If I were making the CFP rankings right now, they would be:

1. Georgia
2. Oklahoma
3. Washington
4. Michigan
5. Ohio State
6. Oregon
7. Texas

No ACC team even comes close.

(10-15-2023 08:18 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  If I were making the CFP rankings right now, they would be:

Well I'm glad you're not

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-14-2023 08:52 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(10-11-2023 02:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m curious on what everyone thinks about the Wash-Ore winner. How high do they jump in the polls as a product of beating a top 10 team?

All eyes was on this game, so if people are seriously going to do the polls the dawgs should move up a couple and the ducks should move down a couple

I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

(10-15-2023 09:34 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-14-2023 08:52 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(10-11-2023 02:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m curious on what everyone thinks about the Wash-Ore winner. How high do they jump in the polls as a product of beating a top 10 team?

All eyes was on this game, so if people are seriously going to do the polls the dawgs should move up a couple and the ducks should move down a couple

I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

The probability you're going to go for it on 3 key 4th downs and not convert any of them is extremely low. Sometimes you're the windshield; sometimes you're the bug.

(10-15-2023 09:38 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:34 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-14-2023 08:52 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(10-11-2023 02:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m curious on what everyone thinks about the Wash-Ore winner. How high do they jump in the polls as a product of beating a top 10 team?

All eyes was on this game, so if people are seriously going to do the polls the dawgs should move up a couple and the ducks should move down a couple

I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

The probability you're going to go for it on 3 key 4th downs and not convert any of them is extremely low. Sometimes you're the windshield; sometimes you're the bug.

The probability that you make 2 chip shot field goals is extremely high, while the probability that you make 2 red zone 4th down conversions over a team ranked higher than your are are low. Having 6 more points late in the 4th quarter would have made gambling on the 3rd 4th down conversion a silly idea.

And doing these things also telegraphed to his team that he thought the huskies were a better team than they were... they needed to take high risks to win. While it signaled confidence in a given play 3 times, overall a lack of confidence that they could win simply by taking points when they could.

(10-15-2023 10:03 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:38 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:34 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-14-2023 08:52 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  All eyes was on this game, so if people are seriously going to do the polls the dawgs should move up a couple and the ducks should move down a couple

I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

The probability you're going to go for it on 3 key 4th downs and not convert any of them is extremely low. Sometimes you're the windshield; sometimes you're the bug.

The probability that you make 2 chip shot field goals is extremely high, while the probability that you make 2 red zone 4th down conversions over a team ranked higher than your are are low. Having 6 more points late in the 4th quarter would have made gambling on the 3rd 4th down conversion a silly idea.

And doing these things also telegraphed to his team that he thought the huskies were a better team than they were... they needed to take high risks to win. While it signaled confidence in a given play 3 times, overall a lack of confidence that they could win simply by taking points when they could.

The correct decision at the end of the half would be to kick the field goal. I don't think it is fear, it is more about respect, with the thinking being you are not going to beat the Huskies in Seattle kicking field goals. But with a 4th & 3 at the UW 3-yard line, coming off a turnover, and knowing that you are going to get the ball to start the second half, kicking a field goal and cutting the lead to one point is the wiser choice. But if you are going to be aggressive, the play call has to be better than the option that they gave Bo Nix. Lanning admitted after the game that he should have kicked the field goal. He is a young head coach; he will learn from it.

(10-15-2023 10:03 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:38 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:34 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-14-2023 08:52 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  All eyes was on this game, so if people are seriously going to do the polls the dawgs should move up a couple and the ducks should move down a couple

I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

The probability you're going to go for it on 3 key 4th downs and not convert any of them is extremely low. Sometimes you're the windshield; sometimes you're the bug.

The probability that you make 2 chip shot field goals is extremely high, while the probability that you make 2 red zone 4th down conversions over a team ranked higher than your are are low. Having 6 more points late in the 4th quarter would have made gambling on the 3rd 4th down conversion a silly idea.

And doing these things also telegraphed to his team that he thought the huskies were a better team than they were... they needed to take high risks to win. While it signaled confidence in a given play 3 times, overall a lack of confidence that they could win simply by taking points when they could.

You'd have 6 more points. But...you'd have kicked the 2nd FG instead of turning it over to UW on their own 9, then getting the ball at midfield on a subsequent punt. So erase that 8 point touchdown, for a net of -2 points.

The ESPN play-by-play lists each decision as a 4th and 3, which is typically about a 48% chance of success. So the likelihood of missing on all 3 is only about 14%.

And I don't subscribe too often to unquantifiable soft factors. And I don't think you're telegraphing anything by going for more points to a team of 18-22 year olds who love nothing more than being aggressive every single play.

(10-15-2023 10:30 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 10:03 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:38 AM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 09:34 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

The probability you're going to go for it on 3 key 4th downs and not convert any of them is extremely low. Sometimes you're the windshield; sometimes you're the bug.

The probability that you make 2 chip shot field goals is extremely high, while the probability that you make 2 red zone 4th down conversions over a team ranked higher than your are are low. Having 6 more points late in the 4th quarter would have made gambling on the 3rd 4th down conversion a silly idea.

And doing these things also telegraphed to his team that he thought the huskies were a better team than they were... they needed to take high risks to win. While it signaled confidence in a given play 3 times, overall a lack of confidence that they could win simply by taking points when they could.

The correct decision at the end of the half would be to kick the field goal. I don't think it is fear, it is more about respect, with the thinking being you are not going to beat the Huskies in Seattle kicking field goals. But with a 4th & 3 at the UW 3-yard line, coming off a turnover, and knowing that you are going to get the ball to start the second half, kicking a field goal and cutting the lead to one point is the wiser choice. But if you are going to be aggressive, the play call has to be better than the option that they gave Bo Nix. Lanning admitted after the game that he should have kicked the field goal. He is a young head coach; he will learn from it.

Well, of course Lanning said after the game that he should have kicked the FG. They lost the game. There's going to be blame somewhere. He could have said, "There was only a 14% chance of us not converting any of the 3. So this is on player execution and/or play calling." But one of those is a jerk move (calling out players in a presser) and one of those is admitting a deficiency in a fundamental part of your job.

Personally, I would have kicked the FG at the end of the first half. Part of the benefit of going for it on a 4th and goal is that if you're not successful you turn the ball over to the offense deep in their own territory. As it was the very end of the half, Oregon missed out that benefit. Also, missing out on points entirely there meant not punishing Washington at all for the interception.

But, essentially I think it's wrong to call any of the moves "poor decision making." Converting any of the 3 greatly increases Oregon's chances of winning. And you had about an 86% chance of converting one of the 3.

(10-14-2023 08:11 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Florida St has looked bad.

Ah, way to stay on brand here.

No. UCF has "looked bad." Even A&M has "looked bad." You can make the claim that FSU hasn't consistently looked like an elite-level team, but there's a WIDE gulf between that and "bad."

(10-15-2023 09:34 AM)teamvsn Wrote:  

(10-15-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-14-2023 08:52 PM)superdeluxe Wrote:  

(10-11-2023 02:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m curious on what everyone thinks about the Wash-Ore winner. How high do they jump in the polls as a product of beating a top 10 team?

All eyes was on this game, so if people are seriously going to do the polls the dawgs should move up a couple and the ducks should move down a couple

I didn't see anything that would make me move Oregon down.

Poor decision making by the coach. But he's probably learned his lesson ?

Every time he went for it on 4th down, it was the correct move, but his offense couldn't execute even once against a bad UW defense. A bit of bad luck, a bit of the UW defense stepping up at the right time, but it's hard to blame Lanning for that.