(10-15-2023 04:21 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  ... In short, it’s not a realistic scenario. ...

Indeed, among unrealistic scenarios, the promotion/relegation gimmick is more likely than the "invite 9 informally without a binding commitment and then all nine agree to vote to dissolve, despite it being a literal gamble on you following through on all nine of them" scenario.

Promotion/relegation may be an under 10% long shot, because of the weakness of the current media market, but since it requires "PAC2+MWC+4ofAAC" to make up the required two divisions of nine each, it doesn't leave any MWC schools stranded.

(10-15-2023 07:02 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 05:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:17 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  MWC should tell the PAC-2 that it’s an all or nothing deal. If they don’t like that, the two of them can go twist in the wind.

Yes.

Plus, if they invite less than 9, there will be an exit fee, so it simply won't happen.

And I don't see the PacMWC as being more attractive to Tulane and Memphis than the AAC even if travel and exit fees were not an issue.

If I was a tv exact? I would give the PAC2/MWC $20 million a year per school. I would also dangle them extra money to attract Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Gonzaga and Wichita State. Maybe a Long Beach State for the LA tv market.

Get real. Theyll be lucky to get over 10m for any combination of Pac-2 and G5 schools.

Yeah, I don’t see how the MWC adding the two PAC members nobody else wanted adds much to their current TV deal.

(10-15-2023 07:02 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 05:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:17 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  MWC should tell the PAC-2 that it’s an all or nothing deal. If they don’t like that, the two of them can go twist in the wind.

Yes.

Plus, if they invite less than 9, there will be an exit fee, so it simply won't happen.

And I don't see the PacMWC as being more attractive to Tulane and Memphis than the AAC even if travel and exit fees were not an issue.

If I was a tv exact? I would give the PAC2/MWC $20 million a year per school. I would also dangle them extra money to attract Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Gonzaga and Wichita State. Maybe a Long Beach State for the LA tv market.

Get real. Theyll be lucky to get over 10m for any combination of Pac-2 and G5 schools.

I haven't yet seen any number from any credible source that's anything other than pure speculation. But as a matter of pure speculation, I agree. My guess is that the annual per-school payout to a combined Pac2+MWC conference would be $8 million to $10 million at best, $6 million to $8 million at worst.

For comparison, the payout under the current AAC deal is just a shade under $6 million per school per year, disregarding the unequal share distribution currently in place ($83.3 million per year divided equally between 14 member schools is $5.95 million per school).

I think something that helps Wazzou and OkieSt? Utah and CU won’t be thrilled playing in that 10:30pm window every other week (along with BYU and Zonas), so it’s possible the PNW pair can leverage that window to get a P4 invite paid for by ESPN exclusively. May increase their chances a few percentage points depending on the assets they pick up.

It just seems like it would be better to do the merger now. Then later let the next round of realignment kick in and see what opens up.

(10-15-2023 07:02 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 05:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:17 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  MWC should tell the PAC-2 that it’s an all or nothing deal. If they don’t like that, the two of them can go twist in the wind.

Yes.

Plus, if they invite less than 9, there will be an exit fee, so it simply won't happen.

And I don't see the PacMWC as being more attractive to Tulane and Memphis than the AAC even if travel and exit fees were not an issue.

If I was a tv exact? I would give the PAC2/MWC $20 million a year per school. I would also dangle them extra money to attract Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Gonzaga and Wichita State. Maybe a Long Beach State for the LA tv market.

Get real. Theyll be lucky to get over 10m for any combination of Pac-2 and G5 schools.

I see $10 million per school only if Gonzaga gets added to fill up Hawaii Olympic sports spot. Give Gonzaga a 3/4 share guaranteed plus reward teams going further in the NCAA tournament by giving schools a bigger cut of the unit after the first one.

14 BB schools with Gonzaga would help.
16 BB with 2 schools in LA should work [Santa Barbara, Irivine, Long Beach St]
5 networks are now looking for inventory, 4 with 4th time slot [ESPN, Fox, CBS, NBC] & CW.
maybe PacN still around

(10-15-2023 07:02 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  ... Get real. Theyll be lucky to get over 10m for any combination of Pac-2 and G5 schools. ...

True ... remembering that networks are paying for a contract and that then gets divided among the schools, 6 years for 14 schools at $10m is $140m/year, $840m all up when the current MWC contract is $270m.

Of course, for the MWC schools, $8m/school would be a substantial pay raise.

(10-15-2023 07:35 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:02 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 05:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  [quote='AssKickingChicken' pid='19211627' dateline='1697401046']

If I was a tv exact? I would give the PAC2/MWC $20 million a year per school. I

Get real. Theyll be lucky to get over 10m for any combination of Pac-2 and G5 schools.

I see $10 million per school only if Gonzaga gets added to fill up Hawaii Olympic sports spot. Give Gonzaga a 3/4 share guaranteed plus reward teams going further in the NCAA tournament by giving schools a bigger cut of the unit after the first one.

The Pac 10 with old schools were barely breaking the 20 mil #. New Pac ? won't sniff that #. 6 to 11 is likely the range. My guess is <10 mil.

There is no new PAC. Its just Oregon State and Washington State joining the MWC.

Perhaps an easier way to circumvent MWC bylaws would be simply for a member, like a Diego St, to propose a change to the exit fees to something negligible or even zero.

Anyone who thinks they have a credible shot at getting in the PAC-2. If 9 vote yes, it passes and so long as they didn’t discuss it beforehand, it’s not a bad faith negotiation.

————
With that being no said, I think the whole MWC is going to end up merging with the PAC-2. I just don’t think there’s an appetite to leave Hawaii and 2 others behind.

(10-15-2023 11:59 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  The Pac 10 with old schools were barely breaking the 20 mil #. New Pac ? won't sniff that #. 6 to 11 is likely the range. My guess is <10 mil.

The PAC 10 with the old schools had an offer from ESPN of $30m+, which they did not accept.

And the offer from AppleTV was a baseline of $20m, but it did have a subscription revenue share -- while it would have likely ended up noticeably better than $20m, Presidents are risk averse, and the Big12 money alternative for the FourCorner 4 was a guaranteed media revenue.

The PAC2 won't end up close to where the PAC-10 was, but "were barely breaking the 20 mil #" is a misrepresentation of the market test of their media value.

(10-15-2023 03:29 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:22 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 02:37 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Rumor has it WSU/OSU are just going to merge with the MW and perhaps bring the PAC name and remaining assets. I get the feeling the PAC2 are going to be more selective than that. Below are my top 3 guess at the nPAC12. I think the 3rd option is the least likely.

1) WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SDSU/FSU/UNLV/WYO/CSU/AFA/TULN/MEM

2) WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SDSU/FSU/UNLV/NEV/WYO/CSU/AFA/TXST

3)WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SJSU/FSU/SDSU/UNLV/NEV/HAW/AFA/CSU/WYO/UNM

Your feeling appears to disregard MWC and AAC exit fees that, depending on the conference and the timing, may range from $10 million to $34 million per school.

My expectation is that WSU and OSU will want to pay themselves whatever PAC financial assets they can retain so as to soften their own transitions to smaller annual athletic budgets, rather than spending the money to defray exit fees for MWC and AAC schools. That suggests that a full Pac-MWC merger of some kind is the most likely outcome.

Option 2 would mean the MW is dissolved with 9 members moving on with WSU/OSU. So there would be no exit fees.

Wrong. This option doesn't include New Mexico, so there would be exit fees due. Substitute New Mexico for Texas State, and that's no longer the case, but in that event you're talking about a full merger.

It will be a full merger, albeit a reverse merger of sorts. New conference will retain the Pac name and assets, but Mountain West leadership.

(10-15-2023 07:20 PM)goofus Wrote:  It just seems like it would be better to do the merger now.

The ink would likely already be dry on the contracts if GK and the PAC10gone hadn't gotten in the way. Let's hope that the on-going court-ordered mediation succeeds.

(10-15-2023 07:08 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:02 PM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 05:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:17 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  MWC should tell the PAC-2 that it’s an all or nothing deal. If they don’t like that, the two of them can go twist in the wind.

Yes.

Plus, if they invite less than 9, there will be an exit fee, so it simply won't happen.

And I don't see the PacMWC as being more attractive to Tulane and Memphis than the AAC even if travel and exit fees were not an issue.

If I was a tv exact? I would give the PAC2/MWC $20 million a year per school. I would also dangle them extra money to attract Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Gonzaga and Wichita State. Maybe a Long Beach State for the LA tv market.

Get real. Theyll be lucky to get over 10m for any combination of Pac-2 and G5 schools.

Yeah, I don’t see how the MWC adding the two PAC members nobody else wanted adds much to their current TV deal.

I agree.

IMO, a reconstituted PAC consisting of the R2 and the MW would make about the same $$$ the AAC currently gets, in the $7m to $8m per school range.

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:17 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  MWC should tell the PAC-2 that it’s an all or nothing deal. If they don’t like that, the two of them can go twist in the wind.

Yes.

Plus, if they invite less than 9, there will be an exit fee, so it simply won't happen.

And I don't see the PacMWC as being more attractive to Tulane and Memphis than the AAC even if travel and exit fees were not an issue.

Agree. I don't see why Memphis and/or Tulane would care to join a G-level PAC that IMO will likely make no more media $$$ than the current AAC. No reason to pay an exit fee for that, and then also the schools your team will be playing will be less attractive than AAC teams for your fan base.

(10-15-2023 03:22 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 02:37 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Rumor has it WSU/OSU are just going to merge with the MW and perhaps bring the PAC name and remaining assets. I get the feeling the PAC2 are going to be more selective than that. Below are my top 3 guess at the nPAC12. I think the 3rd option is the least likely.

1) WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SDSU/FSU/UNLV/WYO/CSU/AFA/TULN/MEM

2) WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SDSU/FSU/UNLV/NEV/WYO/CSU/AFA/TXST

3)WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SJSU/FSU/SDSU/UNLV/NEV/HAW/AFA/CSU/WYO/UNM

Your feeling appears to disregard MWC and AAC exit fees that, depending on the conference and the timing, may range from $10 million to $34 million per school.

My expectation is that WSU and OSU will want to pay themselves whatever PAC financial assets they can retain so as to soften their own transitions to smaller annual athletic budgets, rather than spending the money to defray exit fees for MWC and AAC schools. That suggests that a full Pac-MWC merger of some kind is the most likely outcome.

No one will be paying anything close to $34M to leave. I'd say about $7M for all schools outside of BSU (higher) and Hawaii (lower). Its too late to put together a conference for 2024 and even the $17M exit fee for MWC members with a year's notice cannot be justified.

However, if the PAC2 cannot get interest from some AAC schools then a merger with 9 or more MWC schools might be the best outcome.

Didn't mean to quote this post. Post edited out.

(10-15-2023 05:25 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 04:23 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 03:17 PM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  MWC should tell the PAC-2 that it’s an all or nothing deal. If they don’t like that, the two of them can go twist in the wind.

Yes.

Plus, if they invite less than 9, there will be an exit fee, so it simply won't happen.

And I don't see the PacMWC as being more attractive to Tulane and Memphis than the AAC even if travel and exit fees were not an issue.

If I was a tv exact? I would give the PAC2/MWC $20 million a year per school. I would also dangle them extra money to attract Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Missouri State, Gonzaga and Wichita State. Maybe a Long Beach State for the LA tv market.

$20M? Wish that was true. A PAC with Calford and the best of the rest MWC and AAC schools (including SMU) was worth about $11M per reports.

(10-15-2023 03:25 PM)EdwordL Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 02:37 PM)AztecEmpire Wrote:  Rumor has it WSU/OSU are just going to merge with the MW and perhaps bring the PAC name and remaining assets. I get the feeling the PAC2 are going to be more selective than that. Below are my top 3 guess at the nPAC12. I think the 3rd option is the least likely.

1) WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SDSU/FSU/UNLV/WYO/CSU/AFA/TULN/MEM

2) WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SDSU/FSU/UNLV/NEV/WYO/CSU/AFA/TXST

3)WSU/OSU/BSU/USU/SJSU/FSU/SDSU/UNLV/NEV/HAW/AFA/CSU/WYO/UNM

Just read a Jim Williams tweet that, according to his source, WOSU hope to retain the assets, then join either ACC or Big 12.

Im sure they do, but their most realistic best case scenario is to retain all the PAC assests and have the MWC join them under the PAC banner.