Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AAC's contract with ESPN stipulate if a certain amount of schools leave under their current TV deal, then it automatically goes into renegotiation?

And if one more school leaves, doesn't that trigger the renegotiation?

They've already lost UConn, Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati under their current deal.

chiefsfan, any idea?

(01-31-2023 11:15 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the AAC's contract with ESPN stipulate if a certain amount of schools leave under their current TV deal, then it automatically goes into renegotiation?

And if one more school leaves, doesn't that trigger the renegotiation?

They've already lost UConn, Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati under their current deal.

chiefsfan, any idea?

Already renegotiated after Houston, UCF, Cinci left

No such provisions in revised deal. The four you mentioned were the ones to trigger a new deal.

(01-31-2023 10:26 PM)GSUALUM17 Wrote:  Bottom line, if the original AAC members shared equal media distribution of $4mil~$4.5mil for every member of AAC 2.0, their invite would be enticing. Instead, they opted to milk $7mil payouts for themselves as long as they can, while hoping Rice/Charlotte/UTSA/FAU/UAB/UNT can collectively raise their profiles enough by the next media contract negotiations in 2031 to be in a position of strength against ESPN. Maybe this offer was good enough to escape the instability in CUSA, but I'm not sure the current SBC members would find the same offer financially attractive.

Charlotte hasn't upped anyone's profile yet, so I doubt '31 matters.. and anyone would escape the instability in C-DOA..

(01-31-2023 10:37 PM)slycat Wrote:  I'd be super sad to leave the Belt for the AAC.

It’s been too long since I last said it: F*** those guys.

(01-31-2023 09:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(01-31-2023 08:09 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  AAC is going to look at SBC schools. They'll try. No way they don't.

But I also think they'll consider WKU, MTSU, and NDSU.

That ship has sailed, a lot of Sun Belt programs would really think twice about making that move at this point. I know Marshall wouldn't do it at this point. The 2022 Sun Belt season has been a massive success for our program, and I think our fans are really really happy with how everything turned out.

I think the only Sun Belt school who COULD potentially think about it might be Georgia State.

I won’t lie, last round of realignment I was hopeful Marshall would land in the AAC and I get what they were doing, but 5/6 teams added were teams I’d hope Marshall could get away from. Now I wouldn’t even consider the AAC even if they offer more money (Being in a conference for schools like Appy st, JMU, ODU and GA SO is great!) and I agree I wouldn’t think many other teams would consider the move.

Honestly I don’t see a scenario where AAC schools come to the SBC either. As much as I’d like to share a conference with ECU.

(01-31-2023 02:02 PM)IslandHerd1 Wrote:  Memphis/ECU/UAB/Tulane to the SBC

That would be ideal. Not likely to happen, but it would be nice.

Add Memphis and Tulane to the West, and ECU and UAB to the East?

Or Memphis, Tulane and UAB to the West, and ECU plus two as yet unnamed Florida schools to the East? That would round out the SBC as a 20 team conference.

Honestly, I don’t see Stanford and Cal sticking around in the PAC if SMU and SDST are offered admission. Not throwing shade on SMU or San Diego academically, but they’re hardly in the same league as Stanford and Cal.
The two Bay Area schools are likely to jump to the Big 10, shortly followed by Washington and Oregon. Those moves would cement control of the West Coast media market for the Big 10, and buttress that league’s claim as the best academic conference with the 6 former AAU PAC schools. Of course, in turn, this would motivate the SEC to raid the AAC. Stay tuned.

I would be pretty surprised if the SBC went to twenty. Literally doubling football membership over the course of a few years

The way I see it, the Sun Belt should go to 18 with the additions of ECU, Memphis, UTSA, and either WKU or USF. This would give everyone a rival, be a football and baseball juggernaut, and improve basketball. Have the scheduling be 5 schools of each school’s choice to play every year then 4 others on a 3 year rotation. Actual pods wouldn’t work because certain rivals would be split up geographically, such as GS and App State. For instance, GS could choose to play App State, GA State, Coastal, Marshall, and Southern Miss every year. App State could choose to play GS, ECU, Marshall, JMU, and Coastal. Etc.

(01-31-2023 10:26 PM)GSUALUM17 Wrote:  Bottom line, if the original AAC members shared equal media distribution of $4mil~$4.5mil for every member of AAC 2.0, their invite would be enticing. Instead, they opted to milk $7mil payouts for themselves as long as they can, while hoping Rice/Charlotte/UTSA/FAU/UAB/UNT can collectively raise their profiles enough by the next media contract negotiations in 2031 to be in a position of strength against ESPN. Maybe this offer was good enough to escape the instability in CUSA, but I'm not sure the current SBC members would find the same offer financially attractive.

Was that an option? If so, it says a lot about the "legacy" AAC members, to choose to put half of their conference at a financial disadvantage. I wouldn't want to join that.

(01-31-2023 08:09 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  AAC is going to look at SBC schools. They'll try. No way they don't.

But I also think they'll consider WKU, MTSU, and NDSU.

Texas State
Georgia State
Old Dominion

I think ODU would stay, Georgia State and Texas State might make the jump.

(02-01-2023 05:14 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(01-31-2023 02:02 PM)IslandHerd1 Wrote:  Memphis/ECU/UAB/Tulane to the SBC

That would be ideal. Not likely to happen, but it would be nice.

Add Memphis and Tulane to the West, and ECU and UAB to the East?

Or Memphis, Tulane and UAB to the West, and ECU plus two as yet unnamed Florida schools to the East? That would round out the SBC as a 20 team conference.

Honestly, I don’t see Stanford and Cal sticking around in the PAC if SMU and SDST are offered admission. Not throwing shade on SMU or San Diego academically, but they’re hardly in the same league as Stanford and Cal.
The two Bay Area schools are likely to jump to the Big 10, shortly followed by Washington and Oregon. Those moves would cement control of the West Coast media market for the Big 10, and buttress that league’s claim as the best academic conference with the 6 former AAU PAC schools. Of course, in turn, this would motivate the SEC to raid the AAC. Stay tuned.

That aint happening,unless you meant ACC.

(02-01-2023 05:14 AM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(01-31-2023 02:02 PM)IslandHerd1 Wrote:  Memphis/ECU/UAB/Tulane to the SBC

That would be ideal. Not likely to happen, but it would be nice.

Add Memphis and Tulane to the West, and ECU and UAB to the East?

Or Memphis, Tulane and UAB to the West, and ECU plus two as yet unnamed Florida schools to the East? That would round out the SBC as a 20 team conference.

Honestly, I don’t see Stanford and Cal sticking around in the PAC if SMU and SDST are offered admission. Not throwing shade on SMU or San Diego academically, but they’re hardly in the same league as Stanford and Cal.
The two Bay Area schools are likely to jump to the Big 10, shortly followed by Washington and Oregon. Those moves would cement control of the West Coast media market for the Big 10, and buttress that league’s claim as the best academic conference with the 6 former AAU PAC schools. Of course, in turn, this would motivate the SEC to raid the AAC. Stay tuned.

We'll see what happens. To be clear- Stanford and Cal DO NOT increase the /member media value of the Big10

There is a value proposition to be made by including arguably the #1 Public and #1 private school in all of FBS value is worth far more than the marginal decline in TV value, but we'll see if the Big presidents agree.

I do think the Big 10 can't be done, as they need to make a quad out west- so its either Stanford/Cal or UW/Oregon.

I do agree that PAC is really going to be holding its nose to take SDSU (there is an incredible amount of elitism from UCAL to Cal State schools, but there other option is the B12 which has schools they view ~ as a Cal State school.

(02-01-2023 04:01 AM)Herdforlife Wrote:  

(01-31-2023 09:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(01-31-2023 08:09 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  AAC is going to look at SBC schools. They'll try. No way they don't.

But I also think they'll consider WKU, MTSU, and NDSU.

That ship has sailed, a lot of Sun Belt programs would really think twice about making that move at this point. I know Marshall wouldn't do it at this point. The 2022 Sun Belt season has been a massive success for our program, and I think our fans are really really happy with how everything turned out.

I think the only Sun Belt school who COULD potentially think about it might be Georgia State.

Now I wouldn’t even consider the AAC even if they offer more money (Being in a conference for schools like Appy st, JMU, ODU and GA SO is great!) and I agree I wouldn’t think many other teams would consider the move.

Honestly I don’t see a scenario where AAC schools come to the SBC either. As much as I’d like to share a conference with ECU.

Realistically, beyond all of the realignment dreams that AAC and SBC fans have... I believe the SBC and AAC are at a point right now where the schools are content with where they are and likely won't leave to join the other conference.

The only exceptions are Memphis, Navy, SMU, Wichita State, and USF. They have made it obvious that they have one foot out the door, but for now they are content and won't join another conference (unless it's the Big XII or Pac-12).

Let's simplify:

Assume SMU and SDSU are headed to the Pac.

Who does the AAC wind up getting?

I'd consider these as the targets (whether they'd accept is another matter)): Ga. State, TXST, WKU, MTSU, NDSU.

MW schools I think are unattainable. Same with Army. FIU isn't attractive because they're already in South Florida, and FIU has a horrendous athletics program. The other C-USA schools don't fit the marketz of the AAC. Other SBC schools either wouldn't be interested in the AAC, or wouldn't interest the AAC, or both.

Who does the MW target?

UTEP seems to be the assumption, and that may very well be what happens, but I think they may go a different direction.

NDSU would instantly be a contender not only for the MW championship, but may also be the MW's best bet to contend for that CFP spot.

I don't see any AAC schools going to the MW, nor do I see any MW schools going to the AAC. Therefore, UTSA, Rice, and N. Texas aren't possibilities. But maybe they decide they really, really want to get into the fast-growing part of Texas, and also near Texas high school recruiting territory. With AAC schools completely off the board, maybe TXST becomes a target (and, no, I don't want TXST to leave the SBC).

What I think could well happen is for the MW to attempt for all three: NDSU for football prowess, UTEP for proximity and historic rivalries, and TXST for Austin/San Antonio/recruiting.

AAC tries for Ga. State, but fails. TXST, too, but fails. In the end, they get MTSU. WKU folks lose their minds.

MW gets NDSU alone, as UTEP folks pull their hair out in frustration.

(02-01-2023 09:12 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  The only exceptions are Memphis, Navy, SMU, Wichita State, and USF. They have made it obvious that they have one foot out the door, but for now they are content and won't join another conference (unless it's the Big XII or Pac-12).

I think Wichita State's preference would be the A-10 at this point, with the MVC as a fallback.

That's only if the AAC loses a few more schools. The AAC still does have schools with histories for some success. We all know how good Memphis can be. Though not recently, Temple has been known for March Madness appearances; they were the face of the A-10 for quite a while. Tulsa has had some good teams. SMU has a high ceiling, as shown under Larry Brown. N. Texas was likely the strongest C-USA program during its C-USA tenure. FAU is solid this year. Charlotte has had good teams, at least going back a couple decades. UAB wasn't too shabby in years past. So WSU may want to stick around before jumping the gun. Grass isn't always greener.

(02-01-2023 09:51 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(02-01-2023 09:12 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  The only exceptions are Memphis, Navy, SMU, Wichita State, and USF. They have made it obvious that they have one foot out the door, but for now they are content and won't join another conference (unless it's the Big XII or Pac-12).

I think Wichita State's preference would be the A-10 at this point, with the MVC as a fallback.

That's only if the AAC loses a few more schools. The AAC still does have schools with histories for some success. We all know how good Memphis can be. Though not recently, Temple has been known for March Madness appearances; they were the face of the A-10 for quite a while. Tulsa has had some good teams. SMU has a high ceiling, as shown under Larry Brown. N. Texas was likely the strongest C-USA program during its C-USA tenure. FAU is solid this year. Charlotte has had good teams, at least going back a couple decades. UAB wasn't too shabby in years past. So WSU may want to stick around before jumping the gun. Grass isn't always greener.

Once Memphis is gone, the MVC, A10 and MWC will all be better basketball conferences than the AAC. That will matter to WSU. I would also think geography would give the edge to the MVC or MWC. But nothing happens until Memphis finds a lifeboat out.

Our President has said in the last few months they are committed to the SBC. Of course that means little these days. The AAC is attractive due to Texas teams in the conference. I really hope they don't look at that and jump if offered.

The SBC has a better vision and are united. AAC is made of a bunch of teams that just want to jump at first offer.

I can't see TXST saying yes to MWC. Even more on an island and tv plays at awful times when on the west coast.

I think they consider an offer from AAC and give it 50/50 chance they take it.

(01-31-2023 01:41 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(01-31-2023 01:22 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  Imagine the reaction if/when the AAC backfills SMU with either FIU or MTSU.

If WKU got left behind in CUSA by MTSU, the reactions by both fanbases would create message board content the likes of which we've never seen before.

I think we would pretty well expect to get the shaft at this point. It is what we are accustomed to. Now if WKU somehow got the AAC invite over MTSU, that would make for some nice fireworks. One of the big hold ups in the MAC move for us both was their admin not wanting to financially commit to the exit/entrance and then lock themselves in to a potential GOR with the AAC still in the picture. If they were passed over by the AAC for lowly WKU it would be some poetic justice.

(02-01-2023 07:41 AM)lelandhardy Wrote:  The way I see it, the Sun Belt should go to 18 with the additions of ECU, Memphis, UTSA, and either WKU or USF. This would give everyone a rival, be a football and baseball juggernaut, and improve basketball. Have the scheduling be 5 schools of each school’s choice to play every year then 4 others on a 3 year rotation. Actual pods wouldn’t work because certain rivals would be split up geographically, such as GS and App State. For instance, GS could choose to play App State, GA State, Coastal, Marshall, and Southern Miss every year. App State could choose to play GS, ECU, Marshall, JMU, and Coastal. Etc.

I used to think that so we could say we had all the best teams but really we all just want the best access to the playoff and getting through an 18-20 team conference is not the best access...even a 14 team conference is very difficult. We need a better tv contract and we need to start getting the NY6 bowl before we talk about more teams in the conference. Also need winnable P5 teams on the schedule. If Troy would have beaten Ole Miss they may have been in the NY6 bowl. Tulane strength of schedule will look more like an SB schedule without UCF, Houston and Cincy and the P5 wins will be the difference.

(02-01-2023 12:32 PM)everyone Wrote:  

(02-01-2023 07:41 AM)lelandhardy Wrote:  The way I see it, the Sun Belt should go to 18 with the additions of ECU, Memphis, UTSA, and either WKU or USF. This would give everyone a rival, be a football and baseball juggernaut, and improve basketball. Have the scheduling be 5 schools of each school’s choice to play every year then 4 others on a 3 year rotation. Actual pods wouldn’t work because certain rivals would be split up geographically, such as GS and App State. For instance, GS could choose to play App State, GA State, Coastal, Marshall, and Southern Miss every year. App State could choose to play GS, ECU, Marshall, JMU, and Coastal. Etc.

I used to think that so we could say we had all the best teams but really we all just want the best access to the playoff and getting through an 18-20 team conference is not the best access...even a 14 team conference is very difficult. We need a better tv contract and we need to start getting the NY6 bowl before we talk about more teams in the conference. Also need winnable P5 teams on the schedule. If Troy would have beaten Ole Miss they may have been in the NY6 bowl. Tulane strength of schedule will look more like an SB schedule without UCF, Houston and Cincy and the P5 wins will be the difference.

A lot of how this all shakes out will ultimately be determined by ESPN contracts. If the AAC magically gets a boosted contract and can offer $8m or $10m to new members, there will be a lot of schools eager to join. If they continue to offer $2m to new members or that contract shrinks after SMU leaves, you will see the reverse. Theres no advantage to SBC members joining the AAC at a $2m payout and increased travel. Texas St might be the only exception to that. ECU, Navy, Memphis and others will rethink things if their payout is reduced.

As long as SBC continues to perform well and can draw eyeballs, the media contract should improve, and the long term prospects look good for retaining existing members and growing the conference if desired.