(02-22-2024 02:26 PM)C2__ Wrote:  

(02-22-2024 11:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-22-2024 11:32 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Vermont would be in with a 21-6 record, and I don't think they will lose their conference tournament.

USF is in with 20-5 record.
FAU is in with a 20-6 record.
Charlotte, SMU, UAB and Memphis needs to work to get to 20.

Dayton would be in with a 21-5 record. Illinois Chicago and Richmond could get in. VCU, George Mason, UMass and Saint Joseph's need to wotk.

Duke, UNC and Virginia is in.

Houston, Iowa State and Kansas are in.

UConn, Marquette and Creighton are in.

Eastern Washington, Montana Weber State needs work, and win it all.

High Point is favorite to be in.

Purdue is in, and the rest needs work.

Big West needs work, but UC-Irvine is favorite.

Charleston is in.

La Tech and Western KY are favorites for CUSA with Sam Houston and Liberty could steal it.

Oakland, Green Bay and Youngstown State could get the Horizon's bid.

Cornell, Princeton or Yale could get it.

Quinnpiac would get the MAAC.

Akron, Toledo, C. Mich or Bowling Green gets the MAC.

Norfolk State is all theirs for MEAC.

Indiana State and Drake are in.

Utah State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNR, Colorado State are in. Boise State can get in there as well.

Merrimack is leading in the NEC, but there are no clear front runner.

Morehead State is in if they don't lose their tournament.

Arizona and Washington State is in. Others need to work.

Colgate is in if they don't lose their tournament.

Tennessee, Auburn and South Carolina are in, the rest needs help. Alabama only have 19 wins.

SoCon could get 3 in this year. Samford, UNCG and maybe Chattanooga.

McNeese State is the clear front favorite to get the Southland.

SWAC is the laughing stock of D1 with nobody near anybody else in wins.

North Dakota or St. Thomas could win the Summit title, but I think North Dakota would get the nod since St Thomas is still transitition to D1.

St. Mary's, Gonzaga and San Francisco are in.

Grand Canyon is the clear front team to get the WAC bid.

Thanks for the comic relief here. I laughed hard on your ****.

Yeah really, David has been like a standup comedian with his schtick, especially in regards to Boise State.

The thing is this season of college basketball is a comedy show that nobody wants to be in the top 25 as they lose more than 1 game. I bet everybody on this list that I showed are more closer to each other than what Net have them as?

(02-22-2024 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-22-2024 01:31 PM)46566 Wrote:  I think a road win at San Francisco or Saint Mary is all it takes to get Gonzaga in the tournament. Either as of right now is a quad 1 win on the road. Assuming they make it into the WCC finals. Saint Mary should be in but San Francisco needs the auto bid. Assuming no bad loses for any of those 3. Gonzaga on paper has 3 quad 1 games left. @ San Francisco, @ Saint Mary and neutral site against Saint Mary in the finals. Another quad 2 if they play San Francisco in the semis. There only bad loss is against Sana Clara.

I don't think SF gets it. Right now only 1 win against an NCAA team. I think they have to beat the Gaels to make the tourney.

I think it does. Mainly assuming Gonzaga wins both games this week and San Francisco wins it's other games. Gonzaga is in the 20s for net. Though it depends on who they play in the semis. Though I admit they might need help keeping some quad wins to stay in their current quads.

(02-22-2024 08:03 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(02-22-2024 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-22-2024 01:31 PM)46566 Wrote:  I think a road win at San Francisco or Saint Mary is all it takes to get Gonzaga in the tournament. Either as of right now is a quad 1 win on the road. Assuming they make it into the WCC finals. Saint Mary should be in but San Francisco needs the auto bid. Assuming no bad loses for any of those 3. Gonzaga on paper has 3 quad 1 games left. @ San Francisco, @ Saint Mary and neutral site against Saint Mary in the finals. Another quad 2 if they play San Francisco in the semis. There only bad loss is against Sana Clara.

I don't think SF gets it. Right now only 1 win against an NCAA team. I think they have to beat the Gaels to make the tourney.

I think it does. Mainly assuming Gonzaga wins both games this week and San Francisco wins it's other games. Gonzaga is in the 20s for net. Though it depends on who they play in the semis. Though I admit they might need help keeping some quad wins to stay in their current quads.

I think they have to beat Saint Mary's to get a 2nd win over an NCAA tourney team. San Fran isn't sniffing the tourney. That's the problem for Gonzaga. It's Kentucky and nothing else right now.

(02-22-2024 01:45 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wouldn’t rule out Drake as an at-large yet, either. A lot, if not all, of that work hinges on Nevada from here on out, though.

Drake is absolutely in this. No team with the following combo has ever been omitted:
- Multiple Q1 wins
- More Q1/Q2 wins than total losses

If you replace “Q1” with “Top-50” and “Q1/Q2” with “Top-100”, this remains true since the Tournament expanded to 64.

If Drake wins out and loses to Indiana St at Arch Madness, Drake fits the above category. They would be the first team ever omitted with that combination. Also, Indiana St (31 NET) would likely jump back into the top-30, giving Drake a 3rd Q1 win.

Their NET is 44 now, but is projected top-35 if the above plays out. They destroyed Nevada by 20 in Nevada too.

All that said, a lot of things have to come together for that to be true: Nevada remaining Q1, Bradley remaining Q1, & Indiana State winning out. It’s still a longshot with that many factors.

Can UNLV sneak onto the bubble and maybe make 7 possible from the MWC (or even 8 if they are upset in the Final by an at-large outsider)? They have a decent record, especially in conference where it's better than at last one at-large contender (whom they play this weekend). I think if they win out to at least the MWC semis, they have a realistic shot.

I know the Sun Belt isn't the greatest basketball conference, but realizing we'll probably only have one representative, Appalachian State OR James Madison, not both, is sad.

JMU is 25-3, with more wins than any other team in the country right now. Ranked #50 in NET (Q1 Away, Q2 Home). 2 of their 3 losses were to App State.

App State is 22-5. More importantly, the Mountaineers are 3-0 in Q1 + Q2 games, the only team in the country undefeated in Q1 games. Ranked #75 in NET (Q1 Away, Q2 Home).

These are two extremely good teams.

Just asked a Syracuse Beat Writer...D2 games don't count in NET but you obviously lose any benefit of winning by 50 pts too.

I stand corrected

(02-23-2024 10:11 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  Just asked a Syracuse Beat Writer...D2 games don't count in NET but you obviously lose any benefit of winning by 50 pts too.

I stand corrected

also don't count towards your W-L record.

Maui could wind up costing Syracuse a tourney bid. If they had won 1 game there vs D1 school- they'd be looking a lot different.

JMU actually I think can sneak in if they finish with only 4 losses, 5 will be tough.

James Madison seems to hinge on the Michigan State win. Michigan State...just bleh. And Appy has two over JMU.

I'd prefer to see Appalachian State winning Sun Belt and James Madison in a first-four game at the expense of Michigan State, but, a boy can dream...

(02-23-2024 12:07 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(02-22-2024 01:45 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I wouldn’t rule out Drake as an at-large yet, either. A lot, if not all, of that work hinges on Nevada from here on out, though.

Drake is absolutely in this. No team with the following combo has ever been omitted:
- Multiple Q1 wins
- More Q1/Q2 wins than total losses

If you replace “Q1” with “Top-50” and “Q1/Q2” with “Top-100”, this remains true since the Tournament expanded to 64.

If Drake wins out and loses to Indiana St at Arch Madness, Drake fits the above category. They would be the first team ever omitted with that combination. Also, Indiana St (31 NET) would likely jump back into the top-30, giving Drake a 3rd Q1 win.

Their NET is 44 now, but is projected top-35 if the above plays out. They destroyed Nevada by 20 in Nevada too.

All that said, a lot of things have to come together for that to be true: Nevada remaining Q1, Bradley remaining Q1, & Indiana State winning out. It’s still a longshot with that many factors.

I think one of Drake's issue over the final three regular season games are that we know none of those games are against tournament teams. So, even if sweeping Bradley as notches in both the Q1 and Q2 territories, those numbers may not have the best context. But, you're right...win, and it all helps regardless "who" those wins come against.

Presently at 44 in NET, I don't see how winning out the season in those remaining games really sets them up any higher than 4-5 spots in NET (factoring fluidity of those around them with better remaining schedules and potential outcomes). That's still in a rough spot. But, win all the way out, go almost all the way in Arch Madness, and you have something like a 28-6 team with a couple of decent wins...it's also a tad hard to ignore.

(02-23-2024 10:17 AM)TexanMark Wrote:  JMU actually I think can sneak in if they finish with only 4 losses, 5 will be tough.

That's a nice thought. Ideally, I'd like to see App win the conference tournament, beating JMU in the championship game, sending both in the big dance (JMU finishing with only 4 losses).

JMU is up to #48 in NET now, which is some progress, but I realize getting both in is unlikely.