(09-06-2023 07:36 AM)Gitanole Wrote: (09-05-2023 05:41 PM)schmolik Wrote: Proving once again the ACC needs Florida State to win to be popular.
Last year,
Florida State vs. LSU in New Orleans: 7.55M
Florida vs. Florida State: 6.71M
The better FSU gets the better ratings FSU gets.
The better FSU gets, the more the Big Ten is going to want them.
Florida State is the Jesse Pinkman of the ACC.
The ACC needs the product, and needs to keep the cook chained to the floor as it's made.
What folks are missing, almost wholesale, about the current reality is that FOX and ESPN are assembling two super conferences which they will pay handsomely to assemble, and here is the key part, they are doing it by consolidating the top draws due to winning, brand strength, and the flagship status acquiring the most viewers in midsized to large states, and 2nd schools in large states with significant percentages of viewers. And their intent is to have a conference which is Tier 2 and Tier 3 content that the networks need and which they will use to fill out their odd day and odd time slot needs and which they intend to pay half as much or less than their premier conferences.
In other words, this consolidation is about value segregation. FOX's premier conference (Big 10) has long paid out lesser shares by calling it a buy in. So FOX can take some top state flagships without stellar numbers and justify it by paying smaller shares.
ESPN's premier conference (SEC) does not and is an equal share conference. ESPN's segregation therefore has to made by adding like value schools to the deliberately lower paid ACC so they move their higher value brands to the SEC.
California, and Stanford are two such additions. SMU is a market value stabilizer for the ACCN. The composition clause of the ACC contract permitting a regulation of value should the conference drop below 15 members (including N.D. as a partial) is in place to assure that no monetary loss is sustained by remaining members when the exercise is completed.
Medium sized state Flagships which could be involved are Virginia and North Carolina. In Virginia's case it is interesting because Virginia Tech is the better draw. Large schools with solid market share from large states would be Florida State. Brand schools which were winning would include Clemson. Duke is a major brand and top academic school and will rate.
Notre Dame likely isn't going anywhere and in the coming years will have an opportunity to build a conference (ACC) of its choosing.
Those who think they are going to hold the highest valued brands of the ACC in place don't grasp what ESPN has set up through the long term GOR, equal ownership of the SEC and ACC, and the essential guarantee that an ACC without it's highest valued members will earn what it is contracted to earn now so long as they maintain 15 members. The schools with options know that a choice to stay will mean 45% of the earnings of their peer schools in the Big 10 and SEC. They will leave when the how is set up for them.
My point: FSU only seems to be chained to the floor. If 18 is the end game UNC and FSU to the SEC end it nicely. If it is 4 add a Virginia school and Clemson, unless Duke with UNC makes it work, or Kansas for the valuation makes it work. Clemson is a strong brand, has been winning, but remains a second school from a smallish state.
Personally I see a solid path, and profitable path to end it at 18. And if the Big 10 sees it the same way that works.
The question remains what are the inventory requirements that the Big 10 and SEC will have placed upon them by the networks. At 8 or 9 games a week 18 works. If it's 9 to 10 games you are looking at 20. If it's 11 to 12 games you are looking at 24. Keeping some strength in the Big 12 and ACC and figuring in an independent Notre Dame could keep the requirments lower rather than higher. We'll see.