(11-02-2023 04:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 03:55 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 01:13 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 12:52 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ABC/ESPN: SEC

FOX/CBS/NBC: B1G

Let's divvy up the ACC in time for the 2026 season and move forward: ND and Miami to the B1G; FSU, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, UVA, VT, Duke and GT to the SEC

No reason not to have (at least) three great/very good TV matchups from each conference every Saturday

Yes. I did learn one thing I didn't already know from this article. ABC can air up to 3 games a week. I knew two were in the offing. Three games gets back to what I have stated about realignment already, the final number of schools in the conference will be tailored to the inventory demands of the networks.

If ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPN U all have three each that's 12 games. If the SECN has 2 that's 14 games that ESPN needs on Saturday. The Big 12's best will fill some of those slots, but if you are going to put two dogs on the SECN you only have 10 other conference games from which to fill the key positions and maximize viewership and advertising money and the SEC will only have 8 games a week, even disregarding byes, with which to fill those slots. The inventory demands indicate a need for 12 games a week from which to select, and that means 24 schools. With the Big 12 inventory available ABC/ESPN may be able to get by with 10 games, but that means showing them all leaving very little for the SECN.

This, Pete, seems to indicate a conference size of at least 20, but more likely than many would like to think, 24. I believe Sankey has pushed back a bit on the eventual size and has spoken with Petitti about that as well as the Portal and NIL.

People argue all of the time that ESPN has what it wants and more cheaply by having the ACC, and in the same breath say that is now about viewership. The latter belies the former. I suspect that the Magnificent 7 is the group that wishes to stay together, and that ESPN wants. Again, split the cost of 5 to the Big 12 with FOX surrender 2 to FOX outright as you suggest, and the consolidation essentially pays for itself with minimal cost remaining. The exit fees cover the contractual difference for those leaving the ACC for the Big 12 where ESPN has 100 million less invested in them, 40 million less for Miami moving to the Big 10 and 15 million less for N.D. The 7 moving to the SEC would cost them 35 million each. The eventual cost would be around 90 million, but the scope of the SEC's advertising reach would be greater and the total number of viewers for prime-time conference games would go up. If that is their cost for monopolizing the region whatever the NET is between added revenue and the 90 million would be negligible.

If you placed the strongest representatives from the largest states from the ACC not already in the SEC's hands what does that do to viewership, and therefore advertising dollars? Do you want a smaller percentage x 2 or a larger percentage X 1? Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, N.C. State give ESPN the same control of those two mid-sized states they have now, but added to the SEC market reach, more money for every game because more eyes collectively will be following those games. Add Florida State and you carry the % of Florida you need to keep the highest rates there. Toss in Duke to please the presidents and augment Winter sports. Add Clemson for overall fit and attendance. Now the question is which remaining school adds the most value? The answer to that is not Georgia Tech. Kansas or Louisville? I'm thinking Kansas because it is AAU, adds a new market though smallish, but has a national reach in basketball.

Inventory requirements will decide conference sizes as consolidation continues. And growing the viewer base for the one consolidated conference will drive more revenue than the revenue from two smaller viewer bases occupying the same area.

Sir, those clouds did nothing to you.

Get ready, the event horizon nears. And that's if a a much larger one in the Middle East doesn't break first.

Study your Chinese curses. My favorite is a three-part curse which is one of the older ones:
1. May you live in interesting times.
2. May every desire of your heart come true.
3. May those in authority take notice of you.


Sounds good initially, but interesting times are always hard times because people are slow to adapt to change. If you get everything you desire it will destroy you. True wisdom is in recognizing the difference between needs and desires. Meeting needs supports you. Obtaining desires frequently cause you pain or harm. And those in authority stay in authority by eliminating threats to their power. And if you are noticed you are likely standing out for the wrong reasons.

My point to you is that the Big 12 was decapitated, the PAC 12 destroyed, and the SEC and Big 10 may yet grow again in numbers. ESPN invested a lot more into the SEC. Consolidation moves the more highly valued into a group of schools which are already highly valued. The revenue gap is real. What will come will happen whether in 2025 or 2036.

The greater sanity issue resides with those who think consolidation will not impact the ACC.

Notre Dame is separate issue, and they'll decide what is best for them. But they know what kinds of change are coming.

Nobody is screaming at the sky. But as usual we have oodles living in denial of what is as plain as a cloud in the sky, and that is the massive change the sport is currently undergoing and there are more significant changes to come, and that's beyond the consolidation.

This consolidation is a segregation by value of the remaining schools. It's not done.

It is definitely not done. We can argue about the timing obviously, but the final result is not in doubt. It's also very clear that SOME ACC schools add enough value to get into the P2. How many? 2? 10? My current guess is 4, but I could be easily talked into 2 or 6. 2 conveniently gets us to 18/18, and 6 gets us conveniently to 20/20, so one or the other of those might be more likely than 4. Our poll earlier this year came out to around 4.6, for what that's worth. My one issue with the ACC is that once we go beyond 4, it starts getting tough to differentiate between the best remaining ACC and best remaining Big 12 Brands. For example, we might end up with a 5-1 or 4-2 ACC/Big 12 split rather than just 6-0. That would be a terrible outcome for the Big 12, though if Colorado's ratings don't spike again next year then they'll still be defended by their "everyone has about the same value" defense.

(11-02-2023 03:05 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 02:45 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  Losing the SEC package and paying a premium for a package that does not include a Big 3 vs Big 3 game is a huge downgrade for CBS.

This ^^^

week 9: 5.95m Georgia vs UF - #1 for the week
week 8: 8.01m bama v Tennessee - #2
week 7: 4.38m A&M v Tennessee - #3
week 6: 7.23m A&M v Alabama - #2
week 5: 6.40m Georgia v Auburn - #2 behind only the Deions
week 4: 4.61m Ole Miss v Alabama- #4
week 3: 5.42m USC v Georgia - #2 behind another Deion game
week 2: 2.97m UNLV v Michigan - #5 - didn't choose an SEC game
week 1: 4.65m Oh St v Indiana - #3 - didn't choose SEC game

avg through 9 weeks: 5.51m viewers

I'm unsure what happened in weeks 1 and 2, but I did notice that there was not an SEC game at 3:30 on those days. Probably they just decided taht those B1G games were better than "SEC team vs Liberty" or whatever was on offer from the SEC.

What's going to happen to CBS's ratings when their 2nd or 3rd choice B1G game is going head to head with the 1st or 2nd choice SEC game every week? They could very well cut their 2023 ratings in half starting in 2024, and pay an extra $50m per year for the privilege of doing so. McManus can spin this all he wants, but he should have done what it took to keep the SEC.

I could be wrong but I believe that CBS' contract does not allow them to pick SEC games in weeks 1 and 2. Back when it was signed, they had the rights to some other sporting even that conflicted with weeks 1 and 2. They eventually lost those rights, but couldn't re-open discussions with the SEC to get week 1 and 2 games because then they wouldn't be able to keep that $55M/yr sweetheart deal.

(11-02-2023 11:12 PM)BeepBeepJeep Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 03:05 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 02:45 PM)Glenn360 Wrote:  Losing the SEC package and paying a premium for a package that does not include a Big 3 vs Big 3 game is a huge downgrade for CBS.

This ^^^

week 9: 5.95m Georgia vs UF - #1 for the week
week 8: 8.01m bama v Tennessee - #2
week 7: 4.38m A&M v Tennessee - #3
week 6: 7.23m A&M v Alabama - #2
week 5: 6.40m Georgia v Auburn - #2 behind only the Deions
week 4: 4.61m Ole Miss v Alabama- #4
week 3: 5.42m USC v Georgia - #2 behind another Deion game
week 2: 2.97m UNLV v Michigan - #5 - didn't choose an SEC game
week 1: 4.65m Oh St v Indiana - #3 - didn't choose SEC game

avg through 9 weeks: 5.51m viewers

I'm unsure what happened in weeks 1 and 2, but I did notice that there was not an SEC game at 3:30 on those days. Probably they just decided taht those B1G games were better than "SEC team vs Liberty" or whatever was on offer from the SEC.

What's going to happen to CBS's ratings when their 2nd or 3rd choice B1G game is going head to head with the 1st or 2nd choice SEC game every week? They could very well cut their 2023 ratings in half starting in 2024, and pay an extra $50m per year for the privilege of doing so. McManus can spin this all he wants, but he should have done what it took to keep the SEC.

I could be wrong but I believe that CBS' contract does not allow them to pick SEC games in weeks 1 and 2. Back when it was signed, they had the rights to some other sporting even that conflicted with weeks 1 and 2. They eventually lost those rights, but couldn't re-open discussions with the SEC to get week 1 and 2 games because then they wouldn't be able to keep that $55M/yr sweetheart deal.

US Open tennis and they lost the rights after 2014. It's why Texas-Alabama aired on ESPN this year.