and weapons systems will be the new supreme power. Making sure that power isn't hegemonic or racist will be the imperative. China's history regarding race is rather alarming.
I suppose the utopian goal for humanity moving forward is to find a way to invest its resources and efforts in working together to manage the planet more effectively and when it takes to space, if it does, to do so as one coordinated effort. I would hope this would not be the result of one government but of many working together. Competition does spur creativity. Like I said, utopian, but shouldn't our dreams always be our goals?
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2024 01:54 PM by JRsec.)
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