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THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
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RussH Offline
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Post: #1
THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
Two red-flags regarding the San Jose State offense:

1.) San Jose State — even including the number from Hawaii which nearly doubles their average — is running for 2 yards and change per carry in the back half of the season. From October 15th through November 19th, their O had a 5-week stretch where they carried the ball 122 times for 250 yards. On the year, they are in the basement as a rushing offense, ranking 124th out of 131 football teams in FBS, or, in other words, doing as well as a bunch of 3-9 teams (including Akron).

Below are the national rankings for each of San Jose State’s last 10 opponents, filtering for Rushing Defense.

Hawaii — 126
Utah State - 118
SDSU — 37
CSU — 87
Nevada — 88
Fresno State — 79
UNLV — 78
Wyoming — 67
WMU - 47
Auburn - 97

This averages out to right around where Eastern Michigan has settled on the year (82 of 131). FWIW, The Eagles would be ten spots higher if only using numbers after The Adjustment.

Point here being:

SJSU hasn’t been able to run the ball and it’s not like they’ve been playing Wisconsin.



2.) The Spartan opponent most similar to Eagles heart-and-soul All-American MVP Jose Ramirez — Fresno State’s Edge Rusher David Perales; First-Team All-MW; 10.5 sacks on the year— terrorized them a month and a half ago to the tune of 4 sacks and innumerable disruptions.

Who was trying to stop him? Are they playing in this bowl game?

Both of these points seem gigantic, the first one maybe more than the second (maybe)?

A team that can’t run the ball? In November?

That has to matter, doesn’t it?

Doesn’t it?

I’ll say this: the San Jose State Offense is terrifying on tape.

The QB, Cordeiro, is a total stud, they make almost zero mistakes — #1 in the country in turnovers — and they have a best-player-we’ll-see-this-year at WR. Cooks — #4 — is Top 20 in NCAA in yards per game and #11 in TDs. He’s a freak. The SJSU tape on YouTube is limited but click on any single one of those and wait for the play by Cook, because there is one. You won’t miss it.

Here’s a link to the Utah State game, queued up for Cooks' opening-drive, better-than-you TD: https://youtu.be/Zsa3NZfgBMw?t=241

They are an offense that punts with pleasure, protects the ball, and waits for their cats to spring. I don’t have the energy to corral the number of explosives but it’s gonna be huge. They flash like crazy. It’s a very good offense. Players everywhere. Cordeiro is terrifying — great feet, great arm, a swag that fills the stadium.

In a way, SJSU is in the CC mold — play complimentary football, take what they give you, zero out the mistakes, win on special teams, win in the red zone, generate turnovers — nothing flashy. Win the game.

But they can’t run the ball…?

Well so, here’s the thing: they don’t run that much (only two offenses in the country run less: Mississippi State and Old Dominion). And when they run with their premiere back — Kairee Robinson — they’ve been effective. He’s had 6 games averaging more than 5 yards a pop and in the Spartans' three blowout wins — Hawaii, UNLV, and Western Michigan — he ran for over 6 yards per carry.

Robinson only has 3 rushes over 20 yards on the year and none of them for more than 40 yards, so it’s not like they get a ton of explosives from him and while the WMU number scares me the most, a closer look perhaps reveals a strategy of doubling Cooks (who had his worst game of the season while their #2 receiver had his best). I wouldn’t do that and I hope the Eagles won’t either.

Which brings me back to A Strong Belief in the Game of Football: not being able to run the ball is a rot in the system. No way around that. The inability to run the ball has always been — and will forever be — a gigantic red flag for any football game anywhere but especially late-season football games, what with injuries piling up and hard, cold footballs, frigid environments, close games. Gotta run the ball.

Can San Jose State run the ball against the Eagles? Perhaps there is an argument to be made that — the numbers notwithstanding — the Spartans, when they want to, are perfectly capable of running the ball. There’s maybe some truth to that, but I would point to their numbers on stop downs (terrible on 3rd down; bad on 4th down) and specifically to their loss at Utah State for illustration: facing back-to-back stop downs (3rd and 1; 4th and 1) on a must-score drive (down 34-31, under 2 minutes to play), The Spartans tossed two incompletions.

Ballgame.

Will the Unnamed Spartan X have an easier time with Jose Ramirez than Unnamed Spartan X did with David Perales?

Can Cordeiro throw the Eagles D out of pressure in the quick game against straight up, in-your-face man coverage, never mind the penalties? Because that’s what I would do, if I’m putting on the hard hat and the headset.

If Shine can limit Cook (there will be no stopping him) — limit him to 1 TD, 2 explosives, something like that, I don’t care if Shine gets 15 PIs to do it — and we can play tough elsewhere, including keeping Robinson under 3ypc and forcing Cordeiro into quick-game success and run-for-your-life-explosives every now and then: fine, Eagles win 27-24.

If EMU can run the ball.

And we don’t turn it over.

And we don't turn it over.

And we don't turn it over.

For as good as our offense has looked — and boy has it been looking sharp — those early season interceptions over the middle against Louisiana and Arizona State sure loom large in a game like this. The Eagles are gonna need those plays to not happen.

Wouldn’t it be something for Powell to punctuate his remarkable season in a game like this? I’m not sure — with the exception of Shine and maybe Gunnar Oakes — there’s a single player I’m rooting for more. I think if Powell is able to play like he’s been playing, EMU wins another trophy.

If EMU can run the ball.

Because — against SJSU — not many teams have been able to.

Whispered into the end of this very long post: The Spartan defense is legit.

They are top 30 in most defensive categories (including Rush Defense), top 10 in sacks and TFL and red zone D, and held — for instance — Western Michigan to under 3ypc on 50 carries. The Spartans are extremely active on the DLine — a lot of twists and stunts — and play a rolling middle-open D that mostly plays zone but sprinkles in some man and combo coverage stuff, mostly on stop downs. I like the match up with what we do on offense (a lot of windows for crossing and sit-down seam stuff, deep seam opportunities, cushion for the quick game, delicious sideline pockets, all of this provided Powell knows what he’s looking at (and provided EMU can run the ball!).

I think the move from SJSU will be to sell out to stop Samson and bet on their good-but-not-Toledo secondary to win one-on-one matchups against Knue and co. I think that’s overall a good match-up for us in part because I believe our RPO game is strong and if we can stretch them with TE play — doesn’t this feel like a Paaske / Gunnar game? — we can get them into playing-catch up with personnel which has a habit of turning into tempo inside-zone with Samson, which is the friggin' best.

Anyway, this Eagles fan is clinging to the single weakness I can find on the Spartans and holding on for dear life. It’s gonna be a great game between two really good teams.

Go Eagles.
12-15-2022 12:39 PM
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holybovine Offline
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Post: #2
RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
Nice summary! Thank you for sharing!

This is the “Rick Rasnick Bowl”. Some of you olds will know what I mean…

Go Eagles!
12-15-2022 12:48 PM
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cidbearit Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
(12-15-2022 12:39 PM)RussH Wrote:  Two red-flags regarding the San Jose State offense:

1.) San Jose State — even including the number from Hawaii which nearly doubles their average — is running for 2 yards and change per carry in the back half of the season. From October 15th through November 19th, their O had a 5-week stretch where they carried the ball 122 times for 250 yards. On the year, they are in the basement as a rushing offense, ranking 124th out of 131 football teams in FBS, or, in other words, doing as well as a bunch of 3-9 teams (including Akron).

Below are the national rankings for each of San Jose State’s last 10 opponents, filtering for Rushing Defense.

Hawaii — 126
Utah State - 118
SDSU — 37
CSU — 87
Nevada — 88
Fresno State — 79
UNLV — 78
Wyoming — 67
WMU - 47
Auburn - 97

This averages out to right around where Eastern Michigan has settled on the year (82 of 131). FWIW, The Eagles would be ten spots higher if only using numbers after The Adjustment.

Point here being:

SJSU hasn’t been able to run the ball and it’s not like they’ve been playing Wisconsin.



2.) The Spartan opponent most similar to Eagles heart-and-soul All-American MVP Jose Ramirez — Fresno State’s Edge Rusher David Perales; First-Team All-MW; 10.5 sacks on the year— terrorized them a month and a half ago to the tune of 4 sacks and innumerable disruptions.

Who was trying to stop him? Are they playing in this bowl game?

Both of these points seem gigantic, the first one maybe more than the second (maybe)?

A team that can’t run the ball? In November?

That has to matter, doesn’t it?

Doesn’t it?

I’ll say this: the San Jose State Offense is terrifying on tape.

The QB, Cordeiro, is a total stud, they make almost zero mistakes — #1 in the country in turnovers — and they have a best-player-we’ll-see-this-year at WR. Cooks — #4 — is Top 20 in NCAA in yards per game and #11 in TDs. He’s a freak. The SJSU tape on YouTube is limited but click on any single one of those and wait for the play by Cook, because there is one. You won’t miss it.

Here’s a link to the Utah State game, queued up for Cooks' opening-drive, better-than-you TD: https://youtu.be/Zsa3NZfgBMw?t=241

They are an offense that punts with pleasure, protects the ball, and waits for their cats to spring. I don’t have the energy to corral the number of explosives but it’s gonna be huge. They flash like crazy. It’s a very good offense. Players everywhere. Cordeiro is terrifying — great feet, great arm, a swag that fills the stadium.

In a way, SJSU is in the CC mold — play complimentary football, take what they give you, zero out the mistakes, win on special teams, win in the red zone, generate turnovers — nothing flashy. Win the game.

But they can’t run the ball…?

Well so, here’s the thing: they don’t run that much (only two offenses in the country run less: Mississippi State and Old Dominion). And when they run with their premiere back — Kairee Robinson — they’ve been effective. He’s had 6 games averaging more than 5 yards a pop and in the Spartans' three blowout wins — Hawaii, UNLV, and Western Michigan — he ran for over 6 yards per carry.

Robinson only has 3 rushes over 20 yards on the year and none of them for more than 40 yards, so it’s not like they get a ton of explosives from him and while the WMU number scares me the most, a closer look perhaps reveals a strategy of doubling Cooks (who had his worst game of the season while their #2 receiver had his best). I wouldn’t do that and I hope the Eagles won’t either.

Which brings me back to A Strong Belief in the Game of Football: not being able to run the ball is a rot in the system. No way around that. The inability to run the ball has always been — and will forever be — a gigantic red flag for any football game anywhere but especially late-season football games, what with injuries piling up and hard, cold footballs, frigid environments, close games. Gotta run the ball.

Can San Jose State run the ball against the Eagles? Perhaps there is an argument to be made that — the numbers notwithstanding — the Spartans, when they want to, are perfectly capable of running the ball. There’s maybe some truth to that, but I would point to their numbers on stop downs (terrible on 3rd down; bad on 4th down) and specifically to their loss at Utah State for illustration: facing back-to-back stop downs (3rd and 1; 4th and 1) on a must-score drive (down 34-31, under 2 minutes to play), The Spartans tossed two incompletions.

Ballgame.

Will the Unnamed Spartan X have an easier time with Jose Ramirez than Unnamed Spartan X did with David Perales?

Can Cordeiro throw the Eagles D out of pressure in the quick game against straight up, in-your-face man coverage, never mind the penalties? Because that’s what I would do, if I’m putting on the hard hat and the headset.

If Shine can limit Cook (there will be no stopping him) — limit him to 1 TD, 2 explosives, something like that, I don’t care if Shine gets 15 PIs to do it — and we can play tough elsewhere, including keeping Robinson under 3ypc and forcing Cordeiro into quick-game success and run-for-your-life-explosives every now and then: fine, Eagles win 27-24.

If EMU can run the ball.

And we don’t turn it over.

And we don't turn it over.

And we don't turn it over.

For as good as our offense has looked — and boy has it been looking sharp — those early season interceptions over the middle against Louisiana and Arizona State sure loom large in a game like this. The Eagles are gonna need those plays to not happen.

Wouldn’t it be something for Powell to punctuate his remarkable season in a game like this? I’m not sure — with the exception of Shine and maybe Gunnar Oakes — there’s a single player I’m rooting for more. I think if Powell is able to play like he’s been playing, EMU wins another trophy.

If EMU can run the ball.

Because — against SJSU — not many teams have been able to.

Whispered into the end of this very long post: The Spartan defense is legit.

They are top 30 in most defensive categories (including Rush Defense), top 10 in sacks and TFL and red zone D, and held — for instance — Western Michigan to under 3ypc on 50 carries. The Spartans are extremely active on the DLine — a lot of twists and stunts — and play a rolling middle-open D that mostly plays zone but sprinkles in some man and combo coverage stuff, mostly on stop downs. I like the match up with what we do on offense (a lot of windows for crossing and sit-down seam stuff, deep seam opportunities, cushion for the quick game, delicious sideline pockets, all of this provided Powell knows what he’s looking at (and provided EMU can run the ball!).

I think the move from SJSU will be to sell out to stop Samson and bet on their good-but-not-Toledo secondary to win one-on-one matchups against Knue and co. I think that’s overall a good match-up for us in part because I believe our RPO game is strong and if we can stretch them with TE play — doesn’t this feel like a Paaske / Gunnar game? — we can get them into playing-catch up with personnel which has a habit of turning into tempo inside-zone with Samson, which is the friggin' best.

Anyway, this Eagles fan is clinging to the single weakness I can find on the Spartans and holding on for dear life. It’s gonna be a great game between two really good teams.

Go Eagles.

Great Summary!

For me the wildcard in this will be the cold, and how SJSU handles it. How will their QB and RB's cold hands work on a hard ball? Will their receivers be able to manage cold hard balls hitting their cold hands? Will their kickers be affected by the hardness of a cold ball? Overall, how will their team tolerate 3.5 hours standing in the cold on a hard field?

EMU has been practicing outside this week. The Eagles know what it's like to play in the cold. They will be acclimated to it when they step onto the field for their practices on Saturday and Sunday.

SJSU has been practicing in temps in the upper 50's to lower 60's. Not necessarily warm, but a far cry from the mid to upper 30's. When they step on the field Saturday and Sunday for their practices, learning to deal with the cold will challenge them.

I think the Eagles have a definite advantage here. it will definitely be interesting to see if the weather becomes a factor.
12-15-2022 01:21 PM
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EagleHawk Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
Can EMU beat a bowl caliber team is the question. They haven't proven they can thus far this season having lost 49-21, 50-31, and 27-24.
12-15-2022 01:56 PM
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EMUGLORYDAYSthe90's Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
(12-15-2022 01:56 PM)EagleHawk Wrote:  Can EMU beat a bowl caliber team is the question. They haven't proven they can thus far this season having lost 49-21, 50-31, and 27-24.
Incredibly valid point! We won 8 games this season, and not one is going to a bowl game! Not sure if any even had a winning record either! This was the easiest schedule we've played in a long time! But, I'm very glad to see us finally win 8 games! Great job Emu coaching staff!
12-15-2022 02:36 PM
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Jerry Weaver Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
(12-15-2022 12:48 PM)holybovine Wrote:  Nice summary! Thank you for sharing!

This is the “Rick Rasnick Bowl”. Some of you olds will know what I mean…

Go Eagles!

Dammit Nickle, when the opponent was announced, Rick Rasnick was the first name to pop into my head. He was the asst for SJSU and we hired him just a few years later. Good post!
12-16-2022 08:09 PM
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holybovine Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
(12-16-2022 08:09 PM)Jerry Weaver Wrote:  
(12-15-2022 12:48 PM)holybovine Wrote:  Nice summary! Thank you for sharing!

This is the “Rick Rasnick Bowl”. Some of you olds will know what I mean…

Go Eagles!

Dammit Nickle, when the opponent was announced, Rick Rasnick was the first name to pop into my head. He was the asst for SJSU and we hired him just a few years later. Good post!

Thanks Jerry; I’m a huge Rasnick guy. He actually did great work with EMU in comparison to the level of support he received. Not to mention the state of the program when he took over.

RIP Rick.
12-16-2022 11:52 PM
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RamyEMU Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
Wow! Excellent write-up RussH!! Much appreciated.

Unfortunately, this sounds like it will be a tough game. Hoping Cid’s (and in a separate thread Bovine’s) prediction will hold true and the Cold will have a significant impact on the game.
12-17-2022 04:26 PM
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Jerry Weaver Offline
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RE: THE WEAKNESS OF A GOOD TEAM
(12-15-2022 01:21 PM)cidbearit Wrote:  
(12-15-2022 12:39 PM)RussH Wrote:  Two red-flags regarding the San Jose State offense:

1.) San Jose State — even including the number from Hawaii which nearly doubles their average — is running for 2 yards and change per carry in the back half of the season. From October 15th through November 19th, their O had a 5-week stretch where they carried the ball 122 times for 250 yards. On the year, they are in the basement as a rushing offense, ranking 124th out of 131 football teams in FBS, or, in other words, doing as well as a bunch of 3-9 teams (including Akron).

Below are the national rankings for each of San Jose State’s last 10 opponents, filtering for Rushing Defense.

Hawaii — 126
Utah State - 118
SDSU — 37
CSU — 87
Nevada — 88
Fresno State — 79
UNLV — 78
Wyoming — 67
WMU - 47
Auburn - 97

This averages out to right around where Eastern Michigan has settled on the year (82 of 131). FWIW, The Eagles would be ten spots higher if only using numbers after The Adjustment.

Point here being:

SJSU hasn’t been able to run the ball and it’s not like they’ve been playing Wisconsin.



2.) The Spartan opponent most similar to Eagles heart-and-soul All-American MVP Jose Ramirez — Fresno State’s Edge Rusher David Perales; First-Team All-MW; 10.5 sacks on the year— terrorized them a month and a half ago to the tune of 4 sacks and innumerable disruptions.

Who was trying to stop him? Are they playing in this bowl game?

Both of these points seem gigantic, the first one maybe more than the second (maybe)?

A team that can’t run the ball? In November?

That has to matter, doesn’t it?

Doesn’t it?

I’ll say this: the San Jose State Offense is terrifying on tape.

The QB, Cordeiro, is a total stud, they make almost zero mistakes — #1 in the country in turnovers — and they have a best-player-we’ll-see-this-year at WR. Cooks — #4 — is Top 20 in NCAA in yards per game and #11 in TDs. He’s a freak. The SJSU tape on YouTube is limited but click on any single one of those and wait for the play by Cook, because there is one. You won’t miss it.

Here’s a link to the Utah State game, queued up for Cooks' opening-drive, better-than-you TD: https://youtu.be/Zsa3NZfgBMw?t=241

They are an offense that punts with pleasure, protects the ball, and waits for their cats to spring. I don’t have the energy to corral the number of explosives but it’s gonna be huge. They flash like crazy. It’s a very good offense. Players everywhere. Cordeiro is terrifying — great feet, great arm, a swag that fills the stadium.

In a way, SJSU is in the CC mold — play complimentary football, take what they give you, zero out the mistakes, win on special teams, win in the red zone, generate turnovers — nothing flashy. Win the game.

But they can’t run the ball…?

Well so, here’s the thing: they don’t run that much (only two offenses in the country run less: Mississippi State and Old Dominion). And when they run with their premiere back — Kairee Robinson — they’ve been effective. He’s had 6 games averaging more than 5 yards a pop and in the Spartans' three blowout wins — Hawaii, UNLV, and Western Michigan — he ran for over 6 yards per carry.

Robinson only has 3 rushes over 20 yards on the year and none of them for more than 40 yards, so it’s not like they get a ton of explosives from him and while the WMU number scares me the most, a closer look perhaps reveals a strategy of doubling Cooks (who had his worst game of the season while their #2 receiver had his best). I wouldn’t do that and I hope the Eagles won’t either.

Which brings me back to A Strong Belief in the Game of Football: not being able to run the ball is a rot in the system. No way around that. The inability to run the ball has always been — and will forever be — a gigantic red flag for any football game anywhere but especially late-season football games, what with injuries piling up and hard, cold footballs, frigid environments, close games. Gotta run the ball.

Can San Jose State run the ball against the Eagles? Perhaps there is an argument to be made that — the numbers notwithstanding — the Spartans, when they want to, are perfectly capable of running the ball. There’s maybe some truth to that, but I would point to their numbers on stop downs (terrible on 3rd down; bad on 4th down) and specifically to their loss at Utah State for illustration: facing back-to-back stop downs (3rd and 1; 4th and 1) on a must-score drive (down 34-31, under 2 minutes to play), The Spartans tossed two incompletions.

Ballgame.

Will the Unnamed Spartan X have an easier time with Jose Ramirez than Unnamed Spartan X did with David Perales?

Can Cordeiro throw the Eagles D out of pressure in the quick game against straight up, in-your-face man coverage, never mind the penalties? Because that’s what I would do, if I’m putting on the hard hat and the headset.

If Shine can limit Cook (there will be no stopping him) — limit him to 1 TD, 2 explosives, something like that, I don’t care if Shine gets 15 PIs to do it — and we can play tough elsewhere, including keeping Robinson under 3ypc and forcing Cordeiro into quick-game success and run-for-your-life-explosives every now and then: fine, Eagles win 27-24.

If EMU can run the ball.

And we don’t turn it over.

And we don't turn it over.

And we don't turn it over.

For as good as our offense has looked — and boy has it been looking sharp — those early season interceptions over the middle against Louisiana and Arizona State sure loom large in a game like this. The Eagles are gonna need those plays to not happen.

Wouldn’t it be something for Powell to punctuate his remarkable season in a game like this? I’m not sure — with the exception of Shine and maybe Gunnar Oakes — there’s a single player I’m rooting for more. I think if Powell is able to play like he’s been playing, EMU wins another trophy.

If EMU can run the ball.

Because — against SJSU — not many teams have been able to.

Whispered into the end of this very long post: The Spartan defense is legit.

They are top 30 in most defensive categories (including Rush Defense), top 10 in sacks and TFL and red zone D, and held — for instance — Western Michigan to under 3ypc on 50 carries. The Spartans are extremely active on the DLine — a lot of twists and stunts — and play a rolling middle-open D that mostly plays zone but sprinkles in some man and combo coverage stuff, mostly on stop downs. I like the match up with what we do on offense (a lot of windows for crossing and sit-down seam stuff, deep seam opportunities, cushion for the quick game, delicious sideline pockets, all of this provided Powell knows what he’s looking at (and provided EMU can run the ball!).

I think the move from SJSU will be to sell out to stop Samson and bet on their good-but-not-Toledo secondary to win one-on-one matchups against Knue and co. I think that’s overall a good match-up for us in part because I believe our RPO game is strong and if we can stretch them with TE play — doesn’t this feel like a Paaske / Gunnar game? — we can get them into playing-catch up with personnel which has a habit of turning into tempo inside-zone with Samson, which is the friggin' best.

Anyway, this Eagles fan is clinging to the single weakness I can find on the Spartans and holding on for dear life. It’s gonna be a great game between two really good teams.

Go Eagles.

Great Summary!

For me the wildcard in this will be the cold, and how SJSU handles it. How will their QB and RB's cold hands work on a hard ball? Will their receivers be able to manage cold hard balls hitting their cold hands? Will their kickers be affected by the hardness of a cold ball? Overall, how will their team tolerate 3.5 hours standing in the cold on a hard field?

EMU has been practicing outside this week. The Eagles know what it's like to play in the cold. They will be acclimated to it when they step onto the field for their practices on Saturday and Sunday.

SJSU has been practicing in temps in the upper 50's to lower 60's. Not necessarily warm, but a far cry from the mid to upper 30's. When they step on the field Saturday and Sunday for their practices, learning to deal with the cold will challenge them.

I think the Eagles have a definite advantage here. it will definitely be interesting to see if the weather becomes a factor.

Great posts!
12-17-2022 05:02 PM
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