All is quiet...for now. The AAC's attempt at wooing Army will prove successful. I believe Army will join the American for the 2025 season.

Out west, Oregon State and Washington State will ultimately invite the MW west schools to join the former under the Pac-12 banner. The MW, as a result, dissolves.

Ultimately, fan and donor pressure guides the hand of the administration at UMass as they decide to join the MAC with Delaware for all-sports.

At this point, Gonzaga has a crucial decision to make: stay in the WCC, join the new Pac-12, or join the Big East. Though some Big East administrators are hesitant, they decide to extend an invite to Gonzaga to bolster the new television contract. Gonzaga accepts.

The WCC is down to 8 members and reloads by adding Grand Canyon, Seattle, Cal Baptist, and Denver. This is an aggressive addition, but the league wants to cut the WAC out as a competitor.

Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

Let's head back to the Summit. Down to 8 schools, the league tries to pry other schools away from their individual conferences and ultimately succeeds in adding UT-Arlington and Utah Valley. With momentum on their side, the league adds Southern Utah and Utah Tech who both make desperation moves.

The Big South then adds Queens to get back to 9 members. It is a good fit for both parties.

The Horizon then gets in on the fun and adds Bellarmine to get to 12 members.

The Southland then sees a massive opportunity and invites the four remaining WAC schools (UT-RGV, Abilene Christian, SFA, and Tarleton State) to get to 14 members in a geographically compact league. The WAC dissolves.

The MAAC is now back to 10 members. The league decides to expand by adding Wagner. Wagner becomes an affiliate of the Big South-OVC football league.

The ASUN is down to 10 members after its two departures. The UAC is
able to stay intact as the 5 ASUN members and Utah Tech and Southern Utah are still committed.

The NEC is down to 8 members with the departure of Wagner. The league dips into the Division 2 ranks and adds Bentley to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 364 members, FBS with 135 members, FCS with 129 members. Division 1 is now comprised of 30 conferences.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

You may have missed that CAAF has added Bryant starting next season. They will be at 16 so no reason to bring in Gardner-Webb.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  All is quiet...for now. The AAC's attempt at wooing Army will prove successful. I believe Army will join the American for the 2025 season.

Out west, Oregon State and Washington State will ultimately invite the MW west schools to join the former under the Pac-12 banner. The MW, as a result, dissolves.

Ultimately, fan and donor pressure guides the hand of the administration at UMass as they decide to join the MAC with Delaware for all-sports.

At this point, Gonzaga has a crucial decision to make: stay in the WCC, join the new Pac-12, or join the Big East. Though some Big East administrators are hesitant, they decide to extend an invite to Gonzaga to bolster the new television contract. Gonzaga accepts.

The WCC is down to 8 members and reloads by adding Grand Canyon, Seattle, Cal Baptist, and Denver. This is an aggressive addition, but the league wants to cut the WAC out as a competitor.

Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

Let's head back to the Summit. Down to 8 schools, the league tries to pry other schools away from their individual conferences and ultimately succeeds in adding UT-Arlington and Utah Valley. With momentum on their side, the league adds Southern Utah and Utah Tech who both make desperation moves.

The Big South then adds Queens to get back to 9 members. It is a good fit for both parties.

The Horizon then gets in on the fun and adds Bellarmine to get to 12 members.

The Southland then sees a massive opportunity and invites the four remaining WAC schools (UT-RGV, Abilene Christian, SFA, and Tarleton State) to get to 14 members in a geographically compact league. The WAC dissolves.

The MAAC is now back to 10 members. The league decides to expand by adding Wagner. Wagner becomes an affiliate of the Big South-OVC football league.

The ASUN is down to 10 members after its two departures. The UAC is
able to stay intact as the 5 ASUN members and Utah Tech and Southern Utah are still committed.

The NEC is down to 8 members with the departure of Wagner. The league dips into the Division 2 ranks and adds Bentley to get back to 9 members.

This leaves Division 1 with 364 members, FBS with 135 members, FCS with 129 members. Division 1 is now comprised of 30 conferences.

AAC adds Army for the 2025 season.
> AAC can invite from TXST, FIU, GSU, App St. later to get back to 14...

IF PAC partial merges with MWC...just "invites the MW west schools to join the former under the Pac-12 banner"
THEN PAC gets back up to 8...
> nPAC invite AAC TX 3 + TXST (SBC) to get back to 12...

IF PAC Reverse Merges with MWC THEN
> PAC invites all 12 from MWC...
>> Hawaii (FB Only)...
>PAC invites Gonzaga as Non-FB member to bolster the basketball side of the conference and to complement Hawaii FB Only membership...
*my add
> PAC under MWC admin...
> PAC[/b} offices relocate to former [b]MWC offices...
> PAC inherit modified MWC media contract...

IF WCC loses Gonzaga THEN
> WCC down to 8
> WCC adds Cal Baptist, Seattle, & GCU...
> WCC goes to 11...

IF WAC loses Cal Baptist, Seattle, & GCU THEN
> WAC down to 8 members...stand pat...
>> UVU & UTA Non FB remaining members
>> UTRGV FB (2025)
> WAC always on the hunt for new members
>> Prefers FB playing members to protect against further membership lose...

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Ultimately, fan and donor pressure guides the hand of the administration at UMass as they decide to join the MAC with Delaware for all-sports.

I think WKU is more likely than UMass.

The MAC is going to want someone who is willing to sign up for the long term, and I don't think that's UMass.

(10-05-2023 11:10 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

You may have missed that CAAF has added Bryant starting next season. They will be at 16 so no reason to bring in Gardner-Webb.

Charleston will not leave the CAA as they fear the A10 will be losing a few teams. Might as well be king of the CAA than fighting it out in the A10 for a bid.

My gut says UMass and Delaware to the MAC in late spring, say May, 2024.

(10-06-2023 08:20 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 11:10 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

You may have missed that CAAF has added Bryant starting next season. They will be at 16 so no reason to bring in Gardner-Webb.

Charleston will not leave the CAA as they fear the A10 will be losing a few teams. Might as well be king of the CAA than fighting it out in the A10 for a bid.

My gut says UMass and Delaware to the MAC in late spring, say May, 2024.

That doesn't make sense. If Charleston has a chance to upgrade to the A-10, they will bolt.

(10-06-2023 09:02 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(10-06-2023 08:20 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 11:10 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

You may have missed that CAAF has added Bryant starting next season. They will be at 16 so no reason to bring in Gardner-Webb.

Charleston will not leave the CAA as they fear the A10 will be losing a few teams. Might as well be king of the CAA than fighting it out in the A10 for a bid.

My gut says UMass and Delaware to the MAC in late spring, say May, 2024.

That doesn't make sense. If Charleston has a chance to upgrade to the A-10, they will bolt.

Charleston would take an A-10 invite in less than a second.

Time will tell, but not what I heard from a heavy hitter, and the AD simply said the CofC rumor is false.

Sent from my SM-G990U using CSNbbs mobile app

Can we get Dayton and St. Louis into the Big East already? And WKu and MTSU to MAC too.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  .The Big South then adds Queens to get back to 9 members. It is a good fit for both parties.

The Horizon then gets in on the fun and adds Bellarmine to get to 12 members.

It really isn't though and this is a common misnomer. Queens had the chance to go to the Big South when they first moved up but they feel the Atlantic Sun is a higher level of competition in hoops which I would definitely agree with among other sports. Not a chance they'd be moving before their full transition period is over either.

Bellarmine to Horizon seems like a decent fit but I'm not sure if they actually want to go there. The Horizon League is not as strong as it was 5-10 years ago. They just wait another 4-6 years until the MVC gives them an invite.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  At this point, Gonzaga has a crucial decision to make: stay in the WCC, join the new Pac-12, or join the Big East. Though some Big East administrators are hesitant, they decide to extend an invite to Gonzaga to bolster the new television contract. Gonzaga accepts.

The WCC is down to 8 members and reloads by adding Grand Canyon, Seattle, Cal Baptist, and Denver. This is an aggressive addition, but the league wants to cut the WAC out as a competitor.

The Southland then sees a massive opportunity and invites the four remaining WAC schools (UT-RGV, Abilene Christian, SFA, and Tarleton State) to get to 14 members in a geographically compact league. The WAC dissolves.

Not a chance those ACU, SFA and Tarleton are leaving the WAC for the Southland. That's a huge step down in competition.Most of the remaining Texas schools like being in the WAC and would only leave for an FBS invite. Southland has absolutely no leverage there. It would make absolutely no sense. Those latter two are looking towards CUSA eventually would be my bet.

The WAC will have some back fill options after next year with Tarleton, Utah Tech completing their transition period. I don't see the Summit getting any of the Utah schools other than maybe Utah Valley. They just don't have many options now.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

Charleston joining the A-10 wouldn't be announced till after the 2023-24 season because the CAA bans schools leaving beforehand from post season play.

(10-06-2023 11:20 AM)Mid-Major Hoops Enthusiast Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  .The Big South then adds Queens to get back to 9 members. It is a good fit for both parties.

The Horizon then gets in on the fun and adds Bellarmine to get to 12 members.

It really isn't though and this is a common misnomer. Queens had the chance to go to the Big South when they first moved up but they feel the Atlantic Sun is a higher level of competition in hoops which I would definitely agree with among other sports. Not a chance they'd be moving before their full transition period is over either.

Bellarmine to Horizon seems like a decent fit but I'm not sure if they actually want to go there. The Horizon League is not as strong as it was 5-10 years ago. They just wait another 4-6 years until the MVC gives them an invite.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  At this point, Gonzaga has a crucial decision to make: stay in the WCC, join the new Pac-12, or join the Big East. Though some Big East administrators are hesitant, they decide to extend an invite to Gonzaga to bolster the new television contract. Gonzaga accepts.

The WCC is down to 8 members and reloads by adding Grand Canyon, Seattle, Cal Baptist, and Denver. This is an aggressive addition, but the league wants to cut the WAC out as a competitor.

The Southland then sees a massive opportunity and invites the four remaining WAC schools (UT-RGV, Abilene Christian, SFA, and Tarleton State) to get to 14 members in a geographically compact league. The WAC dissolves.

Not a chance those ACU, SFA and Tarleton are leaving the WAC for the Southland. That's a huge step down in competition.Most of the remaining Texas schools like being in the WAC and would only leave for an FBS invite. Southland has absolutely no leverage there. It would make absolutely no sense. Those latter two are looking towards CUSA eventually would be my bet.

The WAC will have some back fill options after next year with Tarleton, Utah Tech completing their transition period. I don't see the Summit getting any of the Utah schools other than maybe Utah Valley. They just don't have many options now.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

Charleston joining the A-10 wouldn't be announced till after the 2023-24 season because the CAA bans schools leaving beforehand from post season play.

Quote:Not a chance those ACU, SFA and Tarleton are leaving the WAC for the Southland. That's a huge step down in competition.Most of the remaining Texas schools like being in the WAC and would only leave for an FBS invite. Southland has absolutely no leverage there. It would make absolutely no sense. Those latter two are looking towards CUSA eventually would be my bet.

The WAC will have some back fill options after next year with Tarleton, Utah Tech completing their transition period. I don't see the Summit getting any of the Utah schools other than maybe Utah Valley. They just don't have many options now.

LIKE ^^^

(10-06-2023 11:20 AM)Mid-Major Hoops Enthusiast Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  .The Big South then adds Queens to get back to 9 members. It is a good fit for both parties.

The Horizon then gets in on the fun and adds Bellarmine to get to 12 members.

It really isn't though and this is a common misnomer. Queens had the chance to go to the Big South when they first moved up but they feel the Atlantic Sun is a higher level of competition in hoops which I would definitely agree with among other sports. Not a chance they'd be moving before their full transition period is over either.

Bellarmine to Horizon seems like a decent fit but I'm not sure if they actually want to go there. The Horizon League is not as strong as it was 5-10 years ago. They just wait another 4-6 years until the MVC gives them an invite.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  At this point, Gonzaga has a crucial decision to make: stay in the WCC, join the new Pac-12, or join the Big East. Though some Big East administrators are hesitant, they decide to extend an invite to Gonzaga to bolster the new television contract. Gonzaga accepts.

The WCC is down to 8 members and reloads by adding Grand Canyon, Seattle, Cal Baptist, and Denver. This is an aggressive addition, but the league wants to cut the WAC out as a competitor.

The Southland then sees a massive opportunity and invites the four remaining WAC schools (UT-RGV, Abilene Christian, SFA, and Tarleton State) to get to 14 members in a geographically compact league. The WAC dissolves.

Not a chance those ACU, SFA and Tarleton are leaving the WAC for the Southland. That's a huge step down in competition.Most of the remaining Texas schools like being in the WAC and would only leave for an FBS invite. Southland has absolutely no leverage there. It would make absolutely no sense. Those latter two are looking towards CUSA eventually would be my bet.

The WAC will have some back fill options after next year with Tarleton, Utah Tech completing their transition period. I don't see the Summit getting any of the Utah schools other than maybe Utah Valley. They just don't have many options now.

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

Charleston joining the A-10 wouldn't be announced till after the 2023-24 season because the CAA bans schools leaving beforehand from post season play.

I could see potential for the Summit adding football and picking up WAC FB schools and UCA.

(10-06-2023 03:40 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Ultimately, fan and donor pressure guides the hand of the administration at UMass as they decide to join the MAC with Delaware for all-sports.

I think WKU is more likely than UMass.

The MAC is going to want someone who is willing to sign up for the long term, and I don't think that's UMass.

i don't think this is true at all. The conditions had changed massively from when WKU first wanted the MAC. First off, the current CUSA is rated slightly higher than the MAC in football in Massey Composite Index. CUSA has a new TV deal which is much better than the last one. The basketball tournament was moved to Huntsville, Alabama, not that far away. They've also added a lot of programs.

(10-06-2023 09:38 PM)sstaedtler88 Wrote:  

(10-06-2023 03:40 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Ultimately, fan and donor pressure guides the hand of the administration at UMass as they decide to join the MAC with Delaware for all-sports.

I think WKU is more likely than UMass.

The MAC is going to want someone who is willing to sign up for the long term, and I don't think that's UMass.

i don't think this is true at all. The conditions had changed massively from when WKU first wanted the MAC. First off, the current CUSA is rated slightly higher than the MAC in football in Massey Composite Index. CUSA has a new TV deal which is much better than the last one. The basketball tournament was moved to Huntsville, Alabama, not that far away. They've also added a lot of programs.

Perhaps, but schools tend to favor stability. And whatever we want to say about the MAC, it's found its niche and has been one of the most stable conferences.

1. Army joins the AAC

Expect terms to be completed by the end of this month.

2. Pac-12 schools come to a settlement on assets and payments. Then OSU and WSU join the MWC within a month of that settlement.

We are currently in the stage of positioning, where all parties are working to gain leverage for the inevitable negotiations. There will be several court filings and counter filings. An endless number of issues, suits and counter suits are likely. But the reality is all twelve schools need a resolution much sooner than the courts will provide, and much more certain.

The hardest of deadlines is probably around March 1st when the MWC announces the 2024 football schedule dates for its schools. Working backwards from that, say 6 weeks to be in the MWC schedule smoothing process, we get a date around MLK weekend as a drop dead join date. A decision to move would predate that by at least a week or two, which is New Years. But Mid-December to Mid-January are problematic given the school breaks. While mid-January is absolute drop dead for 2024 football deal, last week of November, when next years advanced ticket sales drive begins is something of a soft deadline.

Summed up, I expect nothing much until November when OSU and WSU start having internal pressure to get a resolution. Football coaches and Basketball coaches need to know where they will be to compete in the transfer portal and to stem the outflow, and to recruit next year's incoming players. Ticket office needs to start the early sales process, to lock down as many returning ticket holders as possible by the last football game of the season; fans feel little pressure to buy tickets during the down months after November. But OSU and WSU do not want to show their hand, as they need that threat of a continued Pac-12 to get the best settlement.

Settlement in November, MWC membership in December, maybe delayed to January as negotiations with CBS and FOX for some compensation for the two schools is worked out with the MWC. It could also kick off new media contract talks a couple years early for the MWC.

The saga of Notre Dame and NBC will begin, followed by the sagas of Clemson and Florida State. These are 2024 dramas. Popcorn ready

(10-06-2023 09:02 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(10-06-2023 08:20 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 11:10 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

You may have missed that CAAF has added Bryant starting next season. They will be at 16 so no reason to bring in Gardner-Webb.

Charleston will not leave the CAA as they fear the A10 will be losing a few teams. Might as well be king of the CAA than fighting it out in the A10 for a bid.

My gut says UMass and Delaware to the MAC in late spring, say May, 2024.

That doesn't make sense. If Charleston has a chance to upgrade to the A-10, they will bolt.

The A10 really isn’t much of an upgrade anymore. Both A10 and CAA are recently one bid leagues. Charleston also isn’t rolling in money right now for exit fees and additional travel costs.

I’m doubting Delaware leaves either. There’s been no reason for them to wait. It’s not like their basketball season is worth the $5m they just let pass. No offense to UMass, but following them isn’t really a recipe for success and fact is, Delaware doesn’t have a logical place to move.

Time will tell but if I were running Delaware, I’d put my energy toward a G5 mid Atlantic football league. They could probably entice W&M, Villanova, Stony Brook and UNH to join in as well. Then throw in UMass, Temple - possibly Army. Football only would allow UD and the others to remain in the CAA for all other sports.

(10-07-2023 09:55 AM)Sitting bull Wrote:  

(10-06-2023 09:02 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(10-06-2023 08:20 AM)Steve1981 Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 11:10 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(10-05-2023 09:31 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Coming back east, the A-10 adds Charleston (thanks, trilly). The league then stands pat at 15 schools.

These moves leave the CAA with 12 schools and CAA football with 15 schools. The league reaches out again to Howard who declines. If the league's last moves are anything to go by, the target numbers are 14 for Olympic sports and 16 for football. Ultimately, Fairfield (for Olympic sports) and Gardner Webb (for all sports) are invited.

You may have missed that CAAF has added Bryant starting next season. They will be at 16 so no reason to bring in Gardner-Webb.

Charleston will not leave the CAA as they fear the A10 will be losing a few teams. Might as well be king of the CAA than fighting it out in the A10 for a bid.

My gut says UMass and Delaware to the MAC in late spring, say May, 2024.

That doesn't make sense. If Charleston has a chance to upgrade to the A-10, they will bolt.

The A10 really isn’t much of an upgrade anymore. Both A10 and CAA are recently one bid leagues. Charleston also isn’t rolling in money right now for exit fees and additional travel costs.

I’m doubting Delaware leaves either. There’s been no reason for them to wait. It’s not like their basketball season is worth the $5m they just let pass. No offense to UMass, but following them isn’t really a recipe for success and fact is, Delaware doesn’t have a logical place to move.

Time will tell but if I were running Delaware, I’d put my energy toward a G5 mid Atlantic football league. They could probably entice W&M, Villanova, Stony Brook and UNH to join in as well. Then throw in UMass, Temple - possibly Army. Football only would allow UD and the others to remain in the CAA for all other sports.

Hm, yes. The A10, which had a very down year in order to get a 1-bid season for the first time in ~20 years is the same as the CAA that hasn't had a multi-bid season since 2010 (when they still had VCU and George Mason).

Here's my take on what happens next:

Oregon State and Washington State and the entire MWC merge under the PAC banner. New Mexico State and UTEP are added as full members, while Gonzaga is added for basketball. The WCC adds Cal Baptist, Grand Canyon, and Seattle for basketball.

The AAC adds Army as a football only member. The MAC adds Delaware and Western Kentucky as full members. The C-USA adds Eastern Kentucky and Stephen F. Austin as full members.

Now, here's where things get crazy:

Howard leaves the MEAC for the CAA. NC Central, Norfolk State and South Carolina leave and join the BSCOVC association, while Delaware State and Morgan State, along with Coppin State and UMES leave and join the NEC. The MEAC ceases operations.

The ASUN, Southland and WAC add from D2. The ASUN adds Valdosta State and West Florida. The Southland adds Texas A&M-Kingsville and West Texas A&M. The WAC adds Angelo, State, Central Washington, Western Colorado and Western Oregon