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What Do You Get When Network Desires Are Fine Tuned By Conference Interests?
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JRsec Offline
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What Do You Get When Network Desires Are Fine Tuned By Conference Interests?
ESPN's Desires: Segregate Schools by Value, Expand Time Zone Reach, Protect the Monopoly of Southeastern Rights, Take the Best Brand in Each Market, Land Notre Dame.

FOX's Desires: Segregate Schools by Value, Acquire Games in the Southeast, Take the Best City Markets in Each Region, Land Notre Dame.

SEC's Desires: Secure Second Florida School, Secure Best Southern Brands, Protect Your Brand, Expand on the Periphery of the Conference (Meaning add North Carolina and Virginia, and possibly Kansas to the Footprint.)

B1G's Desires: Focus on AAU Schools, Get into the Largest Markets, Expand Your Brand, Add Football Content Brands.

Obviously, the Networks and Conferences will likely compromise in Florida, and there is room to match all 4 sets of agendas. Miami to the Big 10 and FSU to the SEC keeps the SEC and ESPN in control of ad revenue rates in the state, but Miami puts FOX into a large market without tipping the balance that the SEC and ESPN want to preserve. Then there's Tampa St.Pete. Does FOX go for another major city market, does the SEC make a preemptive move? There's room for surprise there but there are more targets which deliver more now which will push this decision near the bottom of all decisions made.

What is the pathway for FOX into the Southeast without upsetting ESPN or the SEC?
Duke can be justified to the Big 10 because nearly 50% of its enrollment comes from the New England area including New Jersey, or from California. If ESPN is to appease those concerned about UNC in the SEC, the taking of N.C. State also cinches that hold for ESPN and the SEC. Virginia is the bigger brand, but Virginia Tech has the greater draw. This comes down to what the Big 10 and FOX want to accomplish in Virginia. If they want to enhance their football standing, they'll take Tech which is within consideration distance for AAU. If they simply want the biggest brand name academically, they take Virginia. The SEC would be content with either.

So, the pathway for FOX and ESPN to compromise down the East Coast would be with Miami, Duke, Virginia/or Tech to the Big 10 and with the SEC picking up Florida State, North Carolina, N.C. State, and Virginia/or Tech. The Big 10 connects the dots and stays true to parameters when FOX agrees to pro rata for Georgia Tech.

The Big 10 now looks West by taking East. Stanford joins the Big 10 ranks along with Arizona. The Big 10 stands at 24.

The Big 10 doesn't get as much bang for Kansas as the SEC would so Kansas to the SEC along with Colorado, Arizona State gets pushed into the mix by ESPN, and Clemson rounds out the final 4 in for the SEC.

What about the Big Prize of Notre Dame? The Irish split their upper tier schedule between the Big 10 and SEC.

The Big 12 becomes a true tweener: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Louisville, California

SEC: Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina, Virginia/or Tech,


Big 10: Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Penn State, Virginia/ or Tech
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Arizona, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Washington


Big 12: Brigham Young, California, Oregon State, Texas Tech, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, S.M.U., T.C.U.
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central Florida, Memphis, Houston, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest


Now FOX and ESPN can expand the playoffs to 16 teams. Each Divisional Champion gets a bid (3 conference x 4 divisions = 12 slots) and 4 at large are selected and those 4 would open at the home of the top 4 seeds.

The Big Money is paid to the SEC and Big 10, a lesser but still competitive amount is paid to the Big 12.

FOX and ESPN continue to split the rights to the Big 12.

FOX and partners keep the Big 10. ESPN keeps the SEC.

Notre Dame calls themselves independent but plays a tough enough schedule to take one of those at large positions.

I'm not saying this is what you get, I am saying it is the kind of thing you might get if ESPN and FOX encourage compromise to get it all done.

It is in such a milieu that you would have almost a blackout of information until the moves were simply just announced. That, IMO, remains a viable possibility given the complexities of picking off schools one at the time.
01-17-2024 08:55 PM
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