I think it's time to get serious about some of these schools being ready to buy their ways out of the GOR. Just like the PAC, one year ago there was all sorts of rumors and many here and elsewhere thought it was much ado about nothing, they were wrong. With all of the rhetoric coming out of FSU coupled with magnificent 7 and the Bay area school no votes, I think there's real fire here.

If I'm the SEC, I'm gunning for 4 schools, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Duke. No it doesn't block the B1G from ND or grabbing a southern school or two, but it does bring in the 2 biggest football and basketball brands.

If I'm the B1G I'm pouring honey in all of the same schools ears plus Notre Dame. My case would be that ESPN and the ACC trapped them and we're willing to help pay the exit fee in some manner. National conference with max exposure.

Who wins this battle is anyone's guess but it's time to come to grips with the fact that this battle is quickly approaching.

(09-27-2023 01:40 PM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  For whatever it’s worth

Yes, because South Carolina and secessions work so well

It's not inconceivable that the ACC's rush to 18 is in preparation of losing one, two, or three teams with an absurd buyout ($300-$400 million each) in lieu of the GOR.

(09-27-2023 01:55 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

Ironclad (adjective): Impossible to contradict, weaken, or change

The Titanic is unsinkable!

(09-27-2023 02:33 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 02:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 02:06 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Clemson is a great school and a has a great fanbase, but Clemson at 6-6 in 2036 several years removed from their current run has a very different value than the Clemson of the past few years. This is of course true of most schools, but in the SEC Clemson would be a second school in a small state. They definitely don't have the market, and I guess I wonder if they have a strong enough brand at this point to get over a downturn? (Honest question)

If so, then could the SEC grab say FSU and UNC and be done? Or perhaps FSU, Miami, UNC and ? (UVA or Virginia Tech?)

Clemson is the equivalent of Tennessee or Auburn. They did have an MNC before Dabo. They were big rivals with UGA before the SEC moved to 8 games with the expansion to 12.

I'm guessing its a lot of younger people who don't see their value. Its like evaluating Texas on 2010-2022 or Alabama in the 10 years before Nick Saban or Tennessee post Phil Fulmer.

As a TN post-Fulmer fan, that seems like a fair evaluation. But I guess what I am saying is with limited spots especially at only 20, UNC, Miami, and FSU could be the first three, and then Clemson has to hope that being Auburn or TN is good enough versus another new state in say VT or doubling down in North Carolina, etc. TN and Auburn are great brands, but if you have a chance to take TN or Alabama, you are taking Bama. Don't know who the Bama could be a decade from now.

I don't see 20 as a hard and fast number. Not saying that they definitely will go past 20, but I could see it happening.

(09-27-2023 03:18 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 02:33 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 02:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 02:06 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Clemson is a great school and a has a great fanbase, but Clemson at 6-6 in 2036 several years removed from their current run has a very different value than the Clemson of the past few years. This is of course true of most schools, but in the SEC Clemson would be a second school in a small state. They definitely don't have the market, and I guess I wonder if they have a strong enough brand at this point to get over a downturn? (Honest question)

If so, then could the SEC grab say FSU and UNC and be done? Or perhaps FSU, Miami, UNC and ? (UVA or Virginia Tech?)

Clemson is the equivalent of Tennessee or Auburn. They did have an MNC before Dabo. They were big rivals with UGA before the SEC moved to 8 games with the expansion to 12.

I'm guessing its a lot of younger people who don't see their value. Its like evaluating Texas on 2010-2022 or Alabama in the 10 years before Nick Saban or Tennessee post Phil Fulmer.

As a TN post-Fulmer fan, that seems like a fair evaluation. But I guess what I am saying is with limited spots especially at only 20, UNC, Miami, and FSU could be the first three, and then Clemson has to hope that being Auburn or TN is good enough versus another new state in say VT or doubling down in North Carolina, etc. TN and Auburn are great brands, but if you have a chance to take TN or Alabama, you are taking Bama. Don't know who the Bama could be a decade from now.

I don't see 20 as a hard and fast number. Not saying that they definitely will go past 20, but I could see it happening.

I don't think there are that many that add value. And I think they will be real slow to get beyond 20. Every member beyond 16 causes issues for championships and scheduling.

I don't think 20 is a hard and fast limit, but I have never heard any decision makers discuss numbers beyond 20. You may hear an ACC AD talk about the Big 10 maybe going to 24, but you don't hear that from Big 10 ADs and presidents. Nobody who is actually having the address the issue.

Is Clemson value add for the SEC? I know they have a pro-rata clause but Its got to have some stipulations. Otherwise, SEC do all of college football a favor and invite everyone in.

If the SEC gets Clemson, Florida St, and North Carolina, #4 almost doesn't matter. For different reasons, I could see the SEC taking any of Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, or Virginia. Strategically, it should be Miami to prevent the B1G from having a foothold in the state. Georgia Tech would be another strategic addition but much less so than Miami. Duke would strengthen the academics and basketball profile of the SEC. Virginia is "North Carolina lite" as an expansion candidate.

If Miami goes to the SEC, the B1G's jump to 20 would be Virginia plus Stanford.

The XII would get to 20 with Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina St, and Virginia Tech.

That leaves: Boston College, California, Oregon St, Pittsburgh, SMU, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Washington St, and - of course - Notre Dame as remaining power schools without a home. Here would be my guess, assuming Notre Dame wanted to remain independent and the P3 didn't want the others:

To Big East: Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
> Gets the conference to 16 schools.
To Big West: California, Oregon St, Washington St
> Gets the conference to 14 schools.
To MWC: SMU + Memphis, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UTSA
* Football-only.
To Sun Belt: East Carolina, North Texas, South Florida, UAB
To CUSA: Charlotte, Florida Atlantic
To A10: Temple

-----------

The Big East resurrects football with:
Army*, Boston College, California*, Connecticut, Massachusetts*, Navy*, Oregon St*, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Temple*, Wake Forest, Washington St*
* Football-only: Patriot (Army, Navy), Big West (California, Oregon St, Washington St), A10 (Massachusetts, Temple)
> Notre Dame has similar deal like the ACC.

(09-27-2023 02:52 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  I think it's time to get serious about some of these schools being ready to buy their ways out of the GOR. Just like the PAC, one year ago there was all sorts of rumors and many here and elsewhere thought it was much ado about nothing, they were wrong. With all of the rhetoric coming out of FSU coupled with magnificent 7 and the Bay area school no votes, I think there's real fire here.

If I'm the SEC, I'm gunning for 4 schools, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Duke. No it doesn't block the B1G from ND or grabbing a southern school or two, but it does bring in the 2 biggest football and basketball brands.

If I'm the B1G I'm pouring honey in all of the same schools ears plus Notre Dame. My case would be that ESPN and the ACC trapped them and we're willing to help pay the exit fee in some manner. National conference with max exposure.

Who wins this battle is anyone's guess but it's time to come to grips with the fact that this battle is quickly approaching.

How, exactly, did ESPN and the ACC trap Notre Dame? Notre Dame is not part of the ACC's deal with ESPN. Their home games are televised on NBC. As for the ACC, ND's GoR doesn't extend to football for the same reason as above, so it stands to reason that ND's buyout on the GoR would be considerably cheaper than that for most if not all of the marquee programs in the ACC.

Admittedly, I'm not sure exactly what value the ACC would set on ND's contractual provision not to join another conference for football (probably pretty high), but I think there's a relatively inexpensive way around that. ND simply would leave the ACC, buy out the GoR and remain independent in football, at least in the short term.

Clemson is 2-2 and facing Syracuse (4-0) this weekend at Syracuse.
Clemson barely beat Syracuse last year (by 6 at Clemson).



Somebody had to say something to divert attention away from the season.

(09-27-2023 01:40 PM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  

But the big question is: Which Tuesday?

(09-27-2023 03:36 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 02:52 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  I think it's time to get serious about some of these schools being ready to buy their ways out of the GOR. Just like the PAC, one year ago there was all sorts of rumors and many here and elsewhere thought it was much ado about nothing, they were wrong. With all of the rhetoric coming out of FSU coupled with magnificent 7 and the Bay area school no votes, I think there's real fire here.

If I'm the SEC, I'm gunning for 4 schools, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Duke. No it doesn't block the B1G from ND or grabbing a southern school or two, but it does bring in the 2 biggest football and basketball brands.

If I'm the B1G I'm pouring honey in all of the same schools ears plus Notre Dame. My case would be that ESPN and the ACC trapped them and we're willing to help pay the exit fee in some manner. National conference with max exposure.

Who wins this battle is anyone's guess but it's time to come to grips with the fact that this battle is quickly approaching.

How, exactly, did ESPN and the ACC trap Notre Dame? Notre Dame is not part of the ACC's deal with ESPN. Their home games are televised on NBC. As for the ACC, ND's GoR doesn't extend to football for the same reason as above, so it stands to reason that ND's buyout on the GoR would be considerably cheaper than that for most if not all of the marquee programs in the ACC.

Admittedly, I'm not sure exactly what value the ACC would set on ND's contractual provision not to join another conference for football (probably pretty high), but I think there's a relatively inexpensive way around that. ND simply would leave the ACC, buy out the GoR and remain independent in football, at least in the short term.

Yeah, the "trap" was rumored to be ESPN backtracking on FSU to the SEC in order to keep ND as an ACC partial back in '12. "If FSU leaves, we're not signing up". But the point might be the same in regards to things being messy enough that all the parties have a vested interest in making a deal.

(09-27-2023 02:52 PM)SouthEastAlaska Wrote:  I think it's time to get serious about some of these schools being ready to buy their ways out of the GOR. Just like the PAC, one year ago there was all sorts of rumors and many here and elsewhere thought it was much ado about nothing, they were wrong. With all of the rhetoric coming out of FSU coupled with magnificent 7 and the Bay area school no votes, I think there's real fire here.

If I'm the SEC, I'm gunning for 4 schools, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Duke. No it doesn't block the B1G from ND or grabbing a southern school or two, but it does bring in the 2 biggest football and basketball brands.

If I'm the B1G I'm pouring honey in all of the same schools ears plus Notre Dame. My case would be that ESPN and the ACC trapped them and we're willing to help pay the exit fee in some manner. National conference with max exposure.

Who wins this battle is anyone's guess but it's time to come to grips with the fact that this battle is quickly approaching.

The battle isn't approaching. It's been being waged behind the scenes for months now, think 14 months. I can't see the Big 10 going heavy after Clemson. I can see them looking hard at FSU and deciding that the path of least resistance is through Miami.

Also, I think the Big 10 and SEC both round out at 24 schools. It's an inventory equivalency issue where there would be a slight gap at 24 and 22 in terms of what you had to sell.

And another point, the carriers will have a lot to say about who goes where because they will be negotiating to make any move possible. And because of that I think you nailed the 4 schools ESPN would most likely shelter, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina are the brands the Mouse would want to keep.

Miami and Georgia Tech would be the other two the SEC would hold interest in because they would give the SEC a Deep South monopoly and they will be essential to keeping the Big 10 out of our advertising markets.

There's 6 of the SEC's 8. Numbers 7 and 8 will depend upon what Virginia wants to do. If Virginia wants to stay with North Carolina and Duke then Virginia Tech and N.C. State head to the Big 12. California, Stanford, and Notre Dame to the Big 10 which might pick up Pitt to give Notre Dame more exposure in New England where Rutgers will help and Maryland won't hurt. There's 4. Kansas and Colorado bridge the Big 10 to the West for 6, and from there they can take the two Arizona schools.

The fits are more natural.

ESPN and the SEC will work in acquiring a mix of ESPN desires and SEC concerns. What the Big 10 gets to the East will be that which isn't worked out in a group move to the SEC.

Besides the natural interest here is North vs South as that sells and produces eyeballs anytime it happens.

BTW the original rumor which I heard, and which seemed to have legs was that Clemson's and FSU's departures would be announced at halftime of the Clemson/FSU game. Apparently, details weren't as well worked out as they may be now. This story might speed up the process a bit.

Whether a standard contract or a GOR, any can be altered if all parties to it are in agreement. The trick to this was not a loophole, but rather consensus. If the parties involved all have landing places, don't lose revenue in the process, and know they have done as well as they could have hoped to do, and the negotiated exit costs are reasonable enough for the departing schools, and profitable enough for the remaining ones, it happens. There are many here who love to make it sound impossible. Yet, American business does this all of the time.

I think it's all done by 2025.

(09-27-2023 02:06 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Clemson is a great school and a has a great fanbase, but Clemson at 6-6 in 2036 several years removed from their current run has a very different value than the Clemson of the past few years. This is of course true of most schools, but in the SEC Clemson would be a second school in a small state. They definitely don't have the market, and I guess I wonder if they have a strong enough brand at this point to get over a downturn? (Honest question)

If so, then could the SEC grab say FSU and UNC and be done? Or perhaps FSU, Miami, UNC and ? (UVA or Virginia Tech?)

Clemson is 14th all-time in wins among FBS schools behind only Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas, Oklahoma, Penn State, Nebraska, Georgia, USC, Tennessee, LSU, and Auburn.

I'm really not sure where this idea that Clemson is only the last decade comes from. They've been winning for quite a while, and they're in some pretty rarified company.

Clemson is 0-2 in the ACC and got destroyed by Duke this year. It may be one bad year but Clemson's bargaining power with the Big Ten and SEC is probably as low as it's been in recent years. I've said if I'm the Big Ten I'd want Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, etc and that was when Clemson was still a decently good football program. A mediocre Clemson football school is probably one of the worst expansion Big Ten candidates out there among ACC schools. I'd take Virginia Tech if I couldn't get UVa and NC State if I couldn't get UNC over a mediocre at football Clemson. As for the SEC, they already have the state of South Carolina and unlike Florida, a second school in South Carolina isn't anywhere near as valuable as a second school in Florida and the SEC doesn't have as much to gain keeping the Big Ten out of South Carolina as they do out of Florida.

(09-27-2023 01:50 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 01:40 PM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  For whatever it’s worth

Just a thought, could WSU/OSU be dragging things out waiting to see what happens with the ACC?

Doubt it, but they could be hearing rumors. Oliver Luck is as connected as anybody and he is consulting with them.

That would be quite the fallout…2-4 leave ACC 2.0, then they add WOSU to become ACC 3.0.

(09-27-2023 02:06 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  Clemson is a great school and a has a great fanbase, but Clemson at 6-6 in 2036 several years removed from their current run has a very different value than the Clemson of the past few years. This is of course true of most schools, but in the SEC Clemson would be a second school in a small state. They definitely don't have the market, and I guess I wonder if they have a strong enough brand at this point to get over a downturn? (Honest question)

If so, then could the SEC grab say FSU and UNC and be done? Or perhaps FSU, Miami, UNC and ? (UVA or Virginia Tech?)

Clemson at 6-6 still has the largest following and largest fan base outside of the P2 and (probably) FSU. They’d be like Miami but with a better location, better fan enthusiasm, and far more recent success.

Why not just have all of FBS under one tv media contract with multiple networks? Then you could give the money out to the top teams who have the better record. That would have meant Boise State would have gotten more money than Oklahoma did when Boise State beat them in the Fiesta Bowl.

(09-27-2023 02:59 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(09-27-2023 01:40 PM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  For whatever it’s worth

Yes, because South Carolina and secessions work so well

FWIW, Clemson recommended USC to the SEC when they were first approached approached 30 years ago. There is no way that USC somehow just forgot that.

(09-27-2023 01:05 PM)unalions Wrote:  Clemson and FSU (and likely others) will be in the SEC within 3-5 years

And making no money. That is the only chance.