I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

(09-24-2023 11:54 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  Definitely nervous about this one. JMU has been consistent in getting the W's, but really inconsistent throughout the course of each game. USA has been inconsistent game to game, they smoked Oklahoma State but got smoked by Tulane and lost to Central Michigan... Which version of South Alabama shows up is gonna be a huge variable, and if the right USA shows up then we're gonna need the right JMU to show for the whole game.

Agree on the premise, I’d only give it a bit of a twist

Whether the right USA shows up will depend a LOTon whether the right JMU shows up.
We’ve more than proven we can compete with a lot of these squads, just gotta show up for the show

I’m confident they will, esp being back home for a change

(09-24-2023 09:18 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

So, a 4-0 team with a three game road trip that included a win over a P5 going up against a 2-2 team at home can only muster up an opening line of -1. Even at -4.5, they aren't seeing a 4-0 team, they see a team who has some things to fix and not ready to give credentials to their record. 3 points are almost an automatic for the home team, which was saying they think S. Alabama is a 2 point better team or that now with the line at 4.5, we're a 1.5 better team over a 2-2 team. Argue all you want, they're not convinced we're as good as our record.

Hey, if you want to be favored by double digits every game, go join the CAA or something.

(09-25-2023 06:29 AM)CarRamrod Wrote:  Hey, if you want to be favored by double digits every game, go join the CAA or something.

Yep.
We moved up for this. We didn't move up because it would get easier.
It's true that we have not played our best. But a good amount of that is contributed to the opponents making good plays on us. Most of the time in FCS we could just look in the mirror and see the problem. Now it's not so easy.
There are absolutely things to clean up. The great news is that we have room to improve, yet are still undefeated.
South Alabama is going to be tough, but I believe we can get it done.
I have faith in the coaching staff.
We have an obligation as a fan base to make Saturday a big time home field advantage. Get there early. Be loud.

UVA is better than their record IMO, same goes for USU. To play Iowa to within 10 points is no small task given how physical they are. Troy just beat the top team in CUSA. Some of the margin of victory is a function of the quality of the opponent. We seem to be performing about to expectations if you believe everything Vegas does/thinks.

(09-25-2023 05:58 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 09:18 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

So, a 4-0 team with a three game road trip that included a win over a P5 going up against a 2-2 team at home can only muster up an opening line of -1. Even at -4.5, they aren't seeing a 4-0 team, they see a team who has some things to fix and not ready to give credentials to their record. 3 points are almost an automatic for the home team, which was saying they think S. Alabama is a 2 point better team or that now with the line at 4.5, we're a 1.5 better team over a 2-2 team. Argue all you want, they're not convinced we're as good as our record.

It is a valid point. Wins count and we're 4-0, but we have a lot of flaws. Vegas is just confirming what we're seeing on the field.

(09-25-2023 07:20 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 05:58 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 09:18 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

So, a 4-0 team with a three game road trip that included a win over a P5 going up against a 2-2 team at home can only muster up an opening line of -1. Even at -4.5, they aren't seeing a 4-0 team, they see a team who has some things to fix and not ready to give credentials to their record. 3 points are almost an automatic for the home team, which was saying they think S. Alabama is a 2 point better team or that now with the line at 4.5, we're a 1.5 better team over a 2-2 team. Argue all you want, they're not convinced we're as good as our record.

It is a valid point. Wins count and we're 4-0, but we have a lot of flaws. Vegas is just confirming what we're seeing on the field.

Honest question to everyone, would you expect anything different in our 2nd year of FBS? Georgia, Texas, Michigan all seem to have flaws too. Just trying to understand the expectations of the Dukes. I was just reading an article about CCs Phonegate on an SEC website where they referred to us as "possibly the best G5 program in the country".

If the -1 was good, the Vegas wouldn't budge from it, even if people were hammering JMU. The first bet on the -1 line was taken last Wednesday before USA lost to CMU.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

(09-25-2023 07:31 AM)CarRamrod Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 07:20 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 05:58 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 09:18 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

So, a 4-0 team with a three game road trip that included a win over a P5 going up against a 2-2 team at home can only muster up an opening line of -1. Even at -4.5, they aren't seeing a 4-0 team, they see a team who has some things to fix and not ready to give credentials to their record. 3 points are almost an automatic for the home team, which was saying they think S. Alabama is a 2 point better team or that now with the line at 4.5, we're a 1.5 better team over a 2-2 team. Argue all you want, they're not convinced we're as good as our record.

It is a valid point. Wins count and we're 4-0, but we have a lot of flaws. Vegas is just confirming what we're seeing on the field.

Honest question to everyone, would you expect anything different in our 2nd year of FBS? Georgia, Texas, Michigan all seem to have flaws too. Just trying to understand the expectations of the Dukes. I was just reading an article about CCs Phonegate on an SEC website where they referred to us as "possibly the best G5 program in the country".

We're way ahead of where I thought we would be back in 2021. This program/staff have done an amazing job.

Not sure what that has to do with what I stated above. I'm not knocking the team by saying that we have some issues.

I don't want to sound like one of those fans that is always blaming the refs, but we have had three to four egregious calls not go our way. Some in the UVA game (like the clear fumble near the goal line) and two versus Utah State on Saturday. Despite that, and despite how terrible our pass defense is, the team has found a way to win every week. Eventually the pass defense and conservative second half offensive play calling will catch up to them, but they're certainly exceeding where I thought they would be prior to moving up.

There were a few times I thought we had blown coverage, just missed assignments. Then several times we had decent coverage but the qb put the ball in the only spot for his player to catch it. I actually thought our d backs played better this week (400 yards given up notwithstanding). There were also times the coverage was good but the ball was under thrown and their player adjusted more quickly, not intentional back shoulder or under throws but a bit of luck as he released in under duress. My point: I think our db’s are actually playing better overall. But then, I may be

(09-25-2023 07:40 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 07:31 AM)CarRamrod Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 07:20 AM)JMU2004 Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 05:58 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 09:18 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

So, a 4-0 team with a three game road trip that included a win over a P5 going up against a 2-2 team at home can only muster up an opening line of -1. Even at -4.5, they aren't seeing a 4-0 team, they see a team who has some things to fix and not ready to give credentials to their record. 3 points are almost an automatic for the home team, which was saying they think S. Alabama is a 2 point better team or that now with the line at 4.5, we're a 1.5 better team over a 2-2 team. Argue all you want, they're not convinced we're as good as our record.

It is a valid point. Wins count and we're 4-0, but we have a lot of flaws. Vegas is just confirming what we're seeing on the field.

Honest question to everyone, would you expect anything different in our 2nd year of FBS? Georgia, Texas, Michigan all seem to have flaws too. Just trying to understand the expectations of the Dukes. I was just reading an article about CCs Phonegate on an SEC website where they referred to us as "possibly the best G5 program in the country".

We're way ahead of where I thought we would be back in 2021. This program/staff have done an amazing job.

Not sure what that has to do with what I stated above. I'm not knocking the team by saying that we have some issues.

My bad, sounds like we are on the same page. I've never cheered for a team that didn't have issues. Great coaching find ways to mask those issues (injuries, depth, youth at a few positions) and this year's staff has provided a masterclass in that.

Dukes will be kings of Alabama

(09-25-2023 05:58 AM)BleedingPurple Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 09:18 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  I guess you can argue that we’ve played a tough schedule due to the travel, changed our starting QB, and have yet to play four quarters, but we’re still 4-0. I don’t think we’re any worse than a 3-1 team, if one of our last three opponents managed to nip us.

Getting past USA should give us a chance to catch our breath. BFS should be insane.

So, a 4-0 team with a three game road trip that included a win over a P5 going up against a 2-2 team at home can only muster up an opening line of -1. Even at -4.5, they aren't seeing a 4-0 team, they see a team who has some things to fix and not ready to give credentials to their record. 3 points are almost an automatic for the home team, which was saying they think S. Alabama is a 2 point better team or that now with the line at 4.5, we're a 1.5 better team over a 2-2 team. Argue all you want, they're not convinced we're as good as our record.

Let's keep in mind -- betting lines are essentially the middle-point of all of betting-land's opinions. Sure, "wisdom of the crowd" and all that, but these are just dudes with opinions and money. So the average opinion of a million dudes dropping $100 on an outcome is JMU by one point.

If you think that's dumb, you might very well be right. I just don't understand how "the line" suddenly became such a big indicator of, well, anything. "oh, the line is up to 8.5!" What's that really signify? Probably that a new podcast dropped where one dude with a big microphone told a couple thousand dudes with available cash and not many facts to go on that there was an opportunity.

(09-25-2023 08:12 AM)bridgeforthduke Wrote:  I don't want to sound like one of those fans that is always blaming the refs, but we have had three to four egregious calls not go our way. Some in the UVA game (like the clear fumble near the goal line) and two versus Utah State on Saturday. Despite that, and despite how terrible our pass defense is, the team has found a way to win every week. Eventually the pass defense and conservative second half offensive play calling will catch up to them, but they're certainly exceeding where I thought they would be prior to moving up.

Definitely. I know that blaming the refs is a bad idea in general, but if we're going to sit around and complain about why we didn't win by as much as we should have, well, that matters. Especially in-game. When they blew the out-of-bounds in Utah, "well, whatever, it's 38-7 now. Let 'em have a few points, I don't care." Then it turns into just a disaster.

By comparison, we didn't really get jobbed at Troy. Our pass defense really wasn't at its worst. Sure, there were a couple blown plays, but those were kind of natural byproducts of a stifling run defense.

I am concerned about how the offense will just become so inept in stretches. It's as if you need to master about 10 plays from which you can expect to get 5 yards about 3/4 of the time you run them. And we only have about 5 of those, so there exist defensive schemes that can stop most of those. Add in a one-hour case of the yips where your pass plays stop working, and that's how you get a bunch of 3-and-outs in a row.

(09-25-2023 06:29 AM)CarRamrod Wrote:  Hey, if you want to be favored by double digits every game, go join the CAA or something.

Exactly, count that guy in the spoiled JMU fanbase.

Don't get too many double digit spreads in FBS, let alone the G5s.

It is a shame when folks cannot even take a breath to appreciate what we have and how we have gotten here so quickly. I think anyone on this board would have taken in July a 3-1 start.....and boom JMU sits at 4-0.

(09-25-2023 09:13 AM)ShadyP Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 06:29 AM)CarRamrod Wrote:  Hey, if you want to be favored by double digits every game, go join the CAA or something.

Exactly, count that guy in the spoiled JMU fanbase.

Don't get too many double digit spreads in FBS, let alone the G5s.

It is a shame when folks cannot even take a breath to appreciate what we have and how we have gotten here so quickly. I think anyone on this board would have taken in July a 3-1 start.....and boom JMU sits at 4-0.

Some people will never be happy. Just have to accept that.
We could be 12-0 and people will find a reason to be unhappy about the team.
The important part is to not let the negativity get into your skin.
I am very grateful for the program and what they've done so far. There are 2 P5 schools in Virginia that I would not want to swap places with even if it was an option.
Personally, I thought we would be 3-1 at this point at best. 2-2 wouldn't have surprised me. The fact that we are 4-0 is incredible. We are 2 wins away from a potential bowl invite if there aren't enough .500 schools.

I wished we had more media access to practice and/or the DNR could afford a full-time beat writer that was always hanging around getting intel. I'd feel a lot better about this game if I knew Lawton was back and our either Taurus or JWalk were playing. While Hendrick and Fisher have filled in admirably, I have to assume they are gassed and I am worried about them finally running out of steam in this game. But without any real media access, I guess this will be another "wait until warm-ups to see who is available" situation.

(09-25-2023 06:29 AM)CarRamrod Wrote:  Hey, if you want to be favored by double digits every game, go join the CAA or something.

We're still in the "they're still transitioning up from FCS so they can't be THAT good, right?" phase for those in the media and bettors so far. Most hadn't even been paying attention to us at all until 15 games ago (or less). They're still learning. Just keep winning and they eventually will learn.