All,

I've put a bunch of thought into this. How is it that the AAC's conference championship game is the defacto play-in game for the G5's NY6 spot? The AAC, the 2nd lowest rated FBS conference, is a shell of what it was and the committee claimed, for all of these years, to take strength of schedule into account.

The justification for a two-loss Memphis over one-loss App State in 2019 was "strength of schedule". Okay, I'll buy it, and would've bought it, if not for the fact that the Penn State team Memphis was obliterated by had been taken to OT the year prior by App, in a game App held the lead in until a busted special teams decision with around 50 seconds left. App's two P5 wins that year included beating USC, who had beat Georgia and UNC, who was a two point conversion from taking down a Trevor Lawrence led Clemson the following week.

It was what it was.

Fast forward to 2023 where the Sun Belt is undoubtedly the best G5 football conference. We have 12 of 14 teams over at .500 or higher with multiple P5 wins, the best FBS v. FBS record in the G5, etc., et. al., so forth and so on. It isn't debatable.

Yet the argument is that Tulane is the front runner with one loss over a two loss Troy team? Why? In 2019 I believe the Sun Belt was the 8th ranked FBS conference, versus the AAC in 2023 being the 9th. App State was a 1-loss conference champion in a higher rated conference than Tulane is now. Memphis made it with two losses in 2019 while Troy isn't even mentioned. Why?

Don't even get me started on why UNLV and Toledo aren't considered.

So Tulane must have some major victory this season right? Multiple AP Top 25 wins? Multiple Quad 1 victories? They must play in the best G5 conference that is closer to the lowest P5 than to other G5's, right?

WRONG

AAC

- Tulane (11-1) Rated 34th - Best Win versus #55 Memphis, all other wins are against teams rated from 69 to 119. Average Massey Rating win is 98. Lost to # 12 Ole Miss by 17.


- SMU (10-2) Rated 30th - Best win versus #55 Memphis, all other wins are against teams rated 101 - 128. Average Massey Rating win is 107. Lost to #10 Oklahoma and #37 TCU by an average score of 17 points.

Sun Belt

- App State (8-4) Rated 64th - Best win versus #31 JMU, all other wins rated from 89-130. Average Massey Rating wins is 96. Losses to # 94, 83, 67, and 35 by an average margin of 4.8 points, all on final drives.

- Troy (10-2) Rated 47th - Best win versus # 88 USA, all other wins rated from 90 - 130. Average Massey Rating wins is 101. Losses to #31 JMU and #15 Kansas State by 2 and 29 points, respectively.

C-USA

- Liberty (12-0) Rated 38th - Best win versus #85 NMSU, range of wins from 90 - 129. Average Massey Rating win ranking is 111. Lowest Strength of Schedule ranking in FBS. Undefeated, softest schedule.

MAC

- Toledo (11-1) Rated 52nd - Best win versus # 71 SJSU, range of wins from 73 - 131. Average Massey Rating win ranking is 107. Strength of Schedule is 130th. Loss to #61 Illinois by 2 points.

Mountain West

- UNLV (9-3) Rated 69th - Best win versus #67 Wyoming, range of wins from 72-121. Average Massey Rating of wins is 103. Losses to #71, 65, and 1. Losses to Fresno and SJSU by about 7 points on average. Only lost by 28 to Michigan.

- Boise State (7-5) Rated 58th - Best win versus #71 SJSU, range of wins from 72-120. Average Massey Rating of wins is 105. Losses to # 65, 104, 55, 45, 6. Losses to Fresno, Colorado State, Memphis, and UCF were by an average of 3.25 points and a max of 7 points

All of this is to say that App State has the best G5 win, the highest average ranking in other wins, and should be sent to the NY6.

Just kidding.

This shouldn't be a runaway of Tulane versus everyone else. They play in the weakest conference and have two wins against Massey Top 100 teams. SMU has one win against a Massey Top 100 team. App and Troy have multiple wins over Top 100 teams. Toledo's only loss came to a Big 10 school by 2 points.

Despite UNLV's 3 losses, they had a much harder schedule than either AAC program, as did everyone else not named Liberty.

Point is, it's a sham. That's all.

Good day.

What bugs me is that Tulane repeatedly puts up half-***ed efforts against UNT, UAB, ECU, and Tulsa and the CFP committee doesn't make them pay for it. How many Sun Belt games do you think Tulane would win playing like they did against those teams?

Liberty wouldn't be undefeated in either Sun Belt division, either.

It's absolutely an advantage to have a weak schedule when going for the NY6.

(12-01-2023 04:18 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  What bugs me is that Tulane repeatedly puts up half-***ed efforts against UNT, UAB, ECU, and Tulsa and the CFP committee doesn't make them pay for it. How many Sun Belt games do you think Tulane would win playing like they did against those teams?

Liberty wouldn't be undefeated in either Sun Belt division, either.

It's absolutely an advantage to have a weak schedule when going for the NY6.

Which is ironic because the AAC was rewarded for "better losses" in previous years. Now they are rewarded for worse wins.

Someone needs to call them out. I can imagine that if the situations were reversed, Aresco would be out on the mountain top, screaming, and it would be everywhere. People may not like that tact but at this point in time, hypocrisy left unchecked is bound to spread.

To be fair, Tulane was up by 7 at the half and tied at the start of the 4th before they collapsed against Ole Miss. A strong team with a weak schedule is still a strong team. Personally, I think the CFP has made Tulane pay. I mean, they're a 1 one loss team at near bottom of the top 25, but ahead of Liberty with an even weaker schedule. I'd bet Ole Miss vs Liberty would've been a bit different..

(12-01-2023 04:40 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(12-01-2023 04:18 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  What bugs me is that Tulane repeatedly puts up half-***ed efforts against UNT, UAB, ECU, and Tulsa and the CFP committee doesn't make them pay for it. How many Sun Belt games do you think Tulane would win playing like they did against those teams?

Liberty wouldn't be undefeated in either Sun Belt division, either.

It's absolutely an advantage to have a weak schedule when going for the NY6.

Which is ironic because the AAC was rewarded for "better losses" in previous years. Now they are rewarded for worse wins.

Someone needs to call them out. I can imagine that if the situations were reversed, Aresco would be out on the mountain top, screaming, and it would be everywhere. People may not like that tact but at this point in time, hypocrisy left unchecked is bound to spread.

Here's a thought experiment.

Coastal arguably had 2 wins better than any Cinci had in 2020 (Louisiana and BYU) and Cinci got picked over them.

Try to justify that and choosing Tulane and Liberty over a hypothetical Troy SBC champion. Want to say the AAC was just better in 2020, fine. But Coastal was undefeated AND had better wins. The same standard needs to be applied.

Troy shouldn't have gotten crushed by KState and App should have beaten Wyoming and not needed a last second field goal to beat the worst team in FBS. Those are difference makers to the voters. The UNC loss by APP is what they want to see if you gotta have one.

You know they aren't going to credit you with a start up win over JMU, despite their ranking. SBC gets punished for them being a good team and they're punishing Troy for losing to a startup even though ranked and only a 2 point differential.

But your post would have been better if you didn't try to squeeze 4 loss App into the conversation. Just no. Can't have G5 losses and get there. That's the message they're sending. We'll see what happens if Tulane loses.

(12-01-2023 05:27 PM)MUther Wrote:  Troy shouldn't have gotten crushed by KState and App should have beaten Wyoming and not needed a last second field goal to beat the worst team in FBS. Those are difference makers to the voters. The UNC loss by APP is what they want to see if you gotta have one.

You know they aren't going to credit you with a start up win over JMU, despite their ranking. SBC gets punished for them being a good team and they're punishing Troy for losing to a startup even though ranked and only a 2 point differential.

But your post would have been better if you didn't try to squeeze 4 loss App into the conversation. Just no. Can't have G5 losses and get there. That's the message they're sending. We'll see what happens if Tulane loses.

I wasn't SQUEEZING App into anything. It was a comparison of conference championship games, minus Miami (OH) and NMSU because those are obviously not going to happen. If you didn't notice, I also put Boise state in there.

Tulane was demolished by Ole Miss. SMU was demolished by a .500 TCU team and Oklahoma.

So the losses are relevant, regardless of number.

I hate to say it but even if App had only one loss, whether it was any of the losses, Tulane would still be ranked ahead because they are in the AAC which is a shell of itself.

The point is to use the same logic. Troy is 10-2 with better wins, on average, including Tulane's best win of Memphis, than Tulane and SMU. They didn't beat anyone worth anything out of conference which is not atypical for how the committee has done things in the past.

I don't expect App would get the NY6 bid but using previous logic, Troy should get in at 11-2.