I might be oversimplifying it, but wouldn't separating media rights deals for individual sports be the best path forward (via revenue sharing)? Football players get a share of the conference contract. Water polo? Tough luck, be more interesting. If a school is willing to fund your non-revenue sport, then be happy enough with that. It's a blind, rule-based meritocracy.

The networks are actually over paying SEC and Big 10 for lousy football and men's basketball lately. They are not worth that much.

(02-15-2024 04:16 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The networks are actually over paying SEC and Big 10 for lousy football and men's basketball lately. They are not worth that much.

someone should go tell them that, now that DavidSt has set them straight.

(02-15-2024 05:23 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(02-15-2024 04:16 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The networks are actually over paying SEC and Big 10 for lousy football and men's basketball lately. They are not worth that much.

someone should go tell them that, now that DavidSt has set them straight.

The lions in their den's "giggle" at his approach!

(02-15-2024 12:46 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 03:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 02:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  There was one article that said that some preliminary negotiations on the House case were going on.

I think the big NCAA restructure probably works in conjunction with the settlement of that case.

I've tried and I just can't make the math work for the schools to pay all athletes, for football and likely basketball to be autonomous and wholly compliant with the rulings, and for the NCAA to stay funded. If it were a marriage the claim would be irreconcilable differences.

The moment that the courts give the schools "cover" that all students must be paid (And I'm not sure where specifically that "line" gets crossed), is the moment that costs to pay the students will be baked directly into the media deals.

The negotiations become obvious.

Which means that it could be very likely that all of these court cases could upend all (or most) current media deals. I would be surprised if there isn't some clause that sends them back to negotiations if xyz events (in this case court cases affecting money structures), occur.

If the House court decides that football and basketball players are entitled to NIL money for appearing in games, there will be an injunction against further broadcast of games.

ESPN will be stuck playing replays of cricket, cornhole, curling, etc.
ESPN will stop payment to SEC, et al.
SEC might be able to continue to play live games but with huge deficits.

SEC, et al will cobble something together with players to get games back on the air. Players will not want to miss the opportunity to get NIL money that is estimated to be around $30,000 for football and men's basketball players. $10,000 for women's basketball players.

ESPN surely has written into their contracts that the conferences represented that they owned all the rights to the games. That is, the conferences and schools were skimming the player's share. The conferences and schools will be on the hook for past damages, trebled for antitrust.

Nobody, ESPN, Conferences, Schools, players, will go full hard line. They all lose out without TV revenues. Schools will grudgingly give some of TV revenue to players. 10% just like was estimated.

Back damages will be based on this - there will likely be a settlement.

Going forward, there will be negotiations for more refined payments.

(02-15-2024 10:36 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(02-15-2024 12:46 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 03:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 02:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  There was one article that said that some preliminary negotiations on the House case were going on.

I think the big NCAA restructure probably works in conjunction with the settlement of that case.

I've tried and I just can't make the math work for the schools to pay all athletes, for football and likely basketball to be autonomous and wholly compliant with the rulings, and for the NCAA to stay funded. If it were a marriage the claim would be irreconcilable differences.

The moment that the courts give the schools "cover" that all students must be paid (And I'm not sure where specifically that "line" gets crossed), is the moment that costs to pay the students will be baked directly into the media deals.

The negotiations become obvious.

Which means that it could be very likely that all of these court cases could upend all (or most) current media deals. I would be surprised if there isn't some clause that sends them back to negotiations if xyz events (in this case court cases affecting money structures), occur.

If the House court decides that football and basketball players are entitled to NIL money for appearing in games, there will be an injunction against further broadcast of games.

ESPN will be stuck playing replays of cricket, cornhole, curling, etc.
ESPN will stop payment to SEC, et al.
SEC might be able to continue to play live games but with huge deficits.

SEC, et al will cobble something together with players to get games back on the air. Players will not want to miss the opportunity to get NIL money that is estimated to be around $30,000 for football and men's basketball players. $10,000 for women's basketball players.

ESPN surely has written into their contracts that the conferences represented that they owned all the rights to the games. That is, the conferences and schools were skimming the player's share. The conferences and schools will be on the hook for past damages, trebled for antitrust.

Nobody, ESPN, Conferences, Schools, players, will go full hard line. They all lose out without TV revenues. Schools will grudgingly give some of TV revenue to players. 10% just like was estimated.

Back damages will be based on this - there will likely be a settlement.

Going forward, there will be negotiations for more refined payments.

There will be full compliance, an attempt to negotiate damages, NIL is already a fact of life, and pay for play will follow. Schools which subsidize a quarter or more of their athletic budgets will likely drop down and some of those at the lower levels drop out. Those at the upper tier will solider on and clear less.

(02-15-2024 10:36 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(02-15-2024 12:46 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 03:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 02:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  There was one article that said that some preliminary negotiations on the House case were going on.

I think the big NCAA restructure probably works in conjunction with the settlement of that case.

I've tried and I just can't make the math work for the schools to pay all athletes, for football and likely basketball to be autonomous and wholly compliant with the rulings, and for the NCAA to stay funded. If it were a marriage the claim would be irreconcilable differences.

The moment that the courts give the schools "cover" that all students must be paid (And I'm not sure where specifically that "line" gets crossed), is the moment that costs to pay the students will be baked directly into the media deals.

The negotiations become obvious.

Which means that it could be very likely that all of these court cases could upend all (or most) current media deals. I would be surprised if there isn't some clause that sends them back to negotiations if xyz events (in this case court cases affecting money structures), occur.

If the House court decides that football and basketball players are entitled to NIL money for appearing in games, there will be an injunction against further broadcast of games.

ESPN will be stuck playing replays of cricket, cornhole, curling, etc.
ESPN will stop payment to SEC, et al.
SEC might be able to continue to play live games but with huge deficits.

SEC, et al will cobble something together with players to get games back on the air. Players will not want to miss the opportunity to get NIL money that is estimated to be around $30,000 for football and men's basketball players. $10,000 for women's basketball players.

ESPN surely has written into their contracts that the conferences represented that they owned all the rights to the games. That is, the conferences and schools were skimming the player's share. The conferences and schools will be on the hook for past damages, trebled for antitrust.

Nobody, ESPN, Conferences, Schools, players, will go full hard line. They all lose out without TV revenues. Schools will grudgingly give some of TV revenue to players. 10% just like was estimated.

Back damages will be based on this - there will likely be a settlement.

Going forward, there will be negotiations for more refined payments.

Can't wait till the Little Leaguers get paid

(02-13-2024 09:10 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 04:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 12:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It hasn't. Most of the moves being made are heavily reliant upon concrete details. Thanks to the court rulings nobody is really sure which details are still concrete.

Sankey and Petitti are trying to figure those things out. They'll want to know about how much will the cost be for competing at the upper level. And calculating that will involve each sport, its roster size, the way it scheduled, the distances and frequency of having to fly to compete in that sport, officiating costs, the number of allowable coaches, etc. They'll need to know what the legally acceptable pay ranges will be for athletes in general. Will they use contracts to control part of the chaos of the transfer portal which, while not restricted, will require buyouts. And they'll have to decide if football, football and basketball, or all sports move to the upper tier.

If a wholly separate upper tier which is predicated upon compliance with the intent of the courts is to be established, then they'll need to know if that is a sufficiently different entity in its relationship with players so as not to be considered a direct competition with lower divisions. If so, will opt ins be permitted.

And if all of that does transpire what is the size that allows for schools to freely choose to be a part of it. In other words, how many can they reasonable foresee being able to afford to compete at that level.

FOX and ESPN will have to examine all of that to see if it fits with what they are able to pay and whether there will be pay tiers within an upper tier or will all schools choosing to be part of it simply be assimilated into the two top conferences. Will those opting in be used to form a new conference or two, or will the Big 12 and/or the ACC become a template for that lower pay tier in the upper tier?

Such issues could render the FSU legal battle moot and simply free the Noles and others to opt in and be placed or reformed into a new conference.

Some rumors floating around, and they are just rumors, are suggesting big movement prior to the expiration of the first quarter of this year, so by the end of March. I don't know if that will even be possible. What Sankey and Petitti and the group they assemble has to accomplish for that to happen is extensive.

The one thing I do believe to be true is that nothing will happen until Presidents of schools and commissioners of conferences have some solid figures with which to work. Nobody is making a commitment for 10's of millions or more without them. Therefore, I think everything is on hold until these matters are at least a much better-known quantity.

The good thing about all of this is that most of it needs to be worked out by the end of Summer 2025 if it is to be completed before the contract renewal on the expanded playoff's first expiration date. Toss in compliance and there will be no grass growing under their feet as they make strides to get this done.

Maybe they've been working on this awhile separately and this cooperation is to formalize the approach, rules and governance and if so, maybe it could happen by the end of March, but I doubt it.

I expect FSU's suit to muddle on and if so, this coming change could overtake it and render it moot. The only wild card I see is if ESPN decides not to pick up their option on extending the ACC contract and movement happens more quickly because of it. I don't see a reason for them to do this, but I suppose it is possible.

Instead, I think we will all be bored and gripey as we wait and anticipate what may come.

The snag is a practical one to deal with, details. It is also a legal one to comply with, except it would be helpful if what compliance meant was spelled out in a little more detail.

If something happens relatively soon it would make for some interesting times here. If not, I hope you really love basketball!

Your views and speculation are welcomed.

The P2 could be sued and taken to court to exclude anybody since all athletes at every school are treated equals. What do you call when a business trying to sabotage other businesses to put them out of business? That is what the P2 is doing. You have to treat this as a business, and the P2 would be considered a monopoly to exclude other schools out of the picture.

Your absolutely overstepping the legal angle here. Amazon has put countless companies out of business in the last 25 years. I bet the number of non-frivous lawsuits is at a minimum. The G5 and FCS schools are granted an opportunity to play sports, they have no right to be included in any top tier.

The Top Tier is Div 1 FBS.

(02-15-2024 10:36 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(02-15-2024 12:46 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 03:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 02:56 PM)bullet Wrote:  There was one article that said that some preliminary negotiations on the House case were going on.

I think the big NCAA restructure probably works in conjunction with the settlement of that case.

I've tried and I just can't make the math work for the schools to pay all athletes, for football and likely basketball to be autonomous and wholly compliant with the rulings, and for the NCAA to stay funded. If it were a marriage the claim would be irreconcilable differences.

The moment that the courts give the schools "cover" that all students must be paid (And I'm not sure where specifically that "line" gets crossed), is the moment that costs to pay the students will be baked directly into the media deals.

The negotiations become obvious.

Which means that it could be very likely that all of these court cases could upend all (or most) current media deals. I would be surprised if there isn't some clause that sends them back to negotiations if xyz events (in this case court cases affecting money structures), occur.

If the House court decides that football and basketball players are entitled to NIL money for appearing in games, there will be an injunction against further broadcast of games.

You can show their faces, just like you can show the faces of the people in the crowd. The way your work around it is by only mentioning their numbers and not their names. Then there's no issue broadcasting a game.

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as seeing if any more FCS schools move up.

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

I agree about the Power schools separating from the rest, but the G5 has their own agenda as well.

(02-16-2024 01:44 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

I agree about the Power schools separating from the rest, but the G5 has their own agenda as well.

Yes, I would say they have a strong need to be proactive on their own behalf.

(02-16-2024 01:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:44 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

I agree about the Power schools separating from the rest, but the G5 has their own agenda as well.

Yes, I would say they have a strong need to be proactive on their own behalf.

I'd like to see the stronger G5 schools, that don't make the cut for a spot in a Power conference, pair up with the stronger FCS schools.

(02-13-2024 12:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It hasn't. Most of the moves being made are heavily reliant upon concrete details. Thanks to the court rulings nobody is really sure which details are still concrete.

Sankey and Petitti are trying to figure those things out. They'll want to know about how much will the cost be for competing at the upper level. And calculating that will involve each sport, its roster size, the way it scheduled, the distances and frequency of having to fly to compete in that sport, officiating costs, the number of allowable coaches, etc. They'll need to know what the legally acceptable pay ranges will be for athletes in general. Will they use contracts to control part of the chaos of the transfer portal which, while not restricted, will require buyouts. And they'll have to decide if football, football and basketball, or all sports move to the upper tier.

If a wholly separate upper tier which is predicated upon compliance with the intent of the courts is to be established, then they'll need to know if that is a sufficiently different entity in its relationship with players so as not to be considered a direct competition with lower divisions. If so, will opt ins be permitted.

And if all of that does transpire what is the size that allows for schools to freely choose to be a part of it. In other words, how many can they reasonable foresee being able to afford to compete at that level.

FOX and ESPN will have to examine all of that to see if it fits with what they are able to pay and whether there will be pay tiers within an upper tier or will all schools choosing to be part of it simply be assimilated into the two top conferences. Will those opting in be used to form a new conference or two, or will the Big 12 and/or the ACC become a template for that lower pay tier in the upper tier?

Such issues could render the FSU legal battle moot and simply free the Noles and others to opt in and be placed or reformed into a new conference.

Some rumors floating around, and they are just rumors, are suggesting big movement prior to the expiration of the first quarter of this year, so by the end of March. I don't know if that will even be possible. What Sankey and Petitti and the group they assemble has to accomplish for that to happen is extensive.

The one thing I do believe to be true is that nothing will happen until Presidents of schools and commissioners of conferences have some solid figures with which to work. Nobody is making a commitment for 10's of millions or more without them. Therefore, I think everything is on hold until these matters are at least a much better-known quantity.

The good thing about all of this is that most of it needs to be worked out by the end of Summer 2025 if it is to be completed before the contract renewal on the expanded playoff's first expiration date. Toss in compliance and there will be no grass growing under their feet as they make strides to get this done.

Maybe they've been working on this awhile separately and this cooperation is to formalize the approach, rules and governance and if so, maybe it could happen by the end of March, but I doubt it.

I expect FSU's suit to muddle on and if so, this coming change could overtake it and render it moot. The only wild card I see is if ESPN decides not to pick up their option on extending the ACC contract and movement happens more quickly because of it. I don't see a reason for them to do this, but I suppose it is possible.

Instead, I think we will all be bored and gripey as we wait and anticipate what may come.

The snag is a practical one to deal with, details. It is also a legal one to comply with, except it would be helpful if what compliance meant was spelled out in a little more detail.

If something happens relatively soon it would make for some interesting times here. If not, I hope you really love basketball!

Your views and speculation are welcomed.

It's only been 5 or so months since the last realignment move. Don't know how "realignment [has] seemingly ground to a halt." Are you expecting teams to make moves like TCU going to the Big East and then before playing a single game moving to the Big 12? That's about the only way realignment could move any faster.

Now if we were to go 5-10 years without a move, that would signal it grinding to a halt.

(02-16-2024 02:10 PM)C2__ Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 12:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It hasn't. Most of the moves being made are heavily reliant upon concrete details. Thanks to the court rulings nobody is really sure which details are still concrete.

Sankey and Petitti are trying to figure those things out. They'll want to know about how much will the cost be for competing at the upper level. And calculating that will involve each sport, its roster size, the way it scheduled, the distances and frequency of having to fly to compete in that sport, officiating costs, the number of allowable coaches, etc. They'll need to know what the legally acceptable pay ranges will be for athletes in general. Will they use contracts to control part of the chaos of the transfer portal which, while not restricted, will require buyouts. And they'll have to decide if football, football and basketball, or all sports move to the upper tier.

If a wholly separate upper tier which is predicated upon compliance with the intent of the courts is to be established, then they'll need to know if that is a sufficiently different entity in its relationship with players so as not to be considered a direct competition with lower divisions. If so, will opt ins be permitted.

And if all of that does transpire what is the size that allows for schools to freely choose to be a part of it. In other words, how many can they reasonable foresee being able to afford to compete at that level.

FOX and ESPN will have to examine all of that to see if it fits with what they are able to pay and whether there will be pay tiers within an upper tier or will all schools choosing to be part of it simply be assimilated into the two top conferences. Will those opting in be used to form a new conference or two, or will the Big 12 and/or the ACC become a template for that lower pay tier in the upper tier?

Such issues could render the FSU legal battle moot and simply free the Noles and others to opt in and be placed or reformed into a new conference.

Some rumors floating around, and they are just rumors, are suggesting big movement prior to the expiration of the first quarter of this year, so by the end of March. I don't know if that will even be possible. What Sankey and Petitti and the group they assemble has to accomplish for that to happen is extensive.

The one thing I do believe to be true is that nothing will happen until Presidents of schools and commissioners of conferences have some solid figures with which to work. Nobody is making a commitment for 10's of millions or more without them. Therefore, I think everything is on hold until these matters are at least a much better-known quantity.

The good thing about all of this is that most of it needs to be worked out by the end of Summer 2025 if it is to be completed before the contract renewal on the expanded playoff's first expiration date. Toss in compliance and there will be no grass growing under their feet as they make strides to get this done.

Maybe they've been working on this awhile separately and this cooperation is to formalize the approach, rules and governance and if so, maybe it could happen by the end of March, but I doubt it.

I expect FSU's suit to muddle on and if so, this coming change could overtake it and render it moot. The only wild card I see is if ESPN decides not to pick up their option on extending the ACC contract and movement happens more quickly because of it. I don't see a reason for them to do this, but I suppose it is possible.

Instead, I think we will all be bored and gripey as we wait and anticipate what may come.

The snag is a practical one to deal with, details. It is also a legal one to comply with, except it would be helpful if what compliance meant was spelled out in a little more detail.

If something happens relatively soon it would make for some interesting times here. If not, I hope you really love basketball!

Your views and speculation are welcomed.

It's only been 5 or so months since the last realignment move. Don't know how "realignment [has] seemingly ground to a halt." Are you expecting teams to make moves like TCU going to the Big East and then before playing a single game moving to the Big 12? That's about the only way realignment could move any faster.

Now if we were to go 5-10 years without a move, that would signal it grinding to a halt.

Headwinds:
FSU's lawsuit and the time it takes to play out.
The CFP coming in 700 million less than expected.
A case coming through on actual pay for athletes, as in salary.

But make no mistake 2026 will be a deadline for those in the upper tier for a variety of reasons.

There won't be any 5 to 10 years wait on being in the top tier. Why? The money likely heads down significantly around 2035 and thereafter. Global finances and the aging and death of the Baby Boome will play a large factor in it as well. The big money still to be made will only be earned between now and 2032 or so. Nobody who can make the jump, and wants to, is waiting.

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

Speculation or hopefulness on your part.

I'll bet the 'Noles are hopeful that the SEC will come to their rescue and plunk down a large chunk of change on their behalf to help defray the huge amount it's going to cost FSU to exit the ACC.

(02-16-2024 04:36 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

Speculation or hopefulness on your part.

I'll bet the 'Noles are hopeful that the SEC will come to their rescue and plunk down a large chunk of change on their behalf to help defray the huge amount it's going to cost FSU to exit the ACC.

Reality as to the event horizon. Nothing is deterring those demographic paradigm shifts. In fact, much of the unrest now are early attempts to position corporations to ride them out. The equities market in Japan hit recessionary levels yesterday. The ripples are beginning on the global economic downturn.

Desperation for athletic teams to favorably position themselves and top line universities to seek safer associations is also reality.

Now as to the headwinds slowing things down now, those too are real.

The speculation is over how many make the upper tier prior to 2026 and the headwinds I mentioned will impact those numbers.

(02-16-2024 04:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 04:36 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-13-2024 07:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The answer is simple. FOX and ESPN spent everything they wanted too, and then more than they had budgeted with the late moves. There is no cash left to give away.

The expanded CFP came in at $1.3B, a modest increase of only 25% despite expansion and an old contract. Below expected market price. Only ESPN seriously bid, and probably not for much of any more than they would have for the NY6 and NCG in the old format. That says no money left.

Oregon and Washington had to take less than 50% B1G money, as that is all FOX was willing to give.

The SEC is staying at 8 games because ESPN is not willing to pay for what is arguably the best possible additional content in CFB. ESPN also had their voice (Thamel) throw cold water on FSU or Clemson coming to the SEC anytime soon.

The sports streaming partnership between Disney's ESPN, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Fox shows how these companies are preparing for a big shift to streaming, all other sports expenses are being contained.

Bottom line, the money is not there for B1G or SEC expansion. So, we wait until these bigger things sort themselves out.

This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

Speculation or hopefulness on your part.

I'll bet the 'Noles are hopeful that the SEC will come to their rescue and plunk down a large chunk of change on their behalf to help defray the huge amount it's going to cost FSU to exit the ACC.

Reality as to the event horizon. Nothing is deterring those demographic paradigm shifts. In fact, much of the unrest now are early attempts to position corporations to ride them out. The equities market in Japan hit recessionary levels yesterday. The ripples are beginning on the global economic downturn.

Desperation for athletic teams to favorably position themselves and top line universities to seek safer associations is also reality.

Now as to the headwinds slowing things down now, those too are real.

The speculation is over how many make the upper tier prior to 2026 and the headwinds I mentioned will impact those numbers.

36 max. to start.
The number would be more likely to go down over time as opposed to increasing.

(02-16-2024 02:08 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:46 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:44 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-16-2024 01:27 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  This phase is mainly going to focus on the G5, particularly the C-USA, as well as if any more FCS schools move up.

1. The Texas AD let the cat out of the bag that the SEC would move to 9 games in 2026. The SEC didn't move to 9 now because the schedules will have to be redone when more join, likely for the 2026 season.

2. This phase is about consolidating the P positions and leaving the G5 and FCS to make their minds up on what level of the sport they can afford to invest in. In other words Andy, it's about separation.

I agree about the Power schools separating from the rest, but the G5 has their own agenda as well.

Yes, I would say they have a strong need to be proactive on their own behalf.

I'd like to see the stronger G5 schools, that don't make the cut for a spot in a Power conference, pair up with the stronger FCS schools.

Probably won't happen as there is separation going on in the G5 as well. LaTech has been begging both the AAC (American) and the SunBelt to let them in. Pre- USM, Marshall, ODU, & JMU, the SBC was receptive to Missouri State. Now the SBC's focus has shifted to poaching the AAC. The AAC just wants to stay alive and feels like it can with Navy & Army. Basically, the only conferences looking at poaching stronger FCS teams are C-USA & the MAC.