Watch us just end up being matched up with Jacksonville State, a fellow transitioning team hoping for bowl eligibility. It'd be too ironic. Just an FCS playoff game...

Wasn't sure which of 6 threads to put this on, and don't want to start another.

(11-20-2023 11:25 AM)jmudukes001 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 10:41 AM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 09:29 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Thanks DDD - I was just about to ask someone to do this.

That 11 are at least 6 point underdogs looks very favorable for us.

Yes - this is great for us. Even 4 of the favorites, are only so by 3 or less points. (Three of those teams are basically favorites just because of the home-field advantage bump.)

Sooner the better would be great for us… or news that this list does not even matter as we will be eligible for the CCG.

I think we are going to need about 4 of the favorites on that list to lose as there are too many 50/50 games on that first list. South Carolina is at home and playing a lot better and that is a 50/50 game against Clemson to me. Florida and Florida State too without Jordan Travis.

Need to start tomorrow night with Buffalo winning and then Iowa beating Nebraska on Friday at noon.

If all of the 8+ point underdogs go our way that's 8 of the 10 needed.

Then you have 3 more bubble teams that are 6+ point favorites (S. Carolina and Florida are admittedly noteworthy). You have 6 more that are +/- a FG.

So said another way, we need the 8 locks getting 8+ points to come through. Then we only need 2 of 9 games, with bubble teams ranging from +7 to -3, to go our way.

And if you really want to wear purple tinted glasses, there are 3 more favorites that would be a FG or less on a neutral field. Rice (2-3 against FBS at home), USF (2-2), and Illinois (3-3) aren't really bringing a home field advantage from a fan perspective and none of the away team travel is bad in those games.

(11-20-2023 11:19 AM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 10:56 AM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 10:48 AM)bcp_jmu Wrote:  It seems...if enough teams have 7 losses, BEFORE 6PM EST (the end of SBC play to determine East champ)...that IF we win, we might have a brief window where we are:
- bowl eligible
- should be awarded east and CCG

Bylaws might split hairs on the #82 being eligible enough....but its damn fun to consider it

Wishful thinking. No waiver means no CCG. That’s the official position, no speculation required.

What is TBD is the order which the teams are picked to bowl.

But is it? I could've sworn Gill and the SBC have given different responses over the past few months from we're not eligible, to OK it's my decision, to no it's the SBC schools to vote (all 3 because we'd take the place of an eligible team looking for an NY6 bid), to now it's only because we're not bowl eligible and not up to the SBC if we play in their title game? The NCAA doesn't dictate who plays for the conference title, this is strictly on the SBC to decide. The lawsuit is against the NCAA, they can respond that the SBC title game has nothing to do with them, that the SBC can and should act on their own, the lawsuit is about us being bowl eligible not conference championship game eligible. I believe it is 100% up to Gill and the schools to allow us into the SBC title game regardless of what the NCAA decides to do regarding the AGs filing.

I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So, combine Bourne's statement with Cig's positive outlook today on CCG, and to me that telegraphs they think we are getting a W on the eligibility side.

this is insanity...love it, but it's insane

It’s certainly entertaining. That’s for damn sure.

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

(11-20-2023 06:24 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

A few of us have been saying that for a long time. We will not be in the last bowl.

If we win this week and finish 11-1 and can't play in CCG we will get a decent bowl against a team like Toledo, SMU, Liberty, etc.

(11-20-2023 06:24 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

Right. AAC won't be coming anywhere close to filling all of their slots with an outside shot they'll only fill 4!

They have some juicy tie ins as well.

JFC we live in a world where a bowl game against Liberty is a “good” bowl game. Is this what we left FCS for?

JMU Bowl Bingo Card (Idea stolen from @jmuemry and @jmusportsnews)

(11-20-2023 06:24 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

I read this to mean the opposite. We’re filling in wherever there is room after the other teams are picked. I suppose this could be a good thing if AAC doesn’t fill their slots.

(11-20-2023 06:55 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 06:24 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

I read this to mean the opposite. We’re filling in wherever there is room after the other teams are picked. I suppose this could be a good thing if AAC doesn’t fill their slots.

Or ACC, etc. The bowl tie-ins obviously happen first, but there's a whole lot of possibilities.

I still believe it's about to become irrelevant this week.

(11-20-2023 06:55 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 06:24 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

I read this to mean the opposite. We’re filling in wherever there is room after the other teams are picked. I suppose this could be a good thing if AAC doesn’t fill their slots.

Once again AAC will not fill its spots and bowl will have picks. ESON controls a number of bowls and they will look to put us in a good spot. They were impressed with us before this weekend what do they think now?

(11-20-2023 06:49 PM)marvin210 Wrote:  JMU Bowl Bingo Card (Idea stolen from @jmuemry and @jmusportsnews)

6 of one, half dozen of the other but flipping this would be better. IMHO, the pleasure of x'ing through the losers is higher (e.g., I'd rather X ODU or VT than checkmark GaSt or UVA). If I find 20 minutes tomorrow, I might do it.

(11-20-2023 06:58 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 06:55 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 06:24 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:34 PM)CharlestonDuke Wrote:  I agree there has been back and forth, but when evaluating the weight of the sources, I consider Jeff Bourne to be close to infallible.

So I think this really puts to bed the notion that our "tier 4" bowl eligibility status definitely means we're the last pick for the last bowls.

I read this to mean the opposite. We’re filling in wherever there is room after the other teams are picked. I suppose this could be a good thing if AAC doesn’t fill their slots.

Or ACC, etc. The bowl tie-ins obviously happen first, but there's a whole lot of possibilities.

I still believe it's about to become irrelevant this week.

The ACC can fill every bowl except the Military with VT and Syracuse still options to fill their slots.

The SEC has one opening (Liberty?) with Florida, South Carolina and Miss. State still options.

The Big Ten has one opening (Quick Lane vs MAC) with Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota still options.

The Big 12 has one opening (secondary agreement with First Responder) with UCF, BYU, and TCU options.

The PAC-12 has one opening (Independence) with Cal and Washington St still options.

All of the G5 will fill their contractual agreements to bowls but that's not saying much. Most of these teams will get placed in the "ESPN" bowls.

Where the G5's (and JMU with or without the waiver) can play a P5 school is when more of those teams that are still options above get their 6th win and end up placed in an ESPN bowl too. For example, Illinois may win and take the Quick Lane and Minnesota could win and end up in the Camellia, Boca Raton, or Cure bowl.

I don't want to play Liberty in a bowl game not because I think we are too good for them. But because we can schedule them easily in the regular season whenever we want, IMO. I want to play someone we normally have no chance to play in a bowl game. The actual game doesn't matter (Cure, Boca, Camellia, Myrtle, etc...) beyond how easy it is to travel to in person.

(11-20-2023 07:25 PM)JMUDuke25 Wrote:  The ACC can fill every bowl except the Military with VT and Syracuse still options to fill their slots.

Wake and Syracuse equally bad, flip a coin there.
UVA is better than their record and could take VT.

I'd find it kind of fun to take "VT's spot" in the military bowl.

(11-20-2023 06:49 PM)marvin210 Wrote:  JMU Bowl Bingo Card (Idea stolen from @jmuemry and @jmusportsnews)

JMU bowl checklist

Tweaked the times a bit and added the latest betting lines.

(11-20-2023 07:51 PM)94computerguy Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 06:49 PM)marvin210 Wrote:  JMU Bowl Bingo Card (Idea stolen from @jmuemry and @jmusportsnews)

JMU bowl checklist

Tweaked the times a bit and added the latest betting lines.

Seems fitting that this reminds of the ‘old’ times of printing out the bowl schedule and doing the predictions in pen