(11-05-2023 12:12 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  Top to Bottom, this is a hellofa conference . . . . And on any given day, anyone is capable of beating anyone else . . ..

This

Exactly why I’m glad JMU plays UCONN this week and can hopefully get to 10 wins before having to end the year with both App and Coastal. Gonna be a stressful run through thanksgiving.

Competing to be the best G5:
1. James Madison - Stomped GA ST. (1)
2. Troy - Stomped USA. (2)
3. Coastal Carolina - Just keep winning. (4)

Just short of tier 1:
4. Texas State - Took out my #3 by 3 TDs. (8)
5. Georgia Southern - TX ST handled them. (3)
6. Georgia State - Two game losing streak. (5)

Inconsistent or consistent but middling. Still could be bowl teams:
7. Arkansas State - Biggest upset of the week, blowing out UL. Good chance at 7 wins now. (11)
8. Louisiana - stAte had no issues beating them. (6)
9. ODU - Gave (insert opponent) a good game. (9)
10. South Alabama - Stomped two weeks in a row. (7)
11. Appalachian State - Way better than Marshall. Don't like dropping them after wins. Almost put USA here. (10)

Dregs of the conference:
12. Southern Miss - We won a game! I can safely put us ahead of Marshall, since we don't play them :) (14)
13. Marshall - Dropped their last five games. Would they beat ULM if they played next weekend? (12)
14. Louisiana Monroe - Army was likely their sole FBS win. (13)

Well after week 10 I find I must re-arrange most of the deck chairs on the SS JMU.

1. JMU (LW 1)
2. Troy (LW 2)
3. Coastal (LW4) - Winning against a pesky ODU with your 3rd string QB...Impressive!
4. Texas St (LW 7)
5. stAte (LW 8) - steadily gaining in my weekly rankings
6. GS (LW 3)
7. Louisiana (LW 5)
8. GSU (LW 6)
9. App (LW 10)
10. ODU (LW 9)
11. USA (LW 11)
12. Marshall (LW 12)
13. USM (LW 14)
14. ULM (LW 13)

1) James Madison
---
2) Troy
----
3) Coastal Carolina
4) Georgia Southern
5) Georgia State
6) Texas State
---
7) Appalachian State
8) South Alabama
9) Louisiana
10) Arkansas State
---
11) Marshall
12) Old Dominion
---
13) Southern Miss
14) ULM
15) East Carolina

Computer rankings, incoming mad TXST fans in 3... 2...

(11-05-2023 11:56 AM)Klak Wrote:  1) James Madison
---
2) Troy
----
3) Coastal Carolina
4) Georgia Southern
5) Georgia State
6) Texas State
---
7) Appalachian State
8) South Alabama
9) Louisiana
10) Arkansas State
---
11) Marshall
12) Old Dominion
---
13) Southern Miss
14) ULM
15) East Carolina

Computer rankings, incoming mad TXST fans in 3... 2...

(11-05-2023 12:16 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 11:56 AM)Klak Wrote:  1) James Madison
---
2) Troy
----
3) Coastal Carolina
4) Georgia Southern
5) Georgia State
6) Texas State
---
7) Appalachian State
8) South Alabama
9) Louisiana
10) Arkansas State
---
11) Marshall
12) Old Dominion
---
13) Southern Miss
14) ULM
15) East Carolina

Computer rankings, incoming mad TXST fans in 3... 2...

Computer rankings. Models take time to catch up, and can't always account for A beat B who beat C who beat A. We live in a paper rock scissors SBC.

(11-05-2023 12:18 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Computer rankings. Models take time to catch up, and can't always account for A beat B who beat C who beat A. We live in a paper rock scissors SBC.

Gotcha

(11-05-2023 12:18 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 12:16 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 11:56 AM)Klak Wrote:  1) James Madison
---
2) Troy
----
3) Coastal Carolina
4) Georgia Southern
5) Georgia State
6) Texas State
---
7) Appalachian State
8) South Alabama
9) Louisiana
10) Arkansas State
---
11) Marshall
12) Old Dominion
---
13) Southern Miss
14) ULM
15) East Carolina

Computer rankings, incoming mad TXST fans in 3... 2...

Computer rankings. Models take time to catch up, and can't always account for A beat B who beat C who beat A. We live in a paper rock scissors SBC.

Coastal lost to GS and GSU and is ahead of both. It sounds counterintuitive but head-to-head is honestly one of the worst indicators for rankings.

If Team A and Team B are both 6-2, but Team A beat Team B, that means Team A has 2 other losses that may or may not be worse than Team B's 2 losses.

And computers don't have recency bias unless it's built into the model. Mine does not, so blowout losses to OU, Memphis, and Troy aren't forgotten just because you beat Louisiana.

It's not a perfect model. None of them are. It's simply a resume ranking, and stAte just got their first win over a team with more than 3 wins.

(11-05-2023 12:12 AM)Bobcat87 Wrote:  Top to Bottom, this is a hellofa conference . . . . And on any given day, anyone is capable of beating anyone else . . ..

The bottom of this conference disagrees.

(11-05-2023 01:22 PM)Klak Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 12:18 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 12:16 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 11:56 AM)Klak Wrote:  1) James Madison
---
2) Troy
----
3) Coastal Carolina
4) Georgia Southern
5) Georgia State
6) Texas State
---
7) Appalachian State
8) South Alabama
9) Louisiana
10) Arkansas State
---
11) Marshall
12) Old Dominion
---
13) Southern Miss
14) ULM
15) East Carolina

Computer rankings, incoming mad TXST fans in 3... 2...

Computer rankings. Models take time to catch up, and can't always account for A beat B who beat C who beat A. We live in a paper rock scissors SBC.

Coastal lost to GS and GSU and is ahead of both. It sounds counterintuitive but head-to-head is honestly one of the worst indicators for rankings.

If Team A and Team B are both 6-2, but Team A beat Team B, that means Team A has 2 other losses that may or may not be worse than Team B's 2 losses.

And computers don't have recency bias unless it's built into the model. Mine does not, so blowout losses to OU, Memphis, and Troy aren't forgotten just because you beat Louisiana.

It's not a perfect model. None of them are. It's simply a resume ranking, and stAte just got their first win over a team with more than 3 wins.

If head to head doesn’t count…why play the games? Why do conferences use it as a tie-breaker? I get your theory but it really doesn’t work perfectly the way you are insinuating…especially if the victory occurred yesterday.

(11-05-2023 08:40 AM)Luckyshot Wrote:  We're not last! We're not last! We're not last!

I don’t know. There’s still a chance.

(11-05-2023 04:19 PM)JSinLR Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 01:22 PM)Klak Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 12:18 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 12:16 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  

(11-05-2023 11:56 AM)Klak Wrote:  1) James Madison
---
2) Troy
----
3) Coastal Carolina
4) Georgia Southern
5) Georgia State
6) Texas State
---
7) Appalachian State
8) South Alabama
9) Louisiana
10) Arkansas State
---
11) Marshall
12) Old Dominion
---
13) Southern Miss
14) ULM
15) East Carolina

Computer rankings, incoming mad TXST fans in 3... 2...

Computer rankings. Models take time to catch up, and can't always account for A beat B who beat C who beat A. We live in a paper rock scissors SBC.

Coastal lost to GS and GSU and is ahead of both. It sounds counterintuitive but head-to-head is honestly one of the worst indicators for rankings.

If Team A and Team B are both 6-2, but Team A beat Team B, that means Team A has 2 other losses that may or may not be worse than Team B's 2 losses.

And computers don't have recency bias unless it's built into the model. Mine does not, so blowout losses to OU, Memphis, and Troy aren't forgotten just because you beat Louisiana.

It's not a perfect model. None of them are. It's simply a resume ranking, and stAte just got their first win over a team with more than 3 wins.

If head to head doesn’t count…why play the games? Why do conferences use it as a tie-breaker? I get your theory but it really doesn’t work perfectly the way you are insinuating…especially if the victory occurred yesterday.

The head to head game does count, but power ratings are meant to be forward facing. If you have a really good game that is much better than how you normally perform, the model, or any rational human, can't expect that to be the norm moving forward.

What you're thinking of is a performance rating for a single game.

1. JMU: Really there's no question here
2. Troy: Only loss in league is to JMU by 2 points
3. CCU: Maybe Grayson McCall was the problem...
4. Texas State. I don't think anyone wants the 4th spot, but Bobcats get it this week.
5. Georgia Southern 2nd East team to lose to a West team this year
6. Georgia State The other East team that lost to a West team
7. South Alabama They've been inconsistent, but this is the same team that beat OK State
8. Arkansas State. Louisiana State Champions 2023!
9. Old Dominion They've been right there most games, just can't get over the hump.
10. App State Either Marshall just sucks or App is improving.
11. Louisiana They've beaten Texas State, South Alabama, Buffalo, UAB, and lost to AState by 20...strange
12. Southern Miss Yes...I rank USM here. Really I'd be better off ranking just Frank Gore here, but all the same.
13. Marshall Hard to put a finger on what happened to the Herd
14. ULM: They've taken some excruciating losses this year and look as if they have given up.