(02-21-2024 11:54 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:39 AM)GreenBison Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:34 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:13 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  If voting rights are just based on membership, the Big 10 (18), SEC (16) and Big 10 (16), have 50 votes right now out of 133 in FBS. If those three grow to 20, thats 60 votes out of 133, and could be seen as a way to keep things "even" (its not the SEC/Big 10 getting more votes, its giving votes to each school).

That could also create considation among the G5.

P4 get one vote per member. G5 get 1/3 per member. 4 for 11/12 team conferences and 5 for 14 teams. Total of 90 votes counting Notre Dame.

I assumed the Weighted Voting Structure would mirror the distribution model

Top tier: Big Ten, SEC
Second tier: ACC, Big 12
Third tier: Mountain West, American
Fourth tier: Conference USA, MAC, Sun Belt

Top Tier Total would be 50% of the vote: So the SEC gets 25% and B1G gets 25%
2nd Tier Total would be 22% of the vote: So ACC gets 11% and Big 12 gets 11%.
3rd Tier Total would be 16% of the vote: So MWC gets 8% and AAC gets 8%.
4th Tier Total would be 12% of the vote: So CUSA gets 4% and MAC gets 4%, and SBC gets 4%

What are you basing the "Tiers" off of? Because SBC is the top G5 football conference.

Yeah I don't know how the SBC will accept Tier 4 when they are dominating the other G5s

No way the SBC will accept less than the AAC or MWC.

Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The Big Ten should own the Rose Bowl. With western expansion, they have all the key players, except may be Stanford.

I'm just not certain how you fit the all-Big Ten Rose Bowl into the expanded CFP. One idea is to divide a 16-team CFP strucute into four REGIONS, with:
- BIG TEN REGION that flows into the Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal - you can call it the "NORTH REGION";
- SEC REGION that flows into the Sugar Bowl CFRP quarterfinal - you can call it the "SOUTH REGION";
- WEST REGION and EAST REGIONS that involve everyone else - Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame, and G5 - that flow into the Cotton/Fiesta and Orange/Peach bowls quarterfinals.


Example using 2023 CFP Rankings but 2024 realignment


NORTH REGION
ROUND 1
Iowa @ Oregon
Penn State @ Ohio State

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Indianapolis: Michigan v. Oregon (Round 1 winner)
Las Vegas: Washington v. Ohio State (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Michigan v. Washington in the Rose Bowl


SOUTH REGION
ROUND 1
Ole Miss @ Missouri
Oklahoma @ Georgia

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Arlington: Texas v. Missouri (Round 1 winner)
Atlanta: Alabama v. Georgia (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Texas v. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl


WEST REGION
ROUND 1
Kansas State @ Oregon State
Tulane @Oklahoma State

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Los Angeles: Arizona v. Oregon State (Round 1 winner)
Houston: Louisville v. Oklahoma State (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Arizona v. Louisville in Cotton Bowl


EAST REGION
ROUND 1
SMU @ NC State
Clemson @ Liberty

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Orlando: Florida State v Liberty (Round 1 winner)
Charlotte: Notre Dame v. NC State (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPSIONSHIP
Florida State v. Notre Dame in Orange Bowl


CFP FINAL FOUR
PEACH BOWL: Michigan (NORTH Winner) v. Arizona (WEST Winner)
FIESTA BOWL: Texas (SOUTH Winner) v. Florida State (EAST Winner)

(02-21-2024 01:06 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 12:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  If it's one vote per conference plus one for Notre Dame, and the B1G and SEC vote one way and everybody else votes the other, then the B1G and SEC will win, 2-9. Because unlike anybody else, they can always just take their ball and go home (leave the NCAA). They would like to have the opportunity to play some games outside the P2, but they don't need to.

True, although I think the desire for actual breakaway is often overstated. Higher revenue shares and more *guaranteed* access are the goals. (I keep saying that those in power actually *don’t* want money to be based on pure performance and this is yet another example.) The threat from the Big Ten and SEC to breakaway is very real, but I still don’t think it’s at a state where it’s a “my way or the highway” line in the sand for the P2… yet.

I agree the B1G and SEC don't necessarily want to leave the NCAA entirely. At some point, I could see them simply ignoring NCAA rules by holding their own post-season tournament by invitation only and keeping all the (substantial) revenue for themselves. I think they would be willing to settle for something much less draconian than that. But that will be their call, not the NCAA's, given the realities of the cosmically changed legal climate that exists for college sports today.

(02-21-2024 03:47 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 01:06 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 12:40 PM)ken d Wrote:  If it's one vote per conference plus one for Notre Dame, and the B1G and SEC vote one way and everybody else votes the other, then the B1G and SEC will win, 2-9. Because unlike anybody else, they can always just take their ball and go home (leave the NCAA). They would like to have the opportunity to play some games outside the P2, but they don't need to.

True, although I think the desire for actual breakaway is often overstated. Higher revenue shares and more *guaranteed* access are the goals. (I keep saying that those in power actually *don’t* want money to be based on pure performance and this is yet another example.) The threat from the Big Ten and SEC to breakaway is very real, but I still don’t think it’s at a state where it’s a “my way or the highway” line in the sand for the P2… yet.

I agree the B1G and SEC don't necessarily want to leave the NCAA entirely. At some point, I could see them simply ignoring NCAA rules by holding their own post-season tournament by invitation only and keeping all the (substantial) revenue for themselves. I think they would be willing to settle for something much less draconian than that. But that will be their call, not the NCAA's, given the realities of the cosmically changed legal climate that exists for college sports today.

Das NCAA ist tod! Morte! Kaput! It's organizing principle was amateurism. At a time when it takes from the wealthiest hoops programs to provide services to those who otherwise could not afford them their voice is silenced by the immediate uncertainty and need of revenue among the larger schools because of SCOTUS rulings which are wholly contrary to the goals and rules of the NCAA. It is an impediment and will ultimately be treated as such, though those of you who love your bureaucracies will cry "last resort" when your institutions leave as well. It is the nature of the world. Some recognize the situation and accept it, others cling to the past until their fingers are kicked free of griping it, and others will praise and remember the old bulb though it was burned out and replaced.

(02-21-2024 11:24 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Weighted Voting Governance makes sense
Tiered Revenue Distribution makes sense

Guaranteed Playoff Bids is hard to swallow...
Most people will take umbrage with the BCS style of predetermined slots based on conference affiliation. I guess, its still better than the B1G/SEC splitting off completely.

I don't see the CFPageant idea winning any popularity contests outside of two conferences with big network connections. Now it seems they're willing to be more objective about things—as long as they have their own seats reserved in advance.

(02-21-2024 02:10 PM)YNot Wrote:  The Big Ten should own the Rose Bowl. With western expansion, they have all the key players, except may be Stanford.

I'm just not certain how you fit the all-Big Ten Rose Bowl into the expanded CFP. One idea is to divide a 16-team CFP strucute into four REGIONS, with:
- BIG TEN REGION that flows into the Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal - you can call it the "NORTH REGION";
- SEC REGION that flows into the Sugar Bowl CFRP quarterfinal - you can call it the "SOUTH REGION";
- WEST REGION and EAST REGIONS that involve everyone else - Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame, and G5 - that flow into the Cotton/Fiesta and Orange/Peach bowls quarterfinals.


Example using 2023 CFP Rankings but 2024 realignment


NORTH REGION
ROUND 1
Iowa @ Oregon
Penn State @ Ohio State

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Indianapolis: Michigan v. Oregon (Round 1 winner)
Las Vegas: Washington v. Ohio State (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Michigan v. Washington in the Rose Bowl


SOUTH REGION
ROUND 1
Ole Miss @ Missouri
Oklahoma @ Georgia

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Arlington: Texas v. Missouri (Round 1 winner)
Atlanta: Alabama v. Georgia (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Texas v. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl


WEST REGION
ROUND 1
Kansas State @ Oregon State
Tulane @Oklahoma State

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Los Angeles: Arizona v. Oregon State (Round 1 winner)
Houston: Louisville v. Oklahoma State (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
Arizona v. Louisville in Cotton Bowl


EAST REGION
ROUND 1
SMU @ NC State
Clemson @ Liberty

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS
Orlando: Florida State v Liberty (Round 1 winner)
Charlotte: Notre Dame v. NC State (Round 1 winner)

REGIONAL CHAMPSIONSHIP
Florida State v. Notre Dame in Orange Bowl


CFP FINAL FOUR
PEACH BOWL: Michigan (NORTH Winner) v. Arizona (WEST Winner)
FIESTA BOWL: Texas (SOUTH Winner) v. Florida State (EAST Winner)

I don’t think we need to go quite that extreme.

I think they want to see the Big 10 and SEC champs receive byes and advance to the Rose and Sugar Bowls.

For the rest of the bracket, I think they want to see their teams dispersed as much as possible to create the possibility to advance multiple teams to the quarterfinals.

Rose Bowl Bracket:
9 Mizz @ 8 Ore (winner faces 1 Mich)


Fiesta/Cotton Bowl Bracket:
13 Arizona @ 4 Texas
12 Oklahoma @ 5 FSU


Orange/Peach Bowl Bracket:
14 Liberty @ 3 Washington
11 Ole Miss @ 6 Alabama


Sugar Bowl Bracket:
10 Penn St @ 7 Ohio St (winner faces 2 UGA)

Bids:
C-USA/ACC/Big 12: 1 ea
Big 10: 5
SEC: 6

Would the P2 be better off getting the best of the rest of the other conferences based on wins, tv viewership and all that, and then break it off as one super conference under one banner for media contract and slot the teams in to North, South, East and West? You could get the best G5 out of the MWC that do good in tv ratings involved. If not? Make three conference a 30 team conference to make 90 which gives you enough content from coast to coast. SEC does not have any teams out west yet. TCU, Colorado or Colorado State, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah California, Stanford, San Diego State or Fresno State, Plus, they don't have teams up north like Louisville, Cincinnati, UNC, NC State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Navy, Delaware, UConn, Army, and the likes.

But, someone did a video that both SEC and Big 10 wants 4 auto bids in the playoffs which would hurt the other conferences big time. If you have two G5 that went 13-0 on the season and a Big 10 or SEC team that went 8-4 or 7-5, and could be beaten by the 2nd 13-0 team? Then the second G5 schools will cry foul, and so will everybody else. It would make the CFP as a joke.

(02-21-2024 01:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:34 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:22 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:13 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:01 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  Wednesday may mark the start of the Big Ten and SEC attempting to more fully exert their power over the sport.

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reports:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...-in-texas/

If voting rights are just based on membership, the Big 10 (18), SEC (16) and Big 10 (16), have 50 votes right now out of 133 in FBS. If those three grow to 20, thats 60 votes out of 133, and could be seen as a way to keep things "even" (its not the SEC/Big 10 getting more votes, its giving votes to each school).

That could also create considation among the G5.

P4 get one vote per member. G5 get 1/3 per member. 4 for 11/12 team conferences and 5 for 14 teams. Total of 90 votes counting Notre Dame.

I assumed the Weighted Voting Structure would mirror the distribution model

Top tier: Big Ten, SEC
Second tier: ACC, Big 12
Third tier: Mountain West, American
Fourth tier: Conference USA, MAC, Sun Belt

Top Tier Total would be 50% of the vote: So the SEC gets 25% and B1G gets 25%
2nd Tier Total would be 22% of the vote: So ACC gets 11% and Big 12 gets 11%.
3rd Tier Total would be 16% of the vote: So MWC gets 8% and AAC gets 8%.
4th Tier Total would be 12% of the vote: So CUSA gets 4% and MAC gets 4%, and SBC gets 4%

I doubt those bottom two tiers are defined by the P2 or P4. My guess is the distribution model may reflect those same percentages in the top tiers---but the G5 money will be awarded to the G5 as a group---and the G5 conferences will be allowed to determine how its distributed among themselves (same as last time). By allowing the G5 conferences to figure it out on their own, it insulates the P2/P4 to a degree from criticism and legal attacks over the G5 distribution system. If in fact the G5 distribution model will have to be agreed upon by all the G5 conferences---then I suspect it will reflect a more equitable split where any differences in annual payouts are based on some sort of merit system (just as they are in the current G5 distribution model).

I don't think they will differentiate among "G" tiers. MWC and AAC are a step above everywhere but maybe football strength, but it is a small step. They want them all lumped together below the top tier for psychological reasons.

I don't think they will try hard to do anything other than merit based differences among the P4. They may ask. I don't think they will go to the mattresses with it.

(02-21-2024 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The next two seasons have already been determined. There is no more negotiation. We are talking about the 6 after that.

(02-21-2024 10:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The next two seasons have already been determined. There is no more negotiation. We are talking about the 6 after that.

You are so literal that you frequently miss the point. What they demand is merely a test case ultimatum for the "duration" of the "next two seasons". If what they want after the next two seasons doesn't get the support they want, they'll have their own playoff and will no longer be a part of this one! Breakaway is coming, Bullet. And ESPN and FOX will both bid on it, and they will pay more for schools which universally will draw a better audience for each game played than this one will. And each will own one of the conference's rights. And if there is a third conference it will be the Big 12 and they'll split that one. Now, the money, the backing, and the general need to be free of those which may oppose full compliance tells me this will happen.

(02-21-2024 10:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The next two seasons have already been determined. There is no more negotiation. We are talking about the 6 after that.

You are so literal that you frequently miss the point. What they demand is merely a test case ultimatum for the "duration" of the "next two seasons". If what they want after the next two seasons doesn't get the support they want, they'll have their own playoff and will no longer be a part of this one! Breakaway is coming, Bullet. And ESPN and FOX will both bid on it, and they will pay more for schools which universally will draw a better audience for each game played than this one will. And each will own one of the conference's rights. And if there is a third conference it will be the Big 12 and they'll split that one. Now, the money, the backing, and the general need to be free of those which may oppose full compliance tells me this will happen.

The breakaway is inevitable at this point. Just a matter of when the ACC cracks open, not if. It'll probably be in the next 2 months or so. I see the ACC settling and FSU paying a buyout. ESPN opts out of their 2027 extension announcing it not long after FSU leaves.

I also see the top of the remaining ACC schools going to the Big 12 and converting the ACCN to the Big12N so ESPN can get more return on their investment. The remaining of the ACC will pull the top of the AAC in and pull in UConn as well.

I'm still holding out hope for KU making it into a P2 but being in a best of the rest hybrid ESPN-FOX conference isn't horrible either. It equates to being on a stool 10 feet from the big boy table is better than being at the back of the back with the G5.

4 guaranteed spots for P2 leagues would seem to work very well with 24-member conferences organised into 6-team divisions.

(02-22-2024 12:18 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  4 guaranteed spots for P2 leagues would seem to work very well with 24-member conferences organised into 6-team divisions.

I think they would each get their division champs in including a 3rd conference, but then we would have 4 at large. I saw an estimate that had a 16 team upper tier playoff valued at 2.5 to 2.7 billion. In that world I can see FOX and ESPN splitting the cost and the coverage. So, 12 fixed slots, and 4 at large, all with brand names strong enough to carry solid ratings.

Only one bid of the 12 team CFP and then 700,000,000 light from expectations. It's as if shade were being cast upon it. If we move to a breakaway where the 2 main networks and 2 main conferences have greater input and control I wonder if suddenly that payout goes up?

The thing about 16 is that with 3 conferences of say 20 each you are talking about 28% of the schools being in the playoff and 60% being in the hunt with 3 weeks to go. That's a lot more interest late in the season from the majority of schools and fan bases.

It seems to me this is where we are heading and at 60 schools you are drawing about 90% of the college viewing market. And with time and familiarity, and some damn good football, that will go up.

(02-21-2024 11:29 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The next two seasons have already been determined. There is no more negotiation. We are talking about the 6 after that.

You are so literal that you frequently miss the point. What they demand is merely a test case ultimatum for the "duration" of the "next two seasons". If what they want after the next two seasons doesn't get the support they want, they'll have their own playoff and will no longer be a part of this one! Breakaway is coming, Bullet. And ESPN and FOX will both bid on it, and they will pay more for schools which universally will draw a better audience for each game played than this one will. And each will own one of the conference's rights. And if there is a third conference it will be the Big 12 and they'll split that one. Now, the money, the backing, and the general need to be free of those which may oppose full compliance tells me this will happen.

The breakaway is inevitable at this point. Just a matter of when the ACC cracks open, not if. It'll probably be in the next 2 months or so. I see the ACC settling and FSU paying a buyout. ESPN opts out of their 2027 extension announcing it not long after FSU leaves.

I also see the top of the remaining ACC schools going to the Big 12 and converting the ACCN to the Big12N so ESPN can get more return on their investment. The remaining of the ACC will pull the top of the AAC in and pull in UConn as well.

I'm still holding out hope for KU making it into a P2 but being in a best of the rest hybrid ESPN-FOX conference isn't horrible either. It equates to being on a stool 10 feet from the big boy table is better than being at the back of the back with the G5.

If the courts and politicians make all athletes for all sports as employees? That means they can't break away, and have to work with all schools.

(02-22-2024 03:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:29 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The next two seasons have already been determined. There is no more negotiation. We are talking about the 6 after that.

You are so literal that you frequently miss the point. What they demand is merely a test case ultimatum for the "duration" of the "next two seasons". If what they want after the next two seasons doesn't get the support they want, they'll have their own playoff and will no longer be a part of this one! Breakaway is coming, Bullet. And ESPN and FOX will both bid on it, and they will pay more for schools which universally will draw a better audience for each game played than this one will. And each will own one of the conference's rights. And if there is a third conference it will be the Big 12 and they'll split that one. Now, the money, the backing, and the general need to be free of those which may oppose full compliance tells me this will happen.

The breakaway is inevitable at this point. Just a matter of when the ACC cracks open, not if. It'll probably be in the next 2 months or so. I see the ACC settling and FSU paying a buyout. ESPN opts out of their 2027 extension announcing it not long after FSU leaves.

I also see the top of the remaining ACC schools going to the Big 12 and converting the ACCN to the Big12N so ESPN can get more return on their investment. The remaining of the ACC will pull the top of the AAC in and pull in UConn as well.

I'm still holding out hope for KU making it into a P2 but being in a best of the rest hybrid ESPN-FOX conference isn't horrible either. It equates to being on a stool 10 feet from the big boy table is better than being at the back of the back with the G5.

If the courts and politicians make all athletes for all sports as employees? That means they can't break away, and have to work with all schools.

Baseball
It very much does not mean that. At all. Baseball just axed scores of Single A clubs a couple of years ago.

(02-22-2024 03:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 11:29 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 10:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-21-2024 01:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Whatever the Big 10 and SEC ask is merely a test case ultimatum for the duration of the next two seasons. They are gauging the next 6 to 10, not the present. These demands define the amount of control and the two seasons which they are obligated for will illuminate the issues of remaining in association with the rest.

The next two seasons have already been determined. There is no more negotiation. We are talking about the 6 after that.

You are so literal that you frequently miss the point. What they demand is merely a test case ultimatum for the "duration" of the "next two seasons". If what they want after the next two seasons doesn't get the support they want, they'll have their own playoff and will no longer be a part of this one! Breakaway is coming, Bullet. And ESPN and FOX will both bid on it, and they will pay more for schools which universally will draw a better audience for each game played than this one will. And each will own one of the conference's rights. And if there is a third conference it will be the Big 12 and they'll split that one. Now, the money, the backing, and the general need to be free of those which may oppose full compliance tells me this will happen.

The breakaway is inevitable at this point. Just a matter of when the ACC cracks open, not if. It'll probably be in the next 2 months or so. I see the ACC settling and FSU paying a buyout. ESPN opts out of their 2027 extension announcing it not long after FSU leaves.

I also see the top of the remaining ACC schools going to the Big 12 and converting the ACCN to the Big12N so ESPN can get more return on their investment. The remaining of the ACC will pull the top of the AAC in and pull in UConn as well.

I'm still holding out hope for KU making it into a P2 but being in a best of the rest hybrid ESPN-FOX conference isn't horrible either. It equates to being on a stool 10 feet from the big boy table is better than being at the back of the back with the G5.

If the courts and politicians make all athletes for all sports as employees? That means they can't break away, and have to work with all schools.

No it doesn't.