#1 PAC-4 needs to merge with someone to get grandfathered into a Linear Media deal

#2 The MWC media deal has the Boise State carve out, that’s not something you can accept as a PAC-4

#3 AAC has a higher media payout than the MWC

#4 AAC has more AAU members than the MWC

I think the pac4, especially cal & Stanford, could go pure streaming with Apple for 25 millions each might be able to add AAC or MWC teams

Everything except geography is a better fit in the AAC, honestly. We'll see if ESPN is interested enough in AAC After Dark to offset the travel costs.

(08-10-2023 10:54 AM)Huan Wrote:  I think the pac4, especially cal & Stanford, could go pure streaming with Apple for 25 millions each might be able to add AAC or MWC teams

I would love it if they just added the 8-10 biggest G5 brands and got $25m but they couldn't even get that with Oregon, Washington, and Arizona in the league. I would think $15m is a more realistic target for them whether they expand, go indy, or join another league.

(08-10-2023 10:48 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

#1 PAC-4 needs to merge with someone to get grandfathered into a Linear Media deal

#2 The MWC media deal has the Boise State carve out, that’s not something you can accept as a PAC-4

#3 AAC has a higher media payout than the MWC

#4 AAC has more AAU members than the MWC

Not going to happen. The 4 PAC schools don't have the money to go to the AAC to travel east. The only option left is the MWC.

If the ACC declines to invite Cal and Stanford, it's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out.

From the perspective of the AAC and MWC, if you can secure all of the Pac-4, or even two of the four, you put your conference in position to be the biggest kid at the kids table.

That will be important moving forward if the CFP format, as expected, is adjusted from a 6+6 to a 5+7 format.

I just don't see the PAC-4 wanting to take the whole of the AAC due to the perception that it would look like they are now G5 and have to go to the only place they can (even if it is true). I think more than likely, they invite the top AAC this year, then invite the top MW next year, and hope it is enough to get a linear deal for 15 to 20 mil

I have to think ESPN would love to have the PAC4 schools at the low, low discount price of the AAC and I think the AAC schools (well, most of them) would be happy with the contact bump.

This needs to be repeated: Cal and Stanford WILL NOT join the MW or AAC. They do not want to be considered G5. Their most likely path is independence in football and one of the WCC, Big East, or Big West for Olympic sports.

(08-10-2023 10:48 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

#1 PAC-4 needs to merge with someone to get grandfathered into a Linear Media deal

#2 The MWC media deal has the Boise State carve out, that’s not something you can accept as a PAC-4

#3 AAC has a higher media payout than the MWC

#4 AAC has more AAU members than the MWC

Presently, it is my understanding the PAC receives a P5 share of CFP money and A5 designation. If so, the PAC will be more like likely IMO to be the hunter rather than the hunted.

(08-10-2023 11:19 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  This needs to be repeated: Cal and Stanford WILL NOT join the MW or AAC. They do not want to be considered G5. Their most likely path is independence in football and one of the WCC, Big East, or Big West for Olympic sports.

And the Big East is the only option that is perceived of as being a power conference in basketball. I also think the impact on women's basketball should be considered. Adding the Pac 4 makes the Big East women's basketball conference much better.

PAC should take 4-6 ACC schools in then maybe SDSU/UNLV when the MWC contract is up.

If they get all four, they will have free reign on top MWC schools. Adela gets her wish and gets out soon after. 3 divisions with Navy rotating.

If Aresco could pull this off I’d tip my proverbial cap to him. But I don’t think the geography will work for the Pac-4. Will they incur the cost and trauma of flying their non-football sports teams across the country to be part of a power conference and earn a power conference paycheck? Sure. Will they do that to be part of a G5 conference and earn a G5 conference paycheck? Extremely doubtful IMHO.

PAC/MW, then (how much?) later ACC/AAC. And maybe a revived SWC? The G's need to stay regional.

(08-10-2023 11:19 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  This needs to be repeated: Cal and Stanford WILL NOT join the MW or AAC. They do not want to be considered G5. Their most likely path is independence in football and one of the WCC, Big East, or Big West for Olympic sports.

I love how everyone is so sure of the one scenario that means their schools get the rub of playing Stanford. You're sure they'll be independent, David is convinced they'll be MWC.

Me, I know I would rather Memphis stay in the AAC and add 2-4 PAC teams than be invited to a streaming only league (but if that happens they would beg for and accept an invite). But I have no idea how this is going to play out and I'm convinced none of those 4 schools knows yet either.

(08-10-2023 11:19 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  This needs to be repeated: Cal and Stanford WILL NOT join the MW or AAC. They do not want to be considered G5. Their most likely path is independence in football and one of the WCC, Big East, or Big West for Olympic sports.

IDK if they have a choice now. Their budgets are based on p5 money, and Independence is a hard row to hoe, especially now that you have to downgrade and reduce athletic budgets. I just don't see how they can survive as an Independent.

What’s more valuable?

The PAC brand?

AAC stability?

AAC linear programming?

Potential new PAC media deal, is Apple still there?

PAC rebuild only works if they get a media deal that’s decent (15m+) or no one is moving to that conference.

I think what a lot of people keep overlooking is that the AAC contract has always been adjustable depending on what teams are there. If the PAC snatches Memphis, SMU, USF, Tulane and Navy (then snatch the best of the MWC)ESPN could basically reduce and remake their contract withtheAAC. The pac12 should snatch the AACs top and negotiate a new linear contract for the AACs spots for even more money then go back to Apple and or develop something acceptable through espn+. Boom 25-28 million plus CFP money. Maybe I'm wrong. If anyone sees it differently,,please explain.

(08-10-2023 11:19 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  This needs to be repeated: Cal and Stanford WILL NOT join the MW or AAC. They do not want to be considered G5. Their most likely path is independence in football and one of the WCC, Big East, or Big West for Olympic sports.

Hey everyone, StanCal will not join the MWC or AAC, but they will play basketball in the MataDome and Firestone Fieldhouse instead!

The PAC deal is the least likely. Unless the MWC agrees to dissolve itself.