(10-16-2023 09:05 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(10-10-2023 11:09 AM)Zorch Wrote:  Other non-CAA games of interest that will affect the Top 25 polls:

1. #1 South Dakota State plays Northern Iowa (receiving votes (rv)). We want SDSU to win and keep N. Iowa down (and eventually out of the playoffs).

2. #3 Idaho hosts #16 Montana. We probably want to knock Montana further down the polls. However, wouldn't lose too much sleep over an Idaho loss either, as a way of moving them further down the polls.

3. #5 Furman at Samford (rv). If W&M wins out then a Samford win would be better. If W&M stumbles again then a Furman win would help keep Samford below us. Of course, since the game is this week, we have no way of knowing if W&M will stumble again. I'll go with favoring Samford.

4. #6 North Dakota State at #15 North Dakota. Probably want North Dakota to fall further behind us....but definitely wouldn't mind if NDSU took another hit.

5. #10 South Dakota hosts #23 Youngstown St. South Dakota went from #15 to #10 based on last weeks 38-7 win over mighty Murray State (leapfrogging W&M in the process). Personally, I think that's way too high of a jump and not worthy of passing us when we lost to a P4 team. It just shows the biases of the voters....favoring MVFC and Big Sky teams. So, I hope Youngstown beats them and knocks them below us again (of course, based on the aforementioned biases, the voters would probably shoot YSU ahead of us).

Well, most of those results did not go our way....so this week W&M has dropped from #11 to #13....in a week where we didn't play.

In fact, most of the teams that didn't play dropped in the poll (talk about a recency bias!!) except for Western Carolina who moved up from #9 to #8. Holy Cross fell from #12 to #15, North Carolina Central fell from #14 to #16, and Florida A&M fell from #18 to #19. UT Martin and Central Arkansas stayed the same.

Meanwhile, the Big Sky and Missouri Valley gained inordinate credit for playing each other within conference. Montana jumped from #16 to #9 for beating #3 Idaho (but they apparently have lost no credit for barely beating Div-II Ferris State and Idaho State; also beating mighties Butler and Utah Tech; and losing to N. Arizona). South Dakota jumped from #10 to #6 (!!) for squeaking by #23 Youngstown State 34-31 on a last second FG. Southern Illinois went from #13 to #12 for beating mighty Murray State (which shouldn't have been enough to leapfrog both W&M and Holy Cross). North Dakota beat NDSU and jumped from #15 to #11 (which makes more sense than South Dakota's jump). In other words, no matter which ranked team wins in the MVFC or Big Sky they move up but the losing team doesn't move down much (whereas W&M goes down for losing to FBS Virginia and in a bye week and Holy Cross goes down for a bye week). Well, both Montana and Idaho are off this week...let's see if they drop down....

Here are the games of interest this week:

#1 SDSU visits #12 S. ILL. W&M wants SDSU to win.

#2 Montana St. visits #3 Sac. St. I want Sac. St. to win because I would rather W&M go out there than back out to Montana.

#4 Furman visits #8 W. Carolina. I guess we want Furman because W&M has less ground to cover to pass WCU in the polls. Could mean a future trip to Greenville in the playoffs.

#11 North Dakota at N. Iowa. Need the unranked Panthers to win to drop UND below us. We should stay above UNI as long as we keep winning. ;o)

Another is Lafayette (5-1) @ Holy Cross (4-2). This will likely decide the Patriot autobid and with a game still ahead @Army, Holy Cross could be in real danger of finishing 7-4 and out of the playoffs.

Lafayette’s strength is their defense. They do have a win over Monmouth (28-20) among their record so far.

We should have a much better understanding of where we may end up after the next two home games. Let's get a couple of wins and see where we stand.

(10-17-2023 08:41 AM)Sitting bull Wrote:  Another is Lafayette (5-1) @ Holy Cross (4-2). This will likely decide the Patriot autobid and with a game still ahead @Army, Holy Cross could be in real danger of finishing 7-4 and out of the playoffs.

Lafayette’s strength is their defense. They do have a win over Monmouth (28-20) among their record so far.

Good call, SB! I didn't include that game because I thought Holy Cross would roll. It looks like the Crusader's season is heading for the same dumpster that the Tribe is heading for.

(10-21-2023 08:12 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(10-17-2023 08:41 AM)Sitting bull Wrote:  Another is Lafayette (5-1) @ Holy Cross (4-2). This will likely decide the Patriot autobid and with a game still ahead @Army, Holy Cross could be in real danger of finishing 7-4 and out of the playoffs.

Lafayette’s strength is their defense. They do have a win over Monmouth (28-20) among their record so far.

Good call, SB! I didn't include that game because I thought Holy Cross would roll. It looks like the Crusader's season is heading for the same dumpster that the Tribe is heading for.

They were also highly ranked in the early season. Good for Lafayette.

Tribe (#22) still ranked in top 25.

STATS Poll: Oct. 23, 2023
https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/10/af...s-top-25-poll/


1. South Dakota State (7-0, 4-0 MVFC), 1,400 points (56 of 56 first-place votes)
2. Montana State (6-1, 4-0 Big Sky), 1,342
3. Furman (6-1, 4-0 SoCon), 1,266
4. South Dakota (6-1, 4-0 MVFC), 1,133
5. Delaware (6-1, 4-0 CAA), 1,079
6. Sacramento State (5-2, 2-2 Big Sky), 1,074
7. Montana (6-1, 3-1 Big Sky), 1,056
8. UIW (6-1, 3-0 Southland), 1,038
9. Idaho (5-2, 3-1 Big Sky), 1,005
10. Western Carolina (5-2, 3-1 SoCon), 829
11. Southern Illinois (5-2, 2-2 MVFC), 768
12. North Dakota State (5-2, 2-2 MVFC), 750
13. North Carolina Central (6-1, 1-0 MEAC), 703
14. UT Martin (6-1, 3-0 Big South-OVC), 677
15. North Dakota (4-3, 2-2 MVFC), 596
16. Florida A&M (6-1, 5-0 SWAC), 497
17. Chattanooga (6-2, 5-1 Southern), 462
18. Central Arkansas (5-2, 2-0 UAC), 461
19. Villanova (5-2, 3-1 CAA), 319
20. Austin Peay (5-2, 2-0 UAC), 227
21. Lafayette (6-1, 2-0 Patriot), 218
22. William & Mary (4-3, 2-2 CAA), 213
23. Northern Iowa (4-3, 3-1 MVFC), 196
24. Youngstown State (4-3, 2-2 MVFC), 181
25. UC Davis (4-3, 2-2 Big Sky), 164

Dropped Out: Holy Cross (15), Harvard (18)

Others Receiving Votes (schools listed on two or more ballots): Holy Cross (4-3, 2-1 Patriot) 146; Harvard (5-1, 2-1 Ivy) 113; UAlbany (5-3, 3-1 CAA) 112; New Hampshire (4-3, 2-2 CAA) 74; Fordham (5-2, 1-1 Patriot) 51; Tennessee State (5-2, 1-1 Big South-OVC) 18; Eastern Washington (3-4, 2-2 Big Sky) 7; Penn (5-1, 2-1 Ivy) 7; Weber State (3-5, 1-4 Big Sky) 6; Lamar (4-3, 3-0 Southland) 4
1

Not even considered a bubble team in the latest bracketology.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-2023...ns-2-bzbz/

Okay, this week's FCS Stats Perform poll really highlights how Missouri Valley and Big Sky centric it has become....with the CAA being the big loser. Note these trends:

Idaho beat Montana State and moved from #9 to #3. Okay, although that seems like a big jump, I can live with that.

Montana trounced mighty N. Colorado and went from #7 to #4....leapfrogging Delaware (who also won) who stayed at #5. Montana jumping Delaware is not justified. At least Idaho beat #2 Mont. St. in order to pass Delaware.

The only example of something strange happening to MVFC/Big Sky is Sacramento State winning but still falling from #6 to #7.

South Dakota was absolutely crushed (37-3) by SDSU but only fell from #4 to #9.

North Dakota took overtime to beat lowly Indiana St. (36-33) but still jumped 2 (!) spots in the poll, from #15 to #13.

Chattanooga (SoCon) barely squeaked by VMI 17-14 but still rose 3 spots from #17 to #14.

N. Iowa (who I have been warning about all year, because these things HAPPEN EVERY YEAR) barely beat Illinois St. 24-21 but vaulted in the polls from #23 to #18 (leaping over W&M (who also won by 3 points)).

Youngstown St. beat Missouri St. 24-22 but still leapfrogged W&M, going from #24 to #22.

Even Albany went from NR (not ranked) to #23....ahead of W&M.

Meanwhile, the Tribe won their game 31-28 but somehow managed to fall from #22 to #24.

I want to know what the CAA office is doing about this. Is there any lobbying? Do they even care? (I think not, since they keep assigning such bad officiating crews to Tribe games. You'd think that they would want their ranked teams to at least have the advantage of well-officiated games).

Not surprised that we dropped. My guess is that nobody paid attention and then realized the both Elon and Towson are lousy. Those two losses should keep us out of the playoffs even if we run the table.

We’re lucky to be in the top 25.


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(10-30-2023 03:40 PM)Tribal Wrote:  We’re lucky to be in the top 25.


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Agreed with this. If we win out then we should comfortably be in the top 25 without anyone putting up a major argument. But I think there's an easy argument right now that we shouldn't be in the top 25 at all.

I don't think the Tribe has played like a Top 25 team all year. Despite that, all they can do is win the last 3 games and see where they end up. Honestly, I think they could have survived the road Elon loss. But, losing at home to Towson in the way they did is the definition of a crushing bad loss.

W&M 6-2 in the CAA, 8-3 overall might have a chance to get in but it will depend on where they finish in the CAA and what else happens. Still a lofty goal since there has not had back to back playoff seasons since 2009 and 2010.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology

This projection still has us making the field. But, it is suspect as it has 7 teams from the MVC. Presumably that would require the Tribe to win out.

(10-30-2023 04:19 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs...acketology

This projection still has us making the field. But, it is suspect as it has 7 teams from the MVC. Presumably that would require the Tribe to win out.

That poll is suspect not because it has 7 MVFC teams but because it features at least 3 repeat games in the second round (UD-Villanova, Furman-Chattanoga, and the South Dakota-N. iowa winner against SDSU. There is no reason for that even if you do talk about the mileage. For example, it would be just as easy for W&M to play Delaware since we didn’t face the Hens this year.

7 MVFC teams is not a surprise. It has been trending that way for years and poll movements like the ones outlined above simply confirm it.

(10-30-2023 04:16 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  W&M 6-2 in the CAA, 8-3 overall might have a chance to get in but it will depend on where they finish in the CAA and what else happens. Still a lofty goal since there has not had back to back playoff seasons since 2009 and 2010.

If we win out, that would automatically mean we finish ahead ( win any tiebreakers) of Richmond and UAlbany - so I think we’re in without question in that scenario. We would also be minimal 3rd as Delaware (no losses) and Villanova (one loss) has to lose.

Delaware could possibly lose their last 3 (Elon, @Campbell, Villanova) - though doubtful. I think they lose maybe one and win outright. Villanova has games @UNH and @Delaware - they could conceivably end with 3 losses.

Elon is still in it (one loss) but with games at Delaware and Richmond, I think they will close with 3 losses in the league. Even if we tie them at 6-2, I think we would be picked ahead of them as they lost all OOC games. They will have 5 total losses.

I haven’t seen us play in person but agree we just haven’t shown that spark from last year - not a top 20 team. Every win has been a struggle, every loss disappointing.

(10-30-2023 07:36 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  

(10-30-2023 04:16 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  W&M 6-2 in the CAA, 8-3 overall might have a chance to get in but it will depend on where they finish in the CAA and what else happens. Still a lofty goal since there has not had back to back playoff seasons since 2009 and 2010.

If we win out, that would automatically mean we finish ahead ( win any tiebreakers) of Richmond and UAlbany - so I think we’re in without question in that scenario. We would also be minimal 3rd as Delaware (no losses) and Villanova (one loss) has to lose.

Delaware could possibly lose their last 3 (Elon, @Campbell, Villanova) - though doubtful. I think they lose maybe one and win outright. Villanova has games @UNH and @Delaware - they could conceivably end with 3 losses.

Elon is still in it (one loss) but with games at Delaware and Richmond, I think they will close with 3 losses in the league. Even if we tie them at 6-2, I think we would be picked ahead of them as they lost all OOC games. They will have 5 total losses.

I haven’t seen us play in person but agree we just haven’t shown that spark from last year - not a top 20 team. Every win has been a struggle, every loss disappointing.

Agree we have not been been a Top 20 team since Yoder went down. If we win out, then we should be in the playoffs based on reputation from last year and finishing 8-3 even against our weak schedule.

The game last Saturday provided a great mental reset for Wilson and if he can carry that momentum then he will make great strides to help us win out. Our team needs better mental toughness in avoiding some of our penalties especially on the D. Players need to leave some of the antics off the field and stay focused without the attitude.