(04-15-2024 07:51 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 07:18 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 09:31 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  This is a road series an NCAA at large team would win. Yet another example of what the detractors have been saying about Ike coached teams. They got a sweep of App and followed it up with a series loss to a .500 team.

Bingo.
Every year it is like this. Absolutely no consistency.
And it's not like this only happens once a year. It happens far too much for a team that beat one of the best teams in the country early this year.
There too large of a sample size to call this series an outlier. This is what Ike teams do.
Win games they probably shouldn't win.
Lose series that absolutely shouldn't lose.

I'm confused, you say JMU baseball is mid tier but then in the same statement say they should absolutely win a Q1 series.

Everyone is looking at ODU's record and ignoring who they have played. Top 10 SOS. This ODU team is good and has a weak schedule to finish out the season and will easily be above .500 by a bit come SBC tourney time.

This team upset the #3 team in the country.
Beat VT.
They swept App State.
Won series against 21-12 ETSU
Also the same team loses series against ODU, Texas State, and Georgia State.
My point is that they have some really good wins and they should be a good team.
But then lose 3 series against teams hovering around .500.
Not saying they had to win all of those series, but they should be good enough to win at least 1 or 2 of those three.
But that's the problem. They won some really good games, but then lose to teams they probably shouldn't lose a series to.

(04-15-2024 08:30 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 07:51 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 07:18 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(04-14-2024 09:31 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  This is a road series an NCAA at large team would win. Yet another example of what the detractors have been saying about Ike coached teams. They got a sweep of App and followed it up with a series loss to a .500 team.

Bingo.
Every year it is like this. Absolutely no consistency.
And it's not like this only happens once a year. It happens far too much for a team that beat one of the best teams in the country early this year.
There too large of a sample size to call this series an outlier. This is what Ike teams do.
Win games they probably shouldn't win.
Lose series that absolutely shouldn't lose.

I'm confused, you say JMU baseball is mid tier but then in the same statement say they should absolutely win a Q1 series.

Everyone is looking at ODU's record and ignoring who they have played. Top 10 SOS. This ODU team is good and has a weak schedule to finish out the season and will easily be above .500 by a bit come SBC tourney time.

This team upset the #3 team in the country.
Beat VT.
They swept App State.
Won series against 21-12 ETSU
Also the same team loses series against ODU, Texas State, and Georgia State.
My point is that they have some really good wins and they should be a good team.
But then lose 3 series against teams hovering around .500.
Not saying they had to win all of those series, but they should be good enough to win at least 1 or 2 of those three.
But that's the problem. They won some really good games, but then lose to teams they probably shouldn't lose a series to.

I will give you Texas State as a slip up, but Georgia State and ODU were both Top 75 RPI teams on the road. Those are hard series to win unless you are a Top 25 team. Yes, long term that should be the goal of the program, but this hasn't been a Top 100 program in a long while so having Top 25 expectations is ludicrous.

(04-15-2024 10:26 AM)MarginalDuke Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 09:57 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 08:30 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 07:51 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  

(04-15-2024 07:18 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  Bingo.
Every year it is like this. Absolutely no consistency.
And it's not like this only happens once a year. It happens far too much for a team that beat one of the best teams in the country early this year.
There too large of a sample size to call this series an outlier. This is what Ike teams do.
Win games they probably shouldn't win.
Lose series that absolutely shouldn't lose.

I'm confused, you say JMU baseball is mid tier but then in the same statement say they should absolutely win a Q1 series.

Everyone is looking at ODU's record and ignoring who they have played. Top 10 SOS. This ODU team is good and has a weak schedule to finish out the season and will easily be above .500 by a bit come SBC tourney time.

This team upset the #3 team in the country.
Beat VT.
They swept App State.
Won series against 21-12 ETSU
Also the same team loses series against ODU, Texas State, and Georgia State.
My point is that they have some really good wins and they should be a good team.
But then lose 3 series against teams hovering around .500.
Not saying they had to win all of those series, but they should be good enough to win at least 1 or 2 of those three.
But that's the problem. They won some really good games, but then lose to teams they probably shouldn't lose a series to.

I will give you Texas State as a slip up, but Georgia State and ODU were both Top 75 RPI teams on the road. Those are hard series to win unless you are a Top 25 team. Yes, long term that should be the goal of the program, but this hasn't been a Top 100 program in a long while so having Top 25 expectations is ludicrous.

So you admit we’re not a top 25 team then? Last week you were running your mouth about how good our RPI was. That your be-all end-all statistic was not subject to random error and wasn’t a fluke. Either we are overrated according to the metric as I suggested last week that you weren’t buying or you just proved 03’s point that we fail to win the winnable series and that’s why Ike can’t reach the next level.

Which is it?

So there are two Top 25 designations I have referenced: RPI and rankings. Currently we just slipped out of RPI Top 25 (to 26 now), but I never said we were a Top 25 rankings team like my above post referenced. Maybe should have been clearer in my post.

All I am trying to do is remind people that this team still has an at-large possibility and is playing NCAAT teams week in and week out. This isn't the CAA anymore.

It would like playing basketball in the Big 12 and getting upset that JMU has a .500 team losing to the likes of BYU and Kansas State but in the conversation for a NCAAT bid. While the team hasn't made the tourney in over a decade.

(04-08-2024 09:24 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  

(04-08-2024 08:46 AM)MarginalDuke Wrote:  

(04-08-2024 08:08 AM)ShadyP Wrote:  

(04-08-2024 08:05 AM)MarginalDuke Wrote:  

(04-08-2024 07:30 AM)Dukes_Royals Wrote:  Shhhh..... All the Ikenberry detractors will get upset that we still have an at-large bid chance this year.

Win 2 of the 4 series against ODU, Georgia Southern, South Alabama, and Troy and win both against Marshall and Arkansas State and that should make the resume hard to argue against.

Yeah as someone who has painfully tracked this team through the Ikenberry regime, don’t get ahead of yourself.

This team is consistently inconsistent. Don’t worry, he’ll have a bunch of head-scratching losses that will knock us out of contention for both an AQ and AL.

Just because he has good one good weekend don’t get so excited. Odds are much higher we don’t see the postseason. Not trying to be rude but don’t get your hopes up. He has shown the ability to lose games on his own management time after time.

You don't have an RPI of #25 by having one good weekend.

You can if you beat low Quad opponents regularly and play enough high quality teams win or lose and have a good one. We have a bunch of “quality losses” which makes the A10 overrated in basketball but not JMU in baseball.

We’ve been in close games where we barely beat terrible teams. We also create self-inflicted losses when we play up to better teams than us. We are the epitome of playing to our opponent and we’ve done that for almost a decade. That’s not good coaching - if your results are unpredictable weekend by weekend then you’re recruiting the wrong guys or you have a terrible approach as a manager.

It’s a long season. Every year we have this discussion - either the team has a good record or good RPI then we fizzle out as the season goes on. Last year we were uncompetitive in the SBCT and we were 100 in RPI after a strong start.

You might be right that Ike lead teams play up or down to the level of competition. In the CAA that meant no at large possibilities because it wasn't a great league. In the Sun Belt it means at large chances because 10 teams are in the Top 100 RPI and 5 in the Top 50.

And that is why I see why Bourne extended Ike. He is a safe commodity in a year of epic turnover, who might not deliver amazing results but delivers the same thing year in and year out. And now that same thing means NCAAT potential because we elevated our league status. RPI this late into a season isn't mathematical garbage, it means something.

Last year was the highest RPI finish JMU has had in at least over a decade. And barring an epic collapse will finish higher this year. Maybe I just want people to recognize that this is an improving trend, even if JMU expectations are higher given multiple national championships in other sports in the last decade-ish.

For Dukes_Royals w.r.t. whether JMU is a top 25 team. You can have serial bias in your data with a decent number of observations. Given that RPI is heavily reliant on your opponent and the performance of their opponents, there’s more random error then you suspect. JMU plays less than 30 opponents up to this point. You can have a lot of observations even and still experience systemic error since RPI is a very limiting model.

When looking at our resume outside of the RPI, I’d argue that we are inflating JMU’s chances at an at-large. If we do what we expect them to do, they’ll have enough bad losses that the committee will easily place a mediocre SEC and ACC school above us. SBC has a limited number of AL spots and I think many squads like ULL, CCU, GS, Troy, and GS have a leg up on us too.

11 years as HC at VMI, plus 9 at JMU, with a cumulative record of under .500 with zero NCAA appearances is more than a representative sample-size of what Ike brings to the table.

Ike also worked at W&M as an assistant coach, and was employed as an assistant at VMI before being elevated to the HC position.

Which brings me to the $64 question…why is this mediocre coach getting extensions after extensions?

Many have postulated that JMU’s administration doesn’t want to invest more resources into the baseball program, and is satisfied with middling results. Others have raised the possibility that the name “Ikenberry” has some political history with JMU and has provided Ike with a degree of forbearance. Both aspects are likely involved, but I want to add one more consideration.

As frustrating as this additional consideration might be, JMU may be stringing Ike along until he can retire from the Virginia Retirement System.

Hear me out…between VMI and JMU he already has 20 years in the system. He’s got another 3-5 years in the system in his rolls as an assistant at W&M and VMI. All together that potentially gets him to as many as 25 years in the VRS. At 30 years he’d be able to retire with full benefits regardless of his physical age.

Now, has JMU made decisions like this before? They did with Ike’s predecessor.

Not putting too much force behind this consideration, but the longer Ike’s tenure plays out, the more likely JMU is helping Ike pad his retirement.

(04-15-2024 12:51 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  11 years as HC at VMI, plus 9 at JMU, with a cumulative record of under .500 with zero NCAA appearances is more than a representative sample-size of what Ike brings to the table.

Ike also worked at W&M as an assistant coach, and was employed as an assistant at VMI before being elevated to the HC position.

Which brings me to the $64 question…why is this mediocre coach getting extensions after extensions?

Many have postulated that JMU’s administration doesn’t want to invest more resources into the baseball program, and is satisfied with middling results. Others have raised the possibility that the name “Ikenberry” has some political history with JMU and has provided Ike with a degree of forbearance. Both aspects are likely involved, but I want to add one more consideration.

As frustrating as this additional consideration might be, JMU may be stringing Ike along until he can retire from the Virginia Retirement System.

Hear me out…between VMI and JMU he already has 20 years in the system. He’s got another 3-5 years in the system in his rolls as an assistant at W&M and VMI. All together that potentially gets him to as many as 25 years in the VRS. At 30 years he’d be able to retire with full benefits regardless of his physical age.

Now, has JMU made decisions like this before? They did with Ike’s predecessor.

Not putting too much force behind this consideration, but the longer Ike’s tenure plays out, the more likely JMU is helping Ike pad his retirement.

Let's pretend it was number 2. Do you honestly believe that Ike would have been retained if this team had a really bad record? I don't.
Which brings us back to option 1. He has done just enough with what he's being paid to keep his job. It has NOTHING to do with his retirement. JMU has hired its own many times and didn't work out. They didn't keep them around until retirement age... they didn't rehire them. I don't see why Ike would be any different in that regard.
Baseball isn't a revenue sport. I don't think JMU expects much out of baseball. So when the team is around .500 or above, that's enough to keep him. He is a decent guy, doesn't embarrass himself or the program. Fans are still attending.
It's frustrating, but I don't see JMU making a change at this point or in the near future.

The SBC is at the halfway point of the conference schedule. JMU is 7-8 having played 9 of those games on the road. They were 3-6 in those games and should have been 5-4. That’s just average in my opinion.

Three of the next five conference series are at home. Two of the home series are against teams from the very bottom of the league. 5-1 is a reasonable expectation for those. 2-1 against GSU is also. My guess is JMU will go 2-4 in their remaining road series. That’s a 16-14 conference record and probably a 7th place finish.

Four out of conference games remain with two being on the road and two at home so 2-2. That’s a final overall record of 32-22. If that’s the final regular season record, is that a successful season for those of you who follow baseball? It is not for me.

18-12 in the SBC this year with a deep run in the conference tournament would be a good season. 3-1 in the next four out of conference games would be a good finish. One win should be a gimme against a bad VMI team. USC Upstate is 14-11 out of conference with a win and two losses against Clemson. They also lost two of three to Radford and were beaten handily twice by Coastal. A home win against them isn’t asking a lot. The Terps are 5-7 in the Big 10 and in 8th place. VT is 11-7 and tied for 4th in the ACC so beating MD at home is another game JMU should win. VT on the road will be a tough test.

Just want to note that ODU beat #10 UVA last night. Middle of this conference (which JMU and ODU both are this year) still produces relatively strong teams.

Will be interesting to see the # of at-large bids the SBC gets this year. Louisiana and Coastal seem like shoe-ins. And I think 2 of Troy, USM, ODU get in. Georgia Southern, Georgia State and JMU have their work cut out for them but I don't think at-large is fully off the table yet.

(04-15-2024 06:22 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  The SBC is at the halfway point of the conference schedule. JMU is 7-8 having played 9 of those games on the road. They were 3-6 in those games and should have been 5-4. That’s just average in my opinion.

Three of the next five conference series are at home. Two of the home series are against teams from the very bottom of the league. 5-1 is a reasonable expectation for those. 2-1 against GSU is also. My guess is JMU will go 2-4 in their remaining road series. That’s a 16-14 conference record and probably a 7th place finish.

Four out of conference games remain with two being on the road and two at home so 2-2. That’s a final overall record of 32-22. If that’s the final regular season record, is that a successful season for those of you who follow baseball? It is not for me.

18-12 in the SBC this year with a deep run in the conference tournament would be a good season. 3-1 in the next four out of conference games would be a good finish. One win should be a gimme against a bad VMI team. USC Upstate is 14-11 out of conference with a win and two losses against Clemson. They also lost two of three to Radford and were beaten handily twice by Coastal. A home win against them isn’t asking a lot. The Terps are 5-7 in the Big 10 and in 8th place. VT is 11-7 and tied for 4th in the ACC so beating MD at home is another game JMU should win. VT on the road will be a tough test.

My rating scale (based on a 55ish game schedule):

>30 wins is a decent to good year (good especially if that's 10 games over .500)
>35 wins is a good year
>40 wins is a great year
>45 wins is an amazing year
- Single digit losses in the regular season is a season for the ages like our MBB and Football sesasons this past year.

Culkin, Kleinfelter? two absolute gas cans. just forfeit the game and save the gas money.

This probably is the end of any at-large bid. Still one of the better teams in recent history, but not good enough for the NCAAT in the end.

Terrible loss!

Yawn.

THIS is EXACTLY what I've been critical of all these years.
I really hate being right about this program.

"They are who we thought they were."

At large chances??? Pfft.

Key stat:
Away game record- 6-12
And guess what? The Sun Belt tourney isn't in the comfy confines of Harrisonburg. No way in hell this team has a chance. They'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.

(04-18-2024 07:32 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  Yawn.

THIS is EXACTLY what I've been critical of all these years.
I really hate being right about this program.

"They are who we thought they were."

At large chances??? Pfft.

Key stat:
Away game record- 6-12
And guess what? The Sun Belt tourney isn't in the comfy confines of Harrisonburg. No way in hell this team has a chance. They'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.

But but. An at-large bid is in play based on RPI. LOL. At least they showed fight and came back and only lost by 1 run. We get a trophy for that don’t we? Freaking VMI. I still say this team’s destiny and future hopes were dashed in that extra inning SBC game we had won at least 3 times and still lost by putting on the winning run.

(04-18-2024 07:42 AM)jmutoml757 Wrote:  

(04-18-2024 07:32 AM)JMad03 Wrote:  Yawn.

THIS is EXACTLY what I've been critical of all these years.
I really hate being right about this program.

"They are who we thought they were."

At large chances??? Pfft.

Key stat:
Away game record- 6-12
And guess what? The Sun Belt tourney isn't in the comfy confines of Harrisonburg. No way in hell this team has a chance. They'll be lucky to make it out of the first round.

But but. An at-large bid is in play based on RPI. LOL. At least they showed fight and came back and only lost by 1 run. We get a trophy for that don’t we? Freaking VMI. I still say this team’s destiny and future hopes were dashed in that extra inning SBC game we had won at least 3 times and still lost by putting on the winning run.

Goes to show why he’ll never be a *good* coach, just average. This team is the epitome of playing to your opponent, good or bad.

But RPI in the Top 30… Yeah and the committee would take #14 Louisiana who is RPI 52 in a heartbeat before us. RPI is a flawed metric that attempts to normalize desperate schedules and results, if you throw common sense out for that metric as your gold standard, then you should have to fund Ike’s salary.

JMU has an RPI rank of 28th according to the NCAA.

Here are the squads behind us.

#21 Arizona… RPI 31
NC State (ranked for most of the year)… RPI 32
#23 Virginia Tech… RPI 37
#26 Florida (with Jack Caglionne)… RPI 43
LSU (ranked for most of the year)… RPI 49
#14 Louisiana… RPI 52
#28 Miss State… RPI 57
#16 Oregon… RPI 63

Heck 18-18 Xavier has an RPI right behind us because they had the hardest NC. Turns out going 1-6 against the Top 25 and getting slammed by baseball powers is good enough. But would you all think 18-18 Xavier in a weaker BE deserves an AL, probably not.

RPI overrates us and if you expect that the biased committees are gonna break their trend for little old JMU, then you’re naive and I have a lake house in Death Valley to sell you.

D1Baseball’s Field of 64 (4/17)

Before losing to VMI last night, D1 Baseball had us on the first four out. They have the SBC getting three bids (we range between 3-4).

Louisiana is the 2-Seed in #1 College Station (TAMU)
Coastal is the 2-seed in #15 Columbia (USCe)
USM is the 3-seed in #9 Greenville (ECU)

SBC getting the less favorable bounce this year as there are typically 1-2 regional hosts from the conference. We have a chance to cement our way in or lock ourselves out with the last stretch.

Ike’s teams never have that killer instinct and focus and I don’t think they’ll start now after 8 years. Otherwise they probably don’t lose to VMI last night.

12-5 before conference play.
9-10 since the start.

It really comes down to pitching. Ike and staff need to find more good pitchers. Losing games 10-9 is tough. Nine runs should win a game. Giving up two and three run leads in the late innings regularly isn’t going to cut it against good competition.

VMI had a bunch of Seniors in their lineup and they came through yesterday at the plate with I believe four home runs one of which one was a grand slam. JMU pitching gives up too many big innings like that. They have to be able to keep innings to 1 or 2 runs. The grand slam was a game changer.

Our pitchers have the velocity. They struggle with control issues when the pressure gets raised. They hit and walk batters too often.

This team has the hitting to go deep in the tournament most nights. It’s a shame because there are some really good players on this team.

Bottom of the 7th in game one of the weekend series against GaSo and the Dukes are up 8-6

Brian

Final score Dukes win game one by a score of 15-6 over GaSo

Brian