Been reading the tea leaves and insights from some that Missouri State is ready to go FBS, but the current president wants the new presidents say. From this article, https://news.missouristate.edu/2024/01/1...president/, this could happen faster than UMass is ever known to act. Perhaps Missouri State is ready by end of February or March.

What if CUSA went to 14 teams with a GOR 5 year extension ESPN contract of 12M for 14 teams and an expanded late September/October mid-week game? The extra inventory and longer mid-week span could pay for the ESPN bump up. 14 teams would added getting increased bowl tie-ins and ease some of the traveling concerns with a team in the west, Tarleton State, a team in the middle Missouri State, and a team in the east UMass. This would also extend the GOR and CUSA not only would be stable but able to weather any future realignment storms.

I don't think anyone reading these boards will need to guess at my response to basically every part of that. It's a perfect trifecta - the GOR, mid-week football games, and expansion.




Which also makes it quite likely to happen, based on how these things have tended to go lately.


I will point out one (consistently) over-looked aspect here - to adding these particular teams (or almost any that have been discussed as a single addition or for three at once). You (still) haven't given yourself a good divisional line. You either have to split 100 Miles of Hate, or send someone West that is in the east (just when it would matter more, because you'd be playing fewer cross-divisional games with 14 than 12). This doesn't have to matter, you don't have to have divisions anymore - but traditionally the way that 12 or 14 teams helped you financially is by giving you more regional games (which in theory are of more interest and hopefully cost less for travel). But you can't get there from here. We were left with the teams that were left. When you start out with El Paso and Miami, and have to fill in with anyone you can get - you can't really be strategic about such things.

Which greatly reduces the need for 12 (or 14). There is less advantage to be gained.

Fourteen is a pretty unpopular number among us on this board. I'll defer to the legacy members who were here for the infighting 14 members previously brought this league. Twelve is where I draw the line. Besides the potential for infighting, I don't have faith our media partners will be generous enough to pay us more for 14 teams. I'm optimistic we won't suffer much by going to 10, 11 & 12.

Steve, I like your suggestion. I was originally hoping it would be EKU rather than Tarty. I still hope it works out that way, but think Tarty is ahead of them now.

Inutech, it won’t matter because there will not be divisions. Schedules can still be maintained for all sports that maximize regional play while encompassing the conference as a whole.

I don’t know how to do it, but somebody oughta post one of those logo maps with all the teams on it so we can see them from east to west.

UMass
Delaware
Liberty
FIU
Kenny
Jax St.
MTSU
WKU
La Tech
Missouri St.
Sammy
Tarty
UTEP
New Mexico St.

I, for one, live the fact that Liberty is in a more “national” conference. It provides great exposure and variety. More regionality can still be achieved with OOC scheduling if desired.

(01-22-2024 12:51 PM)smith79jordan Wrote:  Fourteen is a pretty unpopular number among us on this board. I'll defer to the legacy members who were here for the infighting 14 members previously brought this league. Twelve is where I draw the line. Besides the potential for infighting, I don't have faith our media partners will be generous enough to pay us more for 14 teams. I'm optimistic we won't suffer much by going to 10, 11 & 12.

Was not around and curious of the infighting. Where to hold the conference tourney and travel partners come to mind but sure I'd miss the important one as think going with ESPN and having mid-week games has been accepted.

(01-22-2024 12:51 PM)smith79jordan Wrote:  Fourteen is a pretty unpopular number among us on this board. I'll defer to the legacy members who were here for the infighting 14 members previously brought this league. Twelve is where I draw the line. Besides the potential for infighting, I don't have faith our media partners will be generous enough to pay us more for 14 teams. I'm optimistic we won't suffer much by going to 10, 11 & 12.

I'm less worried about disagreements (although the more teams you have, obviously the more conflicting agendas you're going to have as well). I think a lot of that has to do with the make-up of the conference (I don't just mean everybody holding hands and singing kumbaya, if you're spread out you're going to fairly disagree about where to hold events, etc where you might not with tighter geography).

I think the second objection is probably spot on (and I worry about it already for 10, 11, potentially 12, etc). It can't just be pro rata to be a net positive. You have to get enough more per school to make up for where you're losing money. I can't see why that would be the case for what we'd have to sell ( but I could be wrong).

(01-22-2024 12:55 PM)army56mike Wrote:  Inutech, it won’t matter because there will not be divisions. Schedules can still be maintained for all sports that maximize regional play while encompassing the conference as a whole.


That's my point. You wouldn't get divisions out of it, so why do it? A significant advantage to 12 or 14 is, or used to be, the divisional format. But if you don't get that, what's the point of 12 or 14? There isn't one.

More regionality can still be achieved with OOC scheduling if desired.

National scheduling could also be achieved with OOC scheduling, if desired.

I didn't hate the old 14 team CUSA (even if I'd have preferred 12 teams). I don't think every realignment nerd's fun fantasy of perfectly geographical conferences is necessarily the best thing. I didn't think it was awful that the ole CUSA/SB/AAC over-lapped. And we can't really get good geography with what we started with anyway.

But making things worse doesn't make them better. We don't have to lean into "things are tough, but let's make them tougher on ourselves" as a conference strategy. We can make good choices instead of bad choices (including just choosing not to make bad choices as a good choice in itself).

(01-22-2024 11:57 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:  Been reading the tea leaves and insights from some that Missouri State is ready to go FBS, but the current president wants the new presidents say. From this article, https://news.missouristate.edu/2024/01/1...president/, this could happen faster than UMass is ever known to act. Perhaps Missouri State is ready by end of February or March.

What if CUSA went to 14 teams with a GOR 5 year extension ESPN contract of 12M for 14 teams and an expanded late September/October mid-week game? The extra inventory and longer mid-week span could pay for the ESPN bump up. 14 teams would added getting increased bowl tie-ins and ease some of the traveling concerns with a team in the west, Tarleton State, a team in the middle Missouri State, and a team in the east UMass. This would also extend the GOR and CUSA not only would be stable but able to weather any future realignment storms.

I think you have read the tea leaves well as it relates to Missouri State. I want them to take both Missouri State and UMass for sure if that’s at all possible. Definitely think that would add some strength to the conference.

(01-22-2024 02:41 PM)kip dynamite Wrote:  I want them to take both Missouri State and UMass for sure if that’s at all possible. Definitely think that would add some strength to the conference.

How so?

(01-22-2024 03:03 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(01-22-2024 02:41 PM)kip dynamite Wrote:  I want them to take both Missouri State and UMass for sure if that’s at all possible. Definitely think that would add some strength to the conference.

How so?

Yes, yes they would. Thanks for posting kip dynamite. I hope you can lead more of the Bear faithful that would welcome a CUSA invite over here. I have visited your message boards and seen there is a desire to move up to FBS. I also know many Bears fans would prefer the SBC. That’s reasonable. I have seen many are open to CUSA now as well, as it looks the quickest route. Just need to name a president that supports it and get it done quickly. I am pretty stoked about the hance to add Missouri St. to CUSA.

(01-22-2024 04:06 PM)army56mike Wrote:  

(01-22-2024 03:03 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(01-22-2024 02:41 PM)kip dynamite Wrote:  I want them to take both Missouri State and UMass for sure if that’s at all possible. Definitely think that would add some strength to the conference.

How so?

Yes, yes they would.

How so?

TWELVE is the publicly stated "goal" by conference leaders.

IMO--we add ONE-- sometime in the next three months or less.

The NINE current conference member University Presidents will vote/decide.

Others consulted:

--ESPN

-- Kennesaw St., Delaware

-- Conference administration

It may come down to a detailed "net" cost/ benefit analysis. Especially if those figures show a large gap between candidates.

If there is Not a large gap--then other factors come into play. WE are Not PRIVY to the details these voters will use.

(01-22-2024 05:51 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  TWELVE is the publicly stated "goal" by conference leaders.

I think you make too much of this. Doesn't mean it's not the most likely outcome, but lots of people say lots of things about realignment/dilution. A throwaway "sure, we'd ideally have 12 but we want to make sure they're the right ones" kind of thing in itself is just about meaningless.

IMO--we add ONE-- sometime in the next three months or less.

Heaven forfend!

The NINE current conference member University Presidents will vote/decide.

Others consulted:

--ESPN CBSSN

-- Kennesaw St., Delaware

-- Conference administration

It may come down to a detailed "net" cost/ benefit analysis. Especially if those figures show a large gap between candidates.

If there is Not a large gap--then other factors come into play. WE are Not PRIVY to the details these voters will use.

And probably never will be. Which is unfortunate, but it'll all change again soon anyway. The big question now is whether there will be another big change or just more small ones (next). That's the gamble of the GOR. We all probably have different hopes, but nobody really knows where it goes in the next year or two.

On the Bears’ potential pickiness pertaining to their FBS landing pad, Missouri State may still prefer the Sun Belt. I’m sure plenty of administrators and fans would, or did when those reports were prominent in 2021, but that’s not reasonable for them now. I wouldn’t put any thought into their previous SBC links. Does MSU want to be FBS or not? It’s that simple. They had their chance with their “dream conference” a decade ago when the Sun Belt was taking everybody and it didn’t work out for whatever reason. If their new president is about emphasizing athletics, and furthering football success, then they need to take what they (likely) have in hand. Besides, how much less desirable is CUSA really than the Sun Belt for a school like MSU? I get the allure of the Belt but we’re better on the hardwood, and they’re a hoops-focused school. And besides Ark. State (very close to Springfield), WKU, MT and LaTech are closer than any SBC West opponent. I think MSU fans would find CUSA is a suitable home for their school, who knows if they’ll ever get that chance though.

Do think Missouri State would be an perfect fit for CUSA!

Back to the original post.

IMO the likelihood of CUSA going to Fourteen this year is very, very low.

It will be (no particular order) UMASS OR MISSOURI State as CUSA grows to Twelve.

Staying at 11 is probably even less likely than going to 14, but is the most desirable outcome.

We will probably not get the most desirable outcome.

11 >>>>>>>>>12 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>14>>>>>>>>>>>>>13

I just can’t imagine a 14 team CUSA with whoever gets left out between MSU/UMass plus Tarleton is any more valuable to media partners than a 12 team conference without them. We already offer plenty of October midweek inventory as is. We have an adequate deal in place for current members. Re-negotiating it for fourteen schools would be “adding just to add”.

The conference isn’t in danger, nobody is leaving soon.

Geography will always be an “issue” to some degree in CUSA but “filling out the map” can’t be a reason to add at this point. It’s not that bad. Not with 11 members, probably 12 in the coming months. Others have pointed out divisional issues. I think we’re about as regional as we can be (and I think geography concerns generally are overstated).

Personally, hope people in charge stay true to their word. Doesn’t seem like there would be enough value out there to go to 14. But Judy said to Trust No One.

(01-22-2024 06:20 PM)EatEmUp11 Wrote:  On the Bears’ potential pickiness pertaining to their FBS landing pad, Missouri State may still prefer the Sun Belt. I’m sure plenty of administrators and fans would, or did when those reports were prominent in 2021, but that’s not reasonable for them now. I wouldn’t put any thought into their previous SBC links. Does MSU want to be FBS or not? It’s that simple. They had their chance with their “dream conference” a decade ago when the Sun Belt was taking everybody and it didn’t work out for whatever reason. If their new president is about emphasizing athletics, and furthering football success, then they need to take what they (likely) have in hand. Besides, how much less desirable is CUSA really than the Sun Belt for a school like MSU? I get the allure of the Belt but we’re better on the hardwood, and they’re a hoops-focused school. And besides Ark. State (very close to Springfield), WKU, MT and LaTech are closer than any SBC West opponent. I think MSU fans would find CUSA is a suitable home for their school, who knows if they’ll ever get that chance though.

If SBC is your dream conference it says all that needs to be said. Lets move on to a better candidate. I have a list.

Like several others, I think the chances of us going past 12 are pretty much nil, at least given the current state of broadcasting revenue, CFP payouts, and NCAA tourney payouts.

A change to any of these could change everything for us. But I'd add the important caveat that any change which makes it financially beneficial for CUSA to expand will likely make it financially beneficial for other conferences to expand as well. Essentially, it would kick off Realignment Apocalypse 3.0, and who knows where anyone will land when that happens?

Right now, it looks like the AAC/MWC are the Top 2 G5s (based in prestige and revenue) with CUSA and SBC coming in next. The order of those two depends entirely on your priorities. SBC has a perceived advantage in football, but head-to-head results don't really bear that out. It's safest to call us even, and if anyone is ahead in the game, it's by less than a field goal. In hoops, despite several teams uncharacteristically struggling this season, CUSA still maintains a fat lead. In baseball, the reverse is true.

For most of the schools who might "prefer" the Belt, it's for reasons other than competitiveness. Liberty, for example, would have an opportunity to be in a conference with multiple Virginia schools, plus nearby Marshall and App State. WKU, MTSU, Jax State, and Kennesaw State can also point to regional rivals in the Belt.

Truth is, until CUSA invited KSU, the Belt was probably the preferred landing spot for most Jax State fans, and especially those in eastern Alabama and western Georgia, thanks to the presence of troy state, Ga Southern, and Ga State. App has a large alumni presence in Atlanta, so our Atlanta-area alums are very familiar with them as well. Similarly, our fans in the western and southwestern parts of the state might look to USA and Southern Miss as desirable conference mates because of the easy travel, even though we have no history with either.

None of this has anything to do with bowl wins, revenue, or even Top 25 appearances. It has everything to do with wanting to be in a conference with teams you know, which, like it or not, is the ultimate goal of Joe Popcorn.

With that in mind, there aren't a lot of candidates left who'll move the needle for Ol' Joe. And whether he's happy in CUSA or looks longingly to the AAC, SBC, MWC, or even the MAC, depends entirely on the schools he's most familiar with.

But when that apocalypse begins, and dominoes start falling, throw out everything you think you know.

Would the Belt be as attractive to Mo State and current CUSA schools, if the conference's best teams were poached by the AAC and MWC/PAC?

Would CUSA be damaged or strengthened if a wild string of events out west saw UTEP and NMSU leave for the MWC (or PAC)?

Where would the MAC fit into any of this? Would they seek to expand if it became financially attractive for them to do so, and would it even matter? Would any FBS schools even consider leaving their current conference for the MAC?

Just how much raiding and poaching will actually occur, even if Apocalypse 3.0 does take place? Even with conferences "going big" will there be any room for more than a couple of new schools? How big, ultimately, is "big"?

If you start in a vacuum with the status quo, playing realignment and conference-comparison games is easy. But once you start at the top with falling dominoes from a new round of conference realignment, things get muddy fast down here in CUSA.

To most people, it seems ludicrous that a JMU or App State might someday choose to leave the Sun Belt for CUSA, but if the right dominoes were to fall, it could happen. Likewise, there's currently no good reason for Jax State to consider the Sun Belt (we have plenty of rivals in CUSA now) but that could change rapidly if KSU and MTSU were to leave.

And yes, I know Joe Popcorn's goals and the goals of university presidents, league officials, and network executives are not remotely the same. This may actually temper some of the insanity of Apocalypse 3.0. Presidents want their high academic standards. League officials want competitiveness and revenue potential. Network executives want money, eyeballs, and money. Not necessarily in that order.

A move that Joe looks at as common sense -- "Boise to the PAC!" -- will be rejected out of hand by the presidents and network suits. And when it comes to the reverse, most of those moves have already taken place. How many Joe Popcorns saw USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon to the Big Ten as a realistic option? There just aren't a whole lot of moves left, short of a complete breakaway from the NCAA by the topmost Power programs.

And beyond the fun aspects of speculating where things will end up, it makes the question raised in this thread very difficult to answer.

Could we go big? Sure. Will we? Probably not. So you don't think it will happen? I didn't say that...