Less than 3 weeks to opening day on 11/8, which also happens to be NLI signing day for basketball this year. Thought it would be time to post my scouting reports on our OOC opponents.

Recall UT's opponents are (listed by my guess on their strength):

Gonzaga
Michigan
SMU
Duke
JMU
NDSU
Cincinnati
Oakland
Loyola MD
Hillsdale

Will also get a 2nd Sun Belt opponent to be named later, which, if the seasons fall the way they are expected, could be JMU again.

James Madison @Harrisonburg, VA 7PM Nov 8

Conference: Sun Belt (Rank 18)
22-23 Record: 25-8; Lost in Round 1 of NCAA Tournament
22-23 NET: 101

All-Time UT Record: 1st Meeting

UT will open the season in the inaugural MAC-SBU Challenge, facing the SBC Champs, James Madison, who won the league with a 13-5 record, and also went on to win the conference tournament. A 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament, they lost to 3 seed Ohio State 80-66.

JMU's defense was their strong suit, holding opponents to just 61 points per game on 36% shooting (16th best in DI) and 29% from three (59th in DI). They play both zone and man defenses and are very physical. They were also one of the best rebounding teams in the nation - 11th in defensive boards, and 14th overall. On offense they scored 70, but on only 41% shooting. They got to the FT line often, taking almost 20 attempts per game. The Sun Belt was, overall, a weaker conference than the MAC, ranking 18th to the MAC's 14th and overall they played a weaker schedule than UT. JMU played one MAC team last year, demolishing EMU 72-43 in St. Joseph's Tournament in Philadelphia.

This year, their leading scorer, Kiki Jefferson, has transferred to Louisville, and their starting PG has graduated. They only return about 50% of overall production and have a lot to replace. Their top returning player is Russian 6'4 C Kseniia Kozlova who averaged 10 points, 5 rebounds and 3 blocks. (Recall the trouble UT had with another Russian big from MTSU. Interestingly, Kozlova also started out at MTSU, but transferred to JMU before UT played them.) They also return 6' G Peyton McDaniel who averaged 12 points and 4 rebounds and was far and away their best 3 point shooter, hitting at a 38% clip, attempting more than 6 per game. She's got a deep range and is streaky - went 7-7 from three in the SBC championship game. UT's defensive priority will be to control those players. Interesting stat is that no JMU player played more than 29 minutes per game last year and none of the returning players played more than 24.

JMU did well in the portal, adding three very experienced players from Ohio State, St Joe's and UVa. The most accomplished of those would appear to be 5'8 G Olivia Mullins from St. Joe's. She started 31 games for the Hawks, averaging 8 points, 4 boards and 3 assists. She would seem to be the heir apparent at PG. The other two players are big guards who were bit players at OSU and UVa, but are both are in their 5th years and so bring a lot of experience. There is a question as to whether OSU transfer Hevynne Bristow will be eligible to play immediately as it is her 2nd transfer. But either way, JMU will be the most experienced team UT will face this year, with an roster experience of 3.4. They also add a JUCO forward and one-time Buffalo-verbal-commit, freshman Jada Mills. Like pretty much every one of UT's OOC opponents, JMU is taller, with a roster average over 5'11, but that has not been an issue for UT in recent years for the most part.

One may expect a low scoring game with both teams being experienced defensive squads. UT will need to do well on the boards, and control their big Russian center better than they did in that 2022 WNIT quarters against MTSU. Given that JMU is adding a lot of new pieces, and UT has almost all their roster in tact, the advantage has to go to UT in the 1st game of the season. But JMU has the home court where they were 10-4 last year, which will help them. Perhaps freshman Ella Weaver, whose hometown is only about 30 miles from JMU, can bring a ton of fans to urge on the Rockets.

JMU was picked to finish 1st in the Sun Belt preseason poll. McDaniel & Kozlova both picked to be 2nd Team All-SBC.

Gonzaga @Spokane, WA, 5PM Nov 12

Conference: West Coast Conf (Rank 8)
22-23 Record: 28-5; NCAA Tournament, lost in 1st round
22-23 NET: 49

All-Time UT Record: 1st Meeting

Gonzaga owns their home court, going 15-0 in Spokane last year, and 64-4 the last 5 seasons. Those 4 losses were all to top competition: Stanford, Washington State and BYU (twice). It will be a really tough ask to expect UT to pull off the upset on the long road trip. Interestingly, the Zags also play in the MAC - The McCarthey Athletic Center - which is a smaller arena (seats 6000) but they fill it well, averaging over 5,000 fans last year.

Last year's team won the WCC (8th ranked conference) but was upset in the WCC Tournament by Portland. They still got an at-large berth to the NCAAs (because they seem to have P6-adjacent status with the NCAA,) where they lost badly to Ole Miss 71-48. They beat Tennessee last season, 73-72 in the Bahamas behind 22 points from Ejim. In the same tournament, they beat top-10 Louisville in OT, 79-67 in a game where they out-rebounded the Cardinals 50-31.

The Zags were the #1 3-point shooting team in the country, draining them at a 41% clip. That was mostly 2 players, Kaylynne Truong (42%) and Brynna Maxwell (48%) who combined took 2/3 of the teams threes. But that's not their only threat, as 6'1 F Yvonne Ejim was their most productive player, averaging 17 points and 8 boards (although she was foul prone and fouled out 7 times.) All three of those players are back, along with a 4th starter and Truong's twin sister Kayleigh who was injured a large part of the season, or else probably would have been the 5th starter. The Zags also out-rebounded their opponents by over 5 boards per game, and were the 7th best FT shooting team in the nation at 79% as a team. If that all was not enough, they held their opponents to under 60 points per game. This is a really good team.

The worst news is that Gonzaga returns 89% of their production from last year, losing only 1 contributor, who transferred to Cal. They add transfer F Naya Ojukwu from 8th ranked Utah who barely played there and 2 freshmen. They also get back, Toledo-area player, 6'2 Bree Salenbien, who was injured late in her freshman year and then sat out all of last year. She was a minor contributor as a freshman averaging 2 points and 2 rebounds. But, it's not like they need any newcomers as essentially all of the contributors are back.

Toledo will definitely have their hands full. Cullop always emphasizes defending the three, so we will have to see what kind of defense she comes up with against the best shooters in DI ball. But, if they take away the deep threats, that may set up Ejim and the other front court players for a big game. Ejim is long and quick and can hit the jumper as well as play down low. Rockets likely have to shoot very well and outscore the Zags. Getting Ejim in foul trouble early could help.

The Zags were picked to win the WCC in the preseason poll. The 4 seniors, Ejim, Maxwell and the Truong twins were all picked to the 10-player preseason All-WCC team.

I am not optimistic that the Rockets will be able to pull the upset, but we will see. Hopefully it will be a close game.

Cincinnati @Savage, 2PM Nov 19

Conference: Big 12 (Last year was in AAC)
22-23 Record: 9-21
22-23 NET: 194

All-Time UT Record: 4-8 (4-3, post-1983)
Streak: UT 2 wins
Last meeting: UT 74-71 (OT) 11/16/2022
Last Cinci win: 60-59 12/23/2008

Cincinnati visits Savage in the 2nd half of the home-and-home series begun last season, but they do so with a new coach - former Memphis head and UC alum Katrina Merriweather. Unusual for schools with coaching changes, UC hung on to most of their best players, with those returning representing nearly 80% of last year's overall production. Unfortunately, UC didn't produce that much, averaging only 60 points per game, which was 282nd in DI. In a low point of the season, they only managed to score 35 points against a Xavier team that was not particularly strong. Their defense was better than their offense, playing multiple-sets, including a press at times and giving up only 64 points. They were in the top 25 in DI in blocked shots. They finished in last place in the American Athletic Conference.

Nevertheless, UT had their hands full with the Bearcats at Fifth Third Arena, hanging on to a 74-71 win in OT. Cinci got big offensive performances from PG Mya Jackson (24 points) and big guard Jillian Hayes (21 points) who both far outperformed their season averages. They both return this year - Jackson for her 5th season. They also return both of their posts, Clarissa Craig and Malea Williams along with some other role players. Coach Merriweather brings with her from Memphis another big, in 6'4 Destiny Thomas who averaged 5 points and 6 boards as a freshman, Penn State transfer Aicha Dia and one-time Miami Redhawk, Nia Clark who transferred from Marquette for her 6th year. They also add 5 freshmen. I expect some of the freshmen to get a chance to contribute right away.

In last year's match-up, the Rockets were led by Q's 19 points & Sammi's double-double (16 & 11). Jess Cook added 13. But the Rockets were out-rebounded badly, 41-31, and gave up 13 second chance points. UT was up by 6 at the half, but lost the lead in Q3 and had to come from behind to force OT.

Coach Merriweather's Memphis team was also a strong defensive squad that didn't shoot the ball well, but they scored more than Cinci did. They beat UC easily twice, and also beat two MAC opponents easily - Miami and Ball State. They did succumb to BGSU in the WNIT. We will have to see what changes she makes to the UC line-up and style of play, but expect them to continue to be a tough defensive team. I would expect UC will be improved, but it may take some time to integrate the new faces and adjust to the new coach's style. UT will need to do better on the boards, but being at home in front of the Savage faithful should help and the Rockets should be able to handle the Bearcats.

Cinci makes the move to the Big XII this year, which will be much tougher than the AAC for them. Fortunately for UT, that schedule should lift UC's NET ranking just from allowing themselves to get beaten up by some top teams in conference play. That will benefit UT's SOS, which makes this a worthwhile game, but one UT needs to win.

The Bearcats were picked to finish 13th (out of 14 teams) in the Big XII, with no players selected for the preseason All-Big XII team.

SMU @San Diego, CA TBA Nov 24

Conference: AAC (Rank 7)
22-23 Record: 17-13; WNIT, lost in 2nd round
22-23 NET: 85

All-Time UT Record: 0-1
Streak: SMU 1 win
Last meeting: SMU 91-76 03/13/1999, NCAA Tournament Round 1 @ Athens, GA

UT has only played the Mustangs once and it was one to forget as SMU upset the 6th seeded Rockets 91-76 in the 1st round of the 1999 NCAAs. Kim Knuth's 24 points, 6 boards and 7 assists could not make up for some poor shooting and rebounding and bad defense that led to the disappointing early exit. The Rockets should be looking for some payback, albeit 24 years late.

Last season's SMU team was not a high scoring squad, as they only averaged 63 points per game, but they held opponents to an outstanding 58 points which was 41st best in DI. On offense, they were a very poor 3 point shooting team, only hitting at a 27% clip which was 305th in DI. They return 3 of their starters, but lose their top 2 scorers who included their PG and leading 3 point threat (not that any players were huge threats from outside.) They return about 60% of production, but helped themselves a lot in the portal. They bring in 2 guards - Tiara Young from Houston and Maya Chandler from Loyola Chicago - who, combined, scored 23 points last year. But, neither were great 3 point shooters either, so are unlikely to help improve that stat much. They also add 2 freshmen and another player that appears to have redshirted last year. Their top returning player is 6'1 F Chantae Embry who averaged 12 points and 6 boards per game.

SMU shared 1 common opponent with UT and that was Cincinnati who they beat in a low scoring game 55-44. So, this is another game one may expect to be a low scoring affair. SMU is not any taller than UT as a roster, did not get to the line often and committed about 4 more turnovers than UT did, which are all stats that favor the Rockets. The trip out to San Diego favors the Mustangs a bit though, with a bit shorter travel distance and 1 less time zone change, in addition to the fact that it will be UT's 2nd west coast journey in less than 2 weeks.

On paper, SMU reminds me a lot of last year's opponent, UT Arlington, but should be more talented and thus more dangerous. UT should have the advantage overall though, given their overall team experience, but this will be a tough opponent on a long west coast trip.

The Mustangs were picked to finish 4th in the AAC preseason poll, but had no players selected for the all-conference team.

North Dakota St. @San Diego, CA TBA Nov 25

Conference: Summit (Rank 21)
22-23 Record: 17-12; WNIT, lost in 1st round
22-23 NET: 191

All-Time UT Record: 1-0
Streak: UT 1 win
Last meeting: UT 69-66 11/20/2005

I was surprised to find that UT has only ever played NDSU once, during the Ehlen era. That was NDSU's 1st season playing in DI. But UT is undefeated all-time against teams from North Dakota (5-0).

NDSU was a relatively high scoring team last year, averaging nearly 72 points per game and finished 2nd in the weak Summit League (21st ranked conference). On the defensive side, NDSU gave up nearly 70 points per game which was in the bottom 20% of all DI teams, so they won mostly by outscoring their opponents. They fouled a lot, committing more than 20 per game which made them the 24th most foul prone in DI. Conversely, they got to the line often, but they did not shoot a great percentage when there (69%). NDSU did manage to beat Minnesota (who they were able to play at home) although UM was near the bottom of the Big Ten at 4-14 and was not a top 100 team. Still, it shows they did have the ability to beat a P6 team. The only really good Summit League team on the other hand, SDSU, ran through the conference & tournament undefeated, beating NDSU by 28 and 31 points in their two match-ups, highlighting the huge disparity between SDSU and the rest of the league. The Bison also played 2 bottom-half MAC opponents, losing to both CMU and EMU, the latter by 18 points at Ypsi.

They lose 2 starters to graduation, but return a respectable 67% of their production. That includes their 2 leading scorers 5'8 G Heaven Hamling (16 points) and 6'3 sophomore guard Ellie Evans (13 points). Those two combined took over 40% of NDSU's shots, and more than half of their 3-pointers. In fact they return all their best 3 point shooters and most of their rebounding as well. But they did little to improve themselves via the portal, adding no DI transfers. They do add JUCO forward 5'10 Grace Massaquoi from North Dakota St College of Science who averaged 15 points and 9 boards as a freshman there. They also get back 2 freshmen who redshirted last year, and add 4 new incoming freshmen. Overall, they are extremely young, with an average class experience of only 2.2 and only 4 upperclasswomen on the roster.

UT will have to control their two big scores. Evans is a tough match-up for most mid-major teams as a 6'3 guard who took >100 threes. It will be interesting to see who Cullop assigns to guard her. Rinat may be a choice there with her height. The game will be the 2nd on back-to-back nights after long trips for both to San Diego, so experience and depth may play a big role. Given NDSU's youth, lack of a proven defense and evidence that they haven't always played well against good teams (SDSU), UT should be able to handle the Bison, if they play like we know they can.

NDSU was picked to finish 2nd in the Summit League preseason poll. Both Hamling and Evans were selected to the preseason 1st Team All-Summit squad.

Michigan @Savage, 5PM Dec 6 CBS SportsNet

Conference: Big Ten (Rank 5)
22-23 Record: 23-10; NCAA Tournament, lost in 2nd round
22-23 NET: 25

All-Time Record: 8-11
Streak: UT 1 win
Last meeting: UT 71-68 12/08/2022
Last UM win: 74-58 03/23/2015

Last year, the Rockets blasted into Crisler Center and showed the Big Ten crowd who the best Blue&Gold team was, beating a bigger, much more highly touted and #14-ranked Michigan, 71-68. Sophia Wiard led 5 Rockets in double figures with 15 and Sammi Mikonowicz made a play for the ages, scoring off an inbounds in the waining seconds to give UT their final lead. The Rockets turned the ball over way too many times or the game might have been blow-out for UT. Still, the Rockets out-shot and out-rebounded the Wolverines to get their 8th all-time defeat of that team up in Ann Arbor. Although UM didn't have a great B10 season thereafter, they stayed in the top 20, finishing the year at #18, losing to eventual national champ LSU in the 2nd Round of the NCAAs.

This year's Michigan team will look completely different than last year's though. Gone are 1st Team All-Big Ten players Emily Kiser and Leigha Brown who both graduated, and PG Maddie Nolan who transferred to Colorado. Overall, UM returns only 40% of last year's production - most of that from 6'0 G Laila Phelia who scored nearly 17 points a game last year and shot 42% from three. Phelia scored 20 against UT last year to lead UM.

To fill in the roster, Michigan raided the MAC, adding BG grad transfer G Elissa Brett (15 points, 6 boards) & WMU senior F Taylor Williams (15 points, 9 boards). I expect both could start for the Wolverines this year given the holes in their roster, but even if they don't, both will certainly get plenty of playing time. They also added Missouri grad transfer G Lauren Hansen (13 points). The three transfers in total scored 42 points and grabbed 18 rebounds for their respective teams last year. The trio could make up most or all of the lost production, if their play translates well to UM. They also add two freshmen including Michigan Miss Basketball Macy Brown and 4-star recruit Taylor Woodson from Minnesota. So, UM still will still have loads of talent, but the question will be how all the new pieces come together by December. They had also signed former Illinois Gatorade PoY Katy Eidle, but her name has dropped off the roster.

Michigan will be gunning for payback from last season and I am sure that Brett is seething to get another shot at UT after the way the Rockets ended BG's MAC season including the highlight-reel-block Nan Garcia laid on her late in the season finale at Savage. So the Rockets are going to have to be in top form to fend off the team up north once again. Having the game in Savage will help, as will getting Noveroske back to add some additional inside presence against the very tall (nearly 6'1 roster average) Wolverines.

Still, the Rockets have experience dealing with Brett and Williams and if they play with the same offensive speed and skill as last year at Crisler and limit their turnovers the Rockets should have an excellent shot at getting another P6 win this season.

The Big Ten has a weird preseason poll, with separate ones by the coaches and the media, and each only selecting the top 5 teams. Michigan was picked to finish 5th in the media poll, but not in the top 5 of the coaches poll. Laila Phelia was named to the single 10-player All-Big Ten Team by both polls.

Loyola MD @Savage, 2PM Dec 10

Conference: Patriot (Rank 24)
22-23 Record: 10-21
22-23 NET: 315

All-Time UT Record: 3-0
Streak: UT 3 wins
Last meeting: UT 62-40 11/30/2022

At 10-21 and a NET of 315, Loyola Maryland was amazingly actually improved last year over the previous 5-win season. The Rockets came away with a 22-point victory on the road 62-40 although it was a somewhat lackluster performance by the Rockets, influenced possibly by travel delays that reportedly kept them from arriving in Baltimore until the wee hours of the morning. Q led the Rockets with 17 and Cook added 10.

The Greyhounds were very near the bottom of DI in offense, scoring only 55 points on 39% shooting. Defensively they were better, giving up only 62, but that can be explained in part by playing in the Patriot League which was the 24th ranked conference in DI. They were also turnover-prone, averaging 17 a game, and their 0.64 assist-to-turnover ratio was the worst of any of UT's opponents this season. They lose 2 starters, including their 2nd-leading scorer and a third significant contributor and yet still return nearly 70% of their production. That's because, back for her junior season, is 6'1 All-Patriot League Lex Therien who averaged 15 points and 11 boards, accounting for an astounding 34% of Loyola's very limited production. Therien had 12 points and 10 boards against the Rockets last year.

Interestingly, head coach Danielle O'Banion (former Kent HC) did not attempt to improve the team via the portal, as they added no transfers of any kind. They do bring in 5 new freshmen, and get back another freshman who appeared to have redshirted last year. That will make the Greyhounds the youngest team UT will face, with a roster average experience of only 2.1.

With the game being at Savage this year, there should be no issue with a sluggish start for the Rockets, and I expect UT to cruise and win going away.

Loyola was picked to finish 9th (out of 10) in the Patriot League preseason poll, and Lex Therien was selected to the All-Patriot League team.

Blade article on the return of Noveroske:
https://www.toledoblade.com/sports/ut/20...0231026109

Article indicates she spent significant time last year lifting and getting stronger, and also working on a mid-range jumper which could make her more dangerous. Has also been working on passing out of double teams and avoiding fouls.

Buffalo had their exhibition game yesterday against DII Daemon. They took care of business, winning 58-42, although it was close through 3 quarters. Last year's UB squad beat the same Daemon squad 61-51.

From the stats, UB played essentially only 8 players. The Canadian transfer Swedish Forward fouled out in only 7 minutes of play was player 9. Huge numbers of turnovers and fouls by both teams with 5 total players fouling out. UB 1-14 from three. So, as expected they are very much a work in progress. Chellia Watson, the UB guard who sat out last year, and who is expected to be their best player, led the Bulls with 13 points.

Women defeat Ohio Dominican 88-29 in exhibition today.

(10-29-2023 04:07 PM)DetroitRocket Wrote:  Women defeat Ohio Dominican 88-29 in exhibition today.

Any reports from anyone who was there? How did the newcomers look?

Don't understand why UT doesn't at least post stats from the game so we can see who played. Only stat in the story on the website is that Q had 20 and 2 other unnamed Rockets scored in double figures.

These fast-cut reels are cool and all, but I would still also like to see an actual highlight reel where you can see the complete plays. I know, I am really old.

In other MAC exhibition games.

CMU 75 DII Davenport 61
- DU led at the half, but CMU dominated the latter parts of the game. From the stats, it was a foul fest by both teams. CMU only shot 55% from the line or it would have been a much bigger win. CMU's height compared to a tiny DU squad showed on the boards with a 51-35 advantage. True Freshman guard Tamara Ortiz led the chips with 16. Sophomore guard Taylor Anderson had a double-double. CMU played 9, but Missouri St transfer Capria Brown did not play for unknown reasons.

WMU 76 NAIA Aquinas 47
- A similar score to when the 2 teams met last year. Saginaw Valley St grad transfer guard Kaitlyn Zarycki dominated the game scoring 36 points. The rest of the Broncos shot below 30% for the game. It appears from the stats that several Broncos did not play, including their best returning player Hannah Spitzley. I do not know why she did not. Neither did center Lauren Audino who was a contributor last year. Also 2 of their incoming freshmen did not play - I don't know if that means they are destined to redshirt or not.

Five Mid-Major Teams To Watch

https://herhoopstats.substack.com/p/five...s-to-watch

Includes Toledo (and Gonzaga)

Getting back to finishing my OOC scouting reports...

Oakland @Savage, 7PM Dec 17

Conference: Horizon (Rank 19)
22-23 Record: 12-17
22-23 NET: 275

All-Time Record: 6-7 (6-1 post-1985)
Streak: UT 5 wins
Last meeting: UT 74-44 12/21/2022
Last Oakland win: 76-60 12/5/2006

Oakland was simply a terrible shooting team last season, shooting only 27% from three, 36% overall and 66% from the line - all those stats were in the bottom 20% of DI teams. Still, they managed to win 12 games, three of which were over MAC opponents (Akron, CMU and Miami) which is surprising since UT handled them with ease, 74-44 at Savage - a game in which 8 different Rockets scored at least 6 points. UT held the Grizzlies to just 25% shooting.

To be fair though, last season was a turbulent one for OU, having a near complete turnover in the roster and losing their associate head coach (former Rocket Ke'sha Blanton to EMU.) This season's roster is a bit more stable with 8 players, responsible for 70% of their production, returning. That includes leading scorer & rebounder Alexis Johnson, who was also their best 3-point shooter. They also return Horizon League Freshman of the Year, 5'6 G Brooke Quarles-Daniels (12 points, 6 boards) from Macomb, MI. I have seen at least one publication list her as a potential candidate for PoY in the Horizon this year.

They added 4 players from the portal including Toledo-product Madison Royal-Davis who will make her return home in this game. She comes to OU from Butler, but only played a total of 16 minutes there as a freshman. They also add former Michigan State walk-on Maddy Skorupski, 6'3 grad transfer Kianni Westbrook from Tennessee St. and DII transfer Markyia McCormick. Westbrook averaged 6 points and 5 rebounds at TSU and so may contribute on the front line. McCormick averaged 12 points in 29 games at Charleston (WVa). They also add 2 freshmen. Although I think Oakland will be improved, none of the new faces would appear to be game-changers on paper, so unless a couple players are real surprises, it's hard to imagine Oakland will make huge strides this year.

Oakland was picked to finish 8th of 11 teams in the Horizon League preseason poll. SO guard Brooke Quarles-Daniels was selected to 1st Team All-Horizon.

Toledo is riding a 5 game win streak against the Grizzlies and I don't expect that streak to end this year. The Rockets should cruise though this one again.

Duke @Durham, NC, 7PM Dec 20

Conference: ACC (Rank 2)
22-23 Record: 26-7
22-23 NET: 10

All-Time UT Record: 1-3
Streak: Duke 1 win
Last meeting: Duke 58-41 11/20/2022
Last UT win: 71-65 11/18/2001

Duke had perhaps their best season in a decade last year, winning 26 games and finishing with a top 10 NET ranking. That garnered them a 3rd seed in the NCAA Tournament, but they were upset in the 2nd round by 6 seed Colorado. They came to Savage for the 1st time since UT upset the then 5th ranked Blue Devils 71-65 in 2001. Unfortunately the Rockets could not duplicate that feat, losing 54-41 in a game where Duke's D smothered the Rockets. UT's shooting was ice cold (30%) and their rebounding was even worse (41-21 Duke). The Devils held Q to only 9 points, with Garcia and Goss leading UT with 11 each.

Given that this year's game will be in the cozy confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, one is tempted to expect more of the same or worse for the Rockets. However, Duke will not be remotely the same team as the one we saw at Savage. For unknown reasons, they had a mass exodus to the portal, despite the outstanding season and keeping the same coach. Five players left for greener pastures including leading scorer and ACC Defensive PoY Celeste Taylor who came up north to Ohio State. Their 2nd and 3rd leading scores also transferred and several other contributing players graduated. Duke returns only 5 players from last year's squad, representing only 30% of their production. If that wasn't bad enough, Duke recently announced that returning guard, Vanessa de Jesus, has been lost to injury for the season. She was their most experienced guard and her loss means only 4 players and 24% of production return.

Duke does return 6'6 center Kennedy Brown who was a handful for the Rockets last year (12 points, 9 boards but also 6 TOs) but was not completely dominating. They also return guard Reigan Richardson who led Duke with 13 points against the Rockets. Despite all the departures, Duke did not add a lot from the portal in the off-season. They did add 2 good pieces - PG Taina Mair from BC (11 points, 6 assists as a freshman) and grad transfer center Camila Emsbo from Yale. Embso did not play last year due to injury but contributed 14 points and 10 boards the previous season and was 1st team All-Ivy. They also add 4 freshmen who are all very highly ranked. These include 5-star wing, Jadyn Donovan who was ranked the #3 recruit in the country by ESPN, and 2 other top-30 recruits in guard Oluchi Okananwa and forward Delaney Thomas along with 6-4 F Jordan Wood from Chicago. Given the Devils have only 4 returning players and the 2 transfers, it would seem at least a couple of the freshmen will get significant playing time this year.

So it is hard to tell what kind of team Duke is going to field. One can expect they will look to play very tough defense again, but their top defensive players are gone, and it will take some time for the freshmen to learn those defensive skills. Still, they will be immensely talented and have the benefit of playing at home this time. UT has a shot to pull the upset in this one, but will have to play much better than they did last season, making shots when they are there and not turning the ball over. Having Noveroske back to put another big body on the Duke post players will help.

I rate this one a toss up - Duke's talent and home court advantage against Toledo's experience and desire to get revenge for last season's poor showing.

Duke was picked to finish 7th in the ACC preseason poll and no Duke players picked for the All-ACC team. Incoming freshman Jadyn Donovan was named one of the Newcomers to Watch.

Hillsdale @Savage, 2PM Dec 30

Conference: G-MAC (DII)
22-23 Record: 17-14

All-Time UT Record: 1st Meeting

I was surprised to find that UT has never played Hillsdale before, not even in the early days before the MAC started sponsoring the sport in 1981. But it appears that Hillsdale didn't start playing WBB until 1979, so that maybe explains it. By my count, this will only be the 2nd time UT has played a non-DI opponent during Cullop's tenure.

Not much to say about this one. UT should have no problem beating the Chargers handily. They finished 17-14 last year and leading scorer Grace Touchette (15 points) has graduated. They are pretty small with only 3 players 6' or taller and the 2 players listed as centers combined for only 5 points last year against DII opponents. One of those was former WMU Bronco, Ashley Konkle.

This should be a game for some of the young players to get some significant time before MAC season starts (if they are not redshirting.) Expect a blowout, but the game won't count toward NET rankings in any case so the score really doesn't matter.