I wondered what happened to the talks about Clark Atlanta and Tuskegee moving up to join the SWAC? Tennessee State is talking about going to FBS. Lemoyne Owen is too small and don't have the money to move up to join the SWAC from the state of Tennessee.

UIndy, Grand Valley State, Mercyhurst and Central Oklahoma are the ones to watched out now.

(11-14-2023 08:05 AM)ElTeeFig Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 02:17 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  November is going to be a big month in realignment: I can feel it.

First up is the NEC. Down to 7 members (and just 5 full Division 1 members), the league needs to add at least one full time Division 1 member. That is where Chicago State comes in. Although there has been some talk about a provisional membership for the Cougars, I believe they have the leverage and will secure a full membership. The NEC is not done yet though. They decide they want some stability so they add two Division 2 members as well: New Haven and Bentley. This gets the league back to 10 members (6 full and 4 transitional).

Around the same time, the Big 12 will officially add Gonzaga. Yormark has been keen on the Zags. This gets the league to 17 Olympic sports members.

Toward the end of the month, I believe the situation out west will also play itself out. It may take some time for all of the legal wrangling to finish, but ultimately I believe that OSU and WSU will invite all 12 MW members to the Pac-12. CBS and FOX will ultimately shift the TV deal from the MW to Pac-12. This scenario avoids the MW schools paying an exit fee and allows OSU and WSU to keep the Pac-12 name and money as well.

As a result of Gonzaga departing the league, the WCC is now down to 8 members. Though St. Mary's would like to only expand by one member to avoid watering down the league, they do not have the political clout Gonzaga had in the league, and the league ultimately invites Seattle and Cal Baptist to get back to 10 members. (Grand Canyon is passed over due to their recent student loan scandal.)

Down to 9 members, the WAC would like to at least add one, and they find that school in Oral Roberts. With the league's geography suddenly becoming more favorable and league's standard of play in basketball higher than that of the Summit, the league is able to poach Oral Roberts to get to 10 members.

The Summit League at this point is down to 8 members. Though they have been trying to avoid doing this, the league ultimately adds Augustana to become the 9th member.

Now let's fast forward to March. Talk has been brewing about this move, and I believe it ultimately gets done: CUSA invites UMass and Delaware to get to 12 members. This ends the stream of FCS to FBS transitions for the next few years and leaves FBS football with just two independents: Notre Dame and UConn.

The Atlantic 10 responds to this move by adding the College of Charleston. This gets the A-10 back to 15 members.

At this point, the CAA is sitting at 12 Olympic members, and CAAF is sitting at 15 football members. The CAA comes up with a compromise proposal and invites both Fairfield and High Point to get to 14 Olympic members.

The CAAF conferences then splits into two: Villanova, Richmond, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Bryant leave to form a new Atlantic 10 football league.

The remaining schools (Albany, Campbell, Elon, Hampton, Monmouth, NC A&T, Towson, Stony Brook, and William & Mary) remain in the CAAF.

The MAAC decides to stay at 12 following the departure of Fairfield.

This leaves us with the Big South. The league is down to 8 members following the departure of High Point. Because the league is more basketball focused than the ASUN, the Big South is able to poach Queens to get back to 9 members.

The ASUN is down to 11 members. Though that is a stable number, the league decides to add Valdosta State to add an additional football member in case the United Athletic Conference football league has issues in the future.

These moves result in 367 Division 1 schools (355 full, 12 transitional), 31 Division 1 conferences, 0 basketball independents, 2 FBS football independents, 9 FBS football conferences, 135 FBS schools, 132 FCS schools, 0 FCS independents, and 14 FCS conferences.

how accurate has any of this guys predictions been?

These threads tend to be mostly reasonable but also mostly for fun. He does a good job responding to the atmosphere though and adjusting a "more likely" scenario in future iterations.

It's really just to get some decent discussion going.

I'll throw out a few moves that make sense to me, but are just under the radar if discussed at all...

James Madison to the American
The hypothetical scenario for this is very simple. James Madison goes (12-0) and finishes ranked #15 or better in the final AP poll of the regular season. They ask the Sun Belt to play in the Sun Belt Championship to help their case for the NY6/bowl eligibility and the Sun Belt not only says no, but pisses them off in the process. Cue the American application/invite.

Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky to the MAC
It was reported not too long ago that the MAC offered WKU and Middle Tennessee spots in their conference. Perhaps next time (and soon), the MAC either gets or doesn't get to include UMass and/or Delaware, and instead of looking weak in losing out to the C*US/American/Sun Belt for not getting them, the MAC poaches from the C*USA and sells them on the idea of helping out a travel partner and future in-state rival in EKU.

Gonzaga as Division 1 Independent
I don't know how this would work, but I see the success of this move as somewhere between BYU Indy football (low end of spectrum) and Notre Dame Indy football (high end of spectrum). ESPN/FOX would salivate over getting to make their schedule, that much is certain. They could play most of the Big XII and/or Big East for example.

Delaware to Sun Belt to Replace James Madison (to American)
The first part of this scenario has been mentioned and I think it would be a power move of sorts because the Sun Belt would be flexing on the MAC if they did it.

(11-14-2023 10:43 AM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  I'll throw out a few moves that make sense to me, but are just under the radar if discussed at all...

James Madison to the American
The hypothetical scenario for this is very simple. James Madison goes (12-0) and finishes ranked #15 or better in the final AP poll of the regular season. They ask the Sun Belt to play in the Sun Belt Championship to help their case for the NY6/bowl eligibility and the Sun Belt not only says no, but pisses them off in the process. Cue the American application/invite.

Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky to the MAC
It was reported not too long ago that the MAC offered WKU and Middle Tennessee spots in their conference. Perhaps next time (and soon), the MAC either gets or doesn't get to include UMass and/or Delaware, and instead of looking weak in losing out to the C*US/American/Sun Belt for not getting them, the MAC poaches from the C*USA and sells them on the idea of helping out a travel partner and future in-state rival in EKU.

Gonzaga as Division 1 Independent
I don't know how this would work, but I see the success of this move as somewhere between BYU Indy football (low end of spectrum) and Notre Dame Indy football (high end) of spectrum). ESPN/FOX would salivate over getting to make their schedule, that much is certain. They could play most of the Big XII and/or Big East for example.

Delaware to Sun Belt to Replace James Madison (to American)
The first part of this scenario has been mentioned and I think it would be a power move of sorts because the Sun Belt would be flexing on the MAC if they did it.

I see you are really committed to this bit. How about Kansas to the B1G to replace Michigan St. I think they would be a better fit in the MAC and it would be a flex on the AAC for landing such a school.

Quote:Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky to the MAC
It was reported not too long ago that the MAC offered WKU and Middle Tennessee spots in their conference. Perhaps next time (and soon), the MAC either gets or doesn't get to include UMass and/or Delaware, and instead of looking weak in losing out to the C*US/American/Sun Belt for not getting them, the MAC poaches from the C*USA and sells them on the idea of helping out a travel partner and future in-state rival in EKU.

This is an absolute dream scenario for us, but I'd bet my salary for five years running it doesn't happen.

(11-14-2023 10:43 AM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  I'll throw out a few moves that make sense to me, but are just under the radar if discussed at all...

James Madison to the American
The hypothetical scenario for this is very simple. James Madison goes (12-0) and finishes ranked #15 or better in the final AP poll of the regular season. They ask the Sun Belt to play in the Sun Belt Championship to help their case for the NY6/bowl eligibility and the Sun Belt not only says no, but pisses them off in the process. Cue the American application/invite.

Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky to the MAC
It was reported not too long ago that the MAC offered WKU and Middle Tennessee spots in their conference. Perhaps next time (and soon), the MAC either gets or doesn't get to include UMass and/or Delaware, and instead of looking weak in losing out to the C*US/American/Sun Belt for not getting them, the MAC poaches from the C*USA and sells them on the idea of helping out a travel partner and future in-state rival in EKU.

Gonzaga as Division 1 Independent
I don't know how this would work, but I see the success of this move as somewhere between BYU Indy football (low end of spectrum) and Notre Dame Indy football (high end) of spectrum). ESPN/FOX would salivate over getting to make their schedule, that much is certain. They could play most of the Big XII and/or Big East for example.

Delaware to Sun Belt to Replace James Madison (to American)
The first part of this scenario has been mentioned and I think it would be a power move of sorts because the Sun Belt would be flexing on the MAC if they did it.

Gonzaga path to success and program elevation is in the reconstituted PAC/MWC. They already have a partial member in Hawaii. Adding the Zags helps elevate their conference hoops profile without adding outside the footprint.

The conference will have a strong PNW lean that makes Gonzaga's geography a decent fit compared to the Big 12. (Washington State, Oregon State, Boise State).

(11-14-2023 10:43 AM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  I'll throw out a few moves that make sense to me, but are just under the radar if discussed at all...

James Madison to the American
The hypothetical scenario for this is very simple. James Madison goes (12-0) and finishes ranked #15 or better in the final AP poll of the regular season. They ask the Sun Belt to play in the Sun Belt Championship to help their case for the NY6/bowl eligibility and the Sun Belt not only says no, but pisses them off in the process. Cue the American application/invite.

Pretty sure I saw a story that the Sun Belt also appealed to the NCAA to let JMU be eligible for the championship game and a bowl game. There's no reason for JMU to be mad at the SBC.

(11-14-2023 10:43 AM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky to the MAC
It was reported not too long ago that the MAC offered WKU and Middle Tennessee spots in their conference. Perhaps next time (and soon), the MAC either gets or doesn't get to include UMass and/or Delaware, and instead of looking weak in losing out to the C*US/American/Sun Belt for not getting them, the MAC poaches from the C*USA and sells them on the idea of helping out a travel partner and future in-state rival in EKU.

WKU signed a GOR with Conference USA. They also believe they're too good to be in a conference with Eastern Kentucky.

(11-12-2023 02:17 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  At this point, the CAA is sitting at 12 Olympic members, and CAAF is sitting at 15 football members. The CAA comes up with a compromise proposal and invites both Fairfield and High Point to get to 14 Olympic members.

The CAAF conferences then splits into two: Villanova, Richmond, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Bryant leave to form a new Atlantic 10 football league.

The remaining schools (Albany, Campbell, Elon, Hampton, Monmouth, NC A&T, Towson, Stony Brook, and William & Mary) remain in the CAAF.

Can't see 3 America East schools going to one football conference and 1 going to another. I think they stick together, unless (as others have suggested) Albany goes to the CAA in all sports.

I remain slightly skeptical of the Charleston-to-A-10 rumors. Not out of the realm of possibility, but not assured.

(11-12-2023 02:17 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  It may take some time for all of the legal wrangling to finish, but ultimately I believe that OSU and WSU will invite all 12 MW members to the Pac-12. CBS and FOX will ultimately shift the TV deal from the MW to Pac-12. This scenario avoids the MW schools paying an exit fee and allows OSU and WSU to keep the Pac-12 name and money as well.

In many ways, that would be a rational/logical outcome. But still painful for OSU/WSU, who are joining UConn, Temple, and South Florida as the only former BCS/P5 members to be left out of the “P4” (or whatever it’s going to be called).

Quote:The Atlantic 10 responds to [loss of UMass] by adding the College of Charleston. This gets the A-10 back to 15 members.

What’s so special about 15?

(11-14-2023 08:05 AM)ElTeeFig Wrote:  

(11-12-2023 02:17 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  November is going to be a big month in realignment: I can feel it.

First up is the NEC. Down to 7 members (and just 5 full Division 1 members), the league needs to add at least one full time Division 1 member. That is where Chicago State comes in. Although there has been some talk about a provisional membership for the Cougars, I believe they have the leverage and will secure a full membership. The NEC is not done yet though. They decide they want some stability so they add two Division 2 members as well: New Haven and Bentley. This gets the league back to 10 members (6 full and 4 transitional).

Around the same time, the Big 12 will officially add Gonzaga. Yormark has been keen on the Zags. This gets the league to 17 Olympic sports members.

Toward the end of the month, I believe the situation out west will also play itself out. It may take some time for all of the legal wrangling to finish, but ultimately I believe that OSU and WSU will invite all 12 MW members to the Pac-12. CBS and FOX will ultimately shift the TV deal from the MW to Pac-12. This scenario avoids the MW schools paying an exit fee and allows OSU and WSU to keep the Pac-12 name and money as well.

As a result of Gonzaga departing the league, the WCC is now down to 8 members. Though St. Mary's would like to only expand by one member to avoid watering down the league, they do not have the political clout Gonzaga had in the league, and the league ultimately invites Seattle and Cal Baptist to get back to 10 members. (Grand Canyon is passed over due to their recent student loan scandal.)

Down to 9 members, the WAC would like to at least add one, and they find that school in Oral Roberts. With the league's geography suddenly becoming more favorable and league's standard of play in basketball higher than that of the Summit, the league is able to poach Oral Roberts to get to 10 members.

The Summit League at this point is down to 8 members. Though they have been trying to avoid doing this, the league ultimately adds Augustana to become the 9th member.

Now let's fast forward to March. Talk has been brewing about this move, and I believe it ultimately gets done: CUSA invites UMass and Delaware to get to 12 members. This ends the stream of FCS to FBS transitions for the next few years and leaves FBS football with just two independents: Notre Dame and UConn.

The Atlantic 10 responds to this move by adding the College of Charleston. This gets the A-10 back to 15 members.

At this point, the CAA is sitting at 12 Olympic members, and CAAF is sitting at 15 football members. The CAA comes up with a compromise proposal and invites both Fairfield and High Point to get to 14 Olympic members.

The CAAF conferences then splits into two: Villanova, Richmond, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, and Bryant leave to form a new Atlantic 10 football league.

The remaining schools (Albany, Campbell, Elon, Hampton, Monmouth, NC A&T, Towson, Stony Brook, and William & Mary) remain in the CAAF.

The MAAC decides to stay at 12 following the departure of Fairfield.

This leaves us with the Big South. The league is down to 8 members following the departure of High Point. Because the league is more basketball focused than the ASUN, the Big South is able to poach Queens to get back to 9 members.

The ASUN is down to 11 members. Though that is a stable number, the league decides to add Valdosta State to add an additional football member in case the United Athletic Conference football league has issues in the future.

These moves result in 367 Division 1 schools (355 full, 12 transitional), 31 Division 1 conferences, 0 basketball independents, 2 FBS football independents, 9 FBS football conferences, 135 FBS schools, 132 FCS schools, 0 FCS independents, and 14 FCS conferences.

how accurate has any of this guys predictions been?

If everyone was forced to do a Next Dominoes thread after every bit of news, everyone would be wrong more often than right.

Judging his accuracy isn’t the point of his threads.

The Big East stays at 11, and is not looking to change just for the sake of doing so.

If UMass and Delaware to the mac comes true? A10 would need to replace UMass.

(11-14-2023 10:43 AM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  I'll throw out a few moves that make sense to me, but are just under the radar if discussed at all...

James Madison to the American
The hypothetical scenario for this is very simple. James Madison goes (12-0) and finishes ranked #15 or better in the final AP poll of the regular season. They ask the Sun Belt to play in the Sun Belt Championship to help their case for the NY6/bowl eligibility and the Sun Belt not only says no, but pisses them off in the process. Cue the American application/invite.

Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky to the MAC
It was reported not too long ago that the MAC offered WKU and Middle Tennessee spots in their conference. Perhaps next time (and soon), the MAC either gets or doesn't get to include UMass and/or Delaware, and instead of looking weak in losing out to the C*US/American/Sun Belt for not getting them, the MAC poaches from the C*USA and sells them on the idea of helping out a travel partner and future in-state rival in EKU.

Gonzaga as Division 1 Independent
I don't know how this would work, but I see the success of this move as somewhere between BYU Indy football (low end of spectrum) and Notre Dame Indy football (high end of spectrum). ESPN/FOX would salivate over getting to make their schedule, that much is certain. They could play most of the Big XII and/or Big East for example.

Delaware to Sun Belt to Replace James Madison (to American)
The first part of this scenario has been mentioned and I think it would be a power move of sorts because the Sun Belt would be flexing on the MAC if they did it.

Independence doesn't work nearly as well in basketball as it does in football (and it's fairly tough sledding in football). Far too hard to schedule and/or get a decent TV deal.

(11-15-2023 12:16 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  The Big East stays at 11, and is not looking to change just for the sake of doing so.

People on here have this wet dream that the Big East hybrid is going to return. It broke up for a reason and isn’t coming back. And no other conference is going to do it on a mass scale. The only non-FB member of an FBS is Wichita State in the AAC and they are there to balance non-FB Navy. Perhaps they take one more to balance Army. Or maybe not.

The MWC has had an odd number for Olympics for years and haven’t done anything about it.

JMU, Temple and Delaware to the A10 replacing Fordham(Patriot, where they should really be) and St Louis (BE)
A10 sponsors FB and Army Navy and UConn join as affiliate members

UMASS
Delaware
Temple
UConn
Army
Navy
JMU

Nice regional conference with room to grow should any other outliers need a home

Why would JMU be leaving a nearly perfect geographical alignment in the Sun Belt that's enabled them to be Top 25 ranked in both football and basketball, at-large bids to both the men's and women's NCAA Soccer Tournaments, a top 5 league in both softball and baseball, giving them rivals enabling them to host College Gameday... to go join that league or any league other than a power league?

Quote:WKU signed a GOR with Conference USA. They also believe they're too good to be in a conference with Eastern Kentucky.

I think that's an over simplification of why it won't happen. I don't think it's so much that they believe they're too good as it is a realization that it's the primary advantage they have as a university...and they want to keep it. That's reasonable.

If you take away FBS football, these are two really, really similar institutions in terms of profile. WKU just gets a lot of publicity and prestige from the football side of things.

With that having been said, I don't think that they would refuse to be in a conference with us in absolute terms, but I do think they'd prefer it all other things being equal. The factors that will ultimately keep us out are a combination of geographical needs/wants for C-USA and the simple existence of other viable options.

If it came down to EKU as a singular, obvious choice, I think WKU would relent. But it won't. So they won't.