(10-20-2023 11:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:14 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Why would the P2 want CUSA and the MAC schools alongside them? They don't.

They provide a source for body bag games to pad the win totals.

They would not be under FBS rules for football any more ... if they decide to allow 2 games against "FBS" schools, thatd be up to them.

I don't think that any of the MAC schools rely on hosting P5 schools to hit their 5 FBS home game requirement, so having two games against non-FBS schools that count toward their 12 allowed games but don't count toward their FBS hosting requirement wouldn't be a functional difference to them.

(10-20-2023 01:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 12:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:14 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Why would the P2 want CUSA and the MAC schools alongside them? They don't.

They provide a source for body bag games to pad the win totals.

The future of P2 football won't need win totals. If your team goes 8-6 in divisional play and can still go to the playoff (think "wild card") you don't need Georgia State or Rice coming along.

It's not just about win totals. It's also about continuing to be able to sell tickets to seven home games per season instead of six. When you average home attendance of 50,000 to 100,000, the extra home game ticket revenue is a nice chunk of change. (Last season, average attendance at SEC games was 76,667 and at Big Ten games was 67,295).

The extra home game also helps keep the fans and boosters happy, especially in northern climes where it offers an additional opportunity to see the team before the weather turns freezing.

A breakaway of just the P2 will bring that to an end. Balanced schedules will be the rule.

Yep, that too.

Any breakaway for football only is going to be much, much smaller that all of FBS. Think more like the P2 and M2 breaking away.

(10-20-2023 11:34 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin strength rating (new members bold):

SEC East:
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Virginia

SEC Central:
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas

****************************************************************

B1G East:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan St, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G Central:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa State, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois

B1G West:
Oregon, Washington, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, California, Oregon St

*******************************************************************

Big XII
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Utah, Baylor, Arizona St, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, San Diego St, SMU

ACC:
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, USF

All of those schools would be academically acceptable to the B1G in a scenario like this. Iowa St was AAU up until a decade ago, and WSU and OSU were in the Pac for 100 years. The real issue with your plan is that the B1G wouldn't take those 3 and would instead add UArizona, ASU, and Utah, not only for Academic but also for Athletic reasons.

I agree with this switch. Swapping out Arizona, Arizona State and Utah for Iowa State, Oregon State and Washington State makes the Big XII a little brother state school conference, with the exception of San Diego State sprinkled in with several private schools. On the topic of San Diego State, other schools I would consider alongside them are Colorado State, Fresno State, Rice and Tulane.

These four conferences, along with Notre Dame, will be the ones to breakaway from the rest of the FBS as the P2/M2.

(10-20-2023 11:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin strength rating (new members bold):

SEC East:
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Virginia

SEC Central:
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas

****************************************************************

B1G East:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan St, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G Central:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa State, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois

B1G West:
Oregon, Washington, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, California, Oregon St

*******************************************************************

Big XII
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Utah, Baylor, Arizona St, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, San Diego St, SMU

ACC:
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, USF

Fresno State, Air Force and Boise State have the better ratings than San Diego State and SMU to be in the Big 12.

(10-20-2023 01:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 12:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:14 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Why would the P2 want CUSA and the MAC schools alongside them? They don't.

They provide a source for body bag games to pad the win totals.

The future of P2 football won't need win totals. If your team goes 8-6 in divisional play and can still go to the playoff (think "wild card") you don't need Georgia State or Rice coming along.

It's not just about win totals. It's also about continuing to be able to sell tickets to seven home games per season instead of six. When you average home attendance of 50,000 to 100,000, the extra home game ticket revenue is a nice chunk of change. (Last season, average attendance at SEC games was 76,667 and at Big Ten games was 67,295).

The extra home game also helps keep the fans and boosters happy, especially in northern climes where it offers an additional opportunity to see the team before the weather turns freezing.

A breakaway of just the P2 will bring that to an end. Balanced schedules will be the rule.

Youre assuming they stay at only 12 games. I wouldnt make that assumption.

(10-20-2023 09:38 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin strength rating (new members bold):

SEC East:
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Virginia

SEC Central:
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas

****************************************************************

B1G East:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan St, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G Central:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa State, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois

B1G West:
Oregon, Washington, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, California, Oregon St

*******************************************************************

Big XII
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Utah, Baylor, Arizona St, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, San Diego St, SMU

ACC:
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, USF

Fresno State, Air Force and Boise State have the better ratings than San Diego State and SMU to be in the Big 12.

Fresno state was on Fox primetime and couldnt even pull 1m.

(10-20-2023 08:55 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:34 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin strength rating (new members bold):

SEC East:
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Virginia

SEC Central:
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas

****************************************************************

B1G East:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan St, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G Central:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa State, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois

B1G West:
Oregon, Washington, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, California, Oregon St

*******************************************************************

Big XII
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Utah, Baylor, Arizona St, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, San Diego St, SMU

ACC:
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, USF

All of those schools would be academically acceptable to the B1G in a scenario like this. Iowa St was AAU up until a decade ago, and WSU and OSU were in the Pac for 100 years. The real issue with your plan is that the B1G wouldn't take those 3 and would instead add UArizona, ASU, and Utah, not only for Academic but also for Athletic reasons.

I agree with this switch. Swapping out Arizona, Arizona State and Utah for Iowa State, Oregon State and Washington State makes the Big XII a little brother state school conference, with the exception of San Diego State sprinkled in with several private schools. On the topic of San Diego State, other schools I would consider alongside them are Colorado State, Fresno State, Rice and Tulane.

These four conferences, along with Notre Dame, will be the ones to breakaway from the rest of the FBS as the P2/M2.

Also, there's room to break up the 24 teams in the two P2 conferences into 6 pods of 4 teams each.

BIG

Pod A: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
Pod B: Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers
Pod C: Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Pod D: Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Utah
Pod E: Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, USC
Pod F: Cal, Oregon, Stanford, Washington

SEC

Pod A: NC State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Pod B: Clemson, Florida State, Miami (FL), South Carolina
Pod C: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia
Pod D: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Pod E: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Pod F: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

The M2 conferences can go divisionless since they have 12 teams.

ACC

Boston College
Cincinatti
Duke
Georgia Tech
Louisiville
Memphis
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Syracuse
UCF
Wake Forest
West Virginia

Big XII

Baylor
BYU
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
San Diego State
SMU
TCU
Texas Tech
Washington State

(10-20-2023 11:34 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin strength rating (new members bold):

SEC East:
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Virginia

SEC Central:
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas

****************************************************************

B1G East:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan St, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G Central:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa State, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois

B1G West:
Oregon, Washington, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, California, Oregon St

*******************************************************************

Big XII
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Utah, Baylor, Arizona St, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, San Diego St, SMU

ACC:
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, USF

All of those schools would be academically acceptable to the B1G in a scenario like this. Iowa St was AAU up until a decade ago, and WSU and OSU were in the Pac for 100 years. The real issue with your plan is that the B1G wouldn't take those 3 and would instead add UArizona, ASU, and Utah, not only for Academic but also for Athletic reasons.

bryanw: Actually, ISU was AAU until withdrawing voluntarily a little over a year ago. ISU fans were really upset about it, because any number of posters attributed the move to a collaboration of Iowa and Iowa St alums in the Iowa state legislature over a period of several decades. Don't think there is much love lost between the two fanbases.

(10-20-2023 08:55 PM)andybible1995 Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:34 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:02 AM)ken d Wrote:  Listed in order of their 10 year average Sagarin strength rating (new members bold):

SEC East:
Clemson, Florida St, South Carolina, Miami, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Virginia

SEC Central:
Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Mississippi St, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

SEC West:
Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas, Kansas

****************************************************************

B1G East:
Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan St, Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers

B1G Central:
Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa State, Northwestern, Colorado, Illinois

B1G West:
Oregon, Washington, USC, Stanford, UCLA, Washington St, California, Oregon St

*******************************************************************

Big XII
Oklahoma St, TCU, Kansas St, Utah, Baylor, Arizona St, Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Arizona, San Diego St, SMU

ACC:
Louisville, West Virginia, Pitt, UCF, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Cincinnati, Duke, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, USF

All of those schools would be academically acceptable to the B1G in a scenario like this. Iowa St was AAU up until a decade ago, and WSU and OSU were in the Pac for 100 years. The real issue with your plan is that the B1G wouldn't take those 3 and would instead add UArizona, ASU, and Utah, not only for Academic but also for Athletic reasons.

I agree with this switch. Swapping out Arizona, Arizona State and Utah for Iowa State, Oregon State and Washington State makes the Big XII a little brother state school conference, with the exception of San Diego State sprinkled in with several private schools. On the topic of San Diego State, other schools I would consider alongside them are Colorado State, Fresno State, Rice and Tulane.

These four conferences, along with Notre Dame, will be the ones to breakaway from the rest of the FBS as the P2/M2.

So if there's a managed transition by ESPN of the ACC schools to the ACC by about 2030, I can buy this SEC (w/ KU plausibly going either way). But if the realignment is done as part of the breakaway or if that managed transition doesn't happen, at least two or three schools out of those seven ACC schools plus KU will end up in the B1G.

But lets presume this managed ACC 7 to SEC transition happens, KU goes SEC, and UND stays indy... compared to Cal/Utah/2nd AZ school, Duke/GT/Pitt all sound like better options for the B1G. I know symmetry appeals to us when we are trying to categorize or plan, but one Bay or AZ school is enough and Utah seems even more of a stretch.

(10-20-2023 09:41 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 01:30 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 12:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:14 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Why would the P2 want CUSA and the MAC schools alongside them? They don't.

They provide a source for body bag games to pad the win totals.

The future of P2 football won't need win totals. If your team goes 8-6 in divisional play and can still go to the playoff (think "wild card") you don't need Georgia State or Rice coming along.

It's not just about win totals. It's also about continuing to be able to sell tickets to seven home games per season instead of six. When you average home attendance of 50,000 to 100,000, the extra home game ticket revenue is a nice chunk of change. (Last season, average attendance at SEC games was 76,667 and at Big Ten games was 67,295).

The extra home game also helps keep the fans and boosters happy, especially in northern climes where it offers an additional opportunity to see the team before the weather turns freezing.

A breakaway of just the P2 will bring that to an end. Balanced schedules will be the rule.

Youre assuming they stay at only 12 games. I wouldnt make that assumption.

I thought about that, but this wouldn’t be a complete professionalization of the sport. The players would still be student-athletes, and my guess is that a majority of presidents would be against further lengthening the season.

(10-20-2023 02:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Any breakaway for football only is going to be much, much smaller that all of FBS. Think more like the P2 and M2 breaking away.

Nah, they will still faced anti trust lawsuits from several states that don't have any schools in the P2 and M2. I do think it would be more along the lines football schools away from non-football schools.

(10-20-2023 12:05 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-20-2023 11:14 AM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  Why would the P2 want CUSA and the MAC schools alongside them? They don't.

They provide a source for body bag games to pad the win totals.

The future of P2 football won't need win totals. If your team goes 8-6 in divisional play and can still go to the playoff (think "wild card") you don't need Georgia State or Rice coming along.

You’re talking about reconstructing the collective minds of all college football fans. These are very spoiled children. Good luck with that

"Breakaway" is a threat. The "big boys" just want the rules in their favor. Why do you think there's an "Autonomy 5" now? As long as schools have a chance to play, they will say yes to whatever the Alabama's and Ohio State's want. The number of FBS schools almost always rises and rarely drops and the number of Division I men's basketball schools almost always rises and rarely drops.

I mean James Madison and Sam Houston State both won FCS National Championships in the last 10 years but both are now FBS schools hoping one day to spend the holidays in ... Mobile, Alabama! Bellamarine won the NCAA Division 2 Men's Basketball Championship in 2011. They made the NCAA Division 2 Tournament every year between then and 2019, the Sweet 16 five times after 2011, and the Final Four twice. So what do they do? Go up to Division 1.