As we have all seen the Pac12 looks to be on its deathbed. It's early March 2023 and the Media Rights have not gone their way at all, the Big XII per a report dropped today are in discussion with the 4 Corner schools (Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado), the B1G may or may not be interested in the two best remaining football brands (Washington & Oregon) and may reach for the best remaining media market and academic heft of the league (Stanford & California).

This is a bit frustrating to me so allow me to explain my frustration. On the one hand they tell me that the Pac12 doesn't merit anything close to market value. But in reality 10 of the 12 schools (if rumors are to be believed) have a landing spot where the payouts will be bigger that that of the Pac12. WTF couldn't those schools stay together because they obviously have some value for the Big12 and at a discounted rate for the B1G.

Assuming that all of these things happen because the Pac12 is unable to secure a lucrative enough AND unable to have enough visibility from that media rights deal AND nobody is going to sign a grant of rights that doesn't include an out for the B1G or Big 12 AND what TV network would want to shell out for a non-stable league...let's set out to postulate a solid new "Western Conference".

In my opinion it might look an awful lot like a Mountain West with the headquarters in Las Vegas. Here's what I'm thinking it might look like with a deliberate push to bring in some Texas schools for recruitng and potential market purposes.

***West (California-Centered Division)
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Nevada
UNLV
San Jose State
Fresno State
San Diego State
***East (Texas-Centered Division)
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
UTEP
UTSA
SMU or Texas State
North Texas

A league like this would fill the void left by the Pac12 after its apparent dissolution. It would start with 3 Texas schools on the I-35 corridor have 5 schools on the I-25 corridor from Wyoming to UTEP. Jump out to the West Coast from San Diego up to Washington then come back down thru Idaho and the headquarters in Nevada. It would have 4 State flagship Universities (Nevada, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Boise State [I know it's technically Idaho but de facto it's BSU]). There would be plenty of visits to California and Texas to aid with recruiting. And ESPN or FOX may say a league like this that stretches from Texas through the Rockies over to the Left Coast might be a nice investment for some inexpensive content.

This new "Western Conference" could snag that "Pac12 after dark" window on ESPN and ESPN 2 and try to sell two more late night Saturday slots to FS1 & FS2. They could try out some streaming on the side. They could do weeknight games especially Thursdays and Fridays every week. Basically, a league like this could do all of the dirty work noone else wants to do and maybe get for its members 15-20 million per year. And since the American Athletic Conference is losing its strongest members to the Big12 there would be no reason that this league couldn't rise to one of the best G5 leagues annually with an occasional playoff berth. What do you all think?

“After the Pac12 perishes” is a false premise. It will exist in some form.

(03-04-2023 12:58 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  “After the Pac12 perishes” is a false premise. It will exist in some form.

Yeah. I'm assuming OSU and WSU can and will absorb the MWC under the PAC brand. And while they're at it they should make Gloria Nevarez the new PAC commissioner in this scenario.

IMO a better 16 PAC

Western:
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
UNLV
Hawaii FB only (try to get Gonzaga)
Nevada

Eastern:
SMU
UTSA
Rice
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming (IMO New Mexico should be in over them but the Colorado schools will probably want Wyoming)



That would leave the MWC with 3 left:

Utah State
SJSU
New Mexico

And AAC at
Temple
USF
East Carolina
Tulsa
UAB
FAU
UNT
Charlotte


They could merge but I don't think they will which means the MWC would need NMSU, UTEP and a 5 or so FCS schools to make the jump. AAC has a lot of options.

The key to Texas is getting a member who isn’t a total dog. And most of them who’ve been listed are total dogs. A member or two for recruiting makes sense and might be necessary, but a bunch of Texas schools that are that many rungs down isn’t going to help the conference recruit there much. No recruit who’s any good is going to go to a school in a conference with the 15th best program in Texas.

(03-04-2023 02:28 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  IMO a better 16 PAC

Western:
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
UNLV
Hawaii FB only (try to get Gonzaga)
Nevada

Eastern:
SMU
UTSA
Rice
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming (IMO New Mexico should be in over them but the Colorado schools will probably want Wyoming)

That would leave the MWC with 3 left:

Utah State
SJSU
New Mexico

And AAC at
Temple
USF
East Carolina
Tulsa
UAB
FAU
UNT
Charlotte

They could merge but I don't think they will which means the MWC would need NMSU, UTEP and a 5 or so FCS schools to make the jump. AAC has a lot of options.

Or just finish the MWC merge:

Western:
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
UNLV
Nevada
Utah State
SJSU

Eastern:
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
New Mexico
UNT
UTSA
SMU
Rice

This makes 18.

I removed Tulane and Memphis for distance reasons. Possibly could remove Rice and maybe even SMU, for the same reasons.

And you could potentially add Hawaii football-only as well, if wanted.

'When the PAC-12 is... ashes... what would a G5 Western conference look like?'

(03-04-2023 01:37 AM)Alanda Wrote:  

(03-04-2023 12:58 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  “After the Pac12 perishes” is a false premise. It will exist in some form.

Yeah. I'm assuming OSU and WSU can and will absorb the MWC under the PAC brand. And while they're at it they should make Gloria Nevarez the new PAC commissioner in this scenario.

The Pac 8ish will become the next G6 conference.
I'm thinking: WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, SDSU, SMU, Rice, CSU, Air Force (if they'll accept)

PAC 12 is not going lose anymore schools. Get that in your thick heads. You already had officials and leaders from schools in the SEC and Big 10 said they will not expand anymore for awhile. They could be waiting out until 2036 for the ACC to fall apart.

(03-04-2023 04:37 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  PAC 12 is not going lose anymore schools. Get that in your thick heads. You already had officials and leaders from schools in the SEC and Big 10 said they will not expand anymore for awhile. They could be waiting out until 2036 for the ACC to fall apart.

What about the Big 12?

Here's my thought process. If the PAC wants to remain a power conference or become the best G5/6 conference, they need to get the best basketball and football schools from the AAC and MWC. If they call a MWC school, they're coming. If they call an AAC school knowing the only 2 schools remaining could be OSU & WSU, it may be harder to do, in my opinion. So I decided to look up the schools with the most conference championships in basketball (men's and women's) and football in the MWC and AAC (C-USA history was used for the AAC schools) to create this reimagined PAC conference and this is what I came up with.

West:
Boise St.
Fresno St.
Nevada
Oregon St.
San Diego St.
UNLV
Utah St.
Washington St.

East:
Air Force (football)/Wichita St.
Colorado St.
Memphis
New Mexico
SMU
Tulsa
UAB
UTSA

Now full disclaimer, Wyoming should've made the cut based on basketball championships (tied with Boise and Utah St.), but Wyoming has been in the MWC much longer and their university is by far the smallest public university in a very small state and opted to remove them to allow room for more AAC schools because I don't know if you can be able to pluck a few and need a decent group of schools to get the move to happen.

Air Force was added as football only to counter Wichita St. despite no football championships, but figured their brand would be sufficient to add them as a football only member.

UAB may seem like a shock, but the distance from Colorado St. to UAB is the same as to Tulane, and UAB has multiple football and basketball conference championships in C-USA in the last decade. I figured they'd be a better travel partner with Memphis than Tulane, but if UAB preferred to stay east, I would have Tulane as the 1st alternate.

Tulsa may be another surprise, but I chose them as a travel partner with Wichita St. and they have history of good football back in C-USA. They also have a large amount of conference championships in their olympic sports as well as a recent football CCG appearance.

I picked UTSA over North Texas because UTSA has back to back football championships in C-USA, and they add a new market with San Antonio while North Texas would be sharing a market with SMU, but I would have North Texas as the 2nd alternative, primarily if UAB stayed east and Texas was viewed as a higer priority and the PAC opted for North Texas over Tulsa.

Now for travel perspective, San Diego St. to Washington St. is the same distance as Colorado St. to Memphis. Memphis is must add in my opinion.

The conference exit fees for both the MWC and AAC will not allow this to happen until their respective media contracts end (2026 for MWC and 2032 for AAC). And even then, the media contract that prospective conference would garner is likely not much more than original AAC members are making now, especially considering travel costs.

Makes more sense for the PAC (OSU and WSU) and MWC to perform a full merger. No exit fees required and geography and travel costs makes sense.

The Pac won't go away. It will simply add schools, probably enough to get to at least 10 and likely 12. It will not lose its A5 status. (P5) The MWC will be Hit hard and the AAC also may lose 3 to 5.

(03-04-2023 08:13 AM)Owls9878 Wrote:  Makes more sense for the PAC (OSU and WSU) and MWC to perform a full merger. No exit fees required and geography and travel costs makes sense.

Ditto. But if a few of the elites hang on in the PAC too long, I could see them trying to buyout a couple of MW teams (giving them financial incentives to go elsewhere). Hopefully the MW hangs tough, though, and all get in.

Or maybe the Big XII takes two or more of the MW (SDSU and ??), so that the PAC-12-2-? has to take all of the others.

The new G5 will at least have daily paid programming by Clownzano. Dude has quotes to make up and bills to pay.

It’ll be the MWC with the Pac-12 logo on the field, court and diamond.

The question is, who’ll be left out in the MWC like Idaho and NMSU in the WAC in 2012?

I’ve been saying this for months, there’ll be one FBS conference in the West. It won’t be the MWC though.

(03-04-2023 02:28 AM)AztecNation Wrote:  IMO a better 16 PAC

Western:
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
UNLV
Hawaii FB only (try to get Gonzaga)
Nevada

Eastern:
SMU
UTSA
Rice
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming (IMO New Mexico should be in over them but the Colorado schools will probably want Wyoming)



That would leave the MWC with 3 left:

Utah State
SJSU
New Mexico

And AAC at
Temple
USF
East Carolina
Tulsa
UAB
FAU
UNT
Charlotte


They could merge but I don't think they will which means the MWC would need NMSU, UTEP and a 5 or so FCS schools to make the jump. AAC has a lot of options.

In that scenario, UTEP and NMSU would not go to that version of the MWC. They could just invite UNM to C-USA and let the last two schools that joined the MWC (SJSU and USU) get the Idaho and NMSU treatment. Also, there’s no signs any other of the Big Sky schools want to move to FBS. That’s exactly the reason why the MWC will meet the fate of the WAC.

The neat, tidy, and most likely outcome is that Oregon St and Washington St get absorbed into a 14-member MWC and everyone else stays put. The PNW land grants probably aren’t enough of a pull to get the AAC Texas schools to switch leagues and I don’t see UTEP, NMSU, or Texas St as additive to the MWC.

(03-04-2023 12:58 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  “After the Pac12 perishes” is a false premise. It will exist in some form.

Correct. Plus the "late night" games will be played by same teams we have always seen playing late night games----they will just be Big12, Big10, or ACC games....some may even be new-Pac12 games. Nothing will really change but the name and some of the match ups might be of more interest in the eastern time zones.

If the PAC dies, the remaining schools will keep the name and not sell it as the AAC did with the Big East name to the C7. I'd imagine they'd poach the top available MWC and midwest AAC schools then lose their CFP auto-bid after 2025.