bryanw1995
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RE: Brett McMurphy: OSU, WSU still pursuing Pac rebuild
(09-15-2023 03:06 PM)clunk Wrote: (09-15-2023 02:58 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote: (09-15-2023 02:16 PM)johnbragg Wrote: (09-15-2023 02:12 PM)clunk Wrote: (09-15-2023 01:42 PM)johnbragg Wrote: If my account is correct, they'd be looking at $67M each over two years.
($40M a year from the Rose Bowl / CFP, $10M a year from the CFP, $17.5M a year in tournament credits)
That's a significant amount of money, but I think it's going to end up being shared with their new Mountain West friends who they invite to the new PAC-14
Even if you're right(which I very much doubt), you're still only looking at revenue. What about expenses? Their athletic budget is based on a $30M media contract, which no longer exists. Also on a conference schedule that costs $0, now they're looking at $20M+ to replace. There is no war chest. There is no money to help with exit fees.
That's true no matter what they do -- join the MWC, join the AAC, cobble together a NuPAC. There isn't a scenario (except for a miracle Big 12 invite) where WSU and OSU are collecting $30M in media money.
So, what about expenses? They're going to have to reduce them. No way around that.
It’s very hazy, but I can picture them at least getting within spittin” distance of $30m.
$10m from nuPac
$7.5m from new reduced CFO shares, but they get to keep that through the end of next CFP contract
$7.5m Units, Bowls, everything else
$25m, and it’s not even that far fetched. If they are able to pull that off, then guess who they’ll be even with for the next few years…Calford. And if they can do that, then they’ll be a big national story, build tons of goodwill, have an exciting new conference featuring excellent teams like WSU, OSU, Boise, Tulane?, Memphis?! etc etc, and excellent basketball too with SD St, Gonzaga?, Memphis?! etc etc. Overall a very strong Conference in both Football and MBB.
Everything you list is either double counted or unreasonably optimistic. They were already expecting some CFP, NCAAT, bowl, etc money, you can't apply the entire value as new revenue to replace the media deal.
$10m a year is a reasonable estimation of “best of the rest” per-team revenues
$7.5m from the CFP starting 2024 assumes that the next 2 years give WOSU a nearly p5 share, and that they continue with that starting in 2026. Not an unreasonable estimate for CFP $$, and it’s not unreasonable to think that as longtime P5 programs they could continue to be treated as such, especially if their very strong years continue.
The other $7.5m from everything else is quite conservative, I’m figuring that is funded from old PAC money and somewhat from nuPac money.
None of the above 3 things is particularly unlikely, it’s only when you put them all together that things get murky. However, even if they’re a million or 2 short in each category, that’s still $20m per year, which is a whole lot better than what many of us, myself included, pictured for them the day after Calfords move was finalized.
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