The regular season is nearly over. Here are some average attendance figures so far of schools changing conferences for next year.
Big 12
Losing and SEC Gaining
Texas 101,459
OU 83,756

Gaining
U of A 46,624
CU 53,180
ASU 48,767
Utah 52,650

ACC
Gaining
Cal 38,684
Stan 29,732
SMU 22,841

Big
Gaining
USC 65,042
Wash 68,398
Oregon 55,213
UCLA 49,053

SEC is adding two more huge attendance draws.
BIG adding 4 solid to above average schools.
Big 12 losing it's two biggest draws but gaining 4 solid schools
ACC new schools not helping ACC averages.

(11-14-2023 12:17 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  The regular season is nearly over. Here are some average attendance figures so far of schools changing conferences for next year.
Big 12
Losing and SEC Gaining
Texas 101,459
OU 83,756

Gaining
U of A 46,624
CU 53,180
ASU 48,767
Utah 42,650

ACC
Gaining
Cal 38,684
Stan 29,732
SMU 22,841

Big
Gaining
USC 65,042
Wash 68,398
Oregon 55,213
UCLA 49,053

SEC is adding two more huge attendance draws.
BIG adding 4 solid to above average schools.
Big 12 losing it's two biggest draws but gaining 4 solid schools
ACC new schools not helping ACC averages.

Interesting that OUT and their 4 replacements have about the same average attendance, as the replacements allowed the Big 12 to continue with and extend their old media rights agreement.

(11-14-2023 12:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-14-2023 12:17 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  The regular season is nearly over. Here are some average attendance figures so far of schools changing conferences for next year.
Big 12
Losing and SEC Gaining
Texas 101,459
OU 83,756

Gaining
U of A 46,624
CU 53,180
ASU 48,767
Utah 42,650

ACC
Gaining
Cal 38,684
Stan 29,732
SMU 22,841

Big
Gaining
USC 65,042
Wash 68,398
Oregon 55,213
UCLA 49,053

SEC is adding two more huge attendance draws.
BIG adding 4 solid to above average schools.
Big 12 losing it's two biggest draws but gaining 4 solid schools
ACC new schools not helping ACC averages.

Interesting that OUT and their 4 replacements have about the same average attendance, as the replacements allowed the Big 12 to continue with and extend their old media rights agreement.

The old media rights deal was extended with UCF/Cincy/Houston/BYU in the fold. The 4C schools weren't really part of the discussion beyond using Pro Rata in the already signed contract to bring them in.

The key is the next Big 12 contract. If they stay pat or get more money than they are solid and/or the need for content will outweigh any negatives of showing no-brand conference. If it goes down, then theres truly only a P2.

(11-14-2023 01:09 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  The key is the next Big 12 contract. If they stay pat or get more money than they are solid and/or the need for content will outweigh any negatives of showing no-brand conference. If it goes down, then theres truly only a P2.

The Big 12 has done just fine in recent years with "no-Brands" like Baylor, OSU, Ks St and TCU in the mix, at least in the only metric that TV partners care about.

So do you have the attendance numbers for Wash St and Ore St this year?

(11-14-2023 01:25 PM)goofus Wrote:  So do you have the attendance numbers for Wash St and Ore St this year?

That's easy to look up:

Wash St: 29k
OSU: 36k

And OSU didn't just mortgage their future until 2113 (that's not a typo) on a new stadium like Cal did. As bad as A&M's payoff to Jimbo was, that was nothing compared to Cal's (re)building of a $500m albatross along an earthquake fault line. Yes, newborns today will mostly all have died of old age by the time Cal pays that thing off.

Cal won't start paying down the principal until 2032, when its yearly payments rise to $26 million, then $37 million, before tapering off in 2051. After a brief respite, Cal will owe a lump sum of $82 million in 2053 alone. Then it will have six decades to pay off the final 17 percent, or $75 million.

I'm still hoping that Or St wins out and ends up in the CFP, it would be a fitting end to the wildest 18 months in the Pac's history. 3 straight top 10 wins and a killer SOS and SOV, combined with a Pac 12 Conference Title that suddenly carries a lot of weight, would certainly get them into the conversation with various 1 loss teams. Probably not ahead of a 1 loss Texas, Alabama or Georgia, but they might be able to surpass any other 1 loss teams out there (I'm looking at you tOSU, FSU and Michigan).

I edited Utah. They are 52,650 not 42,650.

Who cares about attendance? I mean as an ECU fan I personally care, but literally zero decision makers care at all about it.

(11-14-2023 03:37 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Who cares about attendance? I mean as an ECU fan I personally care, but literally zero decision makers care at all about it.

Well, it does seem to be correlated with "power" and "brand".

For example, if we look at 2022 PAC attendance, the #1 school is USC, who of course was the first school to get an invite to the B1G. The last four schools in football attendance were (9) Cal, (10) Stanford, (11) Oregon State and (12) Wazzoo. Cal and Stanford were the last two PAC schools to get a life-raft to a better conference, and Wazzoo and OS are of course the two pathetic left-behinds.

The correlation isn't perfect - UCLA was #8 in attendance, and got a B1G bid along with USC, and before the four corners schools got bids to the lesser nB12. But USC may well have leaned on the B1G to take them.

It may be coincidental, but there does seem to be a strong correlation between them. The SEC and B1G dominate attendance, and they are the 900 pound gorillas.

(11-14-2023 03:37 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Who cares about attendance? I mean as an ECU fan I personally care, but literally zero decision makers care at all about it.

Well that's good news for us.

Cal and Stan are at a low, assuming they get better with an easier schedule in the ACC that attendance will likeky see a boost. SMU will also see a boost at least in the short run.

(11-14-2023 04:01 PM)Garrettabc Wrote:  Cal and Stan are at a low, assuming they get better with an easier schedule in the ACC that attendance will likeky see a boost. SMU will also see a boost at least in the short run.

This year aside, the Pac and ACC seem to have been in a pillow fight over the 4/5 slot for much of the past decade (FSU and Clemson aside ofc). But Calford will be traveling much further for road games in the future, and they'll have much less money to spend, or at best a mortgaged future with similar money to spend after taking out significant loans from the Academic side. And Stanford in particular is doing so poorly due to their refusal to accept most transfer students and their refusal to use NIL the way that the other 132 FBS schools do.

As far as attendance figures mentioned above, I think that quo hit the nail on the head. Attendance by itself means nothing, and some schools with low-ish attendance are able to post strong ratings some of the time, but over the long run, game day attendance and TV ratings track pretty well.