I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

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(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

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I think you have a wild imagination. Never heard anything like yours before. And it doesn't make any sense.

I think that you're giving ESPN too much credit. They're worried about tomorrow, not 2030. Iger trimmed off so much fat that he got some of the meat, too, and people at ESPN should be terrified of what comes next. What comes next COULD be a consolidation and dominance of College Sports as a whole, but it's just as likely to be a refocus onto the SEC and the CFP, with only scraps left over for everyone else.

Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

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Please show your work. What is ESPN doing to FSU that is harming the B1G?

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which have a great first year)

It is clearly that B1G is a full property of NBC/Fox alliance which also owns Big East basketball. NBC/Fox expanded LA market by absorbing USC/UCLA using B1G. Logically NBC/Fox would like to expand to Florida by taking Miami and FSU next. But ESPN will fight them off logically and protect their important property. If ESPN needs to spend money, they will. I don't think a dramatic move from either side is in the near future. We may see no more alignment on P4 in the next ten years. The rebuilt P2 conference will be no longer a P5 conference.

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

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No

Even if ESPN was concerned about having Big 10 inventory they would not want all 18 schools, perhaps 6 of them. That means they would be more inclined to either preserve the ACC, or move the important brands to the SEC in hopes of one day luring the product they actually wanted from the Big 10 into one top tier league. And I doubt they are currently thinking of anything but hanging onto to what they have.

I don’t think there’s any reason why ESPN would be messing with the ACC contract (whether it’s with respect to FSU, UNC or anyone else). I’ve said that for the past year and it’s even more the case with Bob Iger’s public statements over the last month.

Disney is simply in austerity mode. ESPN revenue is irreversibly in decline, which means increasing costs for content that they already have (as is the case with the individual ACC schools) makes no sense looking at what’s going on with Disney overall. There’s talk that ESPN might exercise an option to get out of its MLB contract to save money in a couple of years. I’ll believe it when I see it, but that’s basically saying that ESPN is so concerned about costs that they would seriously think of essentially giving up the only live programming that they have of any value from June through August. THAT is how bad it is. They’re simply not providing any incentive to either break open the ACC contract or, much worse, need to increase the money on another existing contract (the SEC) or add a new contract (the Big Ten). I believe that ESPN has what it wants for college football and they’re just trying to get through the next few years (until they’ve launched the new over-the-top ESPN streaming service) without having to pay for anything more other than a new NBA contract and the new CFP contract.

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

More nonsense.

The paycheck gets larger as the years go by.

(12-18-2023 02:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

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No

Even if ESPN was concerned about having Big 10 inventory they would not want all 18 schools, perhaps 6 of them. That means they would be more inclined to either preserve the ACC, or move the important brands to the SEC in hopes of one day luring the product they actually wanted from the Big 10 into one top tier league. And I doubt they are currently thinking of anything but hanging onto to what they have.

If this Rapinoe and Griner loving network only sees value in 6 BIG programs then that's their loss. FOX has been a wonderful partner to the BIG and there is no need for that trash in Bristol. ESPN is really just a shell of what it once was, if we're being honest.

(12-18-2023 03:58 PM)cubucks Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 02:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

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No

Even if ESPN was concerned about having Big 10 inventory they would not want all 18 schools, perhaps 6 of them. That means they would be more inclined to either preserve the ACC, or move the important brands to the SEC in hopes of one day luring the product they actually wanted from the Big 10 into one top tier league. And I doubt they are currently thinking of anything but hanging onto to what they have.

If this Rapinoe and Griner loving network only sees value in 6 BIG programs then that's their loss. FOX has been a wonderful partner to the BIG and there is no need for that trash in Bristol. ESPN is really just a shell of what it once was, if we're being honest.

All of the corporately owned networks are trash. We should form the upper tier (with about 3 conferences) and sell our rights as one. We'd all make a lot more money than by letting them play us off one against another. That way we keep our regional identities and maximize our revenue at the same time. And the new CFP structure should belong to those 3 conferences as a bargaining unit and the coverage should be bid out on an annual basis. Ditto for any subsequent hoops tournament (though the field would be broader than 3 conferences).

For the past dozen or so years college athletic programs have merely been pawns on the corporate sports right's chess board.

(12-18-2023 03:58 PM)cubucks Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 02:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

No

Even if ESPN was concerned about having Big 10 inventory they would not want all 18 schools, perhaps 6 of them. That means they would be more inclined to either preserve the ACC, or move the important brands to the SEC in hopes of one day luring the product they actually wanted from the Big 10 into one top tier league. And I doubt they are currently thinking of anything but hanging onto to what they have.

If this Rapinoe and Griner loving network only sees value in 6 BIG programs then that's their loss. FOX has been a wonderful partner to the BIG and there is no need for that trash in Bristol. ESPN is really just a shell of what it once was, if we're being honest.

Eh - that was some hyperbole from JRsec there. Let’s not get into any rabbit hole about what ESPN or Fox supports. You can be assured that the Big Ten presidents likely agree with the “Rapinie and Griner loving” stances even more than the SEC presidents, but when it comes to TV contracts, the only color that these presidents see is the color green (as opposed to red or blue).

It’s not a question about whether any network (ESPN, Fox, NBC, CBS, etc.) wants particular content, but rather how much they are willing to pay for that particular content and if they align with the desired time slots. ESPN made a very strong offer for the Big Ten in the last negotiations and if it were just a matter of money, the B1G would likely still have at least one package on ESPN. However, other networks were offering both the money *and* guaranteed time slots that ESPN wasn’t able to offer.

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

What did NBC get for their ~ $350m to the B1G?

11/24 - PSU vs MSU - 3.38m viewers #10 that week
11/18 - Nebraska vs Wisconsin - 2.45m #7 that week
11/11 - MSU vs tOSU 3.57m #6 that week
11/4 - Purdue vs Michigan 2.6m #9
10/28 - tOSU vs Wisconson, 4.87m #2
10/21 - Michigan vs MSU 3.73m #4
10/21 - Minnesota vs Iowa 1.68m #10
10/7 - Michigan vs Minnesota 3.07m #6
9/30 - MSU vs Iowa 2.17m #9
9/23 - Maryland v MSU 1.24m #15
9/16 - Syracuse v Purdue 1.25m #12
9/9 - Charlotte v Maryland 665k #17
9/2 - WV v PSU 3.5m #5

Compare that with what they got from ND
11/18 - WF v ND 1.48m #13 for week
10/28 - Pitt v ND 1.89m #11 for week
10/14 - USC v ND 6.43m #2 for week
9/23 - tOSU v ND (at ND) 9.98m #2 for week
9/2 - Tenn St v ND 1.56m #15 for week
8/26 - Navy v ND 3.56m #1 for week 0

NBC got the ND vs tOSU game b/c it was at ND, but they didn't get the ND vs Clemson game (which hit 10m just a couple years ago) b/c it was @ Clemson. 2 ND games over 5m with one at basically 10m, those 2 are probably worth more than all the B1G games combined for NBC. Don't give any bonus for the couple of huge ND games and just add in total viewership for the 6 ND games vs the 13 B1G games?

ND: 24.9m - 4.15m per game
B1G: 34.3m - 2.63m per game

B1G cost ~ $350m
ND cost ~ $15m

It's hardly any wonder that NBC agreed to such a huge bump for ND's next contract. Even with an almost exactly average season (9 wins so far this year before the bowl game, ND is averaging 9.5 wins per year over the past 12 years), ND still delivered the ratings for NBC, while the 2nd or 3rd best weekly B1G game mostly didn't. In fact, NBC didn't get over 5m a single time in their 13 B1G contests, despite a bevy of games that looked solid on paper throughout the season. Their schedule doesn't look as appealing in 2024, with only FSU as a premier home game and potentially Louisville as another, but in 2025? They get USC, A&M and a couple of ACC games that look to be pretty interesting. ND's ratings seem likely to remain solid.

However, what about the B1G? Isn't CBS going to get more of those 2nd-choice B1G contests starting next year? NBC's slate of 2024 B1G contests seems unlikely to surpass what they got this year. If I was running the numbers at NBC, I'd want more ND home games and less of Purdue-Michigan and a whole lot less MSU games.

(12-18-2023 04:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

What did NBC get for their ~ $350m to the B1G?

11/24 - PSU vs MSU - 3.38m viewers #10 that week
11/18 - Nebraska vs Wisconsin - 2.45m #7 that week
11/11 - MSU vs tOSU 3.57m #6 that week
11/4 - Purdue vs Michigan 2.6m #9
10/28 - tOSU vs Wisconson, 4.87m #2
10/21 - Michigan vs MSU 3.73m #4
10/21 - Minnesota vs Iowa 1.68m #10
10/7 - Michigan vs Minnesota 3.07m #6
9/30 - MSU vs Iowa 2.17m #9
9/23 - Maryland v MSU 1.24m #15
9/16 - Syracuse v Purdue 1.25m #12
9/9 - Charlotte v Maryland 665k #17
9/2 - WV v PSU 3.5m #5

Compare that with what they got from ND
11/18 - WF v ND 1.48m #13 for week
10/28 - Pitt v ND 1.89m #11 for week
10/14 - USC v ND 6.43m #2 for week
9/23 - tOSU v ND (at ND) 9.98m #2 for week
9/2 - Tenn St v ND 1.56m #15 for week
8/26 - Navy v ND 3.56m #1 for week 0

NBC got the ND vs tOSU game b/c it was at ND, but they didn't get the ND vs Clemson game (which hit 10m just a couple years ago) b/c it was @ Clemson. 2 ND games over 5m with one at basically 10m, those 2 are probably worth more than all the B1G games combined for NBC. Don't give any bonus for the couple of huge ND games and just add in total viewership for the 6 ND games vs the 13 B1G games?

ND: 24.9m
B1G: 34.3m

B1G cost ~ $350m
ND cost ~ $15m

It's hardly any wonder that NBC agreed to such a huge bump in ND's pay. Even with a so-so season, ND still delivered the ratings for NBC, while the 2nd or 3rd best weekly B1G game mostly didn't. In fact, NBC didn't get over 5m a single time in their 13 B1G contests, despite a bevy of games that looked solid on paper throughout the season. Their schedule doesn't look as appealing in 2024, with only FSU as a premier home game and potentially Louisville as another, but in 2025? They get USC, A&M and a couple of ACC games that look to be pretty interesting. ND's ratings seem likely to remain solid.

However, what about the B1G? Isn't CBS going to get more of those 2nd-choice B1G contests starting next year? NBC's slate of 2024 B1G contests seems unlikely to surpass what they got this year. If I was running the numbers at NBC, I'd want more ND home games and less of Purdue-Michigan and a whole lot less MSU games.

And all of that can be readily explained by saying football is a Southeastern and Southwestern sport for which the enthusiasm is shared in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Michigan. With Notre Dame it is merely the size of the base that identifies with their brand, more than any location. Post Boomers the comparison will be even more stark.

(12-18-2023 04:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

What did NBC get for their ~ $350m to the B1G?

11/24 - PSU vs MSU - 3.38m viewers #10 that week
11/18 - Nebraska vs Wisconsin - 2.45m #7 that week
11/11 - MSU vs tOSU 3.57m #6 that week
11/4 - Purdue vs Michigan 2.6m #9
10/28 - tOSU vs Wisconson, 4.87m #2
10/21 - Michigan vs MSU 3.73m #4
10/21 - Minnesota vs Iowa 1.68m #10
10/7 - Michigan vs Minnesota 3.07m #6
9/30 - MSU vs Iowa 2.17m #9
9/23 - Maryland v MSU 1.24m #15
9/16 - Syracuse v Purdue 1.25m #12
9/9 - Charlotte v Maryland 665k #17
9/2 - WV v PSU 3.5m #5

Compare that with what they got from ND
11/18 - WF v ND 1.48m #13 for week
10/28 - Pitt v ND 1.89m #11 for week
10/14 - USC v ND 6.43m #2 for week
9/23 - tOSU v ND (at ND) 9.98m #2 for week
9/2 - Tenn St v ND 1.56m #15 for week
8/26 - Navy v ND 3.56m #1 for week 0

NBC got the ND vs tOSU game b/c it was at ND, but they didn't get the ND vs Clemson game (which hit 10m just a couple years ago) b/c it was @ Clemson. 2 ND games over 5m with one at basically 10m, those 2 are probably worth more than all the B1G games combined for NBC. Don't give any bonus for the couple of huge ND games and just add in total viewership for the 6 ND games vs the 13 B1G games?

ND: 24.9m - 4.15m per game
B1G: 34.3m - 2.63m per game

B1G cost ~ $350m
ND cost ~ $15m

It's hardly any wonder that NBC agreed to such a huge bump for ND's next contract. Even with an almost exactly average season (9 wins so far this year before the bowl game, ND is averaging 9.5 wins per year over the past 12 years), ND still delivered the ratings for NBC, while the 2nd or 3rd best weekly B1G game mostly didn't. In fact, NBC didn't get over 5m a single time in their 13 B1G contests, despite a bevy of games that looked solid on paper throughout the season. Their schedule doesn't look as appealing in 2024, with only FSU as a premier home game and potentially Louisville as another, but in 2025? They get USC, A&M and a couple of ACC games that look to be pretty interesting. ND's ratings seem likely to remain solid.

However, what about the B1G? Isn't CBS going to get more of those 2nd-choice B1G contests starting next year? NBC's slate of 2024 B1G contests seems unlikely to surpass what they got this year. If I was running the numbers at NBC, I'd want more ND home games and less of Purdue-Michigan and a whole lot less MSU games.

To be sure, this looks totally different with Oregon, Washington and USC games integrated. More importantly, it was the USC/UCLA expansion that got NBC to come back in and get the winning bid for the prime time package over Amazon. NBC wasn’t looking at paying a premium for the 14-school Big Ten (at least compared to Amazon or ESPN), but that changed with the USC/UCLA move.

(12-18-2023 02:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

No

Even if ESPN was concerned about having Big 10 inventory they would not want all 18 schools, perhaps 6 of them. That means they would be more inclined to either preserve the ACC, or move the important brands to the SEC in hopes of one day luring the product they actually wanted from the Big 10 into one top tier league. And I doubt they are currently thinking of anything but hanging onto to what they have.

See my deep dive into the NBC games from the B1G from 2023 above. It's brutal. I don't think that ESPN would want anything to do with the B1G unless they can get equal choice with Fox or the clear #1 choice most weeks. They were wise to bow out of the bidding when they did, NBC grossly overpaid, and CBS made an all-time blunder by paying more for the B1G leftovers instead of the #1 SEC game. There will be a lot more quality B1G games with the 4 new additions though, perhaps the ratings for the life of the contract will look better by the end. Let's hope so for NBC's and CBS's sakes.

(12-18-2023 04:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 03:58 PM)cubucks Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 02:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:07 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  I just had that thought while I was having lunch and mulling all of this FSU stuff over.

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

No

Even if ESPN was concerned about having Big 10 inventory they would not want all 18 schools, perhaps 6 of them. That means they would be more inclined to either preserve the ACC, or move the important brands to the SEC in hopes of one day luring the product they actually wanted from the Big 10 into one top tier league. And I doubt they are currently thinking of anything but hanging onto to what they have.

If this Rapinoe and Griner loving network only sees value in 6 BIG programs then that's their loss. FOX has been a wonderful partner to the BIG and there is no need for that trash in Bristol. ESPN is really just a shell of what it once was, if we're being honest.

All of the corporately owned networks are trash. We should form the upper tier (with about 3 conferences) and sell our rights as one. We'd all make a lot more money than by letting them play us off one against another. That way we keep our regional identities and maximize our revenue at the same time. And the new CFP structure should belong to those 3 conferences as a bargaining unit and the coverage should be bid out on an annual basis. Ditto for any subsequent hoops tournament (though the field would be broader than 3 conferences).

For the past dozen or so years college athletic programs have merely been pawns on the corporate sports right's chess board.

I can agree with that!

(12-18-2023 04:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 04:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

What did NBC get for their ~ $350m to the B1G?

11/24 - PSU vs MSU - 3.38m viewers #10 that week
11/18 - Nebraska vs Wisconsin - 2.45m #7 that week
11/11 - MSU vs tOSU 3.57m #6 that week
11/4 - Purdue vs Michigan 2.6m #9
10/28 - tOSU vs Wisconson, 4.87m #2
10/21 - Michigan vs MSU 3.73m #4
10/21 - Minnesota vs Iowa 1.68m #10
10/7 - Michigan vs Minnesota 3.07m #6
9/30 - MSU vs Iowa 2.17m #9
9/23 - Maryland v MSU 1.24m #15
9/16 - Syracuse v Purdue 1.25m #12
9/9 - Charlotte v Maryland 665k #17
9/2 - WV v PSU 3.5m #5

Compare that with what they got from ND
11/18 - WF v ND 1.48m #13 for week
10/28 - Pitt v ND 1.89m #11 for week
10/14 - USC v ND 6.43m #2 for week
9/23 - tOSU v ND (at ND) 9.98m #2 for week
9/2 - Tenn St v ND 1.56m #15 for week
8/26 - Navy v ND 3.56m #1 for week 0

NBC got the ND vs tOSU game b/c it was at ND, but they didn't get the ND vs Clemson game (which hit 10m just a couple years ago) b/c it was @ Clemson. 2 ND games over 5m with one at basically 10m, those 2 are probably worth more than all the B1G games combined for NBC. Don't give any bonus for the couple of huge ND games and just add in total viewership for the 6 ND games vs the 13 B1G games?

ND: 24.9m - 4.15m per game
B1G: 34.3m - 2.63m per game

B1G cost ~ $350m
ND cost ~ $15m

It's hardly any wonder that NBC agreed to such a huge bump for ND's next contract. Even with an almost exactly average season (9 wins so far this year before the bowl game, ND is averaging 9.5 wins per year over the past 12 years), ND still delivered the ratings for NBC, while the 2nd or 3rd best weekly B1G game mostly didn't. In fact, NBC didn't get over 5m a single time in their 13 B1G contests, despite a bevy of games that looked solid on paper throughout the season. Their schedule doesn't look as appealing in 2024, with only FSU as a premier home game and potentially Louisville as another, but in 2025? They get USC, A&M and a couple of ACC games that look to be pretty interesting. ND's ratings seem likely to remain solid.

However, what about the B1G? Isn't CBS going to get more of those 2nd-choice B1G contests starting next year? NBC's slate of 2024 B1G contests seems unlikely to surpass what they got this year. If I was running the numbers at NBC, I'd want more ND home games and less of Purdue-Michigan and a whole lot less MSU games.

To be sure, this looks totally different with Oregon, Washington and USC games integrated. More importantly, it was the USC/UCLA expansion that got NBC to come back in and get the winning bid for the prime time package over Amazon. NBC wasn’t looking at paying a premium for the 14-school Big Ten (at least compared to Amazon or ESPN), but that changed with the USC/UCLA move.

Agreed. It's reasonable to expect a boost in the mid/upper tier of B1G highly rated games, but the pie will also be split more ways next year with CBS picking every week instead of just 5 times throughout the entire season. Those 5 picks were above the average of NBC's 13 games, with ratings ranging from 2.75m to 4.6m.

Hilariously, as I was scrolling back, I looked at CBS's last 6 SEC broadcasts this season:

SEC CCG: Georgia v Bama - 17.5m
11/25: Bama v Auburn - 9m
11/18: Georgia v Tennessee - 5.7m
11/11: Tennessee v Missouri - 3.6m
11/4: LSU v Alabama 8.8m
11/4: Missouri v Georgia - 7.0m

51.6m over their last 6 SEC contests, with scant prospect for even 1 CBS game a year in the B1G to beat that 6 game average. Nice job CBS.

(12-18-2023 04:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 04:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

What did NBC get for their ~ $350m to the B1G?

11/24 - PSU vs MSU - 3.38m viewers #10 that week
11/18 - Nebraska vs Wisconsin - 2.45m #7 that week
11/11 - MSU vs tOSU 3.57m #6 that week
11/4 - Purdue vs Michigan 2.6m #9
10/28 - tOSU vs Wisconson, 4.87m #2
10/21 - Michigan vs MSU 3.73m #4
10/21 - Minnesota vs Iowa 1.68m #10
10/7 - Michigan vs Minnesota 3.07m #6
9/30 - MSU vs Iowa 2.17m #9
9/23 - Maryland v MSU 1.24m #15
9/16 - Syracuse v Purdue 1.25m #12
9/9 - Charlotte v Maryland 665k #17
9/2 - WV v PSU 3.5m #5

Compare that with what they got from ND
11/18 - WF v ND 1.48m #13 for week
10/28 - Pitt v ND 1.89m #11 for week
10/14 - USC v ND 6.43m #2 for week
9/23 - tOSU v ND (at ND) 9.98m #2 for week
9/2 - Tenn St v ND 1.56m #15 for week
8/26 - Navy v ND 3.56m #1 for week 0

NBC got the ND vs tOSU game b/c it was at ND, but they didn't get the ND vs Clemson game (which hit 10m just a couple years ago) b/c it was @ Clemson. 2 ND games over 5m with one at basically 10m, those 2 are probably worth more than all the B1G games combined for NBC. Don't give any bonus for the couple of huge ND games and just add in total viewership for the 6 ND games vs the 13 B1G games?

ND: 24.9m
B1G: 34.3m

B1G cost ~ $350m
ND cost ~ $15m

It's hardly any wonder that NBC agreed to such a huge bump in ND's pay. Even with a so-so season, ND still delivered the ratings for NBC, while the 2nd or 3rd best weekly B1G game mostly didn't. In fact, NBC didn't get over 5m a single time in their 13 B1G contests, despite a bevy of games that looked solid on paper throughout the season. Their schedule doesn't look as appealing in 2024, with only FSU as a premier home game and potentially Louisville as another, but in 2025? They get USC, A&M and a couple of ACC games that look to be pretty interesting. ND's ratings seem likely to remain solid.

However, what about the B1G? Isn't CBS going to get more of those 2nd-choice B1G contests starting next year? NBC's slate of 2024 B1G contests seems unlikely to surpass what they got this year. If I was running the numbers at NBC, I'd want more ND home games and less of Purdue-Michigan and a whole lot less MSU games.

And all of that can be readily explained by saying football is a Southeastern and Southwestern sport for which the enthusiasm is shared in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Michigan. With Notre Dame it is merely the size of the base that identifies with their brand, more than any location. Post Boomers the comparison will be even more stark.

I don't think football is a southern sport. Maybe college football is, but football in general is a national sport. NFL stadiums in LA, Denver, San Francisco, Minnesota, Chicago, and Indianapolis have all been at that 100% attendance for 2023. If we include the three states you mentioned, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, they are all a touch over 100%. If the new look college football becomes more "NFL like", we may just pull a lot of professional sports fans back to the college game. Those NFL TV numbers make the college game look silly.

(12-18-2023 04:41 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 04:26 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 04:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(12-18-2023 01:24 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Right now, ESPN has FSU's content extremely cheap because they are on the backend of the awful ACC Media Deal.

Another round of realignment would be hazardous to ESPN.

B1G would likely go to market and get more money from NBC or add The CW. (which had a great first year)

What did NBC get for their ~ $350m to the B1G?

11/24 - PSU vs MSU - 3.38m viewers #10 that week
11/18 - Nebraska vs Wisconsin - 2.45m #7 that week
11/11 - MSU vs tOSU 3.57m #6 that week
11/4 - Purdue vs Michigan 2.6m #9
10/28 - tOSU vs Wisconson, 4.87m #2
10/21 - Michigan vs MSU 3.73m #4
10/21 - Minnesota vs Iowa 1.68m #10
10/7 - Michigan vs Minnesota 3.07m #6
9/30 - MSU vs Iowa 2.17m #9
9/23 - Maryland v MSU 1.24m #15
9/16 - Syracuse v Purdue 1.25m #12
9/9 - Charlotte v Maryland 665k #17
9/2 - WV v PSU 3.5m #5

Compare that with what they got from ND
11/18 - WF v ND 1.48m #13 for week
10/28 - Pitt v ND 1.89m #11 for week
10/14 - USC v ND 6.43m #2 for week
9/23 - tOSU v ND (at ND) 9.98m #2 for week
9/2 - Tenn St v ND 1.56m #15 for week
8/26 - Navy v ND 3.56m #1 for week 0

NBC got the ND vs tOSU game b/c it was at ND, but they didn't get the ND vs Clemson game (which hit 10m just a couple years ago) b/c it was @ Clemson. 2 ND games over 5m with one at basically 10m, those 2 are probably worth more than all the B1G games combined for NBC. Don't give any bonus for the couple of huge ND games and just add in total viewership for the 6 ND games vs the 13 B1G games?

ND: 24.9m - 4.15m per game
B1G: 34.3m - 2.63m per game

B1G cost ~ $350m
ND cost ~ $15m

It's hardly any wonder that NBC agreed to such a huge bump for ND's next contract. Even with an almost exactly average season (9 wins so far this year before the bowl game, ND is averaging 9.5 wins per year over the past 12 years), ND still delivered the ratings for NBC, while the 2nd or 3rd best weekly B1G game mostly didn't. In fact, NBC didn't get over 5m a single time in their 13 B1G contests, despite a bevy of games that looked solid on paper throughout the season. Their schedule doesn't look as appealing in 2024, with only FSU as a premier home game and potentially Louisville as another, but in 2025? They get USC, A&M and a couple of ACC games that look to be pretty interesting. ND's ratings seem likely to remain solid.

However, what about the B1G? Isn't CBS going to get more of those 2nd-choice B1G contests starting next year? NBC's slate of 2024 B1G contests seems unlikely to surpass what they got this year. If I was running the numbers at NBC, I'd want more ND home games and less of Purdue-Michigan and a whole lot less MSU games.

To be sure, this looks totally different with Oregon, Washington and USC games integrated. More importantly, it was the USC/UCLA expansion that got NBC to come back in and get the winning bid for the prime time package over Amazon. NBC wasn’t looking at paying a premium for the 14-school Big Ten (at least compared to Amazon or ESPN), but that changed with the USC/UCLA move.

Agreed. It's reasonable to expect a boost in the mid/upper tier of B1G highly rated games, but the pie will also be split more ways next year with CBS picking every week instead of just 5 times throughout the entire season. Those 5 picks were above the average of NBC's 13 games, with ratings ranging from 2.75m to 4.6m.

Hilariously, as I was scrolling back, I looked at CBS's last 6 SEC broadcasts this season:

SEC CCG: Georgia v Bama - 17.5m
11/25: Bama v Auburn - 9m
11/18: Georgia v Tennessee - 5.7m
11/11: Tennessee v Missouri - 3.6m
11/4: LSU v Alabama 8.8m
11/4: Missouri v Georgia - 7.0m

51.6m over their last 6 SEC contests, with scant prospect for even 1 CBS game a year in the B1G to beat that 6 game average. Nice job CBS.

CBS had no shot at the SEC contract signed with ESPN. And everyone needs to remember that this came well into a contract with the SEC that everyone in the industry recognized was grossly undervalued. The pro rata would have been simply a head nod to the rottenness of the existing contract and would have been accepted with some grace. CBS tossed away all of their good will with the SEC for the refusal to pay what at the time was a little over 7 million more annually for their share of the pro rata on the A&M and Missouri additions. Perfect illustration of penny wise and pound foolish. And we are now rid of Danielson to boot! But that said we still face a Mowins problems.