Seeing chatter in the Big 12 schedule thread about how the newbies shouldn't have a say in the schedule (which is wrong, IMHO).

Which group would make a better standalone conference (and one that could attract other teams?

Leftovers: TCU, TT, Baylor, Okla State, Kansas, KS State, Iowa State and West Virginia

Newbies: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Houston, Cincy and UCF

The advantage goes to the leftovers.

Better Geography
More Tradition
Better Viewership (with Coach Prime being the exception)

UCF has been humbled by the Big 12 since we have started conference play 0-5, relegated to FS1 with 350k viewership.

We are working on recruiting and hope to be up to the Big 12 standard soon. The gap between being a top G5 program and an average P5 team was wider than I originally thought.

I would give the "left behinds" a slight advantage.

(11-02-2023 04:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Seeing chatter in the Big 12 schedule thread about how the newbies shouldn't have a say in the schedule (which is wrong, IMHO).

Which group would make a better standalone conference (and one that could attract other teams?

Leftovers: TCU, TT, Baylor, Okla State, Kansas, KS State, Iowa State and West Virginia

Newbies: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Houston, Cincy and UCF

I'd go with the leftovers because they've all been playing each other since 1996, with the notable exceptions of TCU and West Virginia.

Playoff Appearances
Old: 1 (TCU)
New: 1 (Cincinnati)

Football national championships by AP & Coaches Polls
Old: 1 by 1 school (1 TCU)
New: 2 by 2 schools (1 BYU, 1 Colorado)

Football national championships by all major selectors
Old: 5 by 2 schools (3 TCU, 2 Oklahoma State)
New: 5 by 4 schools (2 Arizona State, 1 BYU, 1 Colorado, 1 Utah)



NCAA basketball championships:
Old: 7 (4 Kansas, 2 OSU, 1 Baylor)
New: 4 (2 Cincinnati, 1 Arizona, 1 Utah)

NCAA basketball Final Fours:
Old: 33 by 7 schools (16 Kansas, 6 Oklahoma State, 4 Kansas State, 3 Baylor, 2 West Virginia, 1 Texas Tech, 1 Iowa State)
New: 22 by 5 schools (6 Cincinnati, 6 Houston, 4 Arizona, 4 Utah, 2 Colorado)[u]

If you're just judging by the schools rather than geography, it's obviously the new teams.

They're bigger schools and are mostly located in bigger regions/cities. The very biggest Old 8 school (Texas Tech) has a LOT fewer students (40,000) than 5 of the newbies (ASU, UCF, UC, Houston, and Arizona).

The old 8 include 5 very rural schools (WVU, KSU, ISU, TT) and 2 small private schools (TCU, Baylor) with tiny alumni bases.

The New 8 are also superior academically and are superior research universities (although the average endowment size is almost identical).


However 7 of the old 8 are very tightly knit by geography, history, and mission. This gives them a big advantage.

(11-02-2023 05:16 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  If you're just judging by the schools rather than geography, it's obviously the new teams.

They're bigger schools and are mostly located in bigger regions/cities. The very biggest Old 8 school (Texas Tech) has a LOT fewer students (40,000) than 5 of the newbies (ASU, UCF, UC, Houston, and Arizona).

The old 8 include 5 very rural schools (WVU, KSU, ISU, TT) and 2 small private schools (TCU, Baylor) with tiny alumni bases.

The New 8 are also superior academically and are superior research universities (although the average endowment size is almost identical).

However 7 of the old 8 are very tightly knit by geography, history, and mission. This gives them a big advantage.

bolded - Which could be an indication why those don't seem to get much traction on this forum for possible invites to the SEC or Big10...

Besides Kansas, that leaves OK State. I wonder if anyone's done a work-up of the possibility for them to the SEC.

And with that in mind, to the OP's question, the new schools plus Kansas and OK State would seem to be the "stronger" conference.

(11-02-2023 05:16 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  If you're just judging by the schools rather than geography, it's obviously the new teams.

They're bigger schools and are mostly located in bigger regions/cities. The very biggest Old 8 school (Texas Tech) has a LOT fewer students (40,000) than 5 of the newbies (ASU, UCF, UC, Houston, and Arizona).

The old 8 include 5 very rural schools (WVU, KSU, ISU, TT) and 2 small private schools (TCU, Baylor) with tiny alumni bases.

The New 8 are also superior academically and are superior research universities (although the average endowment size is almost identical).


However 7 of the old 8 are very tightly knit by geography, history, and mission. This gives them a big advantage.

Undergrad wise, BYU is almost as big as TTU as well, with Colorado not far behind

If you count Texas as a wash, the population of the new vs old is about 4.5x

I think this thread is an interesting thought exercise, and I also think that the fact that there is no clear cut answer is great for the Big 12. No worries about anybody leeching off of the "big schools", and also no worries of any "big schools" eyeballing the P2. Things will change over time I'm sure, and there will be discontent, but for now they're in a great position as a conference. The only schools that are some level of "unhappy" to be there today are Utah and ASU, and their concerns are more Academic than Athletic.

(11-02-2023 05:57 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I think this thread is an interesting thought exercise, and I also think that the fact that there is no clear cut answer is great for the Big 12. No worries about anybody leeching off of the "big schools", and also no worries of any "big schools" eyeballing the P2. Things will change over time I'm sure, and there will be discontent, but for now they're in a great position as a conference. The only schools that are some level of "unhappy" to be there today are Utah and ASU, and their concerns are more Academic than Athletic.

Good point - another interesting ranking would be "likelihood of being poached by the P2"

Of the Left behinds, you have Kansas as the only real possibility
Of the newbies, the 4C schools (not all, but maybe one or two) could merit consideration in the future.

Noobs

This is also a fun thought experiment when viewing this from a basketball conference perspective.

(11-02-2023 06:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Noobs

Agree

(11-02-2023 04:53 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 04:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Seeing chatter in the Big 12 schedule thread about how the newbies shouldn't have a say in the schedule (which is wrong, IMHO).

Which group would make a better standalone conference (and one that could attract other teams?

Leftovers: TCU, TT, Baylor, Okla State, Kansas, KS State, Iowa State and West Virginia

Newbies: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Houston, Cincy and UCF

I'd go with the leftovers because they've all been playing each other since 1996, with the notable exceptions of TCU and West Virginia.

Actually, the Big XII left-behinds have, as a group, played since 1996, but some first played in the 1890s. Some Big 8 teams played one another since leaving the MVIAA for the Big 6 in, iirc, 1907. Long traditions busted up.

(11-03-2023 12:33 AM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 04:53 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 04:07 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Seeing chatter in the Big 12 schedule thread about how the newbies shouldn't have a say in the schedule (which is wrong, IMHO).

Which group would make a better standalone conference (and one that could attract other teams?

Leftovers: TCU, TT, Baylor, Okla State, Kansas, KS State, Iowa State and West Virginia

Newbies: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, BYU, Colorado, Houston, Cincy and UCF

I'd go with the leftovers because they've all been playing each other since 1996, with the notable exceptions of TCU and West Virginia.

Actually, the Big XII left-behinds have, as a group, played since 1996, but some first played in the 1890s. Some Big 8 teams played one another since leaving the MVIAA for the Big 6 in, iirc, 1907. Long traditions busted up.

And Texas and Oklahoma left them behind for a reason...

Left behinds have all the advantages of recruiting Texas and Oklahoma with H.S.coaches The Newbies won’t have that advantage nor Will California be there since They overlooked Cal & Stanford as conference members. Advantage B1G,SEC,ACC

(11-03-2023 08:02 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  Left behinds have all the advantages of recruiting Texas and Oklahoma with H.S.coaches The Newbies won’t have that advantage nor Will California be there since They overlooked Cal & Stanford as conference members. Advantage B1G,SEC,ACC

Cal and Stanford were more of a risk than a benefit.

Left behind by whom? And new to whom?

The dynamics are weird and who knows how they’ll play out prior to the next spin of the realignment wheel.

Houston seems to have the attitude of being back home in the SWC and pretending they never knew UC or UCF.

TCU seem happier about hooking up with old MWC foes than missing out on not playing Big8 teams. I still see TCU as a true rival, and that’s pretty mutual.

Arizona and Arizona State seem largely ambivalent while Colorado seems to have no interest in either its former B8 or P12 opponents.

Where the center of gravity of the conference moves will depend on who is successful in the next 5 years. I think if KU and AZ can hold onto their staffs that could be a big rivalry across both sports. TCU-Utah could hit its former MWC intensity very quickly if both are good. Colorado is a complete wildcard and Deion-led CU and BYU are just easy to hate which will make them important if they win.