Updated through Saturday 2/4. The tiebreaking for seeds goes like this:

Hofstra has the tiebreaker over CofC.
Stony Brook and NU split head to head. Stony Brook lost to Hofstra while NU hasn’t so NU gets the tiebreaker.
Hampton beat Monmouth and Elon hasn’t played either. So the three way tiebreaker goes Hampton (1-0), Elon (0-0), Monmouth (0-1)

Seven teams have been mathematically eliminated from first place. The magic number for first is only in relation to Hofstra, I wasn't going to go through all of the possible scenarios.

You can also see it here without having to download it.



  schedule7.png (Size: 60.91 KB / Downloads: 5)

How can seven teams be eliminated from finishing first? That would be all teams 4-7 or worse. 4-7 teams can win 11 games, and 4-8 teams can win 10 games. It is hypothetically possible to have a giant tie at 10-8. If Charleston and Hofstra lose every game; UNCW loses every game except for beating Charleston; Towson loses every game except for beating UNCW and Charleston; and Drexel loses every game except for beating Towson, Hofstra, and UNCW; all five will be 10-8.

Hofstra hosts Drexel on Monday. Hofstra will clinch a double ye on Monday if they win their next three ending that day; or if they split their next two, beat Drexel, and North Carolina A&T loses at least one out of three. Charleston will clinch a double bye on Monday if they win their next three, and Drexel loses at least one out of three. Both teams can clinch double byes with fewer wins if they get more help.
I say "double bye" because the CAA Tournament is five rounds with the first round just being 12 vs. 13. 11 teams get a double bye or single bye.

With one week left, I might do something like type the possible seeds for each team, but there are too many possibilities now for it to be useful.

(02-07-2023 05:43 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  How can seven teams be eliminated from finishing first? That would be all teams 4-7 or worse. 4-7 teams can win 11 games, and 4-8 teams can win 10 games. It is hypothetically possible to have a giant tie at 10-8. If Charleston and Hofstra lose every game; UNCW loses every game except for beating Charleston; Towson loses every game except for beating UNCW and Charleston; and Drexel loses every game except for beating Towson, Hofstra, and UNCW; all five will be 10-8.

Hofstra hosts Drexel on Monday. Hofstra will clinch a double ye on Monday if they win their next three ending that day; or if they split their next two, beat Drexel, and North Carolina A&T loses at least one out of three. Charleston will clinch a double bye on Monday if they win their next three, and Drexel loses at least one out of three. Both teams can clinch double byes with fewer wins if they get more help.
I say "double bye" because the CAA Tournament is five rounds with the first round just being 12 vs. 13. 11 teams get a double bye or single bye.

With one week left, I might do something like type the possible seeds for each team, but there are too many possibilities now for it to be useful.

I made a calculation error with the 4-7 teams. If you look at what I wrote, I put that it was only in relation to finishing in front of Hofstra. The 4-8 teams can not do that. I worded it poorly but if you read the rest you would have seen my intent.

The bottom 7 teams are going to have a war down the stretch for seeding.

(02-09-2023 02:44 PM)dan10 Wrote:  The bottom 7 teams are going to have a war down the stretch for seeding.

updated the seeds and included a bracket here

Replaced the last column with one that shows possible seeds (not accounting for tiebreakers).

Charleston and Hofstra have clinched a bye, while Hampton and NU are eliminated from bye contention.

Also, the five way tie at 5-9 was broken looking at the records versus the other teams. Delaware is on top at +2, Elon and Monmouth are second at +1 (they haven't played so Elon gets 8th by only losing to Hofstra once), then W&M at -1, and then Stony Brook last at -3.

I could have easily missed a win or loss on the tiebreaker so it may not be entirely accurate.

Still crazy how tight it is. Hampton is falling behind now, however they are blessed to get Drexel yet while at home so they could still climb. But a lot of cards to shuffle yet in the bottom 7

Never thought I'd say this, but I hope Hofstra wins the conference tourney. They should have gone in 2020 when the NCAA's were cancelled due to COVID and they are consistently good each year. Hopefully, they beat Charleston in the final and both teams go to the NCAAs.

Should also be fun to see who gets seeds 3-5 between Drexel, UNCW and Towson.

I’m curious for those in the know, what has exactly happened at Monmouth for their turnaround? They were getting smoked until about 2 weeks ago and seem to be a scoring machine now.

(02-14-2023 03:09 PM)dan10 Wrote:  Still crazy how tight it is. Hampton is falling behind now, however they are blessed to get Drexel yet while at home so they could still climb. But a lot of cards to shuffle yet in the bottom 7

Looking at the logjam, I don’t think Hampton has much of a shot to escape the cellar at this point and Northeastern would need to finish at least 2-2 I think to avoid the play-in. Even at that, which would mean they need to win both games this week against Monmouth and W&M, it probably won’t be enough.

There are 5 teams clogged at 5-9:
*W&M: 2 home and 2 away. All four games are against the lower tier.
*Monmouth: 1 home and 3 away, all four against the lower tier.
*Elon: 2 home, 2 away. One home is Charleston, rest lower tier.
*Delaware: 1 home (UNCW), 3 away inc Towson
*Stony Brook: 2 home (one is Hofstra), 2 away at Charleston and UNCW

W&M looks to have the most favorable schedule to finish, Stony Brook the toughest.

(02-14-2023 07:11 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  I’m curious for those in the know, what has exactly happened at Monmouth for their turnaround? They were getting smoked until about 2 weeks ago and seem to be a scoring machine now.

A good coach always helps. Especially with a new roster, a late season run isnt unheard of once things gel

(02-14-2023 04:51 PM)TribePride91 Wrote:  Never thought I'd say this, but I hope Hofstra wins the conference tourney. They should have gone in 2020 when the NCAA's were cancelled due to COVID and they are consistently good each year. Hopefully, they beat Charleston in the final and both teams go to the NCAAs.

Should also be fun to see who gets seeds 3-5 between Drexel, UNCW and Towson.

Thank you for the wishes. I have no hope of Charleston getting an at-large bid. If Charleston does not win the CAA Tournament, I think they are more likely to be worse than the last ten out (if the Selection Committee had to rank that far down) than to get an at-large bid.

(02-14-2023 07:11 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  I’m curious for those in the know, what has exactly happened at Monmouth for their turnaround? They were getting smoked until about 2 weeks ago and seem to be a scoring machine now.

Monmouth guy here. The main story line for Monmouth coming into the season was they lost like 90% of their scoring AND got nobody from the transfer portal to fill in the gap. So after losing to Saint Peter's in the MAAC Championship Game last March, this season was going to be a complete 180 and be a total rebuild. Nearly all the returning players were seeing minutes for the first time and new roles for everybody. Plus a new league to learn lol.

Since King Rice has gotten here, his non-conference scheduling philosophy has been to play high-majors, road games, and good mid-majors home and home (i.e. Princeton, Colgate, Yale, CAA schools, etc.). Usually works out for the program most years. However this season (and I believe '18-'19?) it back fired. To start the year, this new group couldn't score...nor play defense. Hence there 1-12 record out-of-conference.

It took until January for this young group to start playing defense for a full 40 minutes (most nights). Had some better results in CAA play but no wins. Finally by the end of January, the players started to trust each other and develop confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Starting line-ups and minutes hardened and now guys are stepping up into their roles nicely. As you all know, once you play defense and then start scoring, you can begin winning basketball games. After going 0-8 to start CAA play, they have won 5 out of 6 and I think have a good chance to win out (@Northeastern, v. Elon, @Hampton, @William & Mary).

This team is hot and definitely starting to show that they are the best of this Bottom 8 grouping. At this rate, I think its fair to say they are a favorite to win a CAA Tournament game. If they can rise up to the 6th seed, I wouldn't want to be UNCW or Towson; if they don't show up for that QF game and aren't ready to play for a full 40, Monmouth could take them down.

However, beyond a possible QF upset, this team is far from being competitive against the top of this league, especially when the top dogs are playing their best. Still some time away from that.

With all this being said, it has been nice to see this team improve each week and the future looks bright. Rice is a good coach and the one thing his kids have done every game this season is play hard. They never gave up and that is ultimately why they are winning games during the most important stretch of the season.

I know its been a rough start for Monmouth in the CAA but you all will see soon enough how good of an addition this program will be. Monmouth was a top-tier program in the MAAC and will be joining the top of the CAA shortly.

(02-16-2023 01:06 AM)NJcollegehoopsGUY Wrote:  

(02-14-2023 07:11 PM)Sitting bull Wrote:  I’m curious for those in the know, what has exactly happened at Monmouth for their turnaround? They were getting smoked until about 2 weeks ago and seem to be a scoring machine now.

Monmouth guy here. The main story line for Monmouth coming into the season was they lost like 90% of their scoring AND got nobody from the transfer portal to fill in the gap. So after losing to Saint Peter's in the MAAC Championship Game last March, this season was going to be a complete 180 and be a total rebuild. Nearly all the returning players were seeing minutes for the first time and new roles for everybody. Plus a new league to learn lol.

Since King Rice has gotten here, his non-conference scheduling philosophy has been to play high-majors, road games, and good mid-majors home and home (i.e. Princeton, Colgate, Yale, CAA schools, etc.). Usually works out for the program most years. However this season (and I believe '18-'19?) it back fired. To start the year, this new group couldn't score...nor play defense. Hence there 1-12 record out-of-conference.

It took until January for this young group to start playing defense for a full 40 minutes (most nights). Had some better results in CAA play but no wins. Finally by the end of January, the players started to trust each other and develop confidence on the offensive side of the ball. Starting line-ups and minutes hardened and now guys are stepping up into their roles nicely. As you all know, once you play defense and then start scoring, you can begin winning basketball games. After going 0-8 to start CAA play, they have won 5 out of 6 and I think have a good chance to win out (@Northeastern, v. Elon, @Hampton, @William & Mary).

This team is hot and definitely starting to show that they are the best of this Bottom 8 grouping. At this rate, I think its fair to say they are a favorite to win a CAA Tournament game. If they can rise up to the 6th seed, I wouldn't want to be UNCW or Towson; if they don't show up for that QF game and aren't ready to play for a full 40, Monmouth could take them down.

However, beyond a possible QF upset, this team is far from being competitive against the top of this league, especially when the top dogs are playing their best. Still some time away from that.

With all this being said, it has been nice to see this team improve each week and the future looks bright. Rice is a good coach and the one thing his kids have done every game this season is play hard. They never gave up and that is ultimately why they are winning games during the most important stretch of the season.

I know its been a rough start for Monmouth in the CAA but you all will see soon enough how good of an addition this program will be. Monmouth was a top-tier program in the MAAC and will be joining the top of the CAA shortly.

Good info! Post your analysis more often

Speaking of Monmouth, does anyone know why Vegas provides betting lines on all CAA games except those that include the Hawks?

(02-18-2023 09:31 AM)Sitting bull Wrote:  Speaking of Monmouth, does anyone know why Vegas provides betting lines on all CAA games except those that include the Hawks?

State law prohibits betting on New Jersey college teams, as well as on any collegiate game played in New Jersey -- even if they feature teams from other states

Source.

updated the seeds and included a new bracket here.

I wanted to update quicker, but I had the flu last week and pretty much just didn't fell like messing with it.

Let me know if you see any mistakes.

Updated through yesterday's games. I also included a short discussion of each teams highest and lowest possible finishes. you can find it all here

Good stuff. Crazy that so much is still up for grabs in the final game

The bottom of the league is a jumble

Yes, so many variables.

Elon is playing Delaware so I can’t see how one can be a 6 seed and the other an 8. If Delaware wins, they will be a 6 seed but that would put Elon as tied for last?