The Highest Revenue Additions For the Big 10 and SEC to get to 20 & 24:

Candidates from the top 50: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Stanford, Clemson, Miami, T.C.U., Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, Baylor, California, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Colorado, Arizona

AAU Schools Remaining in the top 50 of Revenue:
Notre Dame, Stanford, Miami, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia, California, Arizona State, Pittsburg, Colorado, Arizona.

Top 7 SEC: Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, Miami, Kansas, North Carolina

Top 7 Big 10: Notre Dame, Florida State, Stanford, Miami, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina

The Highest Valued Additions for the Big 10 and SEC to get to 20 & 24:
Notre Dame, Kansas, Louisville, Florida State, Arizona State, Clemson, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Arizona, North Carolina, Texas Tech, Syracuse, Duke, Colorado, California, Iowa State, Utah, TCU, N.C. State, Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia

Top 7 SEC: Notre Dame, Kansas, Louisville, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina

Top 7 Big 10: Notre Dame, Kansas, Florida State, Arizona State, Clemson, Arizona, North Carolina


Top 7 New Markets SEC: Notre Dame, Kansas, Miami, Virginia Tech/Virginia, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Colorado

Top 7 New Markets Big 10: Florida State/Miami, Stanford, Arizona/Arizona State, Clemson, Duke/North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado

Now Who to 20 for the SEC:
Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Kansas

The SEC closes out their hold on the dominant position in each Southern State picking up the two of the 3 revenue leaders and 2 of the top 3 value leaders, picking up 2 new states and 2 AAU schools.

Now Who to 20 for the Big 10:
Notre Dame, Miami

Notre Dame wants games in Florida and Notre Dame is the must get for the Big 10.

To 24 SEC: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Virgina Tech

Here the SEC picks up the 2nd best brand in North Carolina and an academic AAU blueblood which shuts the Big 10 out in North Carolina. By taking Virginia it essentially keeps the Big 10 out of Virginia too.

Louisville is a top 15 earner, holds solid value, and though a duplicate market really brings more to the table in all ways except academic rating than any of the remaining schools.

Virginia Tech as the best remaining football brand in Value and attendance.

To 24 B1G: Stanford, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado

The Big 10 already had USC and by taking Stanford and Georgia Tech they address Notre Dame's remaining concerns and close the deal. Colorado is the bridge they need. And the state adds 6 million viewers. Arizona State has the best value of any remaining out west.

SEC:

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Louisiana State, Louisville, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee

Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big 10:

Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue

Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Washington

I believe there will not be a dispute between the SEC and BIG over future potential extractions from the ACC. These discussions will be behind closed doors and will involve the networks. They may do it in a way that the ACC survives, or have an understanding a few schools will end-up hooking with the B12. To break the ACC’s GoR, near all, if not all, ACC schools are left with something viable. Avoid the ugliness in how the PAC got dismantled.

SEC - FSU, Clemson, UNC are the prime candidates. Virginia is likely a favorable consideration. A UNC tag along can’t be dismissed.

BIG - Notre Dame, Miami; perhaps Duke, GT, and UVA if not tabbed for the SEC.

Big12 - Louisville and Pitt, maybe Syracuse would be sought.

NCSU, VT, maybe a couple others, would require the expansions to 24 in the P2.

I think 20 will be the max for a long time if the P2 goes there.

(01-14-2024 03:04 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  I believe there will not be a dispute between the SEC and BIG over future potential extractions from the ACC. These discussions will be behind closed doors and will involve the networks. They may do it in way the ACC survives, are have an understanding a few schools will end-up hooking with the B12. To break the ACC’s GoR, near all, if not all, ACC schools are left with something viable. Avoid the ugliness in how the PAC got dismantled.

SEC - FSU, Clemson, UNC are the prime candidates. Virginia is likely a favorable consideration. A UNC tag along can’t be dismissed.

BIG - Notre Dame, Miami; perhaps Duke, GT, and UVA if not tabbed for the SEC.

Big12 - Louisville and Pitt, maybe Syracuse would be sought.

NCSU, VT, maybe a couple others, would require the expansions to 24 in the P2.

I think 20 will be the max for a long time if the P2 goes there.

The only way the P2 goes to 24, and with pro rata the Networks have set up the potentiality for it, though not the likelihood, is if the networks need more games for what would then become a P2 only. So, the number of weekly slots in a world of just a P2 will dictate the number of schools needed to fill the network's needs.

The SEC and Big 10 could profitably exist at 18 members each. With the right placement both could be profitable at 20. But only with network subsidy (pro rata) will they remain profitable at 24.

JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

(01-15-2024 03:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

(01-15-2024 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

No doubt that Clemson would hate to leave the ACC due to it's history with the ACC but all signs point to them leaving IF a viable exit can be obtained. If the cost to leave is manageable and an invitation to either the SEC (preferable) or BIG is available, Clemson will leave the ACC and not think twice about it.

I think Clemson is ready to leave even if it's not really their first choice. Much like Texas, they see the writing on the wall when it comes to the economics of the game.

How much are they willing to pay? Not sure, but if Florida State sets a precedent for a low figure then I think that greases the skids a little better.

My view on why Florida State is challenging this first, beyond the obvious, is because it sets the market. If FSU and Clemson try to leave simultaneously then the ACC has a better argument in court, I believe, that significant economic damages are occurring. Valuing FSU and Clemson together would amount to more than valuing each individually.

My other theory is if UNC is not ready to pull the trigger then I think that makes Kansas more valuable to us in the short term. Now, if Florida State and Clemson are both ready to leave and both accepting of the SEC then I still like the idea of Kansas coming along.

Now, who do you add at 20?

-Would that sort of move alter UNC's outlook? Not sure it would.

-Miami should be willing, but not certain that's the best idea for the SEC.

-As odd as it may sound, Louisville might make the most sense in that scenario. A true rival for Kentucky in the traditional sense. Their programs are strong economically. It penetrates a little more around the edges of SEC territory into Big Ten territory(Kansas and Missouri already accomplish that to a certain degree). It adds a decent football program without really altering the competitive balance. Diamond sports are important there too.

Florida State, Clemson, Kansas and Louisville?

I haven't really thought about that alignment in the past as I assumed UNC was ready to move, but if they aren't then it's a thought.

The only other approach I think that could work would be the market add in a school like Pittsburgh, but I'm not sure the cultural fit would work at all.

(01-17-2024 12:02 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I think Clemson is ready to leave even if it's not really their first choice. Much like Texas, they see the writing on the wall when it comes to the economics of the game.

How much are they willing to pay? Not sure, but if Florida State sets a precedent for a low figure then I think that greases the skids a little better.

My view on why Florida State is challenging this first, beyond the obvious, is because it sets the market. If FSU and Clemson try to leave simultaneously then the ACC has a better argument in court, I believe, that significant economic damages are occurring. Valuing FSU and Clemson together would amount to more than valuing each individually.

My other theory is if UNC is not ready to pull the trigger then I think that makes Kansas more valuable to us in the short term. Now, if Florida State and Clemson are both ready to leave and both accepting of the SEC then I still like the idea of Kansas coming along.

Now, who do you add at 20?

-Would that sort of move alter UNC's outlook? Not sure it would.

-Miami should be willing, but not certain that's the best idea for the SEC.

-As odd as it may sound, Louisville might make the most sense in that scenario. A true rival for Kentucky in the traditional sense. Their programs are strong economically. It penetrates a little more around the edges of SEC territory into Big Ten territory(Kansas and Missouri already accomplish that to a certain degree). It adds a decent football program without really altering the competitive balance. Diamond sports are important there too.

Florida State, Clemson, Kansas and Louisville?

I haven't really thought about that alignment in the past as I assumed UNC was ready to move, but if they aren't then it's a thought.

The only other approach I think that could work would be the market add in a school like Pittsburgh, but I'm not sure the cultural fit would work at all.

If UNC wants to come great. If not why not try Virginia Tech? If they say no, why not Colorado?

If we move to 24 we will likely wind up with 4 six team divisions.

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State Mississippi, Mississippi State
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Spring conference meetings will be occurring in several(+) weeks. They will chat about expansion behind closed doors, but publicly declare in the press releases that topic was not on the agenda, or that it was discussed as an update, but no action was taken. Instead, they’ll say expansion matters focused on welcoming and assimilating Texas and Oklahoma fully into the fold. If asked about Floriida State, it will be said “it is an ACC matter and we have no comment”.


The truth is the SEC will be conversing extensively about future expansion in all kinds of informal and varying gatherings throughout the duration of the conference. Where every member stands on expansion, and understanding who are the favored schools to add in the next round of expansion, will be rather uniformly and unofficially conveyed through circulated impressions.

(01-17-2024 07:04 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  Spring conference meetings will be occurring in several(+) weeks. They will chat about expansion behind closed doors, but publicly declare in the press releases that topic was not on the agenda, or that it was discussed as an update, but no action was taken. Instead, they’ll say expansion matters focused on welcoming and assimilating Texas and Oklahoma fully into the fold. If asked about Floriida State, it will be said “it is an ACC matter and we have no comment”.


The truth is the SEC will be conversing extensively about future expansion in all kinds of informal and varying gatherings throughout the duration of the conference. Where every member stands on expansion, and understanding who the favored schools are to add in the next round of expansion, will be rather uniformly and unofficially conveyed through circulated impressions.

Actually, what you say is true except for the last paragraph. Substitute "have already been" for "will be" and they won't be checking "where every member stands on expansion", because they already have checked. When Sankey says nimble, he means the pecking order for new members, and the alternatives, have already been set. All he has to do is act when it is appropriate.

(01-15-2024 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

Getting us (Kansas) out of the Big 12 GOR before play starts would be interesting as it would mean that FSU shakes loose of the ACC before July 1 of this year. I'm also working under the assumption that if FSU wins in court that it would essentially nullify the ACC GOR causing a "run" on the ACC. I'm not sure how many ACC properties we would be considered ahead of but I'm assuming that it's not very many considering our weaker football viewership and low state population.

I would be thrilled to get into the SEC though and renewing our rivalry with Missouri would be huge.

(01-17-2024 08:01 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

Getting us (Kansas) out of the Big 12 GOR before play starts would be interesting as it would mean that FSU shakes loose of the ACC before July 1 of this year. I'm also working under the assumption that if FSU wins in court that it would essentially nullify the ACC GOR causing a "run" on the ACC. I'm not sure how many ACC properties we would be considered ahead of but I'm assuming that it's not very many considering our weaker football viewership and low state population.

I would be thrilled to get into the SEC though and renewing our rivalry with Missouri would be huge.

The reason I am assuming that FSU will be out by July 1 is that I think rather than risk a jailbreak if FSU should win the court case, or get a vastly lower exit cost, is that ESPN will pressure the ACC to settle, then an amount to leave will be set. Initially I think just FSU goes, but if it is FSU and Clemson and a third wants to leave, like Miami, the Kansas could get a pairing with Miami to either the SEC or Big 10. But getting a settlement is the key. IMO, it's the only way to get movement by this Summer.

And frankly speaking once FSU is gone, and I'm leaning much more toward them leaving alone, and should Kansas join them, that seems to me to open up a negotiation or decision among the remaining ACC brands over whether to leave as well. And if that happens, I think it all gets settled by Summer of 2025.

If the SEC and Big 10 both stand at 18, then figuring out the rest of the moves is more equitable. And other than possibly the 4 corners, the Big 12 will be done and out of the fray. The negotiations would be over the placement of ACC schools.

Now Who to 20 for the SEC:
Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Kansas

To 24 SEC: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Virgina Tech

Your first four looks very realistic as FSU, Clemson, and UNC appear to be leading the charge out of the ACC. I like the Virginia schools and Duke from the second group, but I would swap out Louisville for West Virginia if they got the votes and resources to compete in the sec.

I want to see how costly it’ll be to actually leave the ACC with their TV rights. If the courts or settlement is expensive, I think we’ll see the ACC hang around mostly intact until the late 2020’s when the option for ESPN would be looked at.

(01-17-2024 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 08:01 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

Getting us (Kansas) out of the Big 12 GOR before play starts would be interesting as it would mean that FSU shakes loose of the ACC before July 1 of this year. I'm also working under the assumption that if FSU wins in court that it would essentially nullify the ACC GOR causing a "run" on the ACC. I'm not sure how many ACC properties we would be considered ahead of but I'm assuming that it's not very many considering our weaker football viewership and low state population.

I would be thrilled to get into the SEC though and renewing our rivalry with Missouri would be huge.

The reason I am assuming that FSU will be out by July 1 is that I think rather than risk a jailbreak if FSU should win the court case, or get a vastly lower exit cost, is that ESPN will pressure the ACC to settle, then an amount to leave will be set. Initially I think just FSU goes, but if it is FSU and Clemson and a third wants to leave, like Miami, the Kansas could get a pairing with Miami to either the SEC or Big 10. But getting a settlement is the key. IMO, it's the only way to get movement by this Summer.

And frankly speaking once FSU is gone, and I'm leaning much more toward them leaving alone, and should Kansas join them, that seems to me to open up a negotiation or decision among the remaining ACC brands over whether to leave as well. And if that happens, I think it all gets settled by Summer of 2025.

If the SEC and Big 10 both stand at 18, then figuring out the rest of the moves is more equitable. And other than possibly the 4 corners, the Big 12 will be done and out of the fray. The negotiations would be over the placement of ACC schools.

There are good things and bad things about Miami. The attendance and the dedicated fan base may always be a little underwhelming. The TV viewership seems to always be solid though despite their average performances. The SEC would help them keep more kids local and play at a higher level. I imagine there's quite a few South FL kids that simply don't want to play at small private schools up and down the East Coast.

I am generally in favor of adding them. If they're ready to leave then it makes sense. Speaking of which, if Clemson is still hesitant then Florida State and Miami make a very solid pair.

I've thought for a long time that ESPN wanted to keep total control of Kansas so it made sense to me they would cook up a way to get them in the SEC. I think culturally, there's a lot of drawing power now with Missouri and Oklahoma already in the fold. I think Kansas would be up for it and as the increase in basketball value approaches then it makes sense for the SEC as well.

The question to me is how you work them in being so many ACC programs seem to be on the fence. The key word there may be "seem," but I have a sneaking suspicion that the NC schools play a role...both of them. UNC and NC State were once voting against expansion. UNC cast a final vote against it, but NC State acquiesced. As for being against the Westward expansion....there's the obvious geographical reason, the obvious economic reason, but for NC State there's no reason to hold it up unless you're getting something in return you think you can cash in on later. NC State has never been the type to vote against expansion even if UNC and Duke often do.

In other words, NC State exchanged favors with someone for something.

(01-18-2024 07:53 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 08:01 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:31 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  JRsec, here's the catcher trying to predict, at this early stage, which ACC schools are somewhat firmly prospective extractions from the ACC?

We know Florida State is adamant about leaving the ACC, sooner than later. They will contest the GoR/exit fees in court as it may be headed that way. Perhaps there will be an out-of-court(s) settlement, or one or both sides contest a decision that may have multiple appeals. I view there will be a negotiated settlement, probably involving ESPN as a factor. The settlement will overall be quite less than what the ACC will initially state as demands, but still be considerably expensive for FSU. FSU must have been given a nod and a wink, if they finalize a way out of the ACC, they'll be accepted by the SEC and/or the BIG.

If no other ACC team(s) are joining FSU in the lawsuits/exit strategy, then a precedence for leaving during the current GoR will have been established. That means, if another ACC school wants to immediately follow FSU out of the conference, the terms set with FSU will be powerful in assessing fees levied regarding a similar timeline.

Suppose another ACC school such as Clemson, UNC, or Miami, look at the settled costs for leaving the ACC, and still find it too expensive to pursue. Another ACC school may not have the booster money, collection mechanisms, and the determination level exhibited by FSU.

The SEC would not want to function at 17 members and the BIG would not want to work with the number 19. I suppose either conference could look elsewhere for the second new addition. The Big12 has their own GoR/exit criteria if a school(s) such as Kansas, Arizona State, or Colorado were sought. Of course, such would be less complicated compared to the ACC's excessive figures and terms.

It would make sense, therefore, that a least a second ACC school, join FSU simultaneously in the petition to withdraw from the ACC. What other ACC school would have the motive and the acceptable resources to join-in with FSU? What other ACC school(s) have been given a nod and a wink. I expect UNC has received such, and perhaps Clemson, and/or another, have also.

I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

Getting us (Kansas) out of the Big 12 GOR before play starts would be interesting as it would mean that FSU shakes loose of the ACC before July 1 of this year. I'm also working under the assumption that if FSU wins in court that it would essentially nullify the ACC GOR causing a "run" on the ACC. I'm not sure how many ACC properties we would be considered ahead of but I'm assuming that it's not very many considering our weaker football viewership and low state population.

I would be thrilled to get into the SEC though and renewing our rivalry with Missouri would be huge.

The reason I am assuming that FSU will be out by July 1 is that I think rather than risk a jailbreak if FSU should win the court case, or get a vastly lower exit cost, is that ESPN will pressure the ACC to settle, then an amount to leave will be set. Initially I think just FSU goes, but if it is FSU and Clemson and a third wants to leave, like Miami, the Kansas could get a pairing with Miami to either the SEC or Big 10. But getting a settlement is the key. IMO, it's the only way to get movement by this Summer.

And frankly speaking once FSU is gone, and I'm leaning much more toward them leaving alone, and should Kansas join them, that seems to me to open up a negotiation or decision among the remaining ACC brands over whether to leave as well. And if that happens, I think it all gets settled by Summer of 2025.

If the SEC and Big 10 both stand at 18, then figuring out the rest of the moves is more equitable. And other than possibly the 4 corners, the Big 12 will be done and out of the fray. The negotiations would be over the placement of ACC schools.

There are good things and bad things about Miami. The attendance and the dedicated fan base may always be a little underwhelming. The TV viewership seems to always be solid though despite their average performances. The SEC would help them keep more kids local and play at a higher level. I imagine there's quite a few South FL kids that simply don't want to play at small private schools up and down the East Coast.

I am generally in favor of adding them. If they're ready to leave then it makes sense. Speaking of which, if Clemson is still hesitant then Florida State and Miami make a very solid pair.

I've thought for a long time that ESPN wanted to keep total control of Kansas so it made sense to me they would cook up a way to get them in the SEC. I think culturally, there's a lot of drawing power now with Missouri and Oklahoma already in the fold. I think Kansas would be up for it and as the increase in basketball value approaches then it makes sense for the SEC as well.

The question to me is how you work them in being so many ACC programs seem to be on the fence. The key word there may be "seem," but I have a sneaking suspicion that the NC schools play a role...both of them. UNC and NC State were once voting against expansion. UNC cast a final vote against it, but NC State acquiesced. As for being against the Westward expansion....there's the obvious geographical reason, the obvious economic reason, but for NC State there's no reason to hold it up unless you're getting something in return you think you can cash in on later. NC State has never been the type to vote against expansion even if UNC and Duke often do.

In other words, NC State exchanged favors with someone for something.

Yes they (N.C. State) did. It remains to be seen why did they and for what? SEC inclusion or UNC and UVa's agreement to stay?

(01-18-2024 10:22 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-18-2024 07:53 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 08:01 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  

(01-15-2024 03:44 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I posted an analysis of this on the ACC forum in one of their threads about an hour ago. I think the issues you raise are real. I have long suspected that Kansas would be the other school if FSU left. It would work well for the SEC without impacting their future choices. Perhaps it even works for the Big 10. If a second ACC school leaves it would be Clemson. I just don't think that as a core member that they will pull the trigger on that move.

The wink has surely been given to North Carolina and Virginia by both the SEC and Big 10. Those two schools will stay in the ACC for now and work with Cal and Stanford and Duke, their instate rivals, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and very likely Miami as all of those schools have a vision of academics and athletics which lineup with each other very well, and line up with what Notre Dame claims to want.

They may if their revenue remains the same, reach out to Colorado and Utah as their interests align as well.

My point is if they cut FSU loose for a settled amount higher than most are willing to pay but half of what FSU sees as the highest cost of leaving, then removing FSU and nobody else is quite possible. Kansas is the only remaining Big 12 jewel un-plucked and if they can announce before they play their first games under the new GOR they can likely get out for the 50 million that Oklahoma and Texas paid. But if Clemson is willing to leave and pay their way they would certainly be the pairing.

Getting us (Kansas) out of the Big 12 GOR before play starts would be interesting as it would mean that FSU shakes loose of the ACC before July 1 of this year. I'm also working under the assumption that if FSU wins in court that it would essentially nullify the ACC GOR causing a "run" on the ACC. I'm not sure how many ACC properties we would be considered ahead of but I'm assuming that it's not very many considering our weaker football viewership and low state population.

I would be thrilled to get into the SEC though and renewing our rivalry with Missouri would be huge.

The reason I am assuming that FSU will be out by July 1 is that I think rather than risk a jailbreak if FSU should win the court case, or get a vastly lower exit cost, is that ESPN will pressure the ACC to settle, then an amount to leave will be set. Initially I think just FSU goes, but if it is FSU and Clemson and a third wants to leave, like Miami, the Kansas could get a pairing with Miami to either the SEC or Big 10. But getting a settlement is the key. IMO, it's the only way to get movement by this Summer.

And frankly speaking once FSU is gone, and I'm leaning much more toward them leaving alone, and should Kansas join them, that seems to me to open up a negotiation or decision among the remaining ACC brands over whether to leave as well. And if that happens, I think it all gets settled by Summer of 2025.

If the SEC and Big 10 both stand at 18, then figuring out the rest of the moves is more equitable. And other than possibly the 4 corners, the Big 12 will be done and out of the fray. The negotiations would be over the placement of ACC schools.

There are good things and bad things about Miami. The attendance and the dedicated fan base may always be a little underwhelming. The TV viewership seems to always be solid though despite their average performances. The SEC would help them keep more kids local and play at a higher level. I imagine there's quite a few South FL kids that simply don't want to play at small private schools up and down the East Coast.

I am generally in favor of adding them. If they're ready to leave then it makes sense. Speaking of which, if Clemson is still hesitant then Florida State and Miami make a very solid pair.

I've thought for a long time that ESPN wanted to keep total control of Kansas so it made sense to me they would cook up a way to get them in the SEC. I think culturally, there's a lot of drawing power now with Missouri and Oklahoma already in the fold. I think Kansas would be up for it and as the increase in basketball value approaches then it makes sense for the SEC as well.

The question to me is how you work them in being so many ACC programs seem to be on the fence. The key word there may be "seem," but I have a sneaking suspicion that the NC schools play a role...both of them. UNC and NC State were once voting against expansion. UNC cast a final vote against it, but NC State acquiesced. As for being against the Westward expansion....there's the obvious geographical reason, the obvious economic reason, but for NC State there's no reason to hold it up unless you're getting something in return you think you can cash in on later. NC State has never been the type to vote against expansion even if UNC and Duke often do.

In other words, NC State exchanged favors with someone for something.

Yes they (N.C. State) did. It remains to be seen why did they and for what? SEC inclusion or UNC and UVa's agreement to stay?

NCSU AD Corrigan (Boo or whatever) was a former ND AD and has deep generational ties to ND. Of course, ND AD Swarbrick pushed the effort to expand with Cal, Stanford, and SMU. Phillips works for that agenda.

NCSU flipped their vote in a staged scenario. Sure, the favor wasn’t disclosed. UNC knew and accepted the strategy. UNC plays both sides because they can.

If the SEC didn’t take ANY school from the State of North Carolina, and Virginia for that matter, I’d be OK with that. None of those schools would do what FSU is trying to do and what Maryland and South Carolina did during separate time periods.

Take FSU, and see what Clemson, and maybe Miamii, are willing to do. Though Georgia Tech has not been pouring enhanced resources into their athlete programs during recent years, they would have the potential to be an appreciated SEC member.

If Clemson leaves the ACC also, Louisville and Miami may become the prime ACC football workhorses.

That M7 is now bull dong. Maybe three others beyond FSU have been promised a P2 landing spot. UNC and Virginia are probably two of them.

Those M7 schools eager to accept FSU exit millions, need to be left in their own beloved cluster. ND will ride that conference until several more frustrated members find an outlet. Then those ND leaders will cleverly sweet talk another conference into treating them superior and special.

(01-18-2024 07:38 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(01-18-2024 10:22 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-18-2024 07:53 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-17-2024 08:01 PM)AzonTheKid Wrote:  Getting us (Kansas) out of the Big 12 GOR before play starts would be interesting as it would mean that FSU shakes loose of the ACC before July 1 of this year. I'm also working under the assumption that if FSU wins in court that it would essentially nullify the ACC GOR causing a "run" on the ACC. I'm not sure how many ACC properties we would be considered ahead of but I'm assuming that it's not very many considering our weaker football viewership and low state population.

I would be thrilled to get into the SEC though and renewing our rivalry with Missouri would be huge.

The reason I am assuming that FSU will be out by July 1 is that I think rather than risk a jailbreak if FSU should win the court case, or get a vastly lower exit cost, is that ESPN will pressure the ACC to settle, then an amount to leave will be set. Initially I think just FSU goes, but if it is FSU and Clemson and a third wants to leave, like Miami, the Kansas could get a pairing with Miami to either the SEC or Big 10. But getting a settlement is the key. IMO, it's the only way to get movement by this Summer.

And frankly speaking once FSU is gone, and I'm leaning much more toward them leaving alone, and should Kansas join them, that seems to me to open up a negotiation or decision among the remaining ACC brands over whether to leave as well. And if that happens, I think it all gets settled by Summer of 2025.

If the SEC and Big 10 both stand at 18, then figuring out the rest of the moves is more equitable. And other than possibly the 4 corners, the Big 12 will be done and out of the fray. The negotiations would be over the placement of ACC schools.

There are good things and bad things about Miami. The attendance and the dedicated fan base may always be a little underwhelming. The TV viewership seems to always be solid though despite their average performances. The SEC would help them keep more kids local and play at a higher level. I imagine there's quite a few South FL kids that simply don't want to play at small private schools up and down the East Coast.

I am generally in favor of adding them. If they're ready to leave then it makes sense. Speaking of which, if Clemson is still hesitant then Florida State and Miami make a very solid pair.

I've thought for a long time that ESPN wanted to keep total control of Kansas so it made sense to me they would cook up a way to get them in the SEC. I think culturally, there's a lot of drawing power now with Missouri and Oklahoma already in the fold. I think Kansas would be up for it and as the increase in basketball value approaches then it makes sense for the SEC as well.

The question to me is how you work them in being so many ACC programs seem to be on the fence. The key word there may be "seem," but I have a sneaking suspicion that the NC schools play a role...both of them. UNC and NC State were once voting against expansion. UNC cast a final vote against it, but NC State acquiesced. As for being against the Westward expansion....there's the obvious geographical reason, the obvious economic reason, but for NC State there's no reason to hold it up unless you're getting something in return you think you can cash in on later. NC State has never been the type to vote against expansion even if UNC and Duke often do.

In other words, NC State exchanged favors with someone for something.

Yes they (N.C. State) did. It remains to be seen why did they and for what? SEC inclusion or UNC and UVa's agreement to stay?

NCSU AD Corrigan (Boo or whatever) was a former ND AD and has deep generational ties to ND. Of course, ND AD Swarbrick pushed the effort to expand with Cal, Stanford, and SMU. Phillips works for that agenda.

NCSU flipped their vote in a staged scenario. Sure, the favor wasn’t disclosed. UNC knew and accepted the strategy. UNC plays both sides because they can.

If the SEC didn’t take ANY school from the State of North Carolina, and Virginia for that matter, I’d be OK with that. None of those schools would do what FSU is trying to do and what Maryland and South Carolina did during separate time periods.

Take FSU, and see what Clemson, and maybe Miamii, are willing to do. Though Georgia Tech has not been pouring enhanced resources into their athlete programs during recent years, they would have the potential to be an appreciated SEC member.

If Clemson leaves the ACC also, Louisville and Miami may become the prime ACC football workhorses.

That M7 is now bull dong. Maybe three others beyond FSU have been promised a P2 landing spot. UNC and Virginia are probably two of them.

Those M7 schools eager to accept FSU exit millions, need to be left in their own beloved cluster. ND will ride that conference until several more frustrated members find an outlet. Then those ND leaders will cleverly sweet talk another conference into treating them superior and special.

ND has and will fight and maneuver and do everything it can to protect football Independence and won't apologize for it, nor should they.

Everyone else does it to change conferences. ND does it to stay out of one.