(01-11-2023 11:43 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  

(01-11-2023 07:04 PM)Oldyeller Wrote:  

(01-11-2023 01:30 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  

(01-11-2023 11:56 AM)Oldyeller Wrote:  With the playoffs, expanding, I see no benefit in affiliating with any conference that would be a potential suitor outside of the Sunbelt east with maybe the exception of individual programs such as East Carolina USF or UCF. They’re more likely to land in the Sun Belt as a result of some major shake up. Travel for the Florida Us being the second driving factor. Parity is coming and long term this should be our goal to solidify our position in the south east. That’s 10 in the east. The west would have tougher decisions to make with Texas Us ULM and UAB. I see mega Sun Belt conference in the not so distant future as a more likely scenario. We have the real estate to make it happen.

There's quite a huge difference in likelihood between those three:

ECU - Most likely - This would take the continued degradation of the AAC (likely by teams such as Memphis and SMU leaving for greener pastures) and a reduced television contract more in line with that of the Sunbelt. This very well could happen, likely not anytime soon, but definitely a possibility.

USF - Less likely - This would take the same scenario as above, but unlike ECU, USF is a candidate for P5 expansion (Big XII or ACC if it gets raided by SEC). Possible, but less likely since they might be one of the one's moving up that leads to ECU to the Sunbelt.

UCF - Very unlikely - Anything's possible, but this would likely take the dissolution of the Big XII, which at this time might be the most stable P5 conference outside of the Big10 and SEC. The difference in television contract's between the Big XII and Sunbelt greatly exceed any travel costs.

That's all pretty obvious. The question before us is given certain circumstance who would drop out of the P5? UCF is squarely in the headlights. Not that the least of your concerns is the Sun Belt. You know it's coming. The Sun Belt will make certain your OOC wins are unimpressive. Either get on the train or keep chasing rainbows. Your success is location. We own it.

Ok, but wow you are enthusiastic! Good luck to you.

Good luck to you. We'll hang our hats on regional rivalries and carve our position out of the southeast and welcome home all those chasing the rainbow. We can do that now.

I believe this would require some freak occurrences to take place. The earliest example I can think of took place well before the idea of "G5" and "P5" conferences existed. Temple got kicked out of the Big East after the 2004 season because they performed so badly. This was in the BCS days of the 2000's, however. The Owls were forced to become Independent for a couple of seasons before they got into the MAC, then meandered there way back into the Big East and into what is now the American.

That's probably the only time I can think of (in recent memory) where such an occurrence happened. It would require a lot for a P5 school to be told to skedaddle like that, or for one to decide to simply leave.

(01-13-2023 01:00 AM)BnG_Jacket Wrote:  I believe this would require some freak occurrences to take place. The earliest example I can think of took place well before the idea of "G5" and "P5" conferences existed. Temple got kicked out of the Big East after the 2004 season because they performed so badly. This was in the BCS days of the 2000's, however. The Owls were forced to become Independent for a couple of seasons before they got into the MAC, then meandered there way back into the Big East and into what is now the American.

That's probably the only time I can think of (in recent memory) where such an occurrence happened. It would require a lot for a P5 school to be told to skedaddle like that, or for one to decide to simply leave.

I'm thinking you could include the SWC teams that got left behind with the exit of the Texas four to the Big 8/12 in this situation, but you're right, it's a rarity, and thinking back on how long ago that actually was is making me realize how old I really am.

(01-13-2023 01:00 AM)BnG_Jacket Wrote:  I believe this would require some freak occurrences to take place. The earliest example I can think of took place well before the idea of "G5" and "P5" conferences existed. Temple got kicked out of the Big East after the 2004 season because they performed so badly. This was in the BCS days of the 2000's, however. The Owls were forced to become Independent for a couple of seasons before they got into the MAC, then meandered there way back into the Big East and into what is now the American.

That's probably the only time I can think of (in recent memory) where such an occurrence happened. It would require a lot for a P5 school to be told to skedaddle like that, or for one to decide to simply leave.

Even Temple with the Big East was a special case because Temple was a football only member. They were in the A10 for the other sports. Which is to say I don't know if a full member has ever actually been kicked out of a conference since the SWC thing was similar to when the MWC just broke off from the WAC instead of directly kicking anyone out.

(01-11-2023 07:56 PM)wb247 Wrote:  The ACC isn't going anywhere. If for no other reason, the NCGA will prevent UNC "moving up" if it means NCSU will be "left behind." I feel like the same thing would happen in VA, but I don't know as much about their politics. Basically, you can consider UNC, UVA, VT, NCSU, and Duke to be a package deal. No conference wants that kind of addition.

Interesting point, but wasn’t there state legislature that was supposed to keep Oklahoma and Oklahoma state together? California schools are being split apart. Not saying it will happen, just saying when there’s big money on the table people will try to work around it.

And to those saying the ACC would just backfill if they lost members. Let’s say you do split the NC schools apart, schools are going to the Big10, Big12 and SEC. Then you’re left with a conference of Boston College, Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest.. maybe some more, you think those programs would be satisfied with the basketball additions they’d be getting from the AAC? AAC basketball wasn’t good enough for UCONN.. I’d have to think schools like Duke and Syracuse would just go to the Big East. At that point would there even be enough conference left to backfill?

(01-07-2023 09:17 PM)Herdforlife Wrote:  Haven’t seen this discussed much, but college football is weird these days, ACC/Big12/PAC12 could all be looking at trying to cannibalize each other. My question is if there were a situation where lower level power 5 schools were asked to leave a conference or if schools were left behind in significant realignment (some examples being Wake Forest, Georgia Tech or Vanderbilt)

A: Would you want them in the Sun Belt
B: How do you make the Sun Belt a more attractive option than the AAC

Personally I think a Wake Forest, ECU, Vanderbilt and Memphis add would be as good as it gets. Then again how far does Vandy and Wake Forest drop off when they’re not reaping the benefits of being in a big conference.

If the PAC/B12/ACC get raided they will add from AAC/MWC, the AAC/MWC will raid those below.

(01-14-2023 10:39 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  

(01-07-2023 09:17 PM)Herdforlife Wrote:  Haven’t seen this discussed much, but college football is weird these days, ACC/Big12/PAC12 could all be looking at trying to cannibalize each other. My question is if there were a situation where lower level power 5 schools were asked to leave a conference or if schools were left behind in significant realignment (some examples being Wake Forest, Georgia Tech or Vanderbilt)

A: Would you want them in the Sun Belt
B: How do you make the Sun Belt a more attractive option than the AAC

Personally I think a Wake Forest, ECU, Vanderbilt and Memphis add would be as good as it gets. Then again how far does Vandy and Wake Forest drop off when they’re not reaping the benefits of being in a big conference.

If the PAC/B12/ACC get raided they will add from AAC/MWC, the AAC/MWC will raid those below.

I acknowledge that the AAC has been atop the group of 5, but if the AAC loses 2-3 more teams they will be in the same situation as CUSA last year. The AAC will get passed up by the Sun Belt and some of its teams may jump ship to stay atop of the group of 5. AAC better hope the MWC loses teams too so they have a shot at Air Force and Colorado St. And ESPN protects them from getting picked apart.

MWC’s only options are FCS or maybe UTEP/New Mexico St. I think the MWC has access to the only legitimate FCS call ups left. What CUSA has done has been unfortunate for FBS.

(01-13-2023 09:33 PM)space orange Wrote:  

(01-13-2023 01:00 AM)BnG_Jacket Wrote:  I believe this would require some freak occurrences to take place. The earliest example I can think of took place well before the idea of "G5" and "P5" conferences existed. Temple got kicked out of the Big East after the 2004 season because they performed so badly. This was in the BCS days of the 2000's, however. The Owls were forced to become Independent for a couple of seasons before they got into the MAC, then meandered there way back into the Big East and into what is now the American.

That's probably the only time I can think of (in recent memory) where such an occurrence happened. It would require a lot for a P5 school to be told to skedaddle like that, or for one to decide to simply leave.

Even Temple with the Big East was a special case because Temple was a football only member. They were in the A10 for the other sports. Which is to say I don't know if a full member has ever actually been kicked out of a conference since the SWC thing was similar to when the MWC just broke off from the WAC instead of directly kicking anyone out.

The end result is pretty much the same, though. Kicking out members is just about impossible, so what you do is just have everybody else leave and not take them with you. It happened when the Big 12 was formed. It happened when the MWC was formed, it happened when the AAC was formed, and it most recently happened when CUSA was gutted by 2 existing conferences.

The Pac is less than secure right now, and the ACC could get picked apart by the Ten and SEC once that GoR expires. There well could be some programs left holding their weiners in the not terribly distant future. In the context of this thread, though, that probably results in lot bigger shakeup than the SBC just picking up some leftovers.

(01-15-2023 02:11 AM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(01-13-2023 09:33 PM)space orange Wrote:  

(01-13-2023 01:00 AM)BnG_Jacket Wrote:  I believe this would require some freak occurrences to take place. The earliest example I can think of took place well before the idea of "G5" and "P5" conferences existed. Temple got kicked out of the Big East after the 2004 season because they performed so badly. This was in the BCS days of the 2000's, however. The Owls were forced to become Independent for a couple of seasons before they got into the MAC, then meandered there way back into the Big East and into what is now the American.

That's probably the only time I can think of (in recent memory) where such an occurrence happened. It would require a lot for a P5 school to be told to skedaddle like that, or for one to decide to simply leave.

Even Temple with the Big East was a special case because Temple was a football only member. They were in the A10 for the other sports. Which is to say I don't know if a full member has ever actually been kicked out of a conference since the SWC thing was similar to when the MWC just broke off from the WAC instead of directly kicking anyone out.

The end result is pretty much the same, though. Kicking out members is just about impossible, so what you do is just have everybody else leave and not take them with you. It happened when the Big 12 was formed. It happened when the MWC was formed, it happened when the AAC was formed, and it most recently happened when CUSA was gutted by 2 existing conferences.

The Pac is less than secure right now, and the ACC could get picked apart by the Ten and SEC once that GoR expires. There well could be some programs left holding their weiners in the not terribly distant future. In the context of this thread, though, that probably results in lot bigger shakeup than the SBC just picking up some leftovers.

been saying this since '11 when the espenis began stirring the pot ... it's inevitable ... the next merry-go-round is going to be a hoot-n-half...

the final phase of college football realignment is right around the corner when the flagship universities give the NCAA the final 'finga bang'...

@TTTooMuch$$$

(01-15-2023 07:20 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  the final phase of college football realignment is right around the corner when the flagship universities give the NCAA the final 'finga bang'...

@TTTooMuch$$$

As you know, I’m long ready for it to happen. Most of us are over here just wanting to play college sports. The handful trying to race to see who can crack a billion-dollar budget first need to leave us out of that mess.

On the path things are on, eventually, players will have to become legit state employees or the athletic operations will have to be separated from the universities. There’s too many aspects of “pro” and “scholarship” at the mega-money programs that simply don’t jive with one another.

(01-15-2023 01:43 PM)HarborPointe Wrote:  

(01-15-2023 07:20 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  the final phase of college football realignment is right around the corner when the flagship universities give the NCAA the final 'finga bang'...

@TTTooMuch$$$

As you know, I’m long ready for it to happen. Most of us are over here just wanting to play college sports. The handful trying to race to see who can crack a billion-dollar budget first need to leave us out of that mess.

On the path things are on, eventually, players will have to become legit state employees or the athletic operations will have to be separated from the universities. There’s too many aspects of “pro” and “scholarship” at the mega-money programs that simply don’t jive with one another.

yessir ... we've beaten this bush a time or twenty ...

there's no question it will evolve to the point where legalese/congressional intervention will happen down the row-add (no mas, mods ... I'm not trying to make this political ... it's simple reality)...

regardless, my teeth are still solid enough to pound a li'l more popcorn ...

(01-08-2023 02:43 PM)Dukes94 Wrote:  Kids, kids. Wake Forest They’ve been playing football since the late 19th century.

So has TXST. I wish that meant something...

Of all the ACC schools Wake has not had a bad football season since 2015. I'd suspect as a private school they also have some pockets. Syracuse and BC have been probably the lowest hanging fruit in football overall for the last 10 years or so.