Conference Titles (3/1/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

3-peat: Vermont 97%
First Title: UMass Lowell 3%, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida 99%, Charlotte 1%, Florida Atlantic <1%, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth 2%
First Title: Richmond 82%, Loyola Chicago 6%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton <1%, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky , Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia <1%, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 75%, Duke 25%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas <1%
First Title: Houston 87%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 13%, Baylor <1%, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Repeat: Marquette 3%
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn 97%
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Repeat: Purdue 97%
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois 3%, Northwestern <1%, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Repeat: UC Irvine 90%, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego 10%, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis <1%, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 22%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 78%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston , Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston , Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Repeat: Youngstown State <1%
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland >99%, Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay <1%, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 53%, Princeton 33%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell 14%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona <1%
First Title: Quinnipiac 61%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider <1%
Former: Fairfield 21%, St. Peter's 9%, Marist 8%, Niagara 1%, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 5%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 95%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Central Michigan <1%, Ohio <1%, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Repeat: Howard 3%
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: Norfolk State 93%, North Carolina Central 4%, South Carolina State <1%, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State 6%
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 72%, UNLV 1%
Former: Nevada 13%, Boise State 9%, New Mexico <1%, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State 96%, Drake 4%, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Repeat: Merrimack 78%
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut 22%, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Repeat: Morehead State 9%
First Title: Little Rock 86%, Western Illinois <1%, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin 6%, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Repeat: UCLA <1%
First Title: Colorado <1%, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona 82%, Washington State 18%, Oregon <1%, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Repeat: Alabama 54%
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina 1%, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee 44%, Auburn <1%, Kentucky <1%, Florida <1%, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford

This is the Bulldogs second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford , Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi <1%
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State 100%, Nicholls <1%, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Repeat: Grambling (2nd) 76%, Alcorn State (3rd) <1%
First Title: Bethune-Cookman <1%, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Southern 18%, Texas Southern 5%, Jackson State <1%, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State

This is the Jackrabbits eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State , North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State , James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 24%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 76%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd) , Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific
[/quote]

(11-15-2023 02:05 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  Big West

Appearances:

7 UC Santa Barbara
4 Hawai'i
4 Long Beach State
3 Cal State Fullerton
2 UC Irvine
2 Cal State Northridge
1 UC Davis
1 Cal State Bakersfield
1 Cal Poly
0 UC Riverside
P UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Wins:

1 UC Santa Barbara
1 Hawai'i
1 UC Irvine
1 UC Davis
1 Cal Poly
0 Long Beach State
0 Cal State Fullerton
0 Cal State Northridge
0 Cal State Bakersfield
0 UC Riverside

Record

.500 UC Davis (1-1)
.500 Cal Poly (1-1)
.333 UC Irvine (1-2)
.200 Hawai'i (1-4)
.125 UC Santa Barbara (1-7)
.000 Long Beach State (0-4)
.000 Cal State Fullerton (0-3)
.000 Cal State Northridge (0-2)
.000 Cal State Bakersfield (0-1)
.000 UC Riverside (0-0)

Last Appearance:

2023 UC Santa Barbara (streak of 1)
2022 Cal State Fullerton
2019 UC Irvine
2017 UC Davis
2016 Hawai'i
2016 Cal State Bakersfield
2014 Cal Poly
2012 Long Beach State
2009 Cal State Northridge
Never UC Riverside
P UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Seeking:

Sweet 16 UC Irvine (R32 2019)
Sweet 16 Hawai'i (R32 2016)
Sweet 16 UC Santa Barbara (R32 1990)
First Win R64 UC Davis (play-in win 2017)
First Win R64 Cal Poly (play-in win 2014)
First Win Modern Long Beach State (4 attempts)
First Win Modern Cal State Fullerton (3 attempts)
First Win Cal State Northridge (2 attempts)
First Win Cal State Bakersfield (1 attempt)
First Tournament UC Riverside (21 attempts)
Provisional UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Legacy Banners:

1971 Elite 8 Long Beach State (1972 vacated)
1978 Elite 8 Cal State Fullerton

Regular Season Big West Championship:

2022 Long Beach State
2021 UC Santa Barbara (+2023T)
2020 UC Irvine (+2023T)
2018 UC Davis
2009 Cal State Northridge
2016T Hawai'i
2008T Cal State Fullerton

Other Championships

2017 Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
1996 Cal Poly (American West)
2016 UC San Diego (California Collegiate (CCAA) DII, +2019T)
1995 UC Riverside (CCAA DII)

The bolded caught my eye, and I found an article with a lot of information pertaining to that era.

https://lbpost.com/sports/50-years-ago-t...tball-map/

(03-03-2024 09:39 AM)cubucks Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 02:05 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  Big West

Appearances:

7 UC Santa Barbara
4 Hawai'i
4 Long Beach State
3 Cal State Fullerton
2 UC Irvine
2 Cal State Northridge
1 UC Davis
1 Cal State Bakersfield
1 Cal Poly
0 UC Riverside
P UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Wins:

1 UC Santa Barbara
1 Hawai'i
1 UC Irvine
1 UC Davis
1 Cal Poly
0 Long Beach State
0 Cal State Fullerton
0 Cal State Northridge
0 Cal State Bakersfield
0 UC Riverside

Record

.500 UC Davis (1-1)
.500 Cal Poly (1-1)
.333 UC Irvine (1-2)
.200 Hawai'i (1-4)
.125 UC Santa Barbara (1-7)
.000 Long Beach State (0-4)
.000 Cal State Fullerton (0-3)
.000 Cal State Northridge (0-2)
.000 Cal State Bakersfield (0-1)
.000 UC Riverside (0-0)

Last Appearance:

2023 UC Santa Barbara (streak of 1)
2022 Cal State Fullerton
2019 UC Irvine
2017 UC Davis
2016 Hawai'i
2016 Cal State Bakersfield
2014 Cal Poly
2012 Long Beach State
2009 Cal State Northridge
Never UC Riverside
P UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Seeking:

Sweet 16 UC Irvine (R32 2019)
Sweet 16 Hawai'i (R32 2016)
Sweet 16 UC Santa Barbara (R32 1990)
First Win R64 UC Davis (play-in win 2017)
First Win R64 Cal Poly (play-in win 2014)
First Win Modern Long Beach State (4 attempts)
First Win Modern Cal State Fullerton (3 attempts)
First Win Cal State Northridge (2 attempts)
First Win Cal State Bakersfield (1 attempt)
First Tournament UC Riverside (21 attempts)
Provisional UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Legacy Banners:

1971 Elite 8 Long Beach State (1972 vacated)
1978 Elite 8 Cal State Fullerton

Regular Season Big West Championship:

2022 Long Beach State
2021 UC Santa Barbara (+2023T)
2020 UC Irvine (+2023T)
2018 UC Davis
2009 Cal State Northridge
2016T Hawai'i
2008T Cal State Fullerton

Other Championships

2017 Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
1996 Cal Poly (American West)
2016 UC San Diego (California Collegiate (CCAA) DII, +2019T)
1995 UC Riverside (CCAA DII)

The bolded caught my eye, and I found an article with a lot of information pertaining to that era.

https://lbpost.com/sports/50-years-ago-t...tball-map/

Thanks.

There was a sentence about Long Beach State qualifying for the NCAAT in their first year of eligibility, with North Dakota State repeating the feat in 2009. Merrimack has an opportunity to duplicate those schools' achievements. Merrimack won the NEC tournament last year but could not play in the NCAA tournament as they finished up their last provisional season. Fairleigh Dickinson who had lost to Merrimack in the NEC final went in their stead and became the first #16 seed to ever beat a #1 seed.

The only Final Four I have attended was in 1987 in New Orleans where UNLV participated. The head coaches were Bobby Knight (Indiana), Jim Boeheim (Syracuse), Jerry Tarkanian (UNLV), and Rick Pitino (Providence) then 34 years-old.

We shared a cab with a mathematics professor from UNLV (I assume in probability or statistics, or maybe convenient access to the casinos). He was somewhat relieved that UNLV had lost in the semifinal since it meant he could bet on the remainder of the tournament. Apparently at that time you could not bet on the NCAA tournament so long as UNLV was involved.

(03-03-2024 11:12 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(03-03-2024 09:39 AM)cubucks Wrote:  

(11-15-2023 02:05 AM)jimrtex Wrote:  Big West

Appearances:

7 UC Santa Barbara
4 Hawai'i
4 Long Beach State
3 Cal State Fullerton
2 UC Irvine
2 Cal State Northridge
1 UC Davis
1 Cal State Bakersfield
1 Cal Poly
0 UC Riverside
P UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Wins:

1 UC Santa Barbara
1 Hawai'i
1 UC Irvine
1 UC Davis
1 Cal Poly
0 Long Beach State
0 Cal State Fullerton
0 Cal State Northridge
0 Cal State Bakersfield
0 UC Riverside

Record

.500 UC Davis (1-1)
.500 Cal Poly (1-1)
.333 UC Irvine (1-2)
.200 Hawai'i (1-4)
.125 UC Santa Barbara (1-7)
.000 Long Beach State (0-4)
.000 Cal State Fullerton (0-3)
.000 Cal State Northridge (0-2)
.000 Cal State Bakersfield (0-1)
.000 UC Riverside (0-0)

Last Appearance:

2023 UC Santa Barbara (streak of 1)
2022 Cal State Fullerton
2019 UC Irvine
2017 UC Davis
2016 Hawai'i
2016 Cal State Bakersfield
2014 Cal Poly
2012 Long Beach State
2009 Cal State Northridge
Never UC Riverside
P UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Seeking:

Sweet 16 UC Irvine (R32 2019)
Sweet 16 Hawai'i (R32 2016)
Sweet 16 UC Santa Barbara (R32 1990)
First Win R64 UC Davis (play-in win 2017)
First Win R64 Cal Poly (play-in win 2014)
First Win Modern Long Beach State (4 attempts)
First Win Modern Cal State Fullerton (3 attempts)
First Win Cal State Northridge (2 attempts)
First Win Cal State Bakersfield (1 attempt)
First Tournament UC Riverside (21 attempts)
Provisional UC San Diego (eligible 2025)

Legacy Banners:

1971 Elite 8 Long Beach State (1972 vacated)
1978 Elite 8 Cal State Fullerton

Regular Season Big West Championship:

2022 Long Beach State
2021 UC Santa Barbara (+2023T)
2020 UC Irvine (+2023T)
2018 UC Davis
2009 Cal State Northridge
2016T Hawai'i
2008T Cal State Fullerton

Other Championships

2017 Cal State Bakersfield (WAC)
1996 Cal Poly (American West)
2016 UC San Diego (California Collegiate (CCAA) DII, +2019T)
1995 UC Riverside (CCAA DII)

The bolded caught my eye, and I found an article with a lot of information pertaining to that era.

https://lbpost.com/sports/50-years-ago-t...tball-map/

Thanks.

There was a sentence about Long Beach State qualifying for the NCAAT in their first year of eligibility, with North Dakota State repeating the feat in 2009. Merrimack has an opportunity to duplicate those schools' achievements. Merrimack won the NEC tournament last year but could not play in the NCAA tournament as they finished up their last provisional season. Fairleigh Dickinson who had lost to Merrimack in the NEC final went in their stead and became the first #16 seed to ever beat a #1 seed.

The only Final Four I have attended was in 1987 in New Orleans where UNLV participated. The head coaches were Bobby Knight (Indiana), Jim Boeheim (Syracuse), Jerry Tarkanian (UNLV), and Rick Pitino (Providence) then 34 years-old.

We shared a cab with a mathematics professor from UNLV (I assume in probability or statistics, or maybe convenient access to the casinos). He was somewhat relieved that UNLV had lost in the semifinal since it meant he could bet on the remainder of the tournament. Apparently at that time you could not bet on the NCAA tournament so long as UNLV was involved.

Legendary group of coaches!

Conference Titles (3/2/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida , Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond 94%, Loyola Chicago 6%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton <1%, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky , Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 74%, Duke 26%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston 91%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 9%, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Repeat: Marquette 3%
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn 97%
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Repeat: Purdue 98%
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois 2%, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Repeat: UC Irvine 91%, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego 9%, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 24%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 76%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston , Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston , Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland , Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 60%, Princeton 40%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell <1%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac 62%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider <1%
Former: Fairfield 20%, St. Peter's 9%, Marist 8%, Niagara 1%, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 5%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 95%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio <1%, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Repeat: Howard 8%
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: Norfolk State 83%, North Carolina Central 9%, South Carolina State <1%, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State 6%
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 71%, UNLV 1%
Former: Boise State 14%, Nevada 11%, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State 96%, Drake 4%, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut and Merrimack

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut , Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock, Tennessee-Martin, and Morehead State

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock , Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin , Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona 80%, Washington State 20%, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Repeat: Alabama 3%
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina 7%, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee 89%, Auburn <1%, Kentucky <1%, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford , Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State , Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Repeat: Grambling (2nd) 85%, Alcorn State (3rd) 1%
First Title: Bethune-Cookman <1%, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Texas Southern 11%, Southern 2%, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State , North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State , James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 30%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 70%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd) , Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

Conference Titles (3/3/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont Catamounts

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida Bulls

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond 94%, Loyola Chicago 6%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton <1%, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 74%, Duke 26%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston 91%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 9%, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Clinched: UConn Huskies

This is the Huskies' first title since their return to the Big East. Overall, UConn has nine Big East titles, four outright, two shared, and three divisional. The Huskies' last outright title was in 1999.

Repeat: Marquette
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington Eagles

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point Panthers

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Repeat: Purdue 98%
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois 2%, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Repeat: UC Irvine 91%, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego 9%, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 24%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 76%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston Cougars

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston , Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston , Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland Golden Grizzlies

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland , Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 60%, Princeton 40%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell <1%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac 64%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider <1%
Former: Fairfield 23%, St. Peter's 12%, Marist <1%, Niagara, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 5%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 95%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio <1%, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Repeat: Howard 8%
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: Norfolk State 83%, North Carolina Central 9%, South Carolina State <1%, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State 6%
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 71%, UNLV 1%
Former: Boise State 14%, Nevada 11%, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Clinched: Indiana State Sycamores

This is the Sycamores' third Valley title, and first since 2000.

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State , Drake, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut Blue Devils and Merrimack Warriors

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut , Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock , Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin , Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona 80%, Washington State 20%, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate Raiders

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Repeat: Alabama 3%
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina 7%, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee 89%, Auburn <1%, Kentucky <1%, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford Bulldogs

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford , Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese Cowboys

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State , Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Repeat: Grambling (2nd) 85%, Alcorn State (3rd) 1%
First Title: Bethune-Cookman <1%, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Texas Southern 11%, Southern 2%, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State , North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State Mountaineers

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State , James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 30%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 70%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's Gaels

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd) , Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

Conference Titles (3/4/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont Catamounts

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida Bulls

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond 94%, Loyola Chicago 6%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton <1%, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 74%, Duke 26%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston 91%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 9%, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Clinched: UConn Huskies

This is the Huskies' first title since their return to the Big East. Overall, UConn has nine Big East titles, four outright, two shared, and three divisional. The Huskies' last outright title was in 1999.

Repeat: Marquette
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington Eagles

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point Panthers

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Repeat: Purdue 98%
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois 2%, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Repeat: UC Irvine 91%, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego 9%, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 24%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 76%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston Cougars

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston , Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston, Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland Golden Grizzlies

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland, Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 60%, Princeton 40%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell <1%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac 63%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider
Former: Fairfield 25%, St. Peter's 12%, Marist <1%, Niagara, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 5%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 95%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio <1%, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Repeat: Howard 13%
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: Norfolk State 87%, South Carolina State <1%, North Carolina Central 9%, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State 2%
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 72%, UNLV <1%
Former: Boise State 14%, Nevada 11%, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Clinched: Indiana State Sycamores

This is the Sycamores' third Valley title, and first since 2000.

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State, Drake, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut Blue Devils and Merrimack Warriors

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock, Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona 80%, Washington State 20%, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate Raiders

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Repeat: Alabama 3%
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina 6%, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee 90%, Auburn <1%, Kentucky <1%, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford Bulldogs

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford, Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese Cowboys

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State, Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Repeat: Grambling (2nd) >99%, Alcorn State (3rd) <1%
First Title: Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Southern <1%, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State, North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State Mountaineers

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 31%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 69%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's Gaels

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd), Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

March 4, 2024 update

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

Four teams, Chicago State, UTRGV, NJIT, and Central Arkansas will not be dancing this season.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) 0.3%, #8 seed
84 The Citadel (SoCon) 0.4%, #9
84 William & Mary (CAA) 0.04%, #13
70 Maine (Am E) 1.6%, #6
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.3%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 5.1%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) 0.0%, Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson (ASUN) 20.7%, #2
45 Grambling (SWAC) 13.5%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 7.1%, #6
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.6%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) 29.4%, #2
41 Western Illinois (OVC) 7.5%, #4
38 Chicago State (Ind.) 0.0%, #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) 12.9%, #2
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 0.6%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) 16.5%, #3
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) 2.9%, #8, 67.0% chance of making conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 17.5%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) 0.1%, #11
23 High Point (Big South) 40.0%, #1
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) 9.3%, #3
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.2%, #8, 87.0% chance of making conference tournament
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) 8.0%, #8
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) 10.5%, #2
13 NJIT (Am E) 0.0%, #9, eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 2.0%, #6
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) 0.0%, #11, eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) 0.5%, #8
10 Presbyterian (Big South) 2.1%, #10
10 SIUE (OVC) 2.1%, #6
10 South Dakota (Summit) 0.5%, #9
8 Omaha (Summit) 6.2%, #6
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 24.2%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland) 0.00%, #9, 2.6% chance of making conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.3%, #7, 96.1% chance of making conference tournament
1 North Alabama (ASUN) 2.9%, #6
0 Merrimack (NEC) 37.8%, #2

Ranked by Probability

40.0% High Point (Big South) (23), #1
37.8% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
29.4% Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2
24.2% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
20.7% Stetson (ASUN) (51), #2
17.5% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
16.5% Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #3
13.4% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
12.9% Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2
10.5% Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2
9.3% Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3
8.0% Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8
7.5% Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4
7.1% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #6
6.2% Omaha (Summit) (8), #6
5.1% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
2.9% Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24), #8, 67.0% chance of making conference tournament
2.9% North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6
2.3% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
2.1% Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6
2.1% SIUE (OVC) (10), #6
2.0% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #6
1.6% Maine (Am E) (70), #6
1.6% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.3% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #7, 96.1% chance of making commerce tournament
1.2% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #8, 87.0% chance of making conference tournament
0.6% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
0.5% SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #9
0.5% South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9
0.4% The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9
0.3% Army (Patriot) (84), #8
0.1% Elon (CAA) (23), #11
0.04% William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13
0.00% Incarnate Word (Southland) (5), #9, 2.6% chance of making commerce tournament

Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12), #11, eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13), #9, eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) 0.0%, Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) 0.0%, #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.89 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

0 3.0%
1 13.1%
2 24.9%
3 27.2%
4 19.1%
5 9.0%
6 2.9%
7 0.6%
8 0.1%

Conference Tournaments

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

#1 Eastern Kentucky 31.7% chance of winning, seeking 1st NCAAT win, (3 modern appearances, 2014 last appearance)
#2 Stetson 20.7%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#3 Lipscomb 26.5%, 1st win, (1, 2018)
#4 Austin Peay, 9.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#5 North Florida, 3.7%, 1st win, (1, 2015)
#6 North Alabama, 2.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#7 Florida Gulf Coast, 2.5%, Elite 8, (3, 2017)
#8 Queens, 0.7%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#9 Kennesaw State, 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2023, streak 1)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 0.4%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)
#11 Central Arkansas, 0.0% excluded from tournament, 1st tournament (12 misses) (0, never)
#12 Bellarmine, 0.0% excluded from tournament, Provisional Eligible 2025 (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Jacksonville (FL) 92, Kennesaw State 86
Queens 69, Florida Gulf Coast 63

Quarterfinals
------------
Jacksonville (FL) 67, Eastern Kentucky 65
Stetson 83, Queens 71
North Alabama 77, Lipscomb 75
Austin Peay 101, North Florida 98 (OT)

Losses by Eastern Kentucky and Lipscomb, who had been given a collective 58% chance of winning the tournament, opens up an opportunity for Stetson and the other three semifinalists.

The ASUN reseeds its quarterfinals, so Stetson has home court advantage so long as they remain in the tournament. The Hatters have the second longest number of non-appearances behind the six schools who were eligible for the first NCAA tournament in 1938.

Jacksonville (FL) knocked off the regular season champion Jacksonville State (AL) in 2022. That tournament was won by Bellarmine who was (and is) a provisional school not eligible for the NCAA tournament. The AQ was given to Jacksonville State as the regular season champion. The elimination of Queens forecloses that possibility for Eastern Kentucky gaining the AQ this season.

#2 Stetson 51.9%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 27.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#6 North Alabama, 13.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 6.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)

Horizon League

#1 Oakland 21.7%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.4%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 4.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 20.9%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.3%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 5.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 8.1%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)
#9 Robert Morris 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2015)
#10 IUPUI 0.00%, 1st win (1, 2003)
#11 Detroit Mercy 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Milwaukee 83, Detroit Mercy 69
Cleveland State 85, IUPUI 66
Fort Wayne 78, Robert Morris 63

The favored team (and host) wins all three first round games.

#1 Oakland 20.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.2%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 5.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 21.3%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.4%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 4.9%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 9.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)

Patriot League

#1 Colgate 72.4%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 8.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.5%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.6%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.1%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#8 Army 0.3%, 1st tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#9 Holy Cross 0.03%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)
#10 Loyola Maryland 0.1%, 1st win, (2, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Navy 64, Loyola Maryland 48
Holy Cross 84, Army 68

This ends Army's quest for a NCAAT berth. The streak now stands at 85 seasons.

#1 Colgate 73.7%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 7.6%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.4%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.3%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.5%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#9 Holy Cross 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)

Sun Belt Conference

#1 Appalachian State 31.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.9%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.5%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#12 Louisiana Monroe 0.04%, 1st win, (6, 1996)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.02%, 1st win (4, 2015)
#14 Old Dominion 0.1%, Sweet 16, (10, 2019)

First Round
-----------
Texas State 92, Old Dominion 83 (OT)
Coastal Carolina 75, Louisiana-Monroe 71

#1 Appalachian State 31.9%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.6%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.3%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.6%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.04%, 1st win (4, 2015)

Conference Titles (3/5/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont Catamounts

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida Bulls

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond 94%, Loyola Chicago 6%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton <1%, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 68%, Duke 32%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston 91%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 9%, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Clinched: UConn Huskies

This is the Huskies' first title since their return to the Big East. Overall, UConn has nine Big East titles, four outright, two shared, and three divisional. The Huskies' last outright title was in 1999.

Repeat: Marquette
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington Eagles

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point Panthers

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Repeat: Purdue 98%
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois 2%, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Repeat: UC Irvine 90%, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego 10%, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 24%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 76%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston Cougars

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston, Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston, Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland Golden Grizzlies

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland, Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 59%, Princeton 40%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell <1%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac 65%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider
Former: Fairfield 24%, St. Peter's 11%, Marist <1%, Niagara, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 46%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 54%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio <1%, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Repeat: Howard 13%
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: Norfolk State 87%, South Carolina State <1%, North Carolina Central 9%, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 65%, UNLV 2%
Former: Nevada 32%, Boise State <1%, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Clinched: Indiana State Sycamores

This is the Sycamores' third Valley title, and first since 2000.

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State, Drake, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut Blue Devils and Merrimack Warriors

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock, Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona 82%, Washington State 18%, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate Raiders

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Repeat: Alabama <1%
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina 9%, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee 89%, Kentucky 2%, Auburn <1%, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford Bulldogs

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford, Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese Cowboys

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State, Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Repeat: Grambling (2nd) >99%, Alcorn State (3rd) <1%
First Title: Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Southern <1%, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State, North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State Mountaineers

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 30%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 70%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's Gaels

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd), Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

Conference Titles (3/6/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont Catamounts

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida Bulls

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond 78%, Loyola Chicago 22%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 82%, Duke 18%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston 93%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 7%, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Clinched: UConn Huskies

This is the Huskies' first title since their return to the Big East. Overall, UConn has nine Big East titles, four outright, two shared, and three divisional. The Huskies' last outright title was in 1999.

Repeat: Marquette
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington Eagles

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point Panthers

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Clinched: Purdue Boilermakers

This is Purdue's 25th Big Ten title, 13th outright and second consecutive.

Repeat: Purdue 98%
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Repeat: UC Irvine 91%, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego 9%, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 20%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 80%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston Cougars

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston, Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston, Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland Golden Grizzlies

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland, Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 59%, Princeton 40%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell <1%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac 68%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider
Former: St. Peter's 16%, Fairfield 15%, St. Peter's 16%, Marist 1%, Niagara, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 44%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 55%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio
1%, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Repeat: Howard 15%
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: Norfolk State 83%, South Carolina State 2%, North Carolina Central 9%, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 75%, UNLV 6%
Former: Nevada 15%, Boise State 5%, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Clinched: Indiana State Sycamores

This is the Sycamores' third Valley title, and first since 2000.

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State, Drake, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut Blue Devils and Merrimack Warriors

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock, Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona 90%, Washington State 10%, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate Raiders

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Clinched: Tennessee Volunteers

This is the Volunteers' 14th title of any kind. It is their fifth outright title and first since 1967. They also have five shared titles, three divisional titles, and two shared divisional titles.

Repeat: Alabama
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford Bulldogs

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford, Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese Cowboys

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State, Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Repeat: Grambling (2nd) 89%, Alcorn State (3rd) 8%
First Title: Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Southern 3%, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State, North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State Mountaineers

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 7%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 93%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's Gaels

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd), Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

March 6, 2024 update

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

Eight Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) Eliminated, first round.
84 The Citadel (SoCon) 0.4%, #9
84 William & Mary (CAA) 0.04%, #13
70 Maine (Am E) 1.8%, #6
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.8%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 5.1%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson (ASUN) 51.6%, #2
45 Grambling (SWAC) 13.5%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 7.1%, #6
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.6%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) 29.2%, #2
41 Western Illinois (OVC) 7.0%, #4
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) 12.9%, #2
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 0.6%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) 16.6%, #3
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) 2.9%, #8, 67.0% chance of making conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 17.6%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) 0.1%, #11
23 High Point (Big South) 38.7%, #1
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) 0.0%, Eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.5%, #7
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) 9.5%, #8
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) 10.5%, #2
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 2.0%, #6
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) 2.1%, #10
10 SIUE (OVC) 3.8%, #6
10 South Dakota (Summit) 0.5%, #9
8 Omaha (Summit) 6.4%, #6
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 24.2%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland) eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.1%, #8, 89% chance of making conference tournament
1 North Alabama (ASUN) 14.0%, #6
0 Merrimack (NEC) 39.1%, #2

Ranked by Probability

51.6% Stetson (ASUN) (51), #2
39.1% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
38.7% High Point (Big South) (23), #1
29.3% Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2
24.8% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
17.6% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
16.6% Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #3
14.0% North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6
13.5% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
12.9% Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2
10.5% Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2
9.5% Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8
7.1% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #6
7.0% Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4
6.4% Omaha (Summit) (8), #6
5.1% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
3.8% SIUE (OVC) (10), #6
2.9% Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24), #8, 80% chance of making conference tournament
2.8% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
2.1% Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6
2.0% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #6
1.8% Maine (Am E) (70), #6
1.6% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.5% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #7
1.1% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #8
0.6% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
0.5% South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9
0.4% The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9
0.1% Elon (CAA) (23), #11
0.04% William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13

Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #9 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 3.25 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

0 1.5%
1 8.7%
2 20.8%
3 27.5%
4 22.9%
5 12.6%
6 4.7%
7 1.2%
8 0.2%

Conference Titles (3/7/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont Catamounts

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida Bulls

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond 78%, Loyola Chicago 22%, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina 82%, Duke 18%, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston 93%, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State 7%, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Clinched: UConn Huskies

This is the Huskies' first title since their return to the Big East. Overall, UConn has nine Big East titles, four outright, two shared, and three divisional. The Huskies' last outright title was in 1999.

Repeat: Marquette
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington Eagles

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point Panthers

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Clinched: Purdue Boilermakers

This is Purdue's 25th Big Ten title, 13th outright and second consecutive.

Repeat: Purdue
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Clinched: UC Irvine Anteaters

This is the Anteaters' 8th title, 6th outright, and repeat (last year's title was shared with UCSB)

Repeat: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston 87%, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech 13%, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston Cougars

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston, Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston, Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland Golden Grizzlies

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland, Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Repeat: Yale 59%, Princeton 40%
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell <1%, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac 87%, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider
Former: Fairfield 13%, St. Peter's, Marist, Niagara, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

4-peat: Toledo 44%
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron 55%, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio
1%, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Clinched: Norfolk State Spartans

This is the Spartans' fifth title, including four outright.

Repeat: Howard
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: :basketball Norfolk State, South Carolina State, North Carolina Central, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Repeat: San Diego State
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State 75%, UNLV 6%
Former: Nevada 15%, Boise State 5%, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Clinched: Indiana State Sycamores

This is the Sycamores' third Valley title, and first since 2000.

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State, Drake, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut Blue Devils and Merrimack Warriors

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock, Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Clinched: Arizona Wildcats

This is the Wildcats' 18th title, including 15 outright. Since their first PAC-12 title in 1986, Arizona has finished atop the standings 18 of 39 seasons.

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona, Washington State, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate Raiders

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Clinched: Tennessee Volunteers

This is the Volunteers' 14th title of any kind. It is their fifth outright title and first since 1967. They also have five shared titles, three divisional titles, and two shared divisional titles.

Repeat: Alabama
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford Bulldogs

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford, Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese Cowboys

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State, Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Clinched: Grambling Tigers

This is the 12th SWAC title for the Tigers, including eight outright. They shared the title with Alcorn State last season.

Repeat: Grambling (2nd), Alcorn State (3rd)
First Title: Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Southern, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State, North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State Mountaineers

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton State 7%, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon 93%

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's Gaels

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd), Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

Conference Tournaments

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

#1 Eastern Kentucky 31.7% chance of winning, seeking 1st NCAAT win, (3 modern appearances, 2014 last appearance)
#2 Stetson 20.7%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#3 Lipscomb 26.5%, 1st win, (1, 2018)
#4 Austin Peay, 9.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#5 North Florida, 3.7%, 1st win, (1, 2015)
#6 North Alabama, 2.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#7 Florida Gulf Coast, 2.5%, Elite 8, (3, 2017)
#8 Queens, 0.7%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#9 Kennesaw State, 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2023, streak 1)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 0.4%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)
#11 Central Arkansas, 0.0% excluded from tournament, 1st tournament (12 misses) (0, never)
#12 Bellarmine, 0.0% excluded from tournament, Provisional Eligible 2025 (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Jacksonville (FL) 92, Kennesaw State 86
Queens 69, Florida Gulf Coast 63

Quarterfinals
------------
Jacksonville (FL) 67, Eastern Kentucky 65
Stetson 83, Queens 71
North Alabama 77, Lipscomb 75
Austin Peay 101, North Florida 98 (OT)

Losses by Eastern Kentucky and Lipscomb, who had been given a collective 58% chance of winning the tournament, opens up an opportunity for Stetson and the other three semifinalists.

The ASUN reseeds its quarterfinals, so Stetson has home court advantage so long as they remain in the tournament. The Hatters have the second longest number of non-appearances behind the six schools who were eligible for the first NCAA tournament in 1938.

Jacksonville (FL) knocked off the regular season champion Jacksonville State (AL) in 2022. That tournament was won by Bellarmine who was (and is) a provisional school not eligible for the NCAA tournament. The AQ was given to Jacksonville State as the regular season champion. The elimination of Queens forecloses that possibility for Eastern Kentucky gaining the AQ this season.

#2 Stetson 51.9%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 27.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#6 North Alabama, 13.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 6.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)

Semifinals
---------
Stetson 88, Jacksonville (FL) 87
Austin Peay 77, North Alabama 71

Stetson is one win away from their first ever trip to the NCAA tournament

#2 Stetson 66.2%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 33.8%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)

Horizon League

#1 Oakland 21.7%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.4%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 4.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 20.9%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.3%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 5.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 8.1%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)
#9 Robert Morris 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2015)
#10 IUPUI 0.00%, 1st win (1, 2003)
#11 Detroit Mercy 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Milwaukee 83, Detroit Mercy 69
Cleveland State 85, IUPUI 66
Fort Wayne 78, Robert Morris 63

The favored team (and host) wins all three first round games.

#1 Oakland 20.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.2%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 5.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 21.3%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.4%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 4.9%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 9.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)

Quarterfinals
------------
Oakland 85, Fort Wayne 75
Cleveland State 82, Youngstown State 66
Milwaukee 95, Green Bay 84
Northern Kentucky 99, Wright State 84

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds all go down at home.

#1 Oakland 38.3%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#5 Northern Kentucky 24.3%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 15.2%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 22.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)

Patriot League

#1 Colgate 72.4%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 8.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.5%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.6%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.1%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#8 Army 0.3%, 1st tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#9 Holy Cross 0.03%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)
#10 Loyola Maryland 0.1%, 1st win, (2, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Navy 64, Loyola Maryland 48
Holy Cross 84, Army 68

This ends Army's quest for a NCAAT berth. The streak now stands at 85 seasons.

#1 Colgate 73.7%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 7.6%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.4%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.3%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.5%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#9 Holy Cross 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)

Colgate 81, Holy Cross 64
Boston University 70, Navy 61
Lehigh 76, Lafayette 61
Bucknell 80, American 57

#1 Colgate 76.0%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 9.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#5 Bucknell 5.8%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 8.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)

Sun Belt Conference

#1 Appalachian State 31.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.9%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.5%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#12 Louisiana Monroe 0.04%, 1st win, (6, 1996)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.02%, 1st win (4, 2015)
#14 Old Dominion 0.1%, Sweet 16, (10, 2019)

First Round
-----------
Texas State 92, Old Dominion 83 (OT)
Coastal Carolina 75, Louisiana-Monroe 71

#1 Appalachian State 31.9%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.6%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.3%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.6%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.04%, 1st win (4, 2015)

Big South

#1 High Point 39.8%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.2%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.5%, (1, 1997)
#8 SC-Upstate 0.5%, 1st tournament (0, never)
#9 Radford 2.7%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

First Round
-----------
Radford 67, SC-Upstate 60

#1 High Point 38.6%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.6%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.2%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.6%, (1, 1997)
#9 Radford 4.1%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

Quarterfinals
------------
High Point 77, Radford 63
UNC-Asheville 60, Charleston Southern 55
Gardner Webb 61, Presbyterian 60
Longwood 69, Winthrop 56

Winthrop losing to Longwood enhances High Point's odds for first tournament

#1 High Point 51.2%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.6%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 11.7%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#5 Longwood 13.5%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Northeast Conference (NEC)

#1 Central Connecticut 41.8%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 37.7%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#3 Sacred Heart 9.4%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 5.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT (0, never)
#5 Fairleigh Dickinson 2.0%, Sweet 16, (7, 2023 streak of 1)
#6 Wagner 3.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#7, Long Island University 0.2%, 1st win (5, 2018)
#8, St. Francis (PA) 0.2%, 1st win (1, 1991)
#9, Stonehill 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for NCAAT

First Round
-----------
Central Connecticut 71, St. Francis (PA) 68
Merrimack 72, Long Island University 66
Wagner 60, Sacred Heart 57
Le Moyne 82, Fairleigh Dickinson 61

#1 Central Connecticut 44.4%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 39.1%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 58.7%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#6 Wagner 7.9%, 1st win, (1, 2022)

Merrimack continues quest for NCAA tournament in first opportunity as a full DI member. Le Moyne eliminates last season's Cinderella, FDU. Sacred Heart misses out on 24th opportunity to dance.

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

#1 Little Rock 28.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.5%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 41.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.5%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 2.9%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Eastern Illinois 1.0%, 1st win (2, 2001)
#8 Southern Indiana 0.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#9, Tennessee Tech 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st modern tournament (0, 1963)
#10 South East Missouri 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st win, (2, 2023, streak of 1)
#11 Lindenwood 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for 8-team tournament, (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Tennessee State 78, Southern Indiana 64
SIUE 68, Eastern Illinois 57

#1 Little Rock 27.5%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.6%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 40.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.0%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 4.6%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 3.8% tournament (10 misses), (0, never)

Second Round
--------------
Morehead State 78, SIUE 63
Western Illinois 61, Tennessee State 59

#1 Little Rock 24.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 13.3%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 51.8%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 10.8%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)

Semifinals
---------
Little Rock 82, Western Illinois 57
Morehead State 84, Tennessee State 78

#1 Little Rock 34.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#3 Morehead State 65.3%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)

Colonial Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.8%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 18.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.4%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.3%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#11 Elon 0.1%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#12 NC A&T 0.00%, Round of 32 (7, 2013)
#13 William & Mary 0.04%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

First Round
-----------
Hampton 56, Elon 55
William & Mary 79, NC A&T 66

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.7%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 19.2%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.2%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.6%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#13 William & Mary 0.1%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

Missouri Valley Conference (MVC)

#1 Indiana State 36.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.1%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 17.2%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 7.2%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 3.3%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#6 Southern Illinois 2.7%, Elite 8, (8, 2007)
#7 Illinois State 0.5%, Sweet 16, (4, 1998)
#8 Murray State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (16, 2022)
#9 Missouri State 1.0%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.2%, 1st win, (3, 2004)
#12 Valparaiso 0.02%, Elite 8, (9, 2015)

First Round
-----------
Belmont 86, Valparaiso 61
Illinois-Chicago 84-Southern Illinois
Evansville 59, Illinois State 53
Missouri State 60, Murray State 35

#1 Indiana State 35.5%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.9%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 19.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 6.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 4.1%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#9 Missouri State 2.3%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.4%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2004)

Quarterfinals
------------
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59
Drake 79, Evansville 58
Bradley 74, Illinois-Chicago 47
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59

Favorites win by average of 20 points.

#1 Indiana State 41.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 29.4%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 20.4%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 8.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)

Southern Conference (SoCon)

#1 Samford 38.3%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 18.0%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.1%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.4%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.0%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 3.5%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.0%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)
#9 The Citadel 0.4%, First tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#10 VMI 0.0%, First tournament modern, (0, 1977)

First Round
-----------
East Tennessee State 98, VMI 66
Mercer 84, Citadel 76

#1 Samford 37.2%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 17.1%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.3%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.8%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 4.4%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.8%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)

Conference Titles (3/8/2023)

odds from teamrankings.com

Note the odds from teamrankings are probability of being the Number 1 seed. A team that has clinched at least a tie for a conference championship, but would receive the #1 seed based on tiebreakers will show as 100%, even though other schools have a possibility of a co-championship.

First Title is first title in current conference.
First Outright is first outright title, they have shared or division titles.
First Since Return is first title since return to conference (UConn, ODU, and San Francisco)
Former: Have conference title in previous years.

Struck out schools are mathematically eliminated,
<1% have a mathematical possibility.

America East

Clinched: Vermont Catamounts

This is the Catamounts' third consecutive title, and 13th overall, including eleven outright. Vermont has finished first seven of the last eight seasons.

3-peat: Vermont
First Title: UMass Lowell, Bryant, Maine, NJIT
First Outright: New Hampshire, Binghampton
Former: Albany, UMBC

American Athletic (AAC)

Clinched: South Florida Bulls

This is the Bulls' first American title, and first of any kind since a 2000 CUSA National Division crown.

No Title Defender: Houston to Big XII
First Title: South Florida, Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, UAB, North Texas, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, Rice, UTSA
First Outright: Tulsa
Former: SMU, Wichita State, Temple

Atlantic 10 (A-10)

Clinched: Richmond Flyers and Loyola Chicago Ramblers

The Flyers and Ramblers both win their first A-10 championship.

Repeat: Virginia Commonwealth
First Title: Richmond, Loyola Chicago, George Mason, Fordham, La Salle
First Outright: Duquesne
Former: Dayton, Massachusetts, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Rhode Island, Davidson, George Washington, Saint Louis

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

Clinched: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Thie is the Colonels' first ASUN title, and their first in any conference since their 1979 Ohio Valley Conference crown.

Repeat: Kennesaw State, Liberty (to CUSA)
First Title: Eastern Kentucky, Stetson, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Queens, Central Arkansas, Bellarmine
First Outright: Lipscomb
Former: North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, Jacksonville (FL)

Atlantic Coast (ACC)

Clinched: North Carolina Tar Heels

This is the Tar Heels' 32nd ACC title, including 23 outright. It ends the longest drought ever for North Carolina of six seasons without an ACC trophy from 2018 through 2023.

Repeat: Virginia, Miami (FL)
First Title: Pitt, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, Louisville
Former: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Georgia Tech

Big 12 (XII)

Clinched: Houston Cougars

Cougars win the Big XII title in their first season. Houston has now won regular season titles in four conference - Missouri Valley, Southwest, American, and Big XII. They did not win a CUSA regular season title, but did have a tournament championship.

3-peat: Kansas
First Title: Houston, TCU, BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida, West Virginia
First Outright: Oklahoma, Kansas State
Former: Iowa State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma State

Big East

Clinched: UConn Huskies

This is the Huskies' first title since their return to the Big East. Overall, UConn has nine Big East titles, four outright, two shared, and three divisional. The Huskies' last outright title was in 1999.

Repeat: Marquette
First Title: Butler, DePaul
First Outright Title: Creighton
First Since Return to Big East: UConn
Former: Seton Hall, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. Johns, Georgetown

Big Sky

Clinched: Eastern Washington Eagles

This is the Eagles' sixth Big Sky title, fifth outright, and second consecutive. I wonder whether Eastern Washington's proximity to Gonzaga (19 miles) has caused the Eagles to step up their game. A curiosity is that Gonzaga was a Big Sky member until 1980 when they moved to the West Coast Conference.

Repeat: Eastern Washington
First Title: Sacramento State
Former: Montana, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Montana State, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, Idaho

Big South

Clinched: High Point Panthers

This is the Panthers' third title, and first outright. They had a shared title in 2016, and a divisional title in 2014.

Repeat: UNC Asheville
First Title: Gardner-Webb, SC Upstate, Presbyterian
First Outright: High Point
Former: Winthrop, Longwood, Charleston Southern, Radford

Big Ten (B1G)

Clinched: Purdue Boilermakers

This is Purdue's 25th Big Ten title, 13th outright and second consecutive.

Repeat: Purdue
First Title: Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State
First Outright: Maryland
Former: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Minnesota, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan

Big West

Clinched: UC Irvine Anteaters

This is the Anteaters' 8th title, 6th outright, and repeat (last year's title was shared with UCSB)

Repeat: UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara
First Title: UC San Diego, UC Riverside, Cal State Bakersfield, Cal Poly
First Outright: Hawai'i, Cal State Fullerton
Former: UC Davis, Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge

Conference USA (CUSA)

Clinched: Sam Houston Bearkats

Bearkats win the title in their first try.

No Title Defender: Florida Atlantic to AAC
First Title: Sam Houston, Liberty, Jacksonville State (AL), New Mexico State, Florida International
First Outright: Western Kentucky
Former: Louisiana Tech, UTEP, Middle Tennessee

Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

Clinched: Charleston Cougars

The Cougars clinch the first ever Coastal Athletic Association title. This is Charleston's third CAA title, first outright, and second consecutive. Charleston shared the Colonial Athletic Association title with Hofstra last season.

Repeat: Charleston, Hofstra
First Title: Monmouth, Stony Brook, Campbell, Elon, North Carolina A&T, Hampton
First Outright: Charleston, Towson
Former: UNC Wilmington, Drexel, Delaware, Northeastern, William & Mary

Horizon League

Clinched: Oakland Golden Grizzlies

The Golden Grizzlies clinch their first outright title in the Horizon League, and first since moving over from the Summit League. Oakland shared the Horizon League title in 2017.

Repeat: Youngstown State
First Title: Robert Morris, IUPUI
First Outright: Oakland, Cleveland State, Fort Wayne
Former: Green Bay, Wright State, Northern Kentucky, Milwaukee, Detroit Mercy

Ivy League

Clinched: Princeton Tigers

This is the Tigers' 33rd Ivy League title, including 31 outright. They repeat as title-holder. The 2023 title was shared with Yale.

Repeat: Princeton, Yale
All Ivy League schools have a conference title
Former: Cornell, Harvard, Columbia, Brown, Penn, Dartmouth

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)

Clinched: Quinnipiac Bobcats

This is the Bobcats' first MAAC title, and first conference title since a share of the NEC in 2010.

Repeat: Iona
First Title: Quinnipiac, Mount St. Mary's
First Outright: Rider
Former: Fairfield, St. Peter's, Marist, Niagara, Canisius, Siena, Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

Clinched: Toledo Rockets

This is the Rockets' 17th MAC title, including 7th outright, one shared, 5 Western Division, and four Western Division shared. Toledo is riding a 12-title streak where they had at least a share of a division title, and failed to secure an AQ to the NCAA tournament.

4-peat: Toledo
All MAC schools have at least a shared or divisional title.
First Outright: Akron, Kent State, Northern Illinois, Buffalo
Former: Ohio, Central Michigan, Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Western Michigan, Ball State, Eastern Michigan

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

Clinched: Norfolk State Spartans

This is the Spartans' fifth title, including four outright.

Repeat: Howard
All MEAC schools have an outright title.
Former: :basketball Norfolk State, South Carolina State, North Carolina Central, Morgan State, Delaware State, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Coppin State

Mountain West (MW)

Clinched: Utah State Aggies

This is the Aggies' first outright Mountain West title, and second overall.

Repeat: San Diego State
First Title: Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State
First Outright: Utah State, UNLV
Former: Nevada, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Air Force

Missouri Valley (MVC)

Clinched: Indiana State Sycamores

This is the Sycamores' third Valley title, and first since 2000.

Repeat: Bradley
First Title: Belmont, Murray State, Illinois-Chicago, Valparaiso
Former: Indiana State, Drake, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Illinois State, Evansville

Northeast Conference (NEC)

Clinched: Central Connecticut Blue Devils and Merrimack Warriors

The Blue Devils and Warriors share the title. The two split their league games, but Central Connecticut secures the top seed in the NEC tournament by virtue of their sweep of the third-placed Sacred Heart. This is the fourth title for the Blue Devils, and first since 2007. Merrimack repeats as regular season champion, with last year's being outright.

Merrimack also won last year's tournament championship, but were not eligible for the NCAA Tournament as they completed their fourth and last season of provisional DI membership. Fairleigh Dickinson went in their stead, and we (or at least Purdue) know what happened to them.

Repeat: Merrimack
First Title: Le Moyne, Sacred Heart, Stonehill
First Outright: St. Francis (PA)
Former: Central Connecticut, Fairleigh Dickinson, Wagner, Long Island University

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

Clinched: Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles

Little Rock Trojans, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks, and Morehead State Eagles share the 2024 regular season championship. This is the fourth OVC tri-championship. Morehead State was also a participant in the other three-way ties in 1956, 1961, and 1972.

Little Rock secures their first OVC title in their second year in the conference. They were the 2020 Sun Belt champion. The Trojans gain the #1 seed in the conference tournament based on their 2-1 record against the other two teams. This gives them a double bye.

Tennessee-Martin gains their fourth OVC title. The Skyhawks had an outright title in 2009, and divisional titles in 2016 and 2017. The Skyhawks have the #2 seed based on a 2-2 record against the other two teams. If Tennessee-Martin wins the conference tournament, this will be their first NCAA Tournament after 30 seasons in DI.

Morehead State repeats as OVC champion. This is the Eagles' 11th OVC title, including five co-championships, four tri-championships, and two outright in 1984 and 2023.

Repeat: Morehead State
First Title: Little Rock, Western Illinois, SIUE, Eastern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Lindenwood
First Outright: Southeast Missouri
Former: Tennessee-Martin, Tennessee State, Tennessee Tech

Pacific Athletic Conference (PAC-12)

Clinched: Arizona Wildcats

This is the Wildcats' 18th title, including 15 outright. Since their first PAC-12 title in 1986, Arizona has finished atop the standings 18 of 39 seasons.

Repeat: UCLA
First Title: Colorado, Utah, Arizona State
Former: Arizona, Washington State, Oregon, Calfornia, Stanford, Washington, Southern Cal, Arizona State

Patriot League

Clinched: Colgate Raiders

This is the Raiders 6th consecutive title, and 5th consecutive outright. Colgate has five outright titles, all in the current streak, and four shared titles.

Repeat: Colgate
First Title: Army, Loyola Maryland
Former: Lafayette, American, Bucknell, Lehigh, Boston University, Navy, Holy Cross

Southeastern Conference (SEC)

Clinched: Tennessee Volunteers

This is the Volunteers' 14th title of any kind. It is their fifth outright title and first since 1967. They also have five shared titles, three divisional titles, and two shared divisional titles.

Repeat: Alabama
First Title: Missouri
First Outright: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas
Former: Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi State, LSU, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Southern Conference (SoCon)

Clinched: Samford Bulldogs

This is the Bulldogs' second title, and first outright. Last year's title was shared with Furman.

Repeat: Samford, Furman
First Title: Western Carolina, Mercer, The Citadel
First Outright: Samford
Former: UNC Greensboro, Chattanooga, Wofford, East Tennessee State, VMI

Southland

Clinched: McNeese Cowboys

This is the Cowboys' seventh title, and fourth outright. Their last title was an Eastern Division championship in 2011.

3-peat: A&M Corpus Christi
First Title: Houston Christian, Texas A&M-Commerce, Incarnate Word
First Outright: Southeast Louisiana
Former: McNeese State, Nicholls, Lamar, Northwestern State, New Orleans

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

Clinched: Grambling Tigers

This is the 12th SWAC title for the Tigers, including eight outright. They shared the title with Alcorn State last season.

Repeat: Grambling (2nd), Alcorn State (3rd)
First Title: Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M
First Outright: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Former: Southern, Texas Southern, Jackson State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M, Mississippi Valley State

Summit League

Clinched: South Dakota State Jackrabbits

This is the Jackrabbits' eighth title, and fifth outright. SDSU has won or shared six of the last seven Summit League titles, missing only 2023.

Repeat: Oral Roberts
First Title: North Dakota, Kansas City, St. Thomas, Omaha, Denver, South Dakota
Former: South Dakota State, North Dakota State

Sun Belt Conference

Clinched: Appalachian State Mountaineers

This is the Mountaineers' first Sun Belt title, and their first outright title anywhere since their 1979 SoCon title. The Mountaineers also had a shared 1981 title, and a 2010 North Division crown.

Repeat: Southern Miss.
First Title: Appalachian State, James Madison, Marshall, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina
First Outright: Troy, Arkansas State, Louisiana Monroe
First Since Return: Old Dominions
Former: Louisiana, Georgia State, South Alabama, Texas State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

Clinched: Grand Canyon Lopes

This is the Lopes' second WAC title.

Repeat: Utah Valley
First Title: Tarleton Stat, UT-Arlington, Cal Baptist, Utah Tech, Abilene Christian, Southern Utah, UTRGV
First Outright: Seattle, Stephen F. Austin
Former: Grand Canyon

West Coast Conference (WCC)

Clinched: St. Mary's Gaels

This is the Gaels' ninth title, fourth outright, and second consecutive. St. Mary's and Gonzaga shared the title in 2023. Gonzaga had a skein of 11 full or shared titles broken, and had won or shared 16 of 20 since their first in 1994.

Repeat: St. Mary's (2nd), Gonzaga (12th)
First Title: Portland
First Since Return: San Francisco
Former: Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola Marymount, Pepperdine, Pacific

March 7, 2024 update

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

Twelve Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) Eliminated, first round.
84 The Citadel (SoCon) 0.4%, #9
84 William & Mary (CAA) 0.04%, #13
70 Maine (Am E) 1.8%, #6
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.8%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 5.1%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson (ASUN) 66.6%, #2
45 Grambling (SWAC) 13.5%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 7.1%, #6
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.6%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) 10.8%, #4
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) 12.9%, #2
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 0.6%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) 13.3%, #3
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) 2.9%, #8, 67.0% chance of making conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 17.6%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) 0.1%, #11
23 High Point (Big South) 38.7%, #1
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) 0.0%, eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.5%, #7
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) 10.5%, #2
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 2.0%, #6
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) 2.1%, #10
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) 0.5%, #9
8 Omaha (Summit) 6.4%, #6
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 24.2%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.1%, #8, 89% chance of making conference tournament
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) 39.1%, #2

Ranked by Probability

66.6% Stetson (ASUN) (51), #2
39.1% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
38.7% High Point (Big South) (23), #1
24.8% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
17.6% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
13.5% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
13.3% Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #3
12.9% Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2
10.8% Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4
10.5% Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2
7.1% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #6
6.4% Omaha (Summit) (8), #6
5.1% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
2.9% Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24), #8, 80% chance of making conference tournament
2.8% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
2.1% Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6
2.0% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #6
1.8% Maine (Am E) (70), #6
1.6% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.5% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #7
1.1% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #8
0.6% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
0.5% South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9
0.4% The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9
0.1% Elon (CAA) (23), #11
0.04% William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13


Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #9 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.84 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

0 2.5%
1 13.0%
2 26.2%
3 28.6%
4 19.0%
5 8.0%
6 2.2%
7 0.4%

March 8, 2024 update

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

Twelve Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round.
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) 0.04%, #13
70 Maine (Am E) 1.8%, #6
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.8%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 5.2%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson (ASUN) 66.6%, #2
45 Grambling (SWAC) 13.5%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 7.1%, #6
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.6%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC)[/u] eliminated semifinal
[s]38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) 12.8%, #2
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 0.6%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) 2.9%, #8, 67.0% chance of making conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 17.6%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) 0.1%, #11
23 High Point (Big South) 51.2%, #1
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.5%, #7
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) 10.5%, #2
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 2.0%, #6
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) 6.3%, #6
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 24.2%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.1%, #8, 89% chance of making conference tournament
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) 39.1%, #2

Ranked by Probability

66.6% Stetson (ASUN) (51), #2
51.2% High Point (Big South) (23), #1
39.1% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
24.8% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
17.6% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
13.5% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
12.8% Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2
10.5% Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2
7.1% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #6
6.3% Omaha (Summit) (8), #6
5.2% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
2.9% Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24), #8, 80% chance of making conference tournament
2.8% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
2.0% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #6
1.8% Maine (Am E) (70), #6
1.6% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.5% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8
1.1% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #8
0.6% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
0.1% Elon (CAA) (23), #11
0.04% William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13

The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.69 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

0 2.8%
1 14.3%
2 28.5%
3 29.3%
4 17.4%
5 6.2%
6 1.3%
7 0.2%

March 9, 2024 update

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

23 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.7%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 11.5%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson (ASUN) 66.6%, #2
45 Grambling (SWAC) 12.6%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 6.9%, #6
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.5%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 1.2%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 19.8%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.6%, #7
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) 9.9%, #2
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 1.9%, #5
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) 6.8%, #6
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 23.6%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.0%, #8
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) 74.3%, #2

Ranked by Probability

74.3% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
66.6% Stetson (ASUN) (51), #2
23.6% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
17.6% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
12.6% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
11.5% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
9.9% Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2
6.9% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #6
6.8% Omaha (Summit) (8), #6
2.7% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
1.9% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #6
1.6% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #8
1.5% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.2% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
1.0% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8

Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.42 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

0 2.8%
1 17.1%
2 35.0%
3 29.3%
4 12.4%
5 2.9%
6 0.4%

March 10, 2024 update

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

24 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.7%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 12.0%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson Hatters ASUN Champion
45 Grambling (SWAC) 12.6%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 6.9%, #6
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.5%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 7.2%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 19.8%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.6%, #7
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) eliminated quarterfinal
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 1.9%, #5
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) 14.3%, #6
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 23.6%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.0%, #8
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) 74.3%, #2

Ranked by Probability

Stetson Hatters (51) ASUN Champion

74.3% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
23.6% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
17.6% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
14.3% Omaha (Summit) (8), #6
12.6% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
12.0% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
7.2% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
6.9% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #6
2.7% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
1.9% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #6
1.6% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #8
1.5% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.0% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8

Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.79 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

1 7.9%
2 33.3%
3 36.1%
4 17.6%
5 4.4%
6 0.6%

March 11, 2024 update

Stetson Hatters (ASUN) have qualified for the NCAA tournament for the first time in 52 attempts.

12 still have a chance to qualify, with five seeing action Tuesday night. Merrimack (NEC) and Denver (Summit) can win their first tournament bid. Merrimack would qualify in their first opportunity after completing their transition to DI. Denver was eligible for the first tournament in 1938, but dropped down to DII for 18 years between 1981 and 1998.

UMass Lowell and New Hampshire could clinch a first time AQ for the America East if both win their semifinal game. Sacramento State the #10 seed in the Big Sky could also reach the championship game with a win.

Tournament action for six other teams begins on Wednesday: UC-Riverside (Big West), Quinnipiac (MAAC), Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC), Grambling (SWAC), Cal Baptist (WAC), and Utah Valley (WAC). Quinnipiac and Grambling are the top seeds in their respective conferences.

Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) is the final team to get into action on Thursday. They start the day after Grambling as the SWAC splits their quarterfinal action over two days.

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) 2.7%, #4
66 Denver (Summit) 23.9%, #7
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson Hatters ASUN Champion
45 Grambling (SWAC) 12.7%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 6.9%, #5
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.5%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) 10.3%, #10
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 19.9%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.6%, #5
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) eliminated quarterfinal
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 1.9%, #5
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) eliminated semifinal
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 23.6%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.0%, #8
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) 74.4%, #2

Ranked by Probability

Stetson Hatters (51) ASUN Champion

74.4% Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2
23.9% Denver (Summit) (66), #7
23.6% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
19.9% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
12.7% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
10.3% Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10
6.9% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #5
2.7% New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4
1.9% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #5
1.6% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #5
1.5% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.0% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8

25 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season.

Omaha (Summit) (8), #6 eliminated semifinal
Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.80 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

1 7.8%
2 33.1%
3 36.0%
4 17.8%
5 4.6%
6 0.7%