(12-06-2023 09:19 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  What if Oregon, Washington, or Michigan played anyone in the OOC with a pulse?

well like Washington. If you heard 3 years ago even that they'd have @ Michigan St and Boise St at home- you'd say that's a great OOC schedule. Even Tulsa not exactly a cupcake.

What if Florida State had just rested Travis against cupcake North Alabama?

What if OU-UGA hadn't been canceled? The game was scheduled to be in Norman. If OU wins, they're a lock for the NY6. If Georgia wins, that's a quality Top 25 win but probably not enough to stay in the top four.

(12-06-2023 09:32 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  What if Florida State had just rested Travis against cupcake North Alabama?

The playoff committee pays a guy to break his kneecaps in the tunnel during the ACC Championship.

What if: Tulane does beat SMU on Saturday, but they lose their starting QB? Does Tulane get the spot, or does Liberty?

(12-06-2023 09:56 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  What if: Tulane does beat SMU on Saturday, but they lose their starting QB? Does Tulane get the spot, or does Liberty?

Liberty still. The human committee is kinda quirky when it comes to the G5, ranking Tulane ahead of Liberty each week, so who is to say what exactly would go down. But in the computer committee Tulane would finish a spot behind Liberty. With both conferences fighting to be the 8th best conference, Liberty's 0 in the loss column just barely edges out their slightly poorer SOS, compared to Tulane.

(12-06-2023 08:53 AM)andy98 Wrote:  What would the playoff look like if Oregon had beaten Washington?

If you mean the first game, Washington falls to #3. But if Washington loses the Pac CCG...

Washington cannot fall below Ohio State (better record and SOR) while Oregon cannot pass Florida State (worse record and SOR). The question then becomes whether UW/OSU or UO/FSU are placed above the other.

Without changing Oregon/Washington, Florida State was held out of the playoff because neither their SOR or SRS (eye-test) exceeded those of Ohio State. Now that Oregon/Washington has been changed... that still holds, and Washington stays in the playoff based on their superior SOR.

(12-06-2023 09:32 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  What if Florida State had just rested Travis against cupcake North Alabama?

If Florida State waxed UF and UL by 4 scores apiece, they'd have looked better than Ohio State (who did so to fully half their schedule) and gotten to #3, squeezing out Alabama.

Do-able. But even with Travis if they won those games by only 3 combined scores... on they'd have been left on the outside.

(12-06-2023 09:46 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  What if OU-UGA hadn't been canceled? The game was scheduled to be in Norman. If OU wins, they're a lock for the NY6. If Georgia wins, that's a quality Top 25 win but probably not enough to stay in the top four.

Ooh. That is a good one. I'll replace the season opener with this game.

If Georgia had beaten Oklahoma, the Sooners wouldn't tumble too much further (below LSU) in the rankings. But Texas's lone loss would look worse. You'd have a circle of death UGA>OU>UT>Bama>UGA... but Oklahoma would have 3 losses. This would elevate Georgia to #4, Alabama to #3, and sink Texas to #7.

If Oklahoma had beaten Georgia, the playoff would not change. The two 2-loss teams would meet at the #7 and #8 spots. I'd still have Georgia>Oklahoma based on better SOR and SRS (two metrics trumping the lone metric of head-to-head, though I may want to revisit that when they both have the same number of losses).

I am enjoying the work of Mike Lowe, Maryland writer.

He opens an article on how a 12-team playoff would have worked this year with a perceptive overview of what really happened:

Florida State, by virtue of having an injured starting quarterback, gave the selection committee the excuse they needed to leave them out, rather than having to make the uncomfortable choice of leaving Alabama out (ESPN would not be pleased) or the Texas team that handed the Tide their only loss.

I don’t feel like we ever got true transparency from the committee on their discussions and processes throughout the rankings season. Florida State lost starting QB Jordan Travis two weeks before the ACC Championship Game, yet Florida State remained ranked ahead of both Texas and Alabama in the next rankings. Then they lost their backup, Tate Rodemaker, during in the regular season finale against Florida, and still remained ahead of Texas/Alabama. It wasn’t until they had to resort to their third string QB against Louisville that apparently enough was enough….despite the fact that Rodemaker will be able to play come bowl season.

I think the committee was truly just sitting there hoping Florida State would lose and make their life easier. The Seminoles did them no such favors.

https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/colle...-too-late/

(12-06-2023 09:37 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-06-2023 08:53 AM)andy98 Wrote:  What would the playoff look like if Oregon had beaten Washington?

If you mean the first game, Washington falls to #3. But if Washington loses the Pac CCG...

Washington cannot fall below Ohio State (better record and SOR) while Oregon cannot pass Florida State (worse record and SOR). The question then becomes whether UW/OSU or UO/FSU are placed above the other.

Without changing Oregon/Washington, Florida State was held out of the playoff because neither their SOR or SRS (eye-test) exceeded those of Ohio State. Now that Oregon/Washington has been changed... that still holds, and Washington stays in the playoff based on their superior SOR.

The Committee would have no incentive to keep out an undefeated Florida State for a one loss non conference champion Washington. At the very least Oregon would have priority over them as the conference championship should have priority.

The Commitee only cared about one thing this year, the SEC got in. Logically they didn't belong so they needed to come up with excuses to justify putting them in and the only question was who was going to be left out who deserved to get in over them. You can say Texas with one loss also got in over undefeated Florida State but they got in because they beat Alabama. If that doesn't happen, Texas doesn't get in. If Georgia beats Alabama and were undefeated, the Committee would have no reason to rank Texas over Florida State (and if Alabama lost to Georgia, Texas's win would be over a two loss Alabama team).

They would have zero incentive to discriminate against Florida State vs. Washington or Oregon. Had Oregon beat Washington, the four teams would have been Michigan, Florida State, Texas, and Alabama, the Pac 12 would have been shut out, there would be outcry from the Pac 12 but nowhere near as much as there is from FSU now. Oregon can say they are a P5 champ but so were everyone else in the Playoff field. They can say they are a one loss P5 champ but so are Alabama and Texas. Oregon would have no argument they are better than Alabama and Texas like Florida State has now that they didn't lose a game.

Jordan Travis was injured? The only reason anyone on the CFP Committee even cared he was injured was we can't have a Playoff without an SEC team.

(12-15-2023 11:52 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  I am enjoying the work of Mike Lowe, Maryland writer.

He opens an article on how a 12-team playoff would have worked this year with a perceptive overview of what really happened:

Florida State, by virtue of having an injured starting quarterback, gave the selection committee the excuse they needed to leave them out, rather than having to make the uncomfortable choice of leaving Alabama out (ESPN would not be pleased) or the Texas team that handed the Tide their only loss.

I don’t feel like we ever got true transparency from the committee on their discussions and processes throughout the rankings season. Florida State lost starting QB Jordan Travis two weeks before the ACC Championship Game, yet Florida State remained ranked ahead of both Texas and Alabama in the next rankings. Then they lost their backup, Tate Rodemaker, during in the regular season finale against Florida, and still remained ahead of Texas/Alabama. It wasn’t until they had to resort to their third string QB against Louisville that apparently enough was enough….despite the fact that Rodemaker will be able to play come bowl season.

I think the committee was truly just sitting there hoping Florida State would lose and make their life easier. The Seminoles did them no such favors.

https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/colle...-too-late/

Well said. The committee should have revealed their cards a week or two earlier. Sure, if FSU isn’t a Top 4 team, leave them out. But don’t toy with them by artificially inflating them to #4 because that is where the AP has them. Grow a pair and rank them where you think they should be ranked. Don’t cross your fingers hoping Florida or Louisville does the job for you.

(12-16-2023 01:18 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(12-15-2023 11:52 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  I am enjoying the work of Mike Lowe, Maryland writer.

He opens an article on how a 12-team playoff would have worked this year with a perceptive overview of what really happened:

Florida State, by virtue of having an injured starting quarterback, gave the selection committee the excuse they needed to leave them out, rather than having to make the uncomfortable choice of leaving Alabama out (ESPN would not be pleased) or the Texas team that handed the Tide their only loss.

I don’t feel like we ever got true transparency from the committee on their discussions and processes throughout the rankings season. Florida State lost starting QB Jordan Travis two weeks before the ACC Championship Game, yet Florida State remained ranked ahead of both Texas and Alabama in the next rankings. Then they lost their backup, Tate Rodemaker, during in the regular season finale against Florida, and still remained ahead of Texas/Alabama. It wasn’t until they had to resort to their third string QB against Louisville that apparently enough was enough….despite the fact that Rodemaker will be able to play come bowl season.

I think the committee was truly just sitting there hoping Florida State would lose and make their life easier. The Seminoles did them no such favors.

https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/colle...-too-late/

Well said. The committee should have revealed their cards a week or two earlier. Sure, if FSU isn’t a Top 4 team, leave them out. But don’t toy with them by artificially inflating them to #4 because that is where the AP has them. Grow a pair and rank them where you think they should be ranked. Don’t cross your fingers hoping Florida or Louisville does the job for you.

And if FSU was dropped after the North Alabama game, you don't think they wouldn't have tried to send a message vs. Florida and Louisville? Texas certainly had a lot to prove vs. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Back in 2014, Ohio State knew they had to get in the Playoff and won 59-0. The injury was everything after Alabama beat Georgia but not before? As the Church Lady would say, "How convenient..."