The probability of converting first downs reduces — becomes less likely — the more plays a possession
includes.
A driving offense is about half as likely to pick up their third first down in any given series as they are to pick up their first.
The strength and identity of the 2023 Eastern Michigan University football team is a dominant D/ST, built specifically around an elite kicking game and a lights-out swarm in the secondary, bolstered by stone-cold linebackers who can cover and an active DL that can be disruptive behind the line of scrimmage — dare the run, force the pass, give up the sort of stuff that make long drives happen, win on 4th down (#12 in FBS) if you haven’t already taken it away (#20 in FBS).
The probability of converting first downs grows less likely the more plays a possession includes.
Lemme give away the end of this very long football post up-front: if the Eastern Michigan offense can increase their success rate on first down by something like 12% — meaning: if the offense can generate 5+ yards on first down just
two or three more times per game — I believe the Eagles will play in Detroit and win the MAC.
SOME CONTEXT
My take on the offense to-date is that a.) it’s been terrible quite a bit, b.) Austin Smith is part of that but not the entire
all of that (a struggling o-line, new personnel, injuries, and dropped passes are the other pieces), and c.) the situation is absolutely not as bad as people think it is — or filtering for ypg suggests it is — given that the other parts of the team are so strong.
The EMU system of complimentary football is rigged for a low number of possessions (NCAA average is 12; EMU is 11.5 and wants to be even lower) and suppressed scoring. Winning one and two possession games is the set-up.
The general philosophy for the offense goes something like: be balanced with run/pass (FWIW, 2023: 55% run on first down; 55% run overall), find the numbers advantage and reduce the field, develop mismatches and take what they give you, run the ball via inside-zone and RPOs, don’t turn it over, rely on your special teams, don’t turn it over, build options and wrinkles off your best stuff, and whatever you do — don’t turn it over.
Just past the half-way mark, this 2023 EMU offense still feels like it doesn’t yet know from it’s best stuff and it’s struggling with the bread and butter (inside zone). To my eye, it appears as if this particular offense was designed to be more than a little different than past seasons and more than a little different than it’s current dinged-up iteration.
The curtain-raise on the offense now almost two months ago was a mouth-watering new look: multiple running-backs and multiple hybrid-TEs in multiple formations, slot motion RPO, with mess-you-up explosives when you put LBs on Paaske/Reese/Daniels/Getz or forget Knue is NFL or let JB get behind you. This was flashed a few times against Howard and Minnesota, though now seems to have been largely abandoned or packed away either due to injury, inexperienced players, disappointing TE play or I don’t-know-what. Maybe I’m seeing it wrong.
In any case, I still feel like the offense is evolving into its best self. I mean —
obviously it is. It couldn’t really get much worse.
But my suspicion is that both the identity, strength, and philosophy of the team are making inconsistent execution and awful ypg numbers on offense look even worse when the reality is a little more positive — the D/ST is fantastic and the offense is not so far from good-enough for the Eagles to become a championship team. For as bad as the offense is on paper, they have weapons everywhere.
Austin Smith is one of them.
IN DEFENSE OF AUSTIN SMITH
If you combined the seven stat-lines of the other FBS starting QBs playing within a couple hundred miles of Ypsi on Saturday (excluding Heisman contenders facing Indiana) you’d get:
118 of 238 (49%) 1143 yds (4.8 ypa) 5 TD 8 INT
Which breaks down to an average game of under 50% completions, under 150 yards, and throwing picks nearly twice as much as TDs.
So if you were an FBS starting QB who played in or around Michigan on Saturday, it’s likely you played worse than Austin Smith.
A notable MAC player
not included in that seven-headed composite-monster above is reigning MAC OPoY, Kurtis Rourke, who averaged 4.4 ypa (worse than Smith) and threw 3 picks and zero TDs in a loss (much worse than Smith).
The point here is that the weather sucked and made everybody look bad, even All-American candidates.
Surprise, surprise: Austin Smith looked bad too. But
he didn’t throw picks and the Eagles won. CC was pissed post-game for good reason and he’s showing it for good reason, but the rest of us can allow a little bit of room for absolutely atrocious conditions and the worst field position I’ve ever seen, with 3 of 6 first-half possessions starting within the Eagles own 5 yard-line. Multiple botched snaps, multiple missed throws, multiple TFLs when Eagles tried to go tempo or otherwise try to go back-to-back with Jaylon the Great.
And yet!
The Eagle advantage was
still a three-possession lead late in the 4th quarter, clock ticking off, Eagles up 21-0 (with the ball!) with around 6 minutes to go. That looks just about right to me. Doesn't it?
As bad as his KSU performance was, in the last 3 games (CMU, BSU, and KSU) Smith is completing a higher percentage of his passes (59%), for more yards in the air and with more yards on the ground than he did in the first four weeks. He’s responsible for twice as many TDs, he’s taking less sacks, and of the most critical importance: he’s throwing shutouts with the INTs.
He’s not throwing picks.
The lack of turnovers is absolutely crucial. With the team the 2023 Eagles have, it’s almost enough to balance the inconsistent play elsewhere.
Almost.
A FIRST DOWN PROBLEM
Statistically — filtering for yards per game — the Eagles offense ranks 129th of 130 NCAA FBS programs, 114th in running, and 124th in passing. Only a single team — Iowa — has moved the football less.
Why? Everyone’s already noticed the stuff on the surface — injuries / inexperience up front, growing pains of a new scheme built around multiple TE formations, Smith’s hesitation when he doesn’t know what he’s looking at, and those breathtaking missed opportunities on explosive plays (drops, over-throws, batted balls).
As one might expect with this sort of stagnation, the Eagles third down percentage is a miserable 31%, good for 13th worst in the country. They’re facing 7+ yards on nearly half of their third downs while only seeing “3rd and 3 or less” 28% of the time (26 of 92 snaps).
Let’s zoom in. Trouble with third down percentage is a third and long problem which is a first down problem.
The NFL range of success rates on first down (I don’t have subscriptions and did this back-of-the-napkin and by hand using
Sharp) is 43% to 56%, with most teams between 48% and 53%. In other words, most teams gain 5+ yards around 48-53% of the time on first down. Third down conversion range is 34% to 53%.
To clean all this up: an average offense should gain 5+ yards on first down a little more than 50% of the time and convert a little less than 50% of the time on third down.
The Eagles’ first-down success rate in 2023 is 39%. Atrocious.
In the first four weeks, our first down success rate was 37% (Eagles were 24% on third down!). In the last three weeks, they're at a 40% success rate on first down and 40% third down conversion (despite still facing 3rd and long a whole bunch).
Against CMU, the O had a first down success rate of 50% (12/24) with an identical rate on third down conversions (6/12). Ball state was similar. So it’s improving, despite the poor conditions / play on Saturday.
And for as bad as the national stat rankings are, don’t sleep on the fact that the very same offense that is 2nd to last in the country in ypg is in the top 25% of the FBS when filtering for turnovers. They are exactly Jax State bizarro-picks away from the Top 10.
If EMU maintains the turnover margin and gets that first down success rate up to 51% — which again is only
2 or 3 more first down gains of 5+ yards
per game — the Eagles will make the trip to Detroit and likely win the game.
The defense is legit. The special teams are elite. The offense needs to be just a little bit better on first down. Moving from "atrocious" to "average" on first down will make green and white confetti rain from Ford Field's rafters.
Go Eagles.
