I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

B12 adds Louisville, Pitt, VT, Duke
ACC adds Tulane, Memphis, Temple, UAB, UTSA, Rice, USF, FAU, UConn

The PAC12 had a narrow path to survival because it never had the viewership of the SEC and B1G. Going solo with the P12N was a high risk/reward proposition.

If the independent P12N had gained wide distribution, the PAC would have realized disproportionately higher revenue than the other conference networks keeping the PAC financially close enough to the B1G and SEC to keep the conference intact.

The entire proposition was based on if PAC fans would be willing to switch providers in order to provide leverage for the P12N in negotiation with carriers. This was never sufficiently communicated to PAC fans who thought that waiting out their carrier and bitching was going to work. Changing carriers had to happen by week 4 of the first season, and this urgency was never appropriately conveyed.

It all comes down to .... can the Big 12 poach from ACC?

If yes....

Big 12: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Georgia Tech.
ACC now at 7 adds: UConn, USF, Tulane, Memphis, CSU, SDSU, Oregon State, Wash. State, ECU, Best of Rest, etc.

If no....

Big 12: Oregon State, Wash. State, SDSU, Memphis
ACC now at 11 adds: Tulane, UConn, USF, Rice, CSU, etc.

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

I think NC goes to the SEC and VA to the Big10, but that's probably not material to your question.

So to answer though, I have 2 different responses:

What I think should happen.

What I think is likely to happen.

Should: The Big12 and ACC do a selective merge, before the P2 continues to poach them.

This'll help maximize the media deal for the haves. And to wave goodbye to the havenots.

Needless to say, the ones getting left behind are likely not going to be in favor of this...

Likely: A mess.

And add in whatever is going to happen with the PAC/MWC (and some ACC), this could turn really messy.

And honestly, the P2 will then likely take advantage of the disruption to go to 24 or more, each.

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

If/when we get to the point where ESPN is wiling to shift select ACC brands into the SEC I suspect they would work with/use the B12 on a semi-merger with the leftover ACC schools.

Bring in: Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse & Virginia Tech. Offer Cal & Stanford if they say no they you stick at 22

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Any “what if” thread that’s starts with “the SEC adds NC State” is in trouble from the get go. WE. DONT. WANT. NC STATE.

(09-12-2023 03:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Any “what if” thread that’s starts with “the SEC adds NC State” is in trouble from the get go. WE. DONT. WANT. NC STATE.

Start saving up to throw money at UNC, then. B1G already has.

(09-12-2023 03:22 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Any “what if” thread that’s starts with “the SEC adds NC State” is in trouble from the get go. WE. DONT. WANT. NC STATE.

Everyone who assumes there will be big conferences for the sake of big conferences forgets that each school will work to maximize their profits. That said, the name of the game is brands moving forward:

B1G:
- Virginia, UNC, Maryland, Rutgers
- Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
- Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern
- Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
- USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington

SEC:
- Clemson, USC, Virginia Tech, Duke
- Georgia, Florida, FSU, Miami
- Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
- Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
- Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

XII:
- Utah, BYU, Arizona, Arizona State
- Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State
- Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor
- Houston, UCF, WVU, Cincinnati

ACC:
- NC State, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, USF
- Louisville, Memphis, Tulane, SMU
- Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, Navy

REST:

Outside of Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, and Miami, I'm not sure anybody else is compelling to the SEC or B1G. If those six leave, I expect Stanford, Duke, and the other academically minded schools will take over the ACC and block certain expansion targets, Memphis for example, based on academics. I think that pushes Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and NC State to the Big 12. The remaining eight schools would look to add Tulane, Rice, and South Florida with UConn as #12 if they are interested, Temple if they aren't.

If the either conference adds, their first look would be from the other conference. If the window is ever shut on schools from the other conference and if that conference feels obligated to grow, my list for schools that might get a look would be (in alphabetical order): Connecticut, Memphis, Oregon St, San Diego St, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, Washington St.

For fun, let's say each conference keeps all current members and 20 is the goal for each. Let's assume Connecticut remains in the Big East.
ACC (17/18) + San Diego St, South Florida, Tulane
XII (16) + Memphis, Oregon St, Temple, Washington St

Football Divisions/Pods
(Yes, I know. They will be divisionless.)

ACC
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, South Florida, Virginia
Eastern: Boston College, Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Metro: California, San Diego St, SMU, Stanford, Tulane

XII
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, West Virginia
North: BYU, Colorado, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St
South: Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
West: Arizona, Arizona St, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St

This is a good question because both conferences are coast to coast.

There are still schools with some value for these two conferences (although maybe not until they lose schools to the P2)

UConn (ACC or Big 12)
USF (ACC if FSU and Miami both leave)
Memphis (Big 12)
Tulane (ACC or Big 12)
San Diego State (Big 12)
UNLV (Big 12)

That being said, I have no idea of what the ACC plan's are. They made such a leap in geography that seems to have no long range plan. Do they want to keep growing with schools like Rice? I dont think they know what they want at this point.

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

I expect if more than 4 go to BIG/SEC FSU and UM would be in the bunch gone.
USF/Tulane more likely than Memphis Tulane. No way the ACC doesn't want a footprint in FL. USF fills all the boxes other than wins.

(09-12-2023 04:05 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

I expect if more than 4 go to BIG/SEC FSU and UM would be in the bunch gone.
USF/Tulane more likely than Memphis Tulane. No way the ACC doesn't want a footprint in FL. USF fills all the boxes other than wins.

With SMU in the fold, Tulane and Memphis work better. But I agree that USF could get priority due to FL needs for the ACC network.

I'm curious if they don't take a run at some of the 4C schools. They have Cal/Stanford. If those teams DON'T go to the B1G. Would the 4C Big 12 schools consider moving?

(09-12-2023 04:05 PM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

I expect if more than 4 go to BIG/SEC FSU and UM would be in the bunch gone.
USF/Tulane more likely than Memphis Tulane. No way the ACC doesn't want a footprint in FL. USF fills all the boxes other than wins.

We won last week….

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

As a VT fan, I have zero interest at the B12. Even if the ACC loses five schools or so, the ACC would be a better conference for VT.

But think about the following:

1. The ACC will make more money than the B12, about $5 - $10 million per school per year, for 2025-2030.
2. I am not very bullish about the B12’s next media deal. Given the current media environment, the future of a M tier conference is not very bright.
3. The ACC may lose a school or two within the next six years. It’s extremely unlikely that more than two schools would challenge the GoR in my opinion. Too much risk for a not very winnable case.
4. Even if one or two schools leave the ACC, ESPN is contractually obligated to pay the ACC through 2036. In other words, the ACC will continue to make more money than the B12 through 2036 unless the B12 hits a home run with the next media deal.
5. If the ACC loses a school or two around 2038, the ACC will target the B12 schools to backfill and expand. Mostly like 4C schools. But WVU is also a possibility.

The bottom line: unless the B12’s next media deal is better than the ACC’s current deal, I don’t think the B12 will be able to raid the ACC. If their next media deal is ordinary (and I predict that’s that case), expect the ACC
will go after the B12 schools around 2028-2030.

(09-12-2023 07:49 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

As a VT fan, I have zero interest at the B12. Even if the ACC loses five schools or so, the ACC would be a better conference for VT.

But think about the following:

1. The ACC will make more money than the B12, about $5 - $10 million per school per year, for 2025-2030.
2. I am not very bullish about the B12’s next media deal. Given the current media environment, the future of a M tier conference is not very bright.
3. The ACC may lose a school or two within the next six years. It’s extremely unlikely that more than two schools would challenge the GoR in my opinion. Too much risk for a not very winnable case.
4. Even if one or two schools leave the ACC, ESPN is contractually obligated to pay the ACC through 2036. In other words, the ACC will continue to make more money than the B12 through 2036 unless the B12 hits a home run with the next media deal.
5. If the ACC loses a school or two around 2038, the ACC will target the B12 schools to backfill and expand. Mostly like 4C schools. But WVU is also a possibility.

The bottom line: unless the B12’s next media deal is better than the ACC’s current deal, I don’t think the B12 will be able to raid the ACC. If their next media deal is ordinary (and I predict that’s that case), expect the ACC
will go after the B12 schools around 2028-2030.

This is a lot of words to just say you want VT to milk UNC, Duke, Clemson, and FSU as long as possible.

The Big 12 deal likely won't be much less than the ACC deal.

(09-12-2023 07:49 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

As a VT fan, I have zero interest at the B12. Even if the ACC loses five schools or so, the ACC would be a better conference for VT.

But think about the following:

1. The ACC will make more money than the B12, about $5 - $10 million per school per year, for 2025-2030.
2. I am not very bullish about the B12’s next media deal. Given the current media environment, the future of a M tier conference is not very bright.
3. The ACC may lose a school or two within the next six years. It’s extremely unlikely that more than two schools would challenge the GoR in my opinion. Too much risk for a not very winnable case.
4. Even if one or two schools leave the ACC, ESPN is contractually obligated to pay the ACC through 2036. In other words, the ACC will continue to make more money than the B12 through 2036 unless the B12 hits a home run with the next media deal.
5. If the ACC loses a school or two around 2038, the ACC will target the B12 schools to backfill and expand. Mostly like 4C schools. But WVU is also a possibility.

The bottom line: unless the B12’s next media deal is better than the ACC’s current deal, I don’t think the B12 will be able to raid the ACC. If their next media deal is ordinary (and I predict that’s that case), expect the ACC
will go after the B12 schools around 2028-2030.

If it's "ordinary" so to speak, I don't think the distance between ACC and Big 12 is great enough to warrant paying the Big 12 exit fees. However, with inflation etc going the way it is, in 2030, "ordinary" may still be higher than the ACC.

(09-12-2023 08:11 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 07:49 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 02:14 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(09-12-2023 01:05 PM)Boots Wrote:  I think this is an interesting forecast and discussion.

Most expect the next domino to be the ACC losing 4-6 teams. I was told recently by a college administrator we are headed to a P4 of 20 teams each.

So let's assume the SEC adds 4 (say for example FSU, Clemson, North Carolina State, Virginia) and the Big 10 adds 2 (for example North Carolina and Miami).

The ACC is now at 11 schools left with Stanford, Cal, SMU, Pitt, Wake, GT, Duke, Louisville, Syracuse, Boston College, Virginia Tech.

Then what?

Does the Big 12 grow from 16 to 20? With who?

Does the ACC (now at 11) grow to 16, 18, or 20? With who?

Can the Big 12 poach teams from the ACC?

Could by chance the ACC poach any Big 12 teams?

Big 12: Louisville and VT
ACC: Memphis and Tulane

As a VT fan, I have zero interest at the B12. Even if the ACC loses five schools or so, the ACC would be a better conference for VT.

But think about the following:

1. The ACC will make more money than the B12, about $5 - $10 million per school per year, for 2025-2030.
2. I am not very bullish about the B12’s next media deal. Given the current media environment, the future of a M tier conference is not very bright.
3. The ACC may lose a school or two within the next six years. It’s extremely unlikely that more than two schools would challenge the GoR in my opinion. Too much risk for a not very winnable case.
4. Even if one or two schools leave the ACC, ESPN is contractually obligated to pay the ACC through 2036. In other words, the ACC will continue to make more money than the B12 through 2036 unless the B12 hits a home run with the next media deal.
5. If the ACC loses a school or two around 2038, the ACC will target the B12 schools to backfill and expand. Mostly like 4C schools. But WVU is also a possibility.

The bottom line: unless the B12’s next media deal is better than the ACC’s current deal, I don’t think the B12 will be able to raid the ACC. If their next media deal is ordinary (and I predict that’s that case), expect the ACC
will go after the B12 schools around 2028-2030.

This is a lot of words to just say you want VT to milk UNC, Duke, Clemson, and FSU as long as possible.

The Big 12 deal likely won't be much less than the ACC deal.

VT to milk Duke?

Just to be clear, VT football is down. But its attendance number is better than everyone in the ACC except for Clemson and FSU and better than every single school in the B12/16.